Horse Racing Blog - Racing Trends

Free Cheltenham Stats Download

admin — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 18:35:15 +0000

We have researched the last ten years of Cheltenham and have provided a free download highlighting key stats findings.

The free download is cool but it only covers six of the races at this years Cheltenham Festival.

A full member version is more comprehensive with 19 races examined.

But the good news is there is a free trial running over Cheltenham so you can join for a cost of £0 and read the full version of the Cheltenham Stats Report if you want it.

See ==> Cheltenham Festival Stats for both the free stats download and further free trail info.

Saturday 25th Feb 10 year trends

Dave — Sat, 25 Feb 2012 11:06:55 +0000

4.10 Kempton – Pendil Novices Chase– 2m 4f 110yds (Grade 2)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 5 winning favourites from 11.

Market: The top three in the betting has provided 9 of the last 10 winners.

Course LTO: 5 of the 10 winners raced at Sandown LTO from just 10 qualifiers.

Price: Horses priced 11/2 or shorter have produced 9 of the last 10 winners.

Market LTO: Horses that were in the top two in the betting LTO have provided 8 of the last 10 winners.

Position LTO: Horses that finished 1^st LTO have provided 7 of the 10 winners.

Trainers: Paul Nicholls has won the race 5 times in the last 10 seasons including the 5 of the last 6 renewals. Venetia Williams has had just 2 runners and both have won.

Breeding: French and German breds have combined to win 6 races from 17 qualifiers producing a profit of £15.17 (ROI +89.2%).

Front runners: 4 wins for horses taking an early lead in the race.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 6/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 26 runners for a loss of £13.00 (ROI -50%).

Position LTO: Horses that finished 3^rd or worse LTO have provided just 1 winner from 23 for a loss of £19.50 (ROI -84.8%).

GENERAL STATS

Age: 5 year olds have produced 1 winner from 6 qualifiers (SR 16.7%); 6 year olds

have produced 3 winners from 9 qualifiers (SR 33.3%); 7 year olds have produced

5 winners from 18 qualifiers (SR 27.8%); 8 year olds have produced 1 winner from

13 qualifiers (SR 7.7%); 9 year olds plus have produced 0 winners from 8 qualifiers

(SR 0%).

Trends analysis: This has been a market dominated race so far with favourites having a decent record, and the top three in the betting providing all bar one of the winners. Horses that ran at Sandown LTO deserve close scrutiny as they have provided 50% of the winners from just 18% of the total runners. LTO winners have shown a profit, while Paul Nicholls has an exceptional record in recent times. In terms of age, horses aged 6 and 7 look the ones to concentrate on.

3.25 Newcastle – Eider Handicap Chase – 4m1f (Class 2)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: Second and third favourites have provided 5 of the last 10 winners for a profit of £17.00 (ROI +73.9%).

Price: Horses priced 5/1 to 11/1 have provided 7 of the last 10 winners.

Days since last run: 6 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for 17 days or less.

Weight rank: 9 of the last 10 winners have come from the top 5 in the weights.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): There has been 1 winning favourite from 11 for a loss of £6.00 (ROI -54.6%).

Weight: Horses carrying 10st 10lb or less have provided 1 winner from 82 for a loss of £73.00 (ROI -89%).

Weight rank: Horses 6^th in the weights or lower have provided 1 winner from 98 for a loss of £89.00 (ROI -90.8%).

Price: Horses priced 20/1 or bigger have provided 1 winner from 58 qualifiers.

Breeding: British bred runners have provided just 2 winners from 50.

Position LTO: Horses that failed to finish LTO have provided 1 winner from 26.

GENERAL STATS

Age: 6 and 7 year olds have produced 0 winners from 12 qualifiers (SR 0%); 8 year

olds have produced 3 winners from 25 qualifiers (SR 12%); 9 year olds have

produced 4 winners from 39 qualifiers (SR 10.3%); 10 year olds have produced 2

winners from 44 qualifiers (SR 4.6%); 11 year olds plus have produced 1 winner

from 34 (SR 2.9%).

Trends analysis: The strongest bias in this race seems to be in terms of weight carried. The top 5 in the weights have an excellent record, especially when you consider the average field size has been over 14. Favourites have struggled and the value has been with those priced 5/1 to 11/1. Age wise it looks that 8 and 9 year olds have an edge.

