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2.25 Newmarket Friday – Cherry Hinton 10 year trends

Friday, July 8th, 2011 at 12:27 pm  
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Cherry Hinton – 6f (Group 2) 2yo (fillies)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): 6 wins from 10 for a profit of £3.00 (ROI +30%).
LTO Favourites: Horses that were favourite LTO have provided 6 of the winners from 27 qualifiers for a small profit of £1.75 (ROI +6.5%).
LTO winners: 9 of the last 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd LTO (6 won).
LTO course: 7 of the last 10 winners ran at Royal Ascot LTO.
LTO race type: All of the last 10 winners raced in a fillies’ only race LTO.
LTO price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 10/1 or shorter LTO.
Trainers: Richard Hannon has had 2 winners from 7 runners (and one further horse placed).
Jockeys: Richard Hughes and Frankie Dettori have both won the race twice in the last 10 years.
Running style: 8 of the last 10 winners raced up with or close to the pace.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 16/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 37.
Market: 2nd, 3rd and 4th favourites combined have a poor record with just 1 win from 31 for a loss of £26.50 (ROI -85.5%).
Position LTO: Horses finishing 3rd or worse LTO have provided just 1 winner from 40 qualifiers for a loss of £25.00 (ROI -62.5%).

GENERAL STATS

Fate of the favs: 1, 2, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 4, 2, 1

Trends analysis: This race has been a good one for market leaders with 60% of the races seeing a winning favourite. Indeed, horses that were favourite LTO have an excellent record also. Last time out winners (and runners-up) have a good record also. In terms of price, there have been no wins for horses priced 16/1 or bigger, while LTO price has been important also with all of the last 10 winners having been priced 10/1 or shorter in their most recent start.

Saturday – 10 year trends for races at Sandown and Haydock

Saturday, July 2nd, 2011 at 8:16 am  
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3.10 Sandown – Coral Eclipse – 1m2f (Group 1) 3yo+

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: Second and third favourites have provided 6 of the last 10 winners. Backing all runners would have produced a profit of £21.75 (ROI +108.8%).
Price: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 8/1 or shorter.
Position LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO.
Days since last run: All 10 winners had been off the track for between 17 and 28 days.
LTO course: 7 of the last 10 winners ran at Royal Ascot LTO.
LTO class: 9 of the last 10 winners raced in a Group 1 contest LTO, (11 of last 12 for the record).
LTO price: 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 13/2 or shorter LTO.
Trainers: Aidan O’Brien 3 has provided 3 winners, Sir Michael Stoute 2.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 14/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 40.
Favourites: Although favourites have won the last two, backing them over the last 10 years would have made a loss of £4.27 (ROI -42.7%).
Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten 8 or more lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 20.

GENERAL STATS

Fate of the favs: 4, 1, 2, 8, 2, 5, 2, 2, 1, 1
Age: 3yos have provided 3 winners from 29 (SR 10.3%); 4yos have provided 4 winners from 32 (SR 12.5%); 5yos have provided 3 winners from 20 (SR 15%); 6yo+ have provided 0 winners from 6 (SR 0%).

Trends analysis: This tends to be a good race for trends’ followers. It is a race dominated by positive trends with the market generally getting it right. Second and third favourites have proved better value than the favourite, while runners that raced at Royal Ascot LTO have provided 7 of the 10 winners. Runners from the high profile stables of Aidan O’Brien and Sir Michael Stoute demand great respect as between them they have provided 5 of the last 10 winners, and indeed 9 of the last 18. Racing in Group 1 company LTO is another plus with 9 of the last 10 winners having run at the top level on their latest start. From an age perspective there does seem any bias, while in terms of negatives, it looks best to ignore horses that were beaten by 8 or more lengths LTO.

2.50 Haydock – Lancashire Oaks – 1m4f (Group 2) 3yo+

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: The top 3 in the betting have provided 8 of the last 10 winners.
Price: 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 13/2 or shorter LTO.
LTO winners: Horses that won LTO have provided 5 winners from 21 qualifiers for a profit of £28.75 (ROI +136.9%).
Days off the track: Horses off the track for more than 4 weeks have provided 6 winners from 40 qualifiers for a profit of £8.37 (ROI +20.9%).
Market position LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners were favourite or second favourite LTO.
Trainers: John Gosden has had 2 winners (different horses). David Elsworth has won it twice in the last two years with Barshiba.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 14/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 31 runners.
Recent form: Horses that have failed to win one of their last six races have provided 0 winners from 10.
Running style: Just 1 win for horses held up mid division or at the back early in the race.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites: 3 wins from 11 for a small loss of £2.13.
Fate of the favs: 1, 1, 6, 2, 7, 3, 5, 1/2, 3, 2
Age: 3yos have provided 3 winners from 45 (SR 6.7%); 4yos have provided 4 winners from 35 (SR 11.4%); 5yos+ have provided 3 winners from 9 (SR 33.3%).

