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HAYDOCK (SATURDAY) -10 YEAR BIG RACE TRENDS

Saturday, May 21st, 2011 at 9:39 am  
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The trends and statistics are based on the last 10 years. All profits and losses are quoted using £1 win stakes. ROI stands for return on investment; LTO stands for last time out; SR stands for strike rate.

2.30 Silver Bowl – 1 mile handicap (3yo, class 2) – Haydock

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): 4 wins from 11 for a profit of £3.33 (ROI +30.3%).
Market: All of the last 10 races have been won by horses from the top 3 of the betting.
Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 6/1 or shorter.
Position LTO: 7 of the last 15 winners finished 1st or 2nd LTO.
Career starts: Horses that had raced just 3 times previously in their careers have won 6 of the last 10 races from only 25 runners.
Trainers: Sir Michael Stoute and Gerald Butler have saddled 2 winners each.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 13/2 or bigger have produced 0 wins from 117 runners.
Days since last run: Horses that have been off the track for 2 weeks or less have provided just 2 winners from 49 for a loss of £37.50 (ROI -76.5%).
Beaten distance LTO: Horses that were beaten 4 or more lengths LTO have provided just 2 winners from 53 for a loss of £44.17 (ROI -83.3%).
Career starts: Horses that have raced 5 times or more in their careers have won just 2 races from 94 qualifiers for a loss of £84.67 (ROI -90.1%).

GENERAL STATS

Sex of horse: Male runners have provided 9 winners from 123 (SR 7.3%); female runners have provided 1 winner from 17 (SR 5.9%).
Trends analysis: It has been best to focus on the top 3 of the betting which is surprising given the fact that this is a handicap and that the average number of runners has been 14. A decent run LTO is a plus, but a very recent run (within 2 weeks) is not. Finally lightly raced horses that have run 3 times in their careers have an excellent record – 60% of winners from just 18% of the total number of runners.

3.00 Temple Stakes – 5f (3yo+, Group 2) – Haydock

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): 4 wins from 14 for a small profit of £1.08 (ROI +7.7%).
Market: 8 of the last 10 winners came from the top 4 in the betting.
Recent wins: 9 of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last four starts.
Price: 8 of the last 10 winners have been priced 15/2 or shorter.
Course LTO: Horses that raced at Newmarket LTO have provided 5 of the last 10 winners.
Position LTO: Horses that finished in the first 4 LTO have provided 8 of the last 10 winners.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Beaten distance LTO: Horses that were beaten 3 or more lengths LTO have provided just 1 winner from 40.

GENERAL STATS

Sex: Fillies and mares have won 5 races from 25 (SR 20.0%); colts and geldings have won 5 races from 78 runners (SR 6.4%).
Days since last run: Horses that have been off the track for 4 weeks or less have won 6 races from 70 (SR 8.6%); horses off the track for more than 4 weeks have won 4 races from 33 (SR 12.1%).
Age: 3 year olds have provided 2 winners from 17 (SR 11.8%); 4 year olds have provided 3 winners from 20 (SR 15.0%); 5 year olds have provided 3 winners from 26 (SR 11.5%); 6 year old plus have provided 2 winners from 40 (SR 5.0%).
Trends analysis: A good starting point is to look for horses that have won at least once in their last four starts. From there, preference would be for horses priced 15/2 and shorter as generally the market has held sway. Females have outperformed their male counterparts with the same number of winners from less than half of the runners. Age wise it looks best to avoid horses aged 6 or older, while horses beaten by 3 lengths or more on their most recent start also look worth swerving.

3.30 Betfred The Bonus King Stakes – 6f (3yo+, Listed) – Haydock

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 8 of the last 10 winners came from the top 4 in the betting.
Market LTO: Horses that were first or second favourite LTO have produced 5 winners from 26 for a profit of £10.90 (ROI +41.9%).
Price: 9 of the last 10 winners have been priced 11/1 or lower.
Career runs: 8 of the last 10 winners had raced less than 10 times in their careers.
Position LTO: Horses that won LTO have provided 4 winners from just 13 qualifiers for a profit of £22.00 (ROI +169.2%).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 12/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 59 qualifiers for a loss of £42.00 (ROI -71.2%).
Days since last run: Horses that have been off the track for 2 weeks or less have provided just 1 winner from 37 for a loss of £28.00 (ROI -75.7%).
Beaten distance LTO: Horses that were beaten 3 or more lengths LTO have provided just 3 winners from 65 for a loss of £39.10 (ROI -60.2%).
Race type LTO: Horses that raced in a handicap LTO have provided 0 winners from 26 (only 3 have placed).
Headgear: Horses wearing any type of headgear (blinkers, visor, hood, tongue tie, cheekpieces) have provided 0 winners from 18.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 3 wins from 10 for a small loss of £1.35 (ROI -13.5%).
Age: 3 year olds have provided 5 winners from 49 (SR 11.1%); 4 year olds have provided 3 winners from 32 (SR 9.4%); 5 year olds have provided 2 winners from 20 (SR 10%); 6 year old plus have provided 0 winners from 10 (SR 0%).
Trends analysis: The market has been a fairly good guide with only 1 winner from 59 priced 12/1 or bigger. It is also worth focusing on more lightly raced runners – 80% of the winners have had less than 10 career starts and they have provided under half of the total runners in the race. LTO winners are rare but they have won 40% of the races so any qualifier would require close scrutiny. There are plenty of negatives – horses returning to the track within 2 weeks have performed poorly as have horses with headgear and horses that ran in a handicap LTO.