Haydock 10 year trends – Saturday

Dave — Sat, 21 Jan 2012 11:01:19 +0000

1.45 Haydock – Champion Hurdle Trial (Grade 2) – 2m

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 7 of the last 10 winners have come from the top two in the betting.

Price: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 7/1 or shorter.

Market LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners were in the top three in the betting LTO.

Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO.

Course LTO: All of the last 10 winners raced at a Grade 1 track LTO.

Class LTO: 4 of the last 10 winners raced in a Grade 1 event LTO from just 11 qualifiers. Backing them all would have produced a profit of £9.00 (ROI +81.8%).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 14/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 22 (only 3 have placed).

Running style: No runner has managed to make all the running.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites: There have been 4 winning favourites from 10 qualifiers showing a loss of £1.20 (ROI -12%).

Age: 4 year olds have produced 0 winners from 1 qualifier (SR 0%); 5 year olds have produced 2 winners from 5 qualifiers (SR 40%); 6 year olds have produced 3 winners from 15 qualifiers (SR 20%); 7 year olds have produced 1 winner from 12 qualifiers (SR 8.3%); 8 year olds have provided 1 winner from 9 qualifiers (SR 11.1%), 9 & 10 year olds have provided 3 winners from 14 qualifiers (21.4%); 11 year olds plus have provided 0 winners from 7 (SR 0%).

Breeding: French breds have provided 4 winners from 16 (SR 25%); British breds have provided 3 winners from 21 (SR 14.3%), Irish breds have provided 3 winners from 25 (SR 12%).

Trainers: No trainer has managed to win the race more than once.

Trends analysis: The market is a decent guide with 90% of the winners priced 7/1 or shorter. A run at a Grade 1 track LTO has been key with all 10 winners sharing that stat. Horses that finished in the first three LTO are worth close scrutiny as are those that were in the top three in the betting on the most recent start. In terms of age there are no clear patterns.

3.30 Haydock – Peter Marsh Chase (Grade 2 Limited handicap) – 3m

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: Third to fifth in the betting market have provided 7 winners from 33 qualifiers for a profit of £45.00 (ROI +136.4%).

Price: 7 of the last 10 winners were priced between 4/1 and 8/1.

Recent wins: All of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last five starts.

Days since last run: 8 of the last 10 winners had raced within the last month.

Course winners: 5 of the last 10 winners had previously won at Haydock.

LTO course: 8 of the last 10 winners raced LTO at either Haydock or Wetherby. Backing all runners would have produced 8 winners from 28 for a profit of £52.75 (ROI +188.4%).

Running style: 5 of the last 10 winners have led early and made most or all of the running.

Trainers: Venetia Williams has saddled 2 winners and a third from 5 runners. Sue Smith has saddled two winners and 2 placed from 7.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites: There has been 1 winning favourite from 10 qualifiers showing a loss of £6.75 (ROI -67.5%).

Breeding: French breds have a poor record in the race with just 1 success from 24 runners for a loss of £17.00 (ROI -70.8%).

GENERAL STATS

Age: 6 year olds have produced 0 winners from 1 qualifier (SR 0%); 7 year olds have produced 0 winners from 12 qualifiers (SR 0%); 8 year olds have produced 4 winners from 22 qualifiers (SR 18.2%); 9 year olds have produced 2 winners from 24 qualifiers (SR 8.3%); 10 year olds have produced 3 wins from 17 qualifiers (SR 17.6%); 11 year olds plus have produced 1 win from 13 qualifiers (SR 7.7%).

Trends analysis: The best starting point is to look for horses that have won at least once in their last five starts as they have provided all of the last 10 winners. In terms of price, the most successful ‘bracket’ has been between 4/1 and 8/1. Two other strong positives are horses that raced at either Haydock or Wetherby last time out, and those that have raced within the month. From a negative perspective, it seems best to avoid horses that are French bred and favourites have also struggled in recent years.

10 year trends Sandown Sat 7th Jan 2012

Dave — Sat, 07 Jan 2012 10:36:31 +0000

1.35 Sandown – 32Red Poker Juvenile Hurdle – class 4 (2m ½f)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites: There has been 5 winning favourites from 10 and backing all selections would have produced a profit of 86 pence (ROI +8.6%).

