Each day full members here at Racing Trends receive detailed info covering an array of researched areas.
I do two messages. One for Flat Racing and the other for National Hunt.
Below you can see a sample of the flat message.
Flat Message for Thu 24 Feb 2011
COURSE FAVOURITE STATS
FLAT – this is a section looking at the stats for favourites at courses in certain race types
Kempton favourites
| Race type | Wins | Bets | SR (%) | Profit | ROI (%) | Race Times |
| 3yo handicaps | 95 | 323 | 29.4 | -£21.93 | -6.8 | 8.40 |
| 3yo+ maidens | 28 | 77 | 36.4 | -£10.08 | -13.1 | 6.10 |
| 3yo+/4yo+ handicaps | 283 | 1169 | 24.2 | -£132.40 | -11.3 | 5.40, 6.40, 7.40 |
Southwell favourites
| Race type | Wins | Bets | SR (%) | Profit | ROI (%) | Race Times |
| 3yo+ maidens | 78 | 169 | 46.2 | +£35.49 | +21.0 | 2.10 |
| 3yo+/4yo+ handicaps | 356 | 1273 | 28.0 | -£67.94 | -5.3 | 3.15, 4.20, 4.50, 5.20 |
FAVOURITE STATS – this is a section looking at the stats for favourites certain race types. These race types occur less often so the course favourite stats for such races would have fairly small samples – hence they have been grouped together to give you an overview.
| Race type | Wins | Bets | SR | Profit | ROI | Race Times |
| 3yo claimers | 138 | 391 | 35.3 | -£21.00 | -5.4 | Sout 3.45 |
| 3yo+/4yo+ claimers | 475 | 1432 | 33.2 | -£21.48 | -1.5 | Kemp 7.10 |
| 3yo+/4yo+ sellers | 321 | 1018 | 31.5 | +£29.07 | 2.9 | Sout 2.40 |
DRAW SECTION – the stats are collated from studying 10+ runner handicaps. Each race is split into three – a top third of the draw, a middle third of the draw and a bottom third of the draw.
| Course & distance (time) | Bottom third win % | Middle third win% | Top third win% |
| Kempton aw 7f (5.40, 7.40) | 22 | 38 | 40 |
| Kempton aw 6f (6.40) | 30 | 26 | 44 |
| Southwell aw 6f (4.20) | 38 | 33 | 28 |
| Southwell aw 7f (4.50) | 35 | 33 | 33 |
| Southwell aw 1m (5.20) | 26 | 38 | 36 |
Kempton aw 7f (5.40, 7.40) low draws struggle a little over this distance. High draws tend to have an advantage when the field size hits 13 runners or more.
Kempton aw 6f (6.40) high draws have a fair edge here but it is far less strong than over 5f.
POSITIVE STATS – (TRAINER / SIRE / DRAW) Please note – some are price** or going* dependent
6.10 Kempton – Caelis: R Beckett – all maiden races SR 17% ROI +57% (win & pl 39%)
7.10 Kempton – Roche Des Vents: R Hannon – 3yos in claimers SR 29% ROI +33% (win & pl 50%)
3.45 Southwell – Fantasy Fry: H Morrison at Southwell; male runners SR 25% ROI +35% (win & pl 50%)
NEGATIVE STATS – Please note – some are price** or going* dependent
6.10 Kempton – Savinien: Poor Sire Stat – Needwood Blade in maiden races; SR 4% ROI -64% (win & pl 13%)
6.10 Kempton – Savinien: Poor Sire Stat – Needwood Blade runners making debut; SR 0% ROI -100% (win & pl 7%) 5.20 Southwell – Westport: Poor Sire Stats – Xaar on the all weather; SR 8% ROI -43% (win & pl 21%)
POOR VALUE LAST TIME OUT WINNER – The idea is to find horses that won LTO that perform poorly in comparison to all LTO winners. The stats for all LTO winners in Flat races the strike rate (SR) is 16.2% and losses are -16.7%. These are my benchmarks.
