Good day today – the Brighton 6.00 has just finished with Channon’s poor value forecast favourite Print being unplaced. This record continues to be woeful at this venue in handicaps.

The trade on For Life in the 3.10 Folkestone would have been successful if you arbed rather than tried to nick a free bet. He was around 10s on Betfair pre race and traded as low as 3.2 (to over £500). He led before being collared late in the race.

When looking for decent bets I often look to try and find a race with a poor value favourite – or at least a favourite I deem to be poor value! One race where we have a potential poor value favourite is the 6.00 at Brighton. Mick Channon’s runner Print won last time out and is currently favourite at 3/1. However, Channon’s record in handicaps at Brighton is woeful – just 7 wins from his last 154 runners. Of these, he has had 2 winning favourites from 12; 0 winning 2^nd favourites from 25. Admittedly this is not a strong race, but I would be happy to look elsewhere in this contest.

The 3.10 at Folkestone probably gives us our best “in running” trading / arbing option. For Life is a bigger price than I expected (thought he would be around 5/1 and not 10/1), and hence gives us decent scope to back pre race and lay off “in running” – either for a bet to nothing; or an arb to win regardless of result. He is 10/1 on Betfair currently, but also 10/1 Best odds guaranteed at William Hills, Ladbrokes and Stan James. Surely he will trade lower than 10s “in running” as he is a prominent racer drawn ideally in 2.

Quick apology – it was Hail Promenader (not Commander) who I emntioned yesterday – as it turned out he ran poorly anyway! The other three horses mentioned as each way options ran 2nd at 11/2; 3rd at 8/1 and 4th at 9/2. So 2 out of 3 and a near miss.

No all age handicap sprints today so no real ”in running” angles today. However, here are some thoughts and stats for today.

2.55 Pontefract – both Henry Cecil and Sir Michael Stoute has strike rates in excess of 30% at the course and both have runners in this race. Raqueeb for Stoute and Plato for Cecil. Priced 13/2 and 7/1 respectively. There is a solid enough looking odds on favourite in Lion Mountain but both Raqueeb and Plato offer some each way value. Which one is the question!? Of course both may finish in the first three! 

5.05 Ascot – Hail Commander is around 5/1 which looks fair value to me in a competitive looking race.

7.35 Kempton – Trainer Henry Candy has a good record with this type of horse (3yos running early season) and Vanilla Rum is his runner in this. Draw 1 is not good though, but at 10/1 he may offer some each way appeal.

Pretty poor stuff on Tuesday to be honest. The 6.05 at Nottingham may give an arbing/trading opportunity on Thoughtsofstardom but the current price of around 5.5 is a bit tight. If low draws are favoured then Style Award is well handicapped. At around 20/1 this would be fair value if at least 16 stay in.

David Pipe continues in good form. Helen Wood his one runner today did not win but ran a great race to finish 2nd at 12/1.

The arb on Angle of Attack did not materialise as he did not lead. However, in the 2.30 at Wolves I arbed Ten Down – another front runner to make up for it.

Anyone who is a member of my sister site www.punterprofits.com will be delighted with the 4/1 winner today for the National Hunt portfolio.

Monday 27^th April

There looks a potential “in running” arb / trade today in the first race at Newcastle (2.10). Angle of Attack often front runs and from stall 16 (right next to the stands’ rail) he should either lead or race a clear second for a good proportion of the race. This should give traders the opportunity to assure either a free bet to nothing during the race, or a win either way with an arb. For those who are not sure what an arb is it is when you get a situation where you win regardless of result. For “in running” punters this usually happens when you back a horse pre race, and then it back at shorter odds but to bigger money “in running”.  The shame about Angle of Attack is that it is now around 11/2 when you could have got bit and pieces of 11 and 12/1 on Betfair early doors.

We have two potential front runners in the 4.10 at Newcastle in Strike Up the Band and Captain Dunne. Both will probably trade shorter “in running” even if they take each other on for the lead. However, a more conservative arb/trade is probably the order of the day.

For National Hunt fans trainer David Pipe is in cracking form with 11 wins and 8 placed runners in the last 14 days. He has just one runner today – Helen Wood in the 3.20 at Towcester.

Hopefully will add further thoughts on my blog later today.

Saturday review – Lost in Paris traded at 1.5 in running having been backed during the day – so was a really good arb as suggested. Anyone employing this idea should have made a tidy profit on the race. I won’t be on line tomorrow (Sunday) as the racing looks poor so will back on Monday.

Saturday 24th April 2010

Yesterday the Racing Trends positive flat trainer stats nailed winners at 4/1 and 9/2 which is pleasing.

6 meetings today to get your teeth into. But with all Saturdays the racing is competitive and you still need to be selective. Most interesting race for me today is the 2.50 at Ripon. This 5f handicap could see the field split into two groups. At the last meeting, the 6f handicap saw high draws favoured, while low draws did best in the 5f race that day. However, the 6f race had more runners that day and hence there was less ground to lose by switching across to the far side. There are 13 runners today (hopefully) which means Lost in Paris (drawn 13) could be interesting if taken far side. David Allen is a decent jock IMO and I hope he heads straight for that far rail. Lost in Paris as a front runner has the potential to trade lower “in running” especially if he leads a small group up the far side. Hence I will be looking to back pre race and lay off for arb “in running”. If I am right, then this will secure a profit whatever the result.

Sat 24 Apr 2010

Best races for favourites  

1.00, 1.30, 2.30, 4.50 Sandown

4.00 Ripon

4.40 Leicester

7.50 Wolverhampton

8.05 Haydock

Trainer stat to note

R Hannon – 2yo Auction races over 5f; March to June; must be favourite SR 57.5%; ROI +37.5%

Hannon has a potential qualifier in Bunce (2.35 Leicester) – is currently favourite at 4.4 on Betfair.

Best race for front runners

2.15 Ripon

 Strong course trainer stats 

Leicester

 Ripon  

Market Rasen