1.45 Chester – Leceile  started BSP 9.63 and traded as low as 2.02 “in running”. So an excellent potential trade.

5.05 Chester – Fastnet Storm  started BSP 6.6 and traded at only 6.0. So went shorter but not significant. However, was over 8.0 five mins before the off which would have offered a fair trade.

Two potential lower traders today:

1.45 Chester – Leceile is a front runner who should trade lower “in running” round this tight track.

5.05 Chester – Fastnet Storm was unable to get a soft lead last time. He might well do this time and hence should trade lower “in running”.

Fol Hollow traded lower at around 5.6 but did not lead so did not trade as low as expected. Still a lower trade which is good.

Weds – Fol Hollow (3.15 Chester) – backed him early at 8.0. Has been backed to around 6.8. Not sure why… Anyway even from 6.8 should trade a fair deal lower “in running” froma good draw.

7.00 Catterick – Smalljohn – started 9.67 BSP and traded at 5.0 (surprised it did not trade lower but still traded over 50% below price)

8.30 Catterick – Lost in Paris – won bsp 2.84 so obviously traded lower “in running”. Was well backed all day.

5.30 Bath – Blessed Place – started bsp 36 and led for a long time but only traded at 32.0

5.40 Newcastle – Dhhamaan – won bsp 3.98

 All in all 3 excellent results out of 4.

There look to be some good trading opportunities today with horses that should trade lower “in running”. Clearly the ideal is that the horse wins so that gives maximum return for a free bet / trade / arb. If they don’t win, then the lower they trade “in running” the better.

7.00 Catterick – Smalljohn – an out and out front runner in a small field usually offers good trading potential. In addition he runs over a C&D (course & distance) that favours front runners.

8.30 Catterick – Lost in Paris – another front runner this time over the minimum trip. If he leads early and is still leading after 3f he will trade much lower.

5.30 Bath – Blessed Place – is not getting any younger but he tends to blast off and trade quite a bit shorter “in running”. Unlikely to win but at a current price of 24.0 he should offer money making opportunities ”in running”.

5.40 Newcastle – Dhhamaan - looks likely to grab the rail early and should trade lower “in running”. Is likely to be around 4.0 so the scope for making a decent amount from trading will be harder due to the price.

Yesterday – I suggested that three horses would trade lower “in running”. Here is what happened:

3.00 Kempton – Silver Linnet – Betfair SP was 9 and traded 6.6 – would have gone lower if not for going wide round the bend.

4.00 Kempton – Dens Gift – Betfair SP was 14 and traded 1.01 because he won! So that would have offered a great trade!

5.35 Chepstow – Magic Omen – Betfair SP was 6.2; only traded 6.0. Lower but nowhere near as low as I had hoped.

All in all though a positive start especially with Den’s Gift.

Over the next week I am going to try and predict horses that will trade lower “in running”. If I can accurately do this then we have plenty of scope to make money trading these animals. For this week though I am going to watch and monitor rather than trade (for obvious reasons). Anyway here are my predicions for today with reasons:

3.00 Kempton – Silver Linnet – well drawn front runner over 5f in a small field. Does have competition for the lead with one other horse but am hopeful she has too much early pace. Hence she should trade lower “in running”.

4.00 Kempton – Den’s Gift – has traded lower “in running” in his last 27 starts including 6 losing runs when trading odds-on “in running”. Is a higher price than usual today and has a inexperienced jockey so these are my slight reservations. Having said that I will be surprised if the horses does not trade lower.

5.35 Chepstow – Magic Omen – been knocking on the door and is likely to be ridden up with the pace from a good draw + trainer/jockey combination. I expect this to trade lower.

One of my favourite sprinters is running today – Barney Mc Grew in the 3.55 Newmarket. Best priced 33/1 with Stan James I am having a small each way bet. Ladbrokes go 16/1 and I agree with their price so 33/1 rates as value.

Good start to the Racing Trends Members’ message with a 12/1 winner highlighted in the positive trainer stats (Tartan Gigha). Interestingly though the Betfair SP only paid 11.3 – only 10.3/1. That is very unusual.