Price: 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 8/1 or shorter. (N.B. the other two winners were at 50/1 and 66/1).

Days since last run: Horses that had last raced between 8 and 14 days previously have provided 4 of the last 10 winners from just 11 runners.

Position LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO.

Market LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners were favourite or second favourite LTO.

Running style: 7 of the last 10 winners raced close to or up with the pace (3 made all).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Sex of horse: 0 wins from 13 for female runners.

Price LTO: Horses priced 25/1 or bigger LTO have provided 0 winners from 26.

Distance beaten LTO: Horses beaten 20 lengths or more LTO have provided just 1 winner from 39 qualifiers.

GENERAL STATS

Trainers: No trainer has saddled the winner more than once.

Trends analysis: Favourites have a good record and despite two big priced winners the market tends to get it right. Past market data has proved useful also with 7 winners having been favourite or second favourite LTO. Good recent form is a plus with 70% of the winners having finished in the first three LTO. In terms of negatives, horses well beaten LTO have a poor record, as do female runners.

2.05 Sandown – 32Red Handicap Chase – Class 2 (2m)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 6 of the last 10 winners were second or third favourites.

Price: 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 11/2 or shorter.

Weight rank: 7 of the last 10 winners were 3^rd to 5yh in the weights.

Position LTO: 4 of the last 10 winners have finished 6^th or worse LTO.

LTO favourites: Horses that were favourite LTO have provided 5 winners from 15 for a profit of £4.25 (ROI +28.3%).

Distance beaten LTO: Horses beaten 20 lengths or more LTO have provided 5 winners from 22 runners for a profit of £17.25 (ROI +78.4%).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market: Favourites have provided 2 winners from 10 for a loss of £3.50 (ROI -35%).

Market: Horses 4^th in the betting or bigger have provided just 2 winners from 42.

Headgear: 0 wins from 11 for horses wearing headgear.

Breeding: French bred runners have provided just 1 winner from 19 qualifiers for a loss of £15.75 (ROI -82.9%).

GENERAL STATS

Age: 5 & 6 year olds have produced 1 winner from 2 qualifiers (SR 50%); 7 year olds have produced 0 winners from 11 qualifiers (0%); 8 year olds have produced 5 winners from 22 qualifiers (SR 22.7%); 9 year olds have produced 3 winners from 22 (SR 13.6%); 10 year olds have produced 1 winner from 17 (SR 5.9%).

Trends analysis: this race has favoured second and third favourites, while the actual market leaders have provided poor value. LTO form has not been that important with 5 of the winners having been beaten by 20 lengths or more on their most recent outing. 7 of the last 10 winners were ranked 3^rd to 5^th in the weights, while in terms of age, 8 year olds have done best, with horses 10 or older having struggled.

Sat 31st Dec – 10 year trends 3.05 Newbury

Dave — Fri, 30 Dec 2011 22:17:31 +0000

3.05 Newbury – Grade 1 Challow Novices’ Hurdle – 2m5f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 5 winning favourites from 11 qualifiers showing a profit of £1.58 (ROI +14.4%).

Market: 8 of the last 10 winners have been from the top two in the betting.

Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 7/1 or shorter.

Market LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners were favourite LTO.

Position LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners won LTO.

Course LTO: 5 of the last 10 winners raced at Cheltenham LTO (from only 17 qualifiers).

Trainers: Jonjo O’Neill has saddled 3 winners; 2 wins a piece for Paul Nicholls and Nick Williams.

Jockeys: 4 wins from 6 rides for Tony Mc Coy.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market: Horses 5^th or lower in the betting market have provided 0 winners from 36.

GENERAL STATS

Age: 4 year olds have produced 2 winners from 20 qualifiers (SR 10%); 5 year olds have produced 6 winners from 31 qualifiers (SR 19.4%); 7 year olds plus have won 2 from 26 qualifiers (7.7%).