3.15 Southwell – Luck Of The Draw: Poor LTO 1st stat – won LTO after break of 7 days or less; off track for 15+ days this time; aged 4+; SR 11% ROI -40% (win & pl 33%)
3.45 Southwell – So Is She: Poor LTO 1st stat – females that won seller LTO; off track for more than 3 weeks; SR 8% ROI -57% (win & pl 23%)
PACE INFORMATION
| Course | Leaders % (win) | Prominent / chased leaders % (win) | Hold up / behind % (win) |
| Kempton aw 7f handicap (5.40, 7.40) | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Kempton aw 7f non handicap (6.10) | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Kempton aw 6f handicap (6.40) | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Kempton aw 6f non handicap (7.10) | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Kempton aw 1m handicap (8.40) | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Southwell aw 6f non handicap (3.45) | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| Southwell aw 6f handicap (4.20) | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| Southwell aw 7f handicap (4.50) | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Southwell aw 1m handicap (5.20) | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
Kempton aw 1m handicap (8.40) – Front runners do best but the bias is not strong enough to ‘play’. There are not enough pace figures for this race so it would be an in-running play only
Southwell aw 6f non handicap (3.45) – A bias to front runners in this race type over this C&D. However, this looks more an ‘in running’ play than a pre race one.
Southwell aw 6f handicap (4.20) – The bias is not as strong as it is at 5f, but front runners do have a good edge.
Here are the ratings for this race:
Mark Anthony 4.3
Beckermet 4.0
Ace of Spies 3.8
Desert Falls 3.8
Besty 3.5
Takajan 3.5
Interchoice Star 3.2
Durham Express 2.4
Where’s Reiley 2.2
Prince James 2.2
Conclusion – difficult to be confident who will lead here. Horses mentioned in 2 or more sections – none
RECENT TRAINER FORM – FLAT (last 14 days exc. Wednesday) – in strike rate order
| Name | Wins | Runs | Strike rate (%) | Placed | Win & Placed | Win & Placed % | Engagements |
| Sir Mark Prescott Bt | 1 | 1 | 100.0 | 0 | 1 | 100.0 | Sout 3.15 |
| Michael Wigham | 5 | 9 | 55.6 | 1 | 6 | 66.7 | Kemp 7.10, Kemp 8.40 |
| Michael Herrington | 1 | 2 | 50.0 | 0 | 1 | 50.0 | Sout 4.50 |
| Paul D’Arcy | 2 | 4 | 50.0 | 1 | 3 | 75.0 | Kemp 6.10 |
| Richard Hannon | 5 | 13 | 38.5 | 0 | 5 | 38.5 | Kemp 7.10 |
| Andrew Balding | 1 | 3 | 33.3 | 0 | 1 | 33.3 | Kemp 6.10 |
| Garry Woodward | 1 | 3 | 33.3 | 0 | 1 | 33.3 | Kemp 7.40 |
| Gay Kelleway | 1 | 3 | 33.3 | 1 | 2 | 66.7 | Kemp 8.10 |
| Michael Attwater | 2 | 6 | 33.3 | 0 | 2 | 33.3 | Kemp 5.40 |
| Michael Scudamore | 2 | 6 | 33.3 | 1 | 3 | 50.0 | Kemp 6.40 |
| Kevin Ryan | 5 | 17 | 29.4 | 2 | 7 | 41.2 | Sout 2.10, Sout 3.15, Sout 4.20 |