Trends analysis: The top three in the betting have provided 80% of the winners so this seems a sensible starting point. LTO winners have a decent record, as do horses that have been off the track for over 4 weeks. For in running punters it should be noted that hold up horses have a poor record and it has proved best to concentrate on runners that are tracking the early pace.

3.25 Haydock – Old Newton Cup – 1m4f (Class 2 handicap) 4yo+

POSITIVE TRENDS

Last six races: 9 of the last 10 winners had won at least one of their last six races.
LTO race type: 9 of the last 10 winners ran in an all age handicap LTO.
Price: 6 of the last 10 winners have been priced between 7/1 and 9/1.
Age: 4yos have provided 7 winners for a profit of £27.50 (ROI +39.3%).
Days since last run: 5 of the last 10 winners ran had had a break of between 10 and 14 days.
Class: Horses stepping up in class have a good record with 6 wins and a profit of £42.50 (ROI +86.7%).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 20/1 or bigger have provided 1 winner from 56.
Age: Horses aged 6 or older have provided 0 winners from 41.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 14 for a loss of £2.00 (ROI -14.3%).
Fate of the favs: 9, 8, 4/10, 4, 8, 5/11, 4/12, 2, 1, 1/10, 9
Position LTO: 5 of the last 10 winners won or finished 2nd LTO.
Distance winners: Distance winners have been just under twice as likely to win this race than non-distance winners.

Trends analysis: A good starting point is to look for horses that have won at least once of their last six starts as they have provided 90% of the winners from under 70% of the total runners. 4yos have a good record as do horses that have a short break of between 10 and 14 days. Horses being raised in class have done well also proving profitable.

Royal Ascot – 10 year trends for 2 races on Thursday

Thursday, June 16th, 2011 at 10:12 am  
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4.25 Ascot – Britannia Stakes (1 mile – handicap) 3yo

POSITIVE TRENDS

Price: 6 of the last 10 winners have been priced between 14/1 and 33/1.
Weight: Horses carrying 8st 12lb or less have provided 9 of the last 10 winners.
Price LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners were priced 6/1 or shorter LTO.
Market position LTO: Horses that were favourite or second favourite LTO have provided 6 of the last 10 winners.
Running style: 8 of the 10 races have been won by horses that came from off the pace.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Weight: Horses from the top 7 in the weights have provided 2 winners from 72 runners for a loss of £29.00 (ROI -40.3%).
Position LTO: Horses that won LTO have provided just 2 winners from 77 for a loss of £57.00 (ROI -74%).
Beaten distance LTO: Horses that were beaten by more than 5 lengths LTO have provided just 2 winners from 98.
Race type LTO: Horses that raced in a maiden LTO have provided 0 wins from 24 runners.
Race distance LTO: Horses that raced over 1m1f or more LTO have provided 0 wins from 55 runners.

GENERAL TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 from 12 for a small loss of £1.50 (ROI -12.5%).
Trainers: John Gosden has saddled the winner twice but he has had 18 runners.
Trends Summary: This has been an open race if you look at the prices of the winners and the best starting point is to focus on runners carrying less weight – 8st 12lb or less has been the cut-off point in recent years with 9 of the last 10 winners carrying no more than that. There are some interesting negative trends worth noting such as poor performances for LTO winners and horses that raced over 9f or more LTO.

5.35 Ascot – King George V – (1 mile 4f – handicap) 3yo

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 6 of the last 10 winners were priced between 7/1 and 14/1.
Position LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners finished in the first 3 LTO.
Price LTO: Horses that were priced 6/1 or shorter LTO have provided 8 of the last 10 winners.
Market position LTO: LTO favourites have won 6 of the last 10 races from 56 qualifiers for a profit of £13.00 (ROI +23.2%).
Career runs: Horses that have run 6 times or less in their careers have won 9 of the last 10 races.
Trainers: Mark Johnston and Sir Michael Stoute have both had 3 wins in the last 10 renewals.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): 1 win from 12 for favourites showing a loss of £5.50 (ROI -45.8%).

GENERAL TRENDS

Race type LTO: 3 winners raced in non handicaps LTO from 53 runners (SR 5.7%); 7 winners raced in handicaps LTO from 130 runners (SR 5.4%).
Trends Summary: Not a great race for favourites but then this is always a competitive handicap with a big field. Horses priced 7/1 to 14/1 have been the most successful, as have relatively lightly raced animals (6 races or less). Horses that finished in the first 3 LTO also have a good record. Trainers Sir Michael Stoute and Mark Johnston seem to target this race.