Trends analysis: A race where positive trends are by far the strongest. Favourites have a decent record, and the market has been a good guide with all 10 winners being priced 7/1 or shorter. LTO market position has been an excellent indicator with 9 of the last 10 winners being favourite on their most recent start. To put that in perspective LTO favourites have provided 905 of the winners from only 43% of the total runners. Jonjo O’Neill has a good record in the race, as does champion jockey Ttony Mc Coy. In terms of age, 5 year olds seem to hold the edge.

10 year trends 2.00 Huntingdon

Dave — Thu, 08 Dec 2011 10:34:44 +0000

2.00 Huntingdon – Peterborough Chase – 2 miles 4f (Grade 2)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 5 winning favourites (including joints) from 11.

Market: 9 of the last 10 winners came from the top three in the betting. Indeed, 16 of the last 17 winners matched that stat.

Price: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 5/1 or shorter.

Position LTO: Horses that won LTO have provided 5 of the last 10 winners. Backing all 13 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £13.76 (ROI +105.8%).

Recent wins: 7 of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last four starts (that stretches to 14 out of last 17).

Running style: 6 wins from 10 for horses that have taken the early lead – worth noting if you play “in running”.

Trainers: Henrietta Knight has a remarkable record with 5 wins from 7 runners. Going back to 1998 this becomes 8 wins from 10.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 11/2 or bigger have produced just 1 winner from 38 runners for a loss of £25.00 (ROI -65.8%).

Running style: Hold up horses have been successful just once from 22 so in play punters be wary.

GENERAL STATS

Age: 5/6 year olds have won 3 races from 9 qualifiers (SR 33.3%); 7 year olds have won 3 races from 11 qualifiers (SR 27.3%); 8 year olds have won 1 race from 21 qualifiers (SR 4.8%); 9 year olds and older have won 3 races from 24 qualifiers (SR 12.5%).

Trends analysis: favourites have a solid record, and it is best to concentrate on horses priced 5/1 or shorter as they have provided 9 of the last 10 winners (16 of last 17). Next stop is to see if trainer Henrietta Knight has a runner as her 5 wins from 7 is rather eye-catching! Last time out winners demand respect, while in terms of age there has been a mix of winners, with 5 and 6 year olds doing well from a handful of runners.

10 year trends Ascot (Saturday)

Dave — Sat, 19 Nov 2011 10:25:42 +0000

2.45 Ascot – Coral Ascot Hurdle 2m 3½f (Grade 2)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc joints): There have been 6 winning favourites from 12 and backing all selections would have produced a profit of £2.88 (ROI +24%).

Market: 9 of the last 10 winners have come from the top two of the betting.

Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 7/2 or shorter. Backing all 25 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £6.46 (ROI +25.8%).

Market LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners were priced 11/2 or shorter LTO.

Position LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners won LTO (from only 17 runners).

Trainers: 2 wins a piece for Dessie Hughes, Nicky Henderson and Francois Doumen.

Course winners: 4 wins and 3 placed runs from 15 runs for previous course winners.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 4/1 or bigger have produced 0 winners from 40 runners.

Breeding: Just 1 win from 15 for British bred runners.

GENERAL STATS

Age: 4 year olds have produced 2 winners from 5 qualifiers (SR 40%); 5 year olds have produced 1 winner from 11 qualifiers (SR 9.1%); 6 year olds have produced 2 winners from 16 qualifiers (SR 12.5%); 7 year olds have produced 2 wins from 14 (SR 14.3%); 8 year olds plus have produced 3 wins from 19 (SR 15.8%).

Trends analysis: this race has an impressive roll of honour with winners including Dawn Run, Gaye Brief, Morley Street, Baracouda and Hardy Eustace. Favourites have a good record and should be the first port of call, with second favourites also respected. A previous course win is a plus, while age wise, there is a wide age-range in terms of winners and hence there seems no edge to found there. LTO winners have done well so they require close scrutiny too.

3.20 Ascot – Carey Group Handicap Chase 2m 1f (Grade 2)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites: There have been 5 winning favourites from 10 producing a profit of £4.92 (ROI +49.2%).

Market: 9 of the last 10 winners have come from the top four of the betting.

Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 8/1 or shorter.

Days since last run: 7 of the last 10 winners had run within the last 3 weeks.

Weight rank: 8 of the last 10 winners have come from the top 4 of the weights.