| Mark Brisbourne | 3 | 11 | 27.3 | 1 | 4 | 36.4 | Kemp 6.40, Sout 4.20 |
| Alan Bailey | 2 | 8 | 25.0 | 0 | 2 | 25.0 | Kemp 7.40, Sout 3.45 |
| Hughie Morrison | 1 | 4 | 25.0 | 1 | 2 | 50.0 | Sout 3.45 |
| Michael Chapman | 1 | 4 | 25.0 | 1 | 2 | 50.0 | Sout 2.10, Sout 3.45 |
| Reg Hollinshead | 2 | 9 | 22.2 | 1 | 3 | 33.3 | Sout 2.10 |
| David Barron | 2 | 10 | 20.0 | 2 | 4 | 40.0 | Sout 4.20, Sout 4.50 |
| Desmond Donovan | 1 | 5 | 20.0 | 0 | 1 | 20.0 | Kemp 7.40 |
| Noel Quinlan | 1 | 5 | 20.0 | 0 | 1 | 20.0 | Kemp 6.10, Kemp 7.40, Kemp 8.40 |
| Richard Fahey | 3 | 15 | 20.0 | 2 | 5 | 33.3 | Kemp 7.10 |
| Rod Millman | 1 | 5 | 20.0 | 2 | 3 | 60.0 | Kemp 7.40 |
| Roy Brotherton | 1 | 5 | 20.0 | 1 | 2 | 40.0 | Sout 2.10 |
| Alan McCabe | 5 | 30 | 16.7 | 5 | 10 | 33.3 | Sout 2.10, Sout 3.45, Sout 4.50 |
| Jim Boyle | 3 | 20 | 15.0 | 2 | 5 | 25.0 | Kemp 5.40 |
| Bill Ratcliffe | 1 | 7 | 14.3 | 1 | 2 | 28.6 | Sout 2.40, Sout 4.50 |
| Bill Turner | 1 | 7 | 14.3 | 2 | 3 | 42.9 | Kemp 7.40 |
| J R Jenkins | 1 | 7 | 14.3 | 0 | 1 | 14.3 | Sout 2.40 |
| Jeremy Gask | 1 | 7 | 14.3 | 1 | 2 | 28.6 | Kemp 6.10 |
| Michael Easterby | 1 | 7 | 14.3 | 3 | 4 | 57.1 | Sout 4.20, Sout 4.50 |
| Derek Shaw | 1 | 8 | 12.5 | 3 | 4 | 50.0 | Sout 2.10 |
| Richard Guest | 3 | 25 | 12.0 | 5 | 8 | 32.0 | Kemp 6.40, Sout 3.45, Sout 4.50, Sout 5.20 |
| David Elsworth | 1 | 9 | 11.1 | 1 | 2 | 22.2 | Kemp 6.10 |
| Brian Ellison | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 3 | 4 | 40.0 | Sout 2.40, Sout 5.20 |
| Jane Chapple-Hyam | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 6 | 8 | 40.0 | Kemp 5.40, Kemp 6.40, Kemp 7.40 |
| Mark Usher | 1 | 11 | 9.1 | 3 | 4 | 36.4 | Sout 3.15 |
| Mark Johnston | 2 | 23 | 8.7 | 6 | 8 | 34.8 | Kemp 8.10, Kemp 8.40 |
| Ronald Harris | 2 | 23 | 8.7 | 1 | 3 | 13.0 | Sout 3.45, Sout 4.50 |
| David Evans | 2 | 25 | 8.0 | 5 | 7 | 28.0 | Kemp 6.10, Kemp 6.40, Kemp 7.10 |
| Tony Carroll | 2 | 27 | 7.4 | 5 | 7 | 25.9 | Kemp 5.40, Kemp 6.40, Kemp 7.40, Kemp 8.10, Kemp 8.40 |
| Bryan Smart | 1 | 18 | 5.6 | 7 | 8 | 44.4 | Sout 4.20, Sout 4.50, Sout 5.20 |
| Conor Dore | 0 | 15 | 0.0 | 3 | 3 | 20.0 | Kemp 7.10, Sout 2.40, Sout 4.20 |
| Dean Ivory | 0 | 8 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 12.5 | Kemp 5.40, Kemp 8.40 |
| Jo Crowley | 0 | 6 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 16.7 | Kemp 7.40 |
| John Akehurst | 0 | 6 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 16.7 | Kemp 5.40 |
| John Bridger | 0 | 12 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 8.3 | Kemp 6.40 |
| John Mackie | 0 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 25.0 | Sout 3.15 |
| Jonathan Portman | 0 | 5 | 0.0 | 3 | 3 | 60.0 | Kemp 5.40 |
| Michael Appleby | 0 | 6 | 0.0 | 3 | 3 | 50.0 | Kemp 5.40, Kemp 6.40 |
| Michael Dods | 0 | 5 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 20.0 | Sout 4.20 |
