I used to post up free horse raying lays here on the free racing blog.
However as profits started to mount up on them full members here thought it would be better for them if only they got them.
Prices on Betfair after all are a commododity of supply and demand.
Full members who pay me are in effect my boss so I had to listen to their concerns and made the lays full member only and now send them to clients via email.
My lays are not hit and hope but rather the result of research I have carried out over several past years of racing.
I intentionally do not wan’t to go into full detail as to the exact methods I use to determine lay selections. I will however say that there is more than one approach involved and that the lays here result from a mini portfolio of different approaches each tested by me as historically past profitable.
A key point to note is that lays posted here are posted up slightly raw.
I list any qualifiers from the methods irrespective of market prices.
The extra research data below however should help you refine a personal strategy for following them based on your own personal outlook.
Some of you may be uncomfortable laying very big odds for example.
Working within certain price bands that are comfortable to you is a very viable approach.
Racing Trends All Weather Lays – An Overview Of Past Results.
Results span from March 27th March 2008 to 18th February 2011.
Overall – win lays
| Lays | Winning lays | SR | Profit to BSP(inc. 5% comm) | ROI |
| 1747 | 1613 | 92.30% | +£537.31 | +30.80% |
So roughly 8 losing lays per 100. Profits to Betfair SP stand at a healthy 30.8%.
Overall – place lays
| Lays | Winning place lays | SR | Profit to BSP(inc. 5% comm) | ROI |
| 1747 | 1323 | 75.70% | +£294.48* | +16.90% |
*The place lay figures take into account actual placed results, but of course occasionally you get non runners which mean that some winning place lays would have turned into losers. My estimate is that profits would stand nearer to +£240.00 (ROI +13.7%).
Course
| Course | Lays | Winning lays | SR | Profit to BSP
(inc. 5% comm) |
ROI |
| Great Leighs | 22 | 20 | 90.91% | +£12.69 | +57.68% |
| Kempton | 275 | 258 | 93.82% | +£65.79 | +23.92% |
| Lingfield | 419 | 388 | 92.60% | +£115.19 | +27.49% |
| Southwell | 462 | 425 | 91.99% | +£209.72 | +45.39% |
| Wolverhampton | 569 | 522 | 91.74% | +£133.92 | +23.54% |
Best returns have been at Southwell (ignoring Great Leighs as racing is no longer held there). Having said that, the course does not seem to make too much difference.
Price – Betfair SP
| BSP Price | Lays | Winning lays | SR | Profit to BSP
(inc. 5% comm) |
ROI |
| odds on | 16 | 4 | 25% | -£5.10 | -31.88% |
| 2.0-2.99 | 45 | 24 | 46.66% | -£9.63 | -21.40% |
| 3.0-3.99 | 77 | 64 | 16.88% | +£29.60 | +38.44% |
| 4.0-5.99 | 167 | 144 | 13.77% | +£47.46 | +28.42% |
| 6.0-7.99 | 165 | 150 | 9.09% | +£53.56 | +32.46% |
| 8.0-10.99 | 198 | 176 | 11.11% | -£14.19 | -7.17% |
| 11.0-14.99 | 190 | 183 | 3.68% | +£91.93 | +48.38% |
| 15.0-20.99 | 213 | 201 | 5.63% | -£2.87 | -1.35% |
| 21.0-29.99 | 183 | 178 | 2.73% | +£44.18 | +24.14% |
| 30.0-49.99 | 171 | 168 | 1.75% | +£50.68 | +29.64% |
| 50+ | 322 | 321 | 0.31% | +£251.69 | +78.16% |
Very short prices under 3.0 (2/1) have actually produced a loss. It seems that prices 3.0 to 7.99 have been the best for laying purposes to date. The advantage of these prices is that a loser does not cause too much damage. Clearly outsiders have a good laying record, but of course one big priced loser puts you back some way. As a layer it depends on your betting philosophy/strategy in terms of whether you lay the really big prices.
Distance
| Distance | Lays | Winning lays | SR | Profit to BSP
(inc. 5% comm) |
ROI |
| 5f | 298 | 273 | 91.61% | +£104.26 | +34.99% |
| 6f | 384 | 357 | 92.97% | +£112.12 | +29.20% |
| 7f | 319 | 300 | 94.04% | +£169.28 | +53.07% |
| 8f | 218 | 200 | 91.74% | +£19.57 | +8.98% |
| 8.5f | 118 | 108 | 91.53% | +£36.43 | +30.87% |
| 9.5f | 52 | 49 | 94.23% | +£34.18 | +65.73% |
| 10f | 115 | 107 | 93.04% | +£8.34 | +7.25% |
| 11f | 17 | 14 | 82.35% | -£7.89 | -46.41% |
| 12f | 181 | 167 | 92.27% | +£85.49 | +47.23% |
| 13f | 3 | 3 | 100% | +£2.85 | +95% |
| 14f | 31 | 27 | 87.10% | -£23.31 | -75.19% |
| 16f | 11 | 8 | 72.73% | -£4.01 | -36.45% |
In general it seems that the shorter trips perhaps offer the best laying opportunities – there are more qualifiers for a start and on runners from 5 to 7f you would have achieved returns of +38.5%. The 7f results look especially interesting – I feel 7f races on the all weather are generally as competitive as you get and hence I am not surprised at the findings.
CONCLUSION
The past results for the all weather lays have produced decent returns. Of course these system results are reporting on the past, not the future. Hopefully they will continue to prove profitable over the long term.
Good news (hopefully) for Racing Trends layers is that I have a similar turf lay system that has produced similar results in pre-testing.