Weds – Royal Ascot 10 year trends

Tuesday, June 14th, 2011 at 5:52 pm  
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4.25 Ascot – The Royal Hunt Cup (1 mile all age handicap)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Recent win: Horses that have won at least one race in their last six have won 9 of the 10 races.
Position LTO: Horses that won LTO have provided 5 of the last 10 winners.
Age: Horses aged 4 or 5 have won 9 of the last 10 races.
Market: Second favourites (inc. joints) have performed well with 3 wins from 11 runners for a profit of £13.50 (ROI +122.7%).
Draw: Horses drawn closest to either rail have had the advantage. 6 of the last 10 winners were drawn either in the highest six stalls or the lowest five stalls.
Trainers: James Fanshawe has had 2 winners and 2 placed horses from 4 runners (all 4 runners have been different horses).
Favourites LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners had been favourite on their previous start. Backing all 55 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £32.50 (ROI +59.1%).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites: 1 win from 10 for a loss of £5.00 (ROI -50.0%)
Age: Horses aged 6 or older have won just 1 race from 88 qualifiers for a loss of £71.00 (ROI -80.7%).
Price: Horses priced 33/1 or bigger have won 0 races from 142 runners.
Career starts: Horses that have raced 20 or more times in their careers have provided just 1 winner from 106.
Weight: Horses in the top 7 of the weights (inc. joints) have provided just 2 winners from 78 runners for a loss of £56.00 (ROI -71.8%).
Claiming jockeys: Jockeys claiming a weight allowance have provided 0 winners from 22.

GENERAL STATS

Running style: 6 wins for horses that were held up; 4 wins for those who tracked the early pace.
Trends Summary: 4 and 5 year olds have tended to dominate this race, but although they have won 90% of the races they have provided 70% of the total runners. Best positive trend is horses that have proven winning form in the last six races; indeed horses that won LTO have provided 50% of the winners from under 17% of the total runners. The draw has been a major factor as well with very high and very low numbers performing best. There are several negative trends and it seems worth avoiding 6 year olds or older, the top 7 in the weights and any horse priced 33/1 or bigger. Using these trends should help you narrow down the field to a much more manageable size.

5.00 Ascot – Queen Mary (5f – Group 2) 2yo

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): 4 wins from 11 for a profit of £6.38 (ROI +58%).
Price: 7 of the last 10 winners were priced 13/2 or shorter.
Price LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 7/2 or shorter LTO.
Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners won LTO (other 2 winners came 2nd LTO).
Running style: 3 of the last 10 winners lead early or disputed the lead early which is a high return considering the average size of the field.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: There has been 0 wins from 65 qualifiers for horses priced 33/1 or bigger (only 1 horse placed).
Position LTO: Horses that finished 3rd or worse LTO have provided 0 winners from 52.
Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten 1½ lengths or more LTO have provided 0 winners from 46.

GENERAL TRENDS

Draw: There has an even spread for winners in terms of draw positions.
Breeding: Irish breds have won 5 races from 68 runners (SR 7.4%); British bred runners have won 4 races from 83 (SR 4.8%); US breds have won 1 race from 23 (SR 4.3%).
Trends Summary: This race was upgraded to Group 2 status in 2004, but essentially this is still the first big sprint target for 2yo fillies. Favourites have a good record and they demand close scrutiny, but the LTO price seems a better starting point with 9 of the last 10 winners being priced 7/2 or shorter on their most recent start. LTO winners have a good record as one would expect, and horses that failed to finish in the first two LTO look best avoided. In terms of breeding there seems a small edge to Irish bred runners.

Royal Ascot 2011 – trends and stats by David Renham

Monday, June 13th, 2011 at 5:00 pm  
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Royal Ascot 2011 – trends and stats by David Renham

This piece on Royal Ascot is split into two sections. The first section looks at some general stats for the meeting while the second part focuses on some of the main races from a trends perspective. The data used comes from 2000 to 2010 although I have excluded the meeting when it was held at York in 2005 in both sections.

All profits / losses are quoted to 1pt level win stakes; ROI = return on investment; SR = strike rate; LTO = last time out.

In the past I have grouped all race data together but this year I am splitting the data into two – firstly focusing on Group and Listed races; secondly focusing on handicap races.