Updated Lays Spreadsheet

Wednesday, May 11th, 2011 at 5:33 pm  
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Updated Lays Spreadsheet

I have just updated the long term spreadsheet for the lays.
It includes results from when Betfair first introduced BSP untill the end of yesterday.

See http://www.racingtrends.co.uk/download/rt-lays.xls

For those of you who might be interested in following them my own quick thoughts are as follows.

The first decision branch you should decide on for your own personal strategy
might be the method of staking or bank management.

With the fixed liability approach for example you lose no more laying a winning
10/1 horse than you would do a winning even money horse.

As such paying heed to a maximum BSP cut of limit is of less critical importance.

If however you go down the route of accepting from a Betfair user a fixed stake
irrespective of what odds are being laid , then put much more focus on bank protection
from a rogue big priced winner by adopting in your strategy a maximum BSP limit.
MAX BSP can be input into Betfair when you make a lay.

Bank staking percentages etc.
To some degree these are a measure of your personal outlook on aggression versus protection.
The spreadsheet is set at a default 5% across the board but those are not the values to churn out maximum past bank growth.
Optimum staking % values are actually more aggressive than 5% and in the spreadsheet at least will give
much bigger profit values than the default settings do. These optimum % values are noted in the spreadsheet for your info.

My own personal call on such things however is to assume the future will be worse than the past and in staking terms that means being a little
less aggressive than a historic spreadsheet suggests.
Some of you with bigger cajones than my good self however might choose to move more towards the optimum % values
based on 3000 odd past selections and accept a more up and down roller coaster ride of bank ups and downs.

Increased aggression is also likely more acceptable on a small sacrificial bank.
eg Say for example you have £100 you want to bet up aggressively to £500 or £1000 and then perhaps cash out and reset.
One completion of series will pay for several total busts.
Total busting of course becomes more likely the more aggressive you stake.

Whether betting or laying staking aggression goes beyond mathematical theory.
How you react as a human ( and we are all different ) plays a key role as well.

Note that the selections produce good long term profits laying to place as well as to win.
My suggestion if you plan to attack them on both fronts is to consider the use of two separate banks.
One for win. One for place.
BSP price limits can be pre set for each individually.
Similar with % bank etc.
You will most likely also note long odds horses you might choose to duck laying to win
but might be happy to take on for a place at shorter odds.

Anyhow enough for now.
The spreadsheet is worth examination and will permit you to play with settings to research something to suit yourself personally.

As Dave mentioned earlier it would be good to hear your own thoughts and ideas on how best to take advantage
of all the research he has done into these lay selections.

Best wishes
Mick
Site Admin

www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Positive trainer stats for Friday

Friday, May 6th, 2011 at 12:13 pm  
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POSITIVE STATS – (TRAINER / SIRE / DRAW)

Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

5.20 Ascot – Above All **: W Haggas – horses off track for 11+ weeks; top 3 of the betting SR 36%; ROI +42% (win & pl 60%)

5.50 Ascot – Coeus **: Sir M Prescott – May to August; handicaps; must be top 5 of the betting; 21 days or less off the traack; SR 42%; ROI +23% (win & pl 67%)

6.25 Ascot – Parvana: W Haggas turf races only; 3yos first run of the season in a maiden race; (not career debut) SR 31% ROI +62% (win & pl 55%)

7.00 Ascot – Karuga **: R Hannon – 2yo maidens in April / May; must be top 2 of the betting SR 38.3% ROI +26% (win & pl 69%)

7.00 Ascot – Miss Astragal **: R Hannon – 2yo maidens in April / May; must be top 2 of the betting SR 38.3% ROI +26% (win & pl 69%)

8.10 Ascot – Taajub **: W Haggas – horses off track for 11+ weeks; top 3 of the betting SR 36%; ROI +42% (win & pl 60%)

2.55 Chester – Harris Tweed **: W Haggas – horses off track for 11+ weeks; top 3 of the betting SR 36%; ROI +42% (win & pl 60%)

4.05 Chester – Elmaam: W Haggas turf races only; 3yos first run of the season in a maiden race; (not career debut) SR 31% ROI +62% (win & pl 55%)