| Michael Madgwick | 0 | 5 | 0.0 | 3 | 3 | 60.0 | Kemp 6.10 |
| Michael Quinn | 0 | 5 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 | 40.0 | Sout 4.50 |
| Peter Hiatt | 0 | 8 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 | 25.0 | Kemp 7.40, Sout 3.15 |
| Ruth Carr | 0 | 13 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 7.7 | Sout 4.20, Sout 5.20 |
| Willie Musson | 0 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | Sout 4.50 |
COURSE TRAINER STATS FLAT
Kempton trainer stats ALL RACES 2006 – Tuesday (ordered by strike rate – min 3 runs or 1 win)
| Trainer | Wins | Runs | Strike Rate (%) | Profit | ROI (%) | Engagements |
| Garry Woodward | 2 | 7 | 28.6 | +£9.00 | +128.6 | 7.40 |
| Jane Chapple-Hyam | 30 | 142 | 21.1 | +£48.19 | +33.9 | 5.40, 6.40, 7.40 |
| R M Beckett | 30 | 172 | 17.4 | +£20.83 | +12.1 | 6.10 |
| Andrew Balding | 55 | 327 | 16.8 | +£13.67 | +4.2 | 6.10 |
| Mark Johnston | 51 | 330 | 15.5 | -£78.38 | -23.8 | 8.10, 8.40 |
| Michael Scudamore | 3 | 20 | 15.0 | -£4.40 | -22.0 | 6.40 |
| Michael Wigham | 16 | 109 | 14.7 | -£27.45 | -25.2 | 7.10, 8.40 |
| Peter Hiatt | 18 | 131 | 13.7 | +£49.43 | +37.7 | 7.40 |
| Richard Hannon | 93 | 729 | 12.8 | -£238.16 | -32.7 | 7.10 |
| Robert Cowell | 11 | 87 | 12.6 | +£51.25 | +58.9 | 6.40 |
| David Elsworth | 19 | 152 | 12.5 | -£7.54 | -5.0 | 6.10 |
| Jeremy Gask | 16 | 130 | 12.3 | -£28.50 | -21.9 | 6.10 |
| Tony Carroll | 48 | 410 | 11.7 | -£49.38 | -12.0 | 5.40, 6.40, 7.40, 8.10, 8.40 |
| Jim Boyle | 43 | 379 | 11.4 | -£39.74 | -10.5 | 5.40 |
| John Akehurst | 19 | 170 | 11.2 | -£10.80 | -6.4 | 5.40 |
| Patrick Gilligan | 3 | 27 | 11.1 | +£12.00 | +44.4 | 6.40 |
| Rod Millman | 15 | 136 | 11.0 | -£11.38 | -8.4 | 7.40 |
| Dean Ivory | 34 | 309 | 11.0 | +£19.00 | +6.1 | 5.40, 8.40 |
| Gay Kelleway | 17 | 156 | 10.9 | -£46.88 | -30.0 | 8.10 |
| William Knight | 11 | 113 | 9.7 | -£34.94 | -30.9 | 7.40 |
| Richard Guest | 7 | 72 | 9.7 | -£10.00 | -13.9 | 6.40 |
| Jo Crowley | 7 | 74 | 9.5 | +£21.75 | +29.4 | 7.40 |
| David Evans | 33 | 360 | 9.2 | -£122.23 | -34.0 | 6.10, 6.40, 7.10 |
| Alan Bailey | 5 | 57 | 8.8 | -£28.25 | -49.6 | 7.40 |
| Desmond Donovan | 2 | 23 | 8.7 | £0.00 | +0.0 | 7.40 |
| Bill Turner | 5 | 61 | 8.2 | -£25.14 | -41.2 | 7.40 |
| Steve Gollings | 4 | 49 | 8.2 | -£18.00 | -36.7 | 8.10 |
| John Ryan | 8 | 105 | 7.6 | -£51.92 | -49.4 | 6.40 |
| Luke Dace | 5 | 69 | 7.3 | +£4.50 | +6.5 | 7.40 |
| Michael Attwater | 17 | 263 | 6.5 | -£129.17 | -49.1 | 5.40 |
| Richard Fahey | 7 | 128 | 5.5 | -£78.75 | -61.5 | 7.10 |
| John Bridger | 19 | 383 | 5.0 | -£183.13 | -47.8 | 6.40 |
| Mark Brisbourne | 5 | 108 | 4.6 | -£70.50 | -65.3 | 6.40 |
| Jonathan Portman | 4 | 95 | 4.2 | -£39.50 | -41.6 | 5.40 |
| Michael Squance | 1 | 24 | 4.2 | -£11.00 | -45.8 | 7.40 |
| Linda Jewell | 3 | 73 | 4.1 | -£18.00 | -24.7 | 5.40, 6.10 |
| John E Long | 2 | 51 | 3.9 | -£35.00 | -68.6 | 5.40, 6.10 |