All Group/Listed races – 2000 to 2010

Firstly let us look at market position:

Starting Price Rank

SP Rank Wins Runners SR (%) Profit / loss ROI (%)
1 64 208 30.8 +£10.72 +5.2
2 36 197 18.3 +£8.99 +4.6
3 20 209 9.6 -£68.00 -32.5
4 16 191 8.4 -£59.50 -31.2
5 12 181 6.6 -£56.50 -31.2
6 13 221 5.9 -£57.00 -25.8
7+ 29 1253 2.3 -£502.00 -40.1

Both favourites and second favourites have shown a small profit to SP which goes to show that the market is an excellent guide in Group and Listed races at the Royal meeting. It seems best to focus your attention there. Horses 7th or bigger in the betting have a very low strike rate, and the results of runners priced 33/1 or bigger reads a dismal 6 wins from 662 runners.

Age

In 3yo+ / all age Group/Listed races, let us compare the performance of different age groups:

Age Wins Runners SR (%) Profit / loss ROI (%)
3 4 72 5.6 +£23.00 +31.9
4 27 334 8.1 -£141.12 -42.3
5 19 207 9.2 -£70.17 -33.9
6 12 104 11.5 +£29.70 +28.6
7 3 53 5.7 -£33.63 -63.4
8+ 1 50 2.0 -£47.50 -95.0

5 and 6yos have the best strike rates and look the best value, which is perhaps a little surprising. Horses aged 7 and older struggle and are best avoided.

Trainers

Trainers who perform consistently well at this meeting are few and far between purely due to the fact that this is such a competitive meeting. One would expect it to be harder to obtain winners in Group/Listed contests – the table shows trainers who have saddled at least 20 runners with a strike rate of 12% or more:

Trainer Wins Runners SR (%) Profit / loss ROI (%)
Mark Johnston 18 78 23.1 +£55.10 +70.6
William Haggas 5 27 18.5 +£37.00 +137.0
Aidan O’Brien 26 163 16.0 -£27.31 -16.8
Sir Michael Stoute 16 112 14.3 -£32.87 -29.4
Marcus Tregoning 3 23 13.0 +£3.50 +15.2
Saeed Bin Suroor 16 126 12.7 -£30.35 -24.1
Peter Chapple-Hyam 3 25 12.0 -£9.75 -39.0

Mark Johnston has a seriously impressive record – to produce a strike rate of 23% is quite remarkable although it should be noted that 11 of these 18 winners came between 2000 and 2003. Having said that, he did saddle 2 winners from 5 in these contests last year, so he is still a trainer to keep a close eye on. John Dunlop (0 from 45), Kevin Ryan (0 from 29) and Dandy Nicholls (0 from 28) are trainers to be wary of in top class races.

Jockeys

Let me look at jockeys now– the table shows all jockeys that have ridden in at least 40 Group/Listed contests:

Jockey Wins Runners SR (%) Profit / loss ROI (%)
Johnny Murtagh 23 111 20.7 +£89.40 +80.5
Olivier Peslier 7 43 16.3 +£27.88 +64.8
Steve Drowne 5 40 12.5 +£94.50 +236.3
Kieren Fallon 12 98 12.2 -£38.05 -38.8
Richard Hills 9 78 11.5 -£23.42 -30.0
Frankie Dettori 17 150 11.3 -£45.47 -30.3
Richard Hughes 13 115 11.3 -£12.30 -10.7
Jamie Spencer 9 99 9.1 +£23.63 +23.9
Philip Robinson 4 45 8.9 -£26.50 -58.9
Eddie Ahern 3 41 7.3 -£11.75 -28.7
Martin Dwyer 3 45 6.7 -£14.50 -32.2
Jimmy Fortune 6 91 6.6 -£55.17 -60.6
Michael Hills 4 63 6.4 -£18.00 -28.6
Ryan Moore 5 84 6.0 -£56.27 -67.0
Darryll Holland 3 70 4.3 -£49.90 -71.3
Ted Durcan 1 49 2.0 -£44.00 -89.8

Johnny Murtagh has an excellent record although he has landed several plum rides especially when riding for Aidan O’Brien.

Handicap races – 2000 to 2010

As before let me look at market position:

Starting Price Rank

SP Rank Wins Runners SR (%) Profit / loss ROI (%)
1 11 104 10.6 -£39.38 -37.9
2 11 103 10.7 -£28.50 -27.7
3 15 105 14.3 +£40.00 +38.1
4 13 112 11.6 +£29.50 +26.3
5 6 97 6.2 -£19.00 -19.6
6 6 101 5.9 -£24.00 -23.8
7+ 33 1499 2.2 -£712.00 -47.5

Completely different results in handicaps compared to the Group/listed results with the top two in the betting showing fairly severe losses. Remarkably 3rd and 4th favourites have actually made a profit in handicaps at the meeting. Horses 7th or bigger in the betting once again are best avoided. Indeed horses priced 33/1 or bigger have provided only 4 winners from 736 runners.