1.55 Nottingham – Fairy Moss **: R Hannon – 2yo maidens in April / May; must be top 2 of the betting SR 38.3% ROI +26% (win & pl 69%)

3.05 Nottingham – Birdwatcher: M Johnston – 3yos in turf handicaps of 1m4f+; class 3 or lower; SR 21% ROI +38% (win & pl 43%)

7.50 Ripon – Pearl Storm: W Haggas turf races only; 3yos first run of the season in a maiden race; (not career debut) SR 31% ROI +62% (win & pl 55%)

Big race 10 year trends for Chester (Weds)

Wednesday, May 4th, 2011 at 10:59 am  
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Weds 2.20 Chester – Cheshire Oaks – Listed (1m 3½f) 3yo fillies

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites(inc. joints): 7 wins from 11 for a profit of £11.75 (ROI +106.8%).
Draw: 8 of the last 10 winners have been drawn in the bottom 4 stalls.
Career runs: All of the last 10 winners have raced 4 or fewer times in their careers.
Race type LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners ran in a maiden LTO.
Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd LTO.
Price LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners were priced 5/2 or shorter LTO.
Trainers: 2 wins each for Aidan O’Brien and Marcus Tregoning.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 10/1 or bigger have produced just 1 winner from 40 qualifiers for a loss of £25.00 (ROI -62.5%).
Days off track: Horses returning to the track after a break of 6 weeks or more have produced just 1 winner from 33 for a loss of £29.75 (ROI -90.2%).
Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten 4 lengths or more LTO have provided just 1 winner from 25 for a loss of £20.50 (ROI -82.0%).
Course LTO: Horses that raced at Newmarket LTO have provided 0 winners from 16.
Draw: Horses drawn 7 or higher have provided 0 winners from 23.

GENERAL STATS

Distance LTO: Horses that raced over 10f or more LTO have provided 6 winners from 32 (SR 18.8%); horses that raced over 9f or less LTO have provided 4 winners from 50 (SR 8.0%).
Trends analysis: Some solid trends here – favourites have an excellent record, while the draw has been important with 8 of the 10 winners drawn 4 or lower. One should eliminate any horse that has run more than 4 times in their career and take note of any runners that ran in a maiden LTO. LTO form has been important with LTO winners and runners up providing 80% of the winners.

Weds 3.30 Chester – Stellar Group  handicap class 2 (5f) 4yo+

POSITIVE TRENDS

Draw: The six lowest drawn horses have won 9 of the last 10 races. These runners have made up 44% of all the runners, but produced 90% of the winners.
Market: Horses 3rd to 6th in the betting have provided 6 winners. Backing all such qualifiers would have produced a profit of £18.00 (ROI +42.9%).
Price: 9 of the last 11 winners have been priced between 11/2 and 16/1.
Running style: 8 of the last 10 winners raced up with or close to the pace, with 5 runners “making all”.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): 1 win from 11 for a loss of £7.25 (ROI -65.9%).
Draw: There have been 57 horses drawn 9 or higher and all have lost. Indeed only 1 of them has managed to place.
Position LTO: 15 horses have come into the race having won LTO but all have been beaten.
Market LTO: Horses from the top 4 of the betting LTO have 0 winners from 46.
Price: Horses priced 20/1 or bigger have produced 0 wins from 53 runners.
Class LTO: 17 horses raced in class 4 or lower LTO and all have lost.

GENERAL STATS

Age: 4yos have won 2 races from 36 qualifiers (SR 5.6%) 5yos have won 3 races from 39 qualifiers (SR 7.7%); 6yos have won 2 races from 28 (SR 7.1%); 7yo+ have won 3 from 34 (SR 8.8%).

Trends analysis: This race is a race with some good trends both positive and negative. The draw at Chester is very well documented, but over 5f it is extremely important and the 6 lowest draws have dominated this contest over the past 10 years. Hence you need to focus on these draws ideally with a horse that is likely to lead or race very close to the pace. Price wise, outsiders priced 20/1 or bigger have a poor record, while at the other end of the spectrum favourites have performed below expectations. In terms of age there seems no clear bias.

BIG RACE TRENDS FOR NEWMARKET

Friday, April 29th, 2011 at 7:03 pm  
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Saturday 3.10 Newmarket – 2000 Guineas – 1m Group 1 (3yo)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 5 of the last 10 winners came from second to fourth in the betting. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £10.50 (ROI +33.9%).
Last time out winners: 8 of the last 10 winners won LTO.
Price: 7 of the last 10 winners have been priced between 9/2 and 11/1. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £23.50 (ROI +60.3%).
Seasonal debut: 7 of the last 10 winners were making their seasonal debut.
Price LTO: All of the 10 winners were priced 13/2 or shorter LTO (8 of the 10 were priced 100/30 or shorter).
Draw: The draw figures have now been reversed so the lowest draws are now best (the lowest 6 draws providing 6 of the last 10 winners).
Trainers: Aidan O’Brien has won the race 4 times albeit from 25 runners.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites: 1 wins from 10 for a loss of £7.50 (ROI -75%).
Breeding: American breds have provided just 1 winner and 1 placed from 39 runners.
Front runners: 15 horses have led early or disputed the lead early and all have been beaten.
Position LTO: Horses that finished 2nd or worse LTO have provided just 2 winners from 106 runners for a loss of £77.50 (ROI -73.1%).
Price: Horses priced 40/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 74 runners (4 placed).