Market LTO: 5 of the last 10 winners were favourites LTO.

Price LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 15/2 or shorter LTO.

Position LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners came first or second LTO.

Trainers: 2 wins for Paul Nicholls (from 6 runners) and 2 wins for Nicky Henderson (from 5 runners).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 17/2 or bigger have produced 0 winners from 28 runners.

Headgear: 0 wins from 15 for horses wearing any type of headgear.

GENERAL STATS

Age: 5 year olds have produced 1 winner from 4 qualifiers (SR 25%); 6 year olds have produced 4 winners from 13 qualifiers (SR 30.8%); 7 year olds have produced 2 winners from 16 qualifiers (SR 12.5%); 8 year olds have produced 3 wins from 16 (SR 18.8%); 9 year olds plus have produced 0 wins from 23 (SR 0%).

Trends analysis: this race is dominated by positive stats. Favourites have a decent record especially considering it is a handicap. Indeed in general the market has got it right with all of the winners being priced 8/1 or shorter. In terms of weight, the top 4 weights have had a clear edge, and if you restrict these higher weighted runners to only those priced 8/1 or shorter you would have pinpointed 8 winners from a shortlist of just 32. In terms of age it looks best to avoid horses aged 9 or older.

10 year trends Cheltenham – Sat/Sun

Dave — Sat, 12 Nov 2011 10:49:50 +0000

Paddy Power trends for 4 races

Saturday 1.20 – JCB Triumph Novices’ hurdle (Grade 2) – 2m½f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 7 of the last 10 winners have come from the top 2 in the betting (4 wins for favourites).

Price: Horses priced 11/2 or shorter have won 8 of the last 10 races.

Price LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 8/1 or shorter LTO.

Position LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners won LTO.

Sires: The sire Kalanisi has had 4 runners of which 2 have won and 1 other has

placed.

Trainers: 2 wins a piece for Alan King and Paul Nicholls.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Sex of horse: 15 fillies have taken part and none have won.

Price: Horses priced 11/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 65.

Breeding: British bred runners have provided just 1 winner from 32 runners for a loss of £26.50 (ROI -82.8%).

GENERAL STATS

Breeding: Irish bred runners have won 50% of the races from 34% of the total runners.

Trends analysis: this has been a market dominated race with the top 2 in the betting dominating. Indeed it seems that you can draw a line through around half the runners as 10/1 has been the cut-off point (all 10 winners priced 10/1 or shorter). LTO winners have a solid record and trainers Alan King and Paul Nicholls should be respected. In terms of negatives, both British bred runners and fillies look worth avoiding.

Saturday 2.35 – Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase (Grade 3) – 2m4½ f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites: 4 of the last 10 winners have been favourite and backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £9.25 (ROI +92.5%).

Price: Horses priced between 12/1 and 20/1 have provided 4 winners.

Market LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners were favourite or second favourite LTO.

Price LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 13/2 or shorter LTO.

Position LTO: 5 of the last 10 winners won LTO.

Trainers: 4 wins for the Pipe stable, but none since David took over from his father.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Course LTO: Horses that raced at Aintree LTO have provided just 1 winner from 31 for a loss of £25.50 (ROI -82.3%).

Handicap LTO: Horses that raced in a handicap LTO have provided 3 winners from 116 for a loss of £91.75 (ROI -79.1%).

Breeding: British bred runners have provided 0 winners from 37.

GENERAL STATS

Age: 5 year olds have produced 0 winners from 11 qualifiers (SR 0%); 6 year olds have produced 2 winners from 27 qualifiers (SR 7.4%); 7 year olds have produced 5 winners from 42 qualifiers (SR 11.9%); 8 year olds have provided 2 winners from 40 qualifiers (SR 5%); 9 year olds plus have provided 1 winner from 39 qualifiers (SR 2.6%).

Trends analysis: favourites have a good record, but also so do runners priced 12/1 to 20/1. A better market to take note of is the LTO market for each runner as 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 13/2 or shorter on their most recent start. LTO winners have a fairly good record, while runners that have poor records include horses aged 9 and older, British bred runners and horses that raced in a handicap LTO.