Age

There seems little to be gleaned from the all age handicap results in terms of age. Only point worth noting is that horses aged 9 or older have provided 0 winners from 34.

Trainers

I have looked at trainers who have saddled at least 3 handicap winners in the past 10 years. Only 10 trainers have managed this feat, 2 of which (Michael Jarvis and Martin Pipe) are now retired:

Trainer Wins Runners SR (%) Profit / loss ROI (%)
James Fanshawe 4 20 20.0 +£18.50 +92.5
Hughie Morrison 4 31 12.9 +£25.00 +80.7
Michael Bell 3 27 11.1 +£18.50 +68.5
Sir Michael Stoute 7 65 10.8 +£4.00 +6.2
Roger Charlton 3 28 10.7 +£24.00 +85.7
John Gosden 5 55 9.1 +£9.00 +16.4
Ed Dunlop 4 47 8.5 +£0.00 +0.0
Mark Johnston 7 115 6.1 -£19.50 -17.0

Clearly these trainers must be respected in handicaps, but their strike rates are low so long losing runs will occur. For the record Dandy Nicholls and Mick Channon have saddled 74 runners each and managed just 2 wins apiece.

Jockeys

Finally a look at jockeys in handicaps:

Jockey Wins Runners SR (%) Profit / loss ROI (%)
Johnny Murtagh 7 45 15.6 +£44.50 +98.9
Franny Norton 3 31 9.7 +£23.00 +74.2
Jimmy Fortune 5 53 9.4 +£30.00 +56.6
Richard Hughes 7 77 9.1 +£15.50 +20.1
Kieren Fallon 5 58 8.6 -£0.50 -0.9
Ryan Moore 4 51 7.8 -£19.50 -38.2
Steve Drowne 4 51 7.8 +£29.00 +56.9
Jamie Spencer 5 65 7.7 -£16.00 -24.6
Frankie Dettori 5 70 7.1 +£0.00 +0.0
Martin Dwyer 3 51 5.9 -£6.00 -11.8

Johnny Murtagh heads the list once more and clearly is a jockey who following at the Royal meeting. However, with low strike rates generally for jockeys backing specific jockeys is angle that would require much patience.

Royal Acot 10 year trends Tuesday

Monday, June 13th, 2011 at 4:56 pm  
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Tuesday – Royal Ascot 10 year trends

Last 10 seasons; N.B. Excluding York 2005

2.30 Ascot – Queen Anne Stakes (1m – Group 1) 4yo+ POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 8 wins from 10 for horses 2nd to 4th in the betting market.
Price: 9 of the last 10 winners have been priced 13/2 or shorter.
Trainers: 3 wins for Sir Michael Stoute and Saeed Bin Suroor. 2 wins for Aidan O’Brien.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): There has been just 1 winning favourite from 11 for a loss of £8.63 (ROI -78.4%).
Price: 0 wins from 52 for horses priced 14/1 or bigger.
Market: Horses 5th or bigger in the betting market have provided just 1 winner from 64 for a loss of £51.00 (ROI -79.7%).
Breeding: British bred runners have provided just 2 winners from 46 runners for a loss of £32.00 (ROI -69.6%).

GENERAL TRENDS

Sex: Just 11 females have lined up with 1 successful (Goldikova last year).
Age: 4yos have won 7 races from 59 runners (SR 11.9%); 5yos have won 3 races from 26 runners (SR 11.5%); 6yos+ have won 0 from 18 (SR 0%).
Trends Summary: Not the strongest trends race, but the race is usually won by more fancied runners despite the poor record of favourites. The race has been dominated by the big trainers most notably Bin Suroor and Stoute.

3.05 Ascot – King’s Stand Stakes (5f – Group 1) 3yo+ POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: The top 6 in the betting have provided 7 of the last 10 winners.
Price: 4 of the last 10 winners have been priced between 16/1 and 25/1.
Position LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners won LTO (2 other winners were 2nd LTO).
Breeding: Australian bred runners have won 4 races from just 11 qualifiers for a profit of £30.75 (ROI +279.6%).
Running style: 4 of the last 10 winners lead early or disputed the lead early which is worth noting considering for in running punters.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Breeding: Just 1 win for British bred runners from 66 for a loss of £49.00 (ROI -74.27%).
Price: 0 wins from 73 for horses priced 33/1 or bigger.