GENERAL STATS

Course winners: Course winners have won 3 races from 64 (SR 4.7%); non course winners have won 7 races from 116 (SR 6%).
Trends analysis: In general this has been a market driven race although favourites have had a very poor record over the past 10 years (this is true if you go back 20 years). Horses 2nd to 4th in the betting have proved the most successful and indeed profitable. Last time out winners have a good record and you should focus on these runners – they have won 80% of the races from around 40% of the total runners. Meanwhile horses making their seasonal debut are around 3 times more likely to win than horses that have already run this year (wins to runs ratio). American breds have a poor record and look best avoided.

Saturday 3.45 Newmarket – Palace House Stakes – 5f Group 3 (3yo+)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): 4 wins from 10 for a profit of £1.50 (ROI +12.5%).
Market position: 7 of the last 10 winners came from the top 4 of the betting.
Price: Horses priced 15/2 or shorter have produced 8 of the last 10 winners.
Position LTO: Horses that won LTO have provided 6 of the last 10 winners. That equates to 60% of the races from which they have provided just 27% of the total runners.
Class LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners raced in a class 1 contest (Listed or Group) LTO.
Trainers: Henry Candy has saddled 2 winners from just 3 runners (Kyllachy and Amour Propre).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Race LTO: Horses that raced in a handicap LTO have provided just 1 winner from 24 for a loss of £21.00 (ROI -87.5%).
Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten by more than 3 lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 46 qualifiers.

GENERAL STATS

Age: 3yos have won 3 races from 15 qualifiers (SR 20%); 4yos have won 1 race from 36 qualifiers (SR 2.8%); 5yos have won 5 races from 29 qualifiers (SR 17.2%); 6yos+ have won 1 race from 52 qualifiers (SR 1.9%).
Course LTO: Horses that raced at Newmarket or Ascot LTO have provided 6 winners from 48 (SR 12.5%); horses that raced at all other courses have provided 4 winners from 84 (SR 4.8%).
Sex of horse: Male runners have won 9 races from 116 runners (SR 7.8%); female runners have won 1 race from 16 (SR 6.3%).
Trends analysis: Horses priced 15/2 or shorter in the betting is a potential starting point for your analysis with preference for LTO winners. It looks best to ignore horses that were beaten by more than 3 lengths LTO and any horse that ran in a handicap LTO. Another negative involves horses aged 6 or older – they have a poor record.

Sunday 3.15 Newmarket – 1000 Guineas – 1m Group 1 (3yo)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): 3 wins from 10 for a profit of £1.50 (ROI +15%).
Market: All of the last 10 winners came from the top 7 in the betting.
Price: 6 of the last 10 winners have been priced between 10/1 and 20/1. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £33.00 (ROI +63.5%).
Position LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners won LTO.
Class LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners raced in a Group race LTO.
Course LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners raced LTO at Newmarket.
Seasonal debut: 8 of the last 10 winners were making their seasonal debut.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market position: Horses 8th or bigger in the betting market have provided 0 winners from 91 runners.
Price: Horses priced 25/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 71 runners.
Course LTO: Horses that raced at Newbury LTO have provided 0 winners from 30 (2 placed).
Distance beaten LTO: Horses that were beaten more than a length LTO have provided just 1 winner from 56.

GENERAL STATS

Distance LTO: Horses that raced over 6f LTO have won 4 races from 28 (SR 14.3%); horses that raced over 7f LTO have won 5 races from 94 (SR 5.3%); horses that raced over 1 mile or more LTO have won 1 race from 45 (SR 2.2%).
Trends analysis: In general the market has been a fairly good guide with favourites actually showing a profit. Indeed, all of the last 10 winners have been from the top 7 in the betting. LTO winners have done well in the recent past, while it has been a positive to have run in Group company LTO. Runners who raced at Newmarket LTO also have a decent record in comparison to the other tracks combined.