| Conor Dore | 5 | 152 | 3.3 | -£102.75 | -67.6 | 7.10 |
| Paul D’Arcy | 2 | 61 | 3.3 | -£45.00 | -73.8 | 6.10 |
| Tim McCarthy | 1 | 97 | 1.0 | -£82.00 | -84.5 | 5.40 |
Southwell trainer stats ALL RACES 2006 – Tuesday (ordered by strike rate – min 3 runs or 1 win)
| Trainer | Wins | Runs | Strike Rate (%) | Profit | ROI (%) | Engagements |
| Hughie Morrison | 34 | 157 | 21.7 | +£29.85 | +19.0 | 3.45 |
| Brian Ellison | 40 | 188 | 21.3 | +£27.77 | +14.8 | 2.40, 5.20 |
| Sir Mark Prescott Bt | 27 | 135 | 20.0 | -£43.84 | -32.5 | 3.15 |
| Kevin M Prendergast | 2 | 10 | 20.0 | +£0.25 | +2.5 | 2.40, 4.50 |
| David Barron | 53 | 266 | 19.9 | +£73.76 | +27.7 | 4.20, 4.50 |
| Alan Bailey | 19 | 106 | 17.9 | -£2.28 | -2.1 | 3.45 |
| Michael Dods | 10 | 65 | 15.4 | -£14.47 | -22.3 | 4.20 |
| Kevin Ryan | 62 | 410 | 15.1 | -£117.67 | -28.7 | 2.10, 3.15, 4.20 |
| Michael Herrington | 3 | 21 | 14.3 | -£7.50 | -35.7 | 4.50 |
| Chris Wall | 1 | 7 | 14.3 | +£2.00 | +28.6 | 4.50 |
| Bryan Smart | 38 | 281 | 13.5 | -£24.28 | -8.6 | 4.20, 4.50, 5.20 |
| Peter Hiatt | 28 | 208 | 13.5 | +£1.57 | +0.8 | 3.15 |
| Dave Morris | 11 | 82 | 13.4 | -£1.07 | -1.3 | 5.20 |
| Richard Price | 9 | 74 | 12.2 | -£6.50 | -8.8 | 5.20 |
| J R Jenkins | 17 | 142 | 12.0 | -£30.37 | -21.4 | 2.40 |
| Michael Quinn | 8 | 68 | 11.8 | -£3.17 | -4.7 | 4.50 |
| Conor Dore | 22 | 190 | 11.6 | -£62.50 | -32.9 | 2.40, 4.20 |
| Ronald Harris | 33 | 291 | 11.3 | -£25.64 | -8.8 | 3.45, 4.50 |
| Bill Ratcliffe | 12 | 108 | 11.1 | -£33.26 | -30.8 | 2.40, 4.50 |
| Reg Hollinshead | 26 | 239 | 10.9 | +£15.15 | +6.3 | 2.10 |
| Ray Peacock | 4 | 37 | 10.8 | -£6.00 | -16.2 | 4.20 |
| Michael Easterby | 26 | 246 | 10.6 | -£77.83 | -31.6 | 4.20, 4.50 |
| Mark Usher | 12 | 117 | 10.3 | -£38.40 | -32.8 | 3.15 |
| Alan McCabe | 45 | 461 | 9.8 | -£163.14 | -35.4 | 2.10, 3.45, 4.50 |
| Roy Brotherton | 14 | 147 | 9.5 | -£29.17 | -19.8 | 2.10 |
| John Mackie | 5 | 53 | 9.4 | -£18.00 | -34.0 | 3.15 |
| Tim Easterby | 12 | 128 | 9.4 | -£25.88 | -20.2 | 2.10 |
| Mark Brisbourne | 10 | 108 | 9.3 | -£51.75 | -47.9 | 4.20 |
| Ollie Pears | 5 | 62 | 8.1 | -£43.10 | -69.5 | 2.10 |
| John Harris | 19 | 241 | 7.9 | -£114.57 | -47.5 | 2.40, 5.20 |
| Derek Shaw | 22 | 299 | 7.4 | -£41.25 | -13.8 | 2.10 |
| Richard Whitaker | 5 | 70 | 7.1 | -£24.50 | -35.0 | 4.20, 4.50, 5.20 |
| Willie Musson | 2 | 28 | 7.1 | -£18.13 | -64.7 | 4.50 |
| Aytach Sadik | 3 | 43 | 7.0 | -£3.00 | -7.0 | 3.15 |
| Richard Guest | 13 | 190 | 6.8 | +£25.08 | +13.2 | 3.45, 4.50, 5.20 |
| Robin Bastiman | 8 | 118 | 6.8 | -£75.00 | -63.6 | 5.20 |
| Nikki Evans | 1 | 15 | 6.7 | -£12.00 | -80.0 | 2.10 |
| Ray Craggs | 2 | 42 | 4.8 | -£20.00 | -47.6 | 5.20 |
| Robert Johnson | 2 | 44 | 4.6 | -£26.00 | -59.1 | 2.40 |
| Ruth Carr | 8 | 188 | 4.3 | -£142.20 | -75.6 | 4.20, 5.20 |
| Michael Chapman | 14 | 343 | 4.1 | -£106.25 | -31.0 | 2.10, 3.45 |