GENERAL TRENDS

Favourites: There have been 2 winning favourites from 10 for a loss of £2.25 (ROI -22.5%).
Sex: Male runners have produced 7 winners from 145 runners (SR 4.8%); female runners have provided 3 winners from 42 (SR 7.1%).
Age: 3yos have won 2 races from 40 runners (SR 5%); 4yos have won 1 from 43 runners (SR 2.3%); 5yos have won 4 from 42 runners (SR 9.5%); 6yos+ have won 3 from 62 (SR 4.8%).
Trends Summary: Australian runners have an excellent record in this race, while British bred runners do not. Horses priced 33/1 or bigger have a poor record, but there have been 4 winners between 16/1 and 25/1 so you have to be flexible in terms of price. LTO winners have a good record, while female runners deserve respect. In terms of age 5yos have done best but it is unclear whether this is a strong pattern.

3.45 Ascot – St James’ Palace Stakes (1 mile – Group 1) 3yo POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 6 winning favourites from 11 for a profit of £5.45 (ROI +49.6%).
Market: The top 4 in the betting have provided 9 of the last 10 winners.
Price: All of the last 10 winners have been priced 8/1 or shorter.
Position LTO: 5 of the last 10 winners won LTO.
Last race: 8 of the last 10 winners raced in the Irish Guineas LTO.
Trainers: Aidan O’ Brien has had 6 winners and 5 placed runners from 24 runners. Indeed he had the 1-2-3 in 2007 and the winner in 2008 and 2009.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Breeding: Just 1 win for British bred runners from 27 for a loss of £18.00 (ROI -66.7%).
Price: 0 wins from 59 for horses priced 17/2 or bigger.
Trends Summary: The market is an excellent guide with 6 winning favourites and all winners priced 8/1 or shorter. A run in the Irish Guineas is a big pointer, and runners from Aidan O’ Brien’s stable are definitely worth close examination thanks to his excellent record. Indeed he is 4 wins from 4 with favourites.

4.25 Ascot – Coventry Stakes (6 furlongs – Group 2) 2yo POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): 6 wins from 12 for a profit of £11.88 (ROI +99%).
Price: 9 of the last 10 winners were single figure prices.
Position LTO: All of the last 10 winners won LTO.
Breeding: US breds are worth noting with 4 winners in the last 10 races. They have provided 40% of the winners from only 23% of the total runners.
Trainers: 3 wins for Aidan O’Brien and 2 for Richard Hannon.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: There has been just 1 win from 120 qualifiers for horses priced 10/1 or bigger. Backing all qualifiers would have yielded a loss of £99.00 (ROI – 82.5%).
Maidens: 31 maidens have lined up – all have been beaten.
Trends Summary: This race was upgraded to Group 2 status in 2004, and essentially this is still the target for many of the best 2yo sprinters. Hence, long term trends are likely to be worth following. One very strong stat worth noting is that all of the last 10 winners won LTO. Indeed that stretches back to 20 of the last 21. It is also a market driven race with favourites having an excellent record, and all of the 10 winners being priced in single figures (19 of the last 21).

www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Sprint Analysis for Fri 10 Jun 2011

Friday, June 10th, 2011 at 12:03 pm  
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York 4:25PM (5f)

Horse D OR P Overall Course Distance High 12m OR HC Band DSLR DSLR Form
Mr Optimistic 1 85 2.8 29% (14) 0% (1) 27% (11) 80W / 80P - 15 40% (5)
Duchess Dora 2 86 2.8 20% (20) 0% (4) 22% (18) - / 94P 0% (2) 16 29% (7)
Captain Carey 3 92 2.8 27% (22) 0% (1) 38% (16) - / 93P 29% (7) 41 50% (2)
Bedloe’s Island 4 76 2.5 14% (14) - 18% (11) 70W / 70P - 10 0% (3)
Nadeen 5 81 2.2 18% (11) 0% (1) 40% (5) 78W / 78P 0% (1) 15 0% (6)
Rocket Rob 6 82 1.8 24% (34) - 24% (17) - / 90P 0% (10) 12 20% (10)
Mayoman 7 81 4.2 27% (26) 0% (1) 33% (12) 75W / 75P 0% (1) 16 38% (8)
Befortyfour 8 95 3.1 25% (12) 0% (2) 25% (12) - / - 100% (2) 6 0% (4)
Hamoody 9 85 1.8 15% (20) 0% (1) 25% (4) 82W / 85P 14% (7) 10 0% (1)
Tombi 10 88 2.8 12% (26) 13% (8) 0% (3) - / - 0% (1) 28 14% (7)
Magical Macey 11 81 3.2 16% (19) 0% (3) 17% (18) - / 84P 17% (6) 7 0% (4)
Discanti 12 88 3.2 14% (37) 0% (5) 14% (22) 85W / 85P 0% (7) 27 25% (8)
Haajes 13 81 2.2 16% (55) 25% (4) 27% (33) 83W / 85P 23% (13) 20 17% (18)
Medici Time 14 81 2.2 15% (34) 0% (1) 25% (12) 76W / 80P 0% (5) 9 0% (5)
Ancient Cross 15 95 1.8 8% (36) 33% (3) 33% (3) 89W / 89P 0% (5) 20 0% (12)
Cadeaux Pearl 16 83 4 13% (8) 0% (1) 25% (4) - / - 0% (1) 4 -