10 year trends – Saturday (Sandown)

Friday, April 22nd, 2011 at 4:38 pm  
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Saturday

4.20 Sandown – Bet365 Gordon Richards Stakes – 1m2f Group 3 (4yo+)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: Second and third favourites have combined to win 5 races showing a small profit of £3.08 (ROI +14%).
Price: 9 of the last 10 winners have been priced 13/2 or shorter.
Days since last run: 8 of the llast 10 winners had been off the track for 5 months or more.
Market position LTO: Horses that started first or second favourite LTO have provided 7 of the last 10 winners.
Course LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners ran at a Grade 1 track LTO.
Breeding: Irish breds have won 6 of the last 10 renewals – they equates to winning 60% of the races from under 35% of the total runners.
Trainers: Sir Michael Stoute has won the race 3 times in the last 10 years – in fact he has won the last 3 renewals.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market position: Horses 6th or bigger in the betting market have provided 0 winners from 24 runners.
Position LTO: Last time out winners have provided just 1 winner from 16 runners for a loss of £14.38 (ROI -89.9%).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 3 wins from 12 for a loss of £4.29 (ROI -35.7%).
Age: 4yos have won 4 races from 33 qualifiers (SR 12.1%); 5yos have won 5 races from 29 qualifiers (SR 17.2%); 6yos+ have won 1 race from 13 qualifiers (SR 7.7%).
Trends analysis: Essentially this has been a market driven race with the top 5 in the betting providing all the winners. However, it would have paid dividends to focus on second and third favourites as they have proved the value. In terms of age, 5 year olds have the best strike rate, and hence are arguably better value than the 4 year olds. Sir Michael Stoute has an excellent recent record in the race winning the last three.

3.45 Sandown – Bet365 Mile – 1m Group 2 (4yo+)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): 6 wins from 11 for a profit of £4.58 (ROI +41.6%).
Position LTO: Horses that finished 2nd or 3rd LTO have provided 6 winners from 21 qualifiers for a profit of £36.20 (ROI +172.4%).
Course LTO: All of the last 10 winners raced at Grade 1 track LTO.
Price LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 8/1 or shorter LTO.
Class LTO: Horses that raced in Group company LTO have provided 8 of the last 10 winners. They have provided 80% of the winners from less than 50% of the total runners.
Trainers: Richard Hannon has saddled 5 of the last 10 winners from just 9 runners.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Position LTO: Last time out winners have provided just 1 winner from 23 runners for a loss of £20.13 (ROI -87.5%).
Class LTO: Horses that raced in class 2 or lower LTO have provided 0 winners from 14.
AW LTO: Only 7 horses have arrived here having run on the all weather LTO but all have failed to win or place.

GENERAL STATS

Age: 4yos have won 6 races from 34 qualifiers (SR 17.6%); 5yos have won 3 races from 28 qualifiers (SR 10.7%); 6yos+ have won 1 race from 19 qualifiers (SR 5.3%).
Trends analysis: Favourites have an excellent record and demand close scrutiny, as do horses that finished 2nd or 3rd LTO. In contrast LTO winners have a very poor record – somewhat surprisingly perhaps. In terms of age, 6 year olds and older have the worst record, although the race is generally contested by 4 and 5 year olds. Finally Richard Hannon has saddled 5 of the last 7 winners so his runners deserve the upmost respect.

10 year trends for 2 races on Saturday

Saturday, April 16th, 2011 at 9:54 am  
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3.10 Newbury – Greenham Stakes – 7f group 3 (3yo colts and geldings)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: All of the last 10 winners have come from the top four in the betting.
Market: 3rd and 4th favourites have combined to produce 4 winners from 21 for a profit of £16.00 (ROI +76.2%).
Price: All of the 10 winners have been priced 8/1 or shorter.
LTO Class: 8 of the last 10 winners raced in Group or Listed Class LTO.
Position LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners came 1st or 2nd LTO.
Trainers: Richard Hannon has saddled 4 winners and 4 placed runners from 12; Barry Hills has saddled 2 winners and 2 placed runners from 7.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market: Horses 5th or bigger in the betting have provided 0 winners from 35.
LTO distance: Horses that raced over 6f or less LTO have provided just 2 winners from 29 for a loss of £15.67 (ROI -54%).
LTO running style: Horses that were held up LTO have provided just 2 winners from 31 for a loss of £19.67 (ROI -63.5%).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites: 3 wins from 10 for a loss of £2.40 (ROI -24%).

Trends Summary: This has been a market dominated race with all winners from the top four of the betting and all priced 8/1 or less. Horses that raced in class 1 events LTO have a definite edge and any runner from the Richard Hannon stable requires close scrutiny. In terms of negatives it looks best to avoid runners that were held up on their latest start and/or those that ran over 5 or 6f LTO.