Sunday 1.10 – Independent Newspaper Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) – 2 miles

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites: There have been 5 winning favourites from 10 qualifiers showing a small profit of 81 pence.

Market: 8 of the last 10 winners came from the top two in the market.

Days since last run: 9 of the last 10 winners had raced within the last 5 weeks (35 days).

Position LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners won last time out.

Market LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners were favourites on their most recent start. Backing all such runners would have produced a profit of £8.81 (ROI +44.1%).

Price: Horses priced 100/30 or shorter LTO have provided 8 of last 10 winners.

Price LTO: Horses priced 9/4 or shorter LTO have provided 9 of the last 10 winners.

Running style: 8 of the last 10 runners have either led early or raced close to the pace.

Trainers: Paul Nicholls has had 5 winners from 12 runners.

Breeding: Only 4 German bred horses have contested the race but all 4 have won!

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 11/1 or bigger have produced 0 winners from 19 runners.

GENERAL STATS

Age: 4 year olds have produced 2 winners from 8 qualifiers (SR 25%); 5 year olds have produced 2 winners from 14 qualifiers (SR 14.3%); 6 year olds have produced 5 winners from 16 qualifiers (SR 31.3%); 7 year olds plus have provided 1 winner from 22 qualifiers (SR 4.5%).

Trends analysis: A good starting point is to simply focus on the top two in the betting who have provided 80% of the winners. It is also worthwhile looking at the market of their last run as horses that were priced 9/4 or shorter LTO have an excellent record. Last time out winners have performed well, while for ‘in running’ punters it has been a big advantage to race up with the pace. Trainer wise, Paul Nicholls has an excellent record in the race with 5 wins including the last 3 renewals. In terms of age 6yos have done well, while 7yos and older have not.

Sunday 2.20 – The Greatwood Handicap Hurdle Race (Grade 3) – 2m ½f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 7 of the last 10 winners have come from the top 2 in the betting. 2^nd favourites have provided of those winners for a profit of £16.00 (ROI +177.8%).

Price: Horses priced 9/1 or shorter have provided 9 of the last 10 winners.

Market position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners were in the top 3 of the betting LTO.

Price LTO: Horses priced 9/2 or shorter last time out have provided 8 of the last 10 winners.

Age: 5 year olds have a good record with 6 wins from 47 qualifiers for a profit of £12.70 (ROI +27%).

Weight rank: The top weight or joint top weight has won the race 4 times from just 12 runners.

Trainers: 3 wins for the Phillip Hobbs stable.

Running style: 7 of the 10 winners were “held up” off the pace.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Position LTO: Horses who finished 6th or worse LTO have provided 0 winners from 31.

Price: Horses priced 10/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 87.

Age: 4 year olds have registered 1 win from 26 runners; 8 year olds plus have produced just 1 winner from 23 runners.

Conditional Jockeys: 0 wins from 32 for horses ridden by conditional jockeys.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 3 winning favourites (including joints) from 11 producing a small loss of £2.09.

Trends analysis: This tends to be a market dominated race with 7 of the last 10 winners being from the top two of the betting, and just 1 winner from 87 for horses priced in double figures. Top weights have won 40% of the races which is unusual for a competitive handicap, especially considering the average field size has been 13. In terms of age 5 year olds have done particularly well. For “in running” punters hold up horses have performed best.

10 year trends – Ascot (Saturday)

Dave — Fri, 30 Sep 2011 17:52:52 +0000

2.05 Ascot – Cornwallis Stakes – 5f (Group 3) 2yo

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: The top five in the betting have provided all 10 winners.

Price: All of the winners have been priced 12/1 or shorter.

Days since last run: Horses off the track for between 22 and 29 days have provided 6 of the last 10 winners.

Position LTO: 5 of the last 10 winners won LTO. Backing all 27 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £14.25 (ROI +52.8%).

Market position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners were in the top 3 of the betting LTO.

Distance LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners raced over 5f LTO.

Running style: 9 of the last 10 winners raced up with or close to the pace.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 14/1 or bigger have produced 0 winners from 64.

Days since last run: Horses off the track for 21 days or less have provided just 1 winner from 50 runners for a loss of £37.00 (ROI -74%).

Handicaps LTO: Horses that raced in a handicap LTO have provided 