Conclusion: Mayoman has plenty of pace and should trade lower in running. Has a good chance to go very close so will be setting quite a low lay in running. I’m optimistic about Mr Optimistic too. You could make a case for a few so I would could not put you off Duchess Dora or Tombi.

Epsom Saturday – big race 10 year trends inc. the Derby

Saturday, June 4th, 2011 at 9:55 am  
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2.40 Epsom – Diomed Stakes 1m114yds (Group 3) 3yo+

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 7 of the last 10 winners were 3rd to 6th in the betting.
Breeding: 8 of the last 10 winners were British bred.
Position LTO: All of the last 10 winners finished in the first four LTO. Backing all 58 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £38.00 (ROI +65.5%).
Price LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners were single figure prices LTO.
Race type LTO: Horses that raced in a handicap LTO have provided 4 winners from 18 for a profit of £9.00 (ROI +50%).
Running style: 8 of the last 10 winners raced close or up with the pace.
Class change: 8 of the last 10 winners were racing up in class in comparison to their last race.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): 1 win from 12 for a loss of £6.00 (ROI -50%).
Distance LTO: Horses that raced over 10f or more LTO have provided just 1 win from 20.
Class LTO: Horses that raced in Group company LTO have provided just 2 winners from 32.
Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten by 5 or more lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 24.

GENERAL STATS

Fate of the favourites: 3, 1/4, 5/8, 7, 4, 3, 2, 2, 2, 7
Age: 3yos have won 0 races from 9 runners (SR 0%); 4yos have won 2 races from 37 runners (SR 5.4%); 5yos have won 2 races from 17 (SR 11.8%); 6yos+ have won 6 races from 20 (SR 30%).

Trends analysis: A good starting point would be to combine horses up in class with a position in the first four LTO. The value has been with runners that have been between 3rd and 6th in the betting, while favourites have struggled in recent years. In terms of age, it actually looks best to be older. Horses aged 6 year old and older have performed extremely well.

4.00 Epsom – Derby – 1m4f (Group 1) 3yo

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: The top three in the betting have provided 9 of the last 10 winners.
Favourites (inc. joints): 4 wins from 10 for a profit of £2.50 (ROI +20.8%).
Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 6/1 or shorter.
Position LTO: Horses that finished 1st LTO have provided 7 of the last 10 winners. The other 3 winners came 2nd LTO.
2yo career: All of the last 10 winners had won at least once as a 2yo (over 7f+).
Sire Stamina Index: All of the last 10 winners were by a sire with a stamina index of 8.6 or more.
Career starts: 9 of the last 10 winners had raced between 3 and 5 times in their careers.
Time off track: All of the last 10 winners had run within the last 5 weeks.
Trainers: 5 of the last 10 renewals have been won by Irish trainers.
Jockeys: Kieran Fallon and Johnny Murtagh have both ridden the winner on two occasions in the past 10 years.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market: Horses 5th or higher in the betting have provided 0 winners from 105.
Price: Horses priced 13/2 or bigger provided 0 winners from 113.
Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten by 4 or more lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 20.
Course LTO: Horses that ran at Lingfield LTO have provided 0 winners from 14.

GENERAL STATS

Fate of the favs: 1/2, 2, 13, 1/7, 1, 5, 1, 3, 2, 4
Breeding: Irish bred horses have won 6 of the last 10 races. However, they have supplied around half the runners
Course LTO / performance: Horses that won at York LTO have won 3 races from 17 qualifiers and have also proved 3 runners up.

Trends analysis: This is a market driven race. Horses priced 13/2 or bigger have a poor record and hence it should be possible to immediately narrow down the field using price as a starting point. LTO winners have a good record as one would expect and it is also important to look for runners who won over 7f or more as a 2yo. A recent run within 5 weeks has been key, while it should also be noted that Irish trainers have done well in recent years scoring 50% of the time.