3.45 Newbury Spring Cup– 1m class 2 handicap (4yo+)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Recent wins: 9 of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last six starts.
Market LTO: Horses that were first or second favourite LTO have provided 6 winners.  They have provided 60% of the winners from just 25% of the total runners.
Price: 6 of the 10 winners have been priced between 8/1 and 12/1.
Draw: 9 of the last 10 winners were drawn 10 or higher.
Career wins: Horses that have won once or twice only in their careers have provided 7 of the last 10 winners.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): 1 win from 12 for a loss of £6.50 (ROI -54.2%).
Market: Just 2 wins for any horse from the top three of the betting.
Headgear: Horses wearing any type of headgear have provided 0 winners and just 1 placed runner from 27.
Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten 10 or more lengths LTO have provided just 1 winner from 77 for a loss of £64.00 (ROI -83.1%).
Front runners: 14 horses have led or disputed the lead early and none have managed to place.
Distance LTO: Horses that raced over 7f or less LTO have provided 1 winner from 40 qualifiers for a loss of £28.00 (ROI -70%).

GENERAL STATS

Age: 4yos have won 7 races from 103 qualifiers (SR 6.8%); 5yos have won 3 races from 63 (SR 4.8%); 6yos and older have won 0 races from 61 (SR 0%).

Trends  summary:

To start with I would ignore 6 year olds and older and from the remaining runners would ignore any horses that have failed to win once in their last six starts.

I would also avoid any horses that were beaten by 10 or more lengths LTO. Horses drawn 10 or higher have had a definite advantage over the years, while the best price bracket has been between 8/1 and 12/1.

Aintree 10 year trends trends for Saturday

Friday, April 8th, 2011 at 8:45 pm  
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1.45 John Smith’s Mersey Novices’ Hurdle 2m4f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 7 of the last 10 winners started in the first two of the betting. Second favourites have won 5 races (PROFIT of £14.08; ROI +156.4%).
Price: 7 of the last 10 winners were priced 9/2 or shorter.
Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first four LTO.
LTO race: 5 of the last 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Festival and all 5 had finished sixth or better.
Races in current season: 8 of the last 10 winners had run at least 4 times that season.
Trainers: Paul Nicholls has had five runners and 3 have won (1 placed).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price 20/1+: 0 wins from 44 (only 3 placed).
Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten 15 or more lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 27 runners (only 2 placed).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 11.
Finishing positions of favourites: 5, 2, F, 4, 3, 1/2, 5, 3, 5, 1
Age: 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6 (although they made up 66% of the runners).

Trends Summary: 5 and 6yos dominate the race but they do provide the majority of the runners. Second favourites have performed very well winning half the races, while a decent effort at Cheltenham LTO is another positive. Most of the winners had run at least four times that season which is a further positive to bear in mind. Paul Nicholls has a good record in the race so any runner from the stable requires close scrutiny.

2.15 Maghull Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) 2m

POSITIVE TRENDS

Recent form: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO.
Race LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners ran in the Arkle Chase at Cheltenham.
Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 6/1 or shorter (9 winners were 4/1 or shorter).
Market: 9 of the last 10 winners were first or second in the betting. Second favourites have won 6 renewals (PROFIT of £12.33; ROI +112.1%).
Breeding: 5 of the last 10 winners were French bred (6 others were placed).
Trainers: Paul Nicholls has had 4 winners in the past 10 renewals (5 in last 12).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price 13/2+: 0 wins from 43 (only 4 placed).
Breeding: British bred runners have provided 0 winners from 16 with only 1 placed runner.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 3 wins, 6 seconds from 10.
Finishing positions of favourites: 2, 2, 3, 1, 2, 2, 1, 1, 2, 2

Trends Summary: The best starting point is to look for horses that ran in the Arkle Chase LTO as they have provided 80% of the winners from around 50% of the total runners. The market has been a very strong indicator also with no winner priced over 6/1. Indeed there have been 9 winners priced 4/1 or shorter. In terms of breeding Feench breds definitely have an edge while British bred runners have struggled. Paul Nicholls has a good record in the race.

2.50 John Smith’s Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 4f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Recent form: 5 of the last 10 winners finished out of the frame / fell LTO.
Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 12/1 or shorter.
Trainers: 6 of the last 10 winners (60%) were trained in Ireland. Irish raiders have accounted for only a quarter of the total runners).
Jockeys: Ruby Walsh has had 3 wins from 6 rides in the race; Timmy Murphy has had 3 wins from 8.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Headgear: 0 wins from 25 runners for horses with any type of headgear (blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue ties).
Price 14/1+: 0 wins from 47 (4 placed).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 12, but 5 others have finished second.
Finishing positions of favourites: 2, 7, 2, 1/2, F, 2, 10, 1/2, 4, 3
Breeding: Irish bred runners do have a slight edge having won 6 races (60%) from 40% of the total runners.

Trends Summary: Horses priced 12/1 or shorter have dominated the race while a good run LTO is not a necessity. Irish runners have an outstanding record in the race not just in the last 10 years but stretching back to the mid 70s. Irish breds perform above the norm, while horses wearing headgear have a poor record.

3.25 John Smith’s Handicap Chase 3m 1f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Class: 9 of the last 10 winners had raced in Graded company in their careers.
Recent wins: 9 of the last 10 winners had won at least one of their last six starts.
Position LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO.
Trainers: Jonjo O’Neill has won the race 3 times (4 if you go back an extra year); Nicky Henderson has won the race twice.
Running style: Hold up horses have done well in this race with 6 wins from the last 10 renewals.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Course winners: Course winners are 0 from 25 with just 3 placed.
Career starts: Horses that had raced 25 times or more in their careers have provided just 1 win from 47 (LOSS of £41.50; ROI -88.3%).
LTO run: Horses that failed to finish on their previous start have provided 0 winners from 31.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 11 for a small loss.
Finishing positions of favourites: P, 1, 3, 5, 2, 4/P, 1, F, PU, 4
Course LTO: 6 of the 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival LTO from 60 runners (SR 10%); horses that did not race at the festival have provided 4 winners from 93 (SR 4.3%).

Trends Summary: Not the strongest races of the meeting as far as trends are concerned. It is best to focus on horses that have won at least once in their last six runs, and have run in Graded company at some point in their careers. Any horses trained by Jonjo O’Neill needs close scrutiny, while Nicky Henderson has a decent record also. In terms of negatives, avoid horses that have 25 times or more in their careers and/or any horse that failed to finish LTO. Finally, horses that ran at the Cheltenham festival have a much better chance of winning than those that did not.

4.15 John Smith’s Grand National (handicap chase) – 4m 4f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Price: 7 of the last 10 winners have been priced 20/1 or shorter. Hence 70% of the winners have come from 29% of the runners.
Winning form: All of the last 10 winners had previously won over 3 miles or further – this stat holds true right back to 1970.
Age: 9 and 10yos have provided 7 of the last 10 winners (70%) from just under 50% of the runners.
Weight: 9 of the last 10 winners carried 11st 1lb or less.
Breeding: 8 of the last 10 winners were Irish bred.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Age: 8yo or younger have won just 1 from 96 runners. (7yos or younger are 0 from 30 and none have finished in the first four – indeed 23 have failed to complete the course). 13yo and older runners are rare but all 10 have been soundly beaten.
Price 40/1+: 1 win from 188 qualifiers.
Headgear: Horses wearing blinkers or visors have produced 1 win from 55, with 3 further finishing placed (LOSS of £47.00; ROI -85.5%).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 3 wins from 20.
Finishing positions of favourites: F/F/BD, 3, PU, 2/F/U/PU, 1, 2/3, F/PU/R, 1/6, 7, 1/4
Trainers: 4 of the last 10 winners were trained in Ireland.

Trends Summary: Mon Mome was a shock 100/1 winner two years ago but overall big priced runners should be ignored. One stat that goes back to 1970 is concerned with the fact that all winners had won over 3 miles or further in their careers. Irish trainers deserve respect also as they have provided 40% of the winners from less than 20% of the total runners. In terms of weight, horses carrying bigger weights (11st 2lb or more) have a poor record although Don’t Push It bucked the trend last year carrying 11st 5lb to victory. In terms of age it looks best to avoid horses aged 8 or younger.

4.55 John Smith’s Handicap Hurdle (Listed) 2m ½f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Price: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced between 7/1 and 20/1.
Weight: 9 of the last 10 winners carried 10st 10lb or less.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites: 0 wins from 10.
Market: The top three in the betting have provided 0 winners.
Official ratings: Horses with an OR of 133 or more have provided 1 winner from 43 (LOSS of £31.00; ROI -72.1%).
Weights: The top seven in the weights have provided only 2 winners from 74.
Trainers: The Pipe stable have saddled 22 runners but 0 winners (only 3 placed).

GENERAL STATS

Finishing positions of favourites: 2, 15, F, 2, 13, 15, 8, PU, 18, 8
Age: 6 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6 (16 out of the last 20 going back a further 10 years). However, they do make up a fair proportion of the total runners.

Trends Summary: On the face of it there seem to be limited trends, but horses carrying 10st 10lb or less that are priced between 7/1 and 20/1 is a starting point at least.

5.30 Champion Standard National Hunt Flat Race 2m 1f

The race was not run in 2007 so I have gone back an extra year.

POSITIVE TRENDS

Season’s form: 8 of the last 10 winners had won at least once that season.
Market: 6 of the last 10 winners have been priced 25/1 or bigger.
Age: 6yos have a decent record with 5 wins from 38 (PROFIT of £104.25; ROI +274.3%).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market: Horses from the top 8 of the betting have won just 3 of the 10 races.
Age: Horses aged 4 have provided just 1 winner from 59 (LOSS £44.00; ROI -74.6%).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins, 3 placed from 11.
Finishing positions of favourites: 8, 1, 1, 14, 3, 4, 4, 3/20, 2, 19

Trends Summary: With the last 5 of the last 7 winners having been priced 25/1 or bigger this is not an easy finale. 6yos have a good record having won 50% of the races from 19% of the total runners. So a big priced 6yo is probably the value call.

Lays Spreadsheet Staking Plans

Thursday, April 7th, 2011 at 11:42 am  
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Lays Spreadsheet Staking Plans

I have put together a spreadsheet to help try and determine optimum usage of the lay selections Dave puts out here at Racing Trends.

When looking at staking or strategy determination etc it is best to use as much historic data as possible.
This spreadsheet covers all flat and turf selections provided by the method going back to when
BSP was first introduced on Betfair in 2008.

The spreadsheet examines both laying the horses to win and to place.

It also permits the setting of odds ranges on both win and place.

Results are examined using several different staking approaches.

#1 Probably the most common way lay results are listed is to assume you take £100
from the Betfair punter each bet. This I term Fixed Stake laying.
Lay a 10/1 winner for example and you lose £10 * £100 = £1000

You win £100 minus Betfair commission each time you are correct.

It’s a common method of staking lays but I would suggest if doing it that way you need be careful about which horses you lay.
Duck the huge odds ones by setting a maximum odds limit you are comfortable with.

#2 The second classic approach to laying I term.. Fixed Liability.
With this approach you alter the stake you take on Betfair to give yourself an constant risk per horse.
It then matters not if the horse is even money or ten to one.
The most you can lose on that horse is what ever liability you have set per horse.
What varies here is how much you win on a successful lay.
It is sort of similar to how a traditional bookmaker will let you stake more on a short price selection than a long odds one.
Key concern to them is not the stake ..but the payout or liability.

#3 Rolling Bank Liability.
Here we seek to compound gains by setting liability not to a fixed amount to but to a fixed percentage of your bank.
As your bank grows so does the amount you are prepared to risk on each selection.

The spreadsheet is well worth a play with in order to find a lay usage strategy that suits your good self.

Charts and graphs indicate how the settings you use alter performance over time.

If I were a Sun headline writer I’d be screaming about how laying the selections to place turned an
initial £1000 into £2 million quid since 2008.
That’s laying to risk 5% of a rolling bank.

You can actually up that figure by being more aggressive with your percentage bank setting.
Be aware however that’s a theoretical spreadsheet land figure.

In real life you are obviously going to struggle to get 5% or more of a Million plus bank laid at acceptable odds.
That said if it got to only 10% or even 5% of that figure over the next year or two would you be unhappy?

Such atronomical spreadsheet figures..best judged with a pinch of salt.

Perhaps best viewed simply as.. a small bank can grow to something significantly bigger over
time if you have an edge and compound gains.

Anyhow .. here is the link to the spreadsheet
http://www.racingtrends.co.uk/download/RT-Lays.xls

I also have a webpage copy at http://www.racingtrends.co.uk/RT-Lays.htm

But the actual spreadsheet is better assuming you can use it as the web copy is just a snapshot.
The actual spreadsheet permits you to play with staking plan and odds range settings etc.

Best wishes
Mick
Admin
www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Grand National

Friday, April 1st, 2011 at 5:46 pm  
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The Grand National, the world’s most famous steeplechase and one of the few sporting events with national, even worldwide, resonance, stands as the centrepiece of a three-day meeting at Aintree.

Scheduled to take place in 2011 on Thursday April 7, Friday April 8 and Saturday April 9, the annual event draws in 150,000 spectators from the city of Liverpool and beyond, and also attracts a worldwide TV audience. The John Smith’s Grand National itself is televised in 140 countries and attracts an audience estimated by Aintree at 600 million.

But for those on the ground at Aintree, whether it is in the salubrious Princess Royal stand or the bustling Tattersalls, or even amongst the open spaces and revelry of the Steeplechase enclosure, the experience goeswell beyond the fascinating Grand National. Three days of high quality racing, often featuring Cheltenham Festival winners, support the main event, and the amenities, nightlife and restaurants of Liverpool are just fifteen minutes train journey away.

Schedule

Thursday: Liverpool Day – the racing highlights are the Totesport Bowl, the John Smith’s Liverpool Hurdle and the Foxhunters’ Steeplechase, which is run over the National fences.

Friday: Ladies’ Day – an increasingly popular fixture, which marries top racing – including the John Smith’s Melling Steeplechase, the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle and, over the National Fences, the John Smith’s Topham Steeplechase – with one of Liverpool’s top social occasions.

Saturday: John Smith’s Grand National Day – the most famous steeplechase in the world takes centre stage.

How To Improve Your Chance of Picking The Grand National Winner

We will be providing our members with research based on ten past years running. Not only for the National but also for many other races in the meeting at Aintree.

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