Epsom Friday – Oaks – 10 year trends

Thursday, June 2nd, 2011 at 7:35 pm  
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Oaks – 1m4f (Group 1) 3yo

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): 5 wins from 11 for a profit of £7.58 (ROI +68.9%).
Price: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 10/1 or shorter.
Time off track: All of the last 10 winners had run within the last 5 weeks.
Position LTO: 7 out of the last 10 winners won LTO; 2 were 2nd in Oaks trials.
Price LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners were priced 7/2 or shorter LTO.
Sires: 9 out of the last 10 winners were sired by a horse that won at either Group 1 or Group 2 level.
2yo year: 6 of the last 10 winners had won or been placed as a 2yo in a Listed or Group race.
Breeding: American bred runners are rare these days but have 2 wins from 13 runners in the past 10 years. Previous to that they had a good record so they are worth noting.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market: 2nd and 3rd favourites have combined to provide 0 winners from 20.
Price: Horses priced 11/1 or higher have produced 1 winner from 72 qualifiers for a loss of £38.00 (ROI -52.8%).

GENERAL STATS

Fate of the favs: 1, 1, 2, 2, 1/4, 1, 8, 5, 1, 6

Trends analysis: As with the Derby this tends to be a market driven race although in 2008 was a trends buster with the winner priced 33/1 and the second priced at 25/1. Favourites have a very good record but it is surprisingly to see no wins for 2nd or 3rd favourites. A run in the last 5 weeks has been important, as has being sired by a horse that had won in either Group 1 or Group 2 company. American breds traditionally have a good record, but there are not many such runners these days.

10 year trends for Sandown – Thursday evening

Thursday, May 26th, 2011 at 12:27 pm  
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10 year trends for tonight’s racing

7.40 Sandown – Brigadier Gerard Stakes– 1m 2f (Group 3) 4yo+

 

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 5 of the last 10 winners have been either 3rd or 4th favourite.
Price: 6 of the last 10 winners have been priced between 7/2 and 7/1.
Position LTO: 6 of the 10 winners finished first or second LTO.
Recent win: 9 of the 10 winners won at least one race in their last four starts.
Race type LTO: All of the last 10 winners raced at class 1 level LTO.
Time off track: Horses that have been off the track for 6 weeks or less have provided 9 of the last 10 winners.
Running style: 7 of the last 10 winners raced close to or up with the pace.

 

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): 1 wins from 11 for a loss of £8.75 (ROI -79.5%).
Price: Horses priced 22/1 or bigger have produced 0 winners and 0 placed runners from 16 qualifiers.
Distance  LTO: Horses that raced over 1m4f or more LTO have provided 0 winners from 18.

 

GENERAL STATS

Age: 4yos have provided 6 winners from 43 (SR 14%); 5yos have provided 1 winner from 17 (SR 5.9%); 6yos+ have provided 3 winners from 18 (SR 16.7%).

 

Trends analysis: The best starting point is to look for horses that raced in Class 1 company LTO. They have provided most of the runners but they have provided all the winners. Next it is logical to focus on horses that have won at least once in their last four starts. Favourites have a poor record, while horses 3rd and 4th in the betting have done well. True outsiders have a poor record with 0 wins and 0 places for horses priced 22/1 or bigger from 16 runners. In terms of age 5yos have struggled – not really sure why this has been the case.

 

7.05Sandown Henry II Stakes – 2m 78yds (Group2) 4yo+

 

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: Second favourites have provided 4 of the 10 winners. Hence they have proved to be good value producing a profit of £12.25 (ROI +136.1%).
Price: Horses priced between 12/1 and 20/1 have provided 4 winners for a profit of £44.00 (ROI +183.3%).
Race type LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners raced in a either a Group 2 or Group 3 contest LTO.  
Time off track: Horses that have been off the track for 7 months or more have provided 4 winners from 17 for a profit of £34.00 (ROI +220%).
Distance LTO: Horses that raced over 1m5f-1m6f LTO have provided half the winners for a profit of £23.00 (ROI +56.1%).
Jockeys: Frankie Dettori has a good record in the race having won it 3 times from 9 rides.

 

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): 0 wins from 11.
Race type LTO: Horses that raced in a handicap LTO have provided 0 winners and 1 placed horse from 13.
Beaten distance LTO: Horses that were beaten by 20 lengths or more LTO have provided 0 winners from 16.

 

GENERAL STATS

Age: 4yos have provided 4 winners from 33 runners (SR 12.1%); 5yos have provided 1 winner from 19 (SR 5.3%); 6yos have provided 3 winners from 13 (SR 23.1%); 7yos+ have provided 2 winners from 30 (SR 6.7%).

 

Trends analysis: Favourites have a dreadful recent record, with the value lying with second favourites, or with horses priced 12/1 to 20/1. It has been an advantage to have run in Group 2 or 3 company LTO, while a long break has also tended to be a positive. Frankie Dettori has a good record in the race and his three winners have been for different trainers. In terms of  age there is no discernable pattern.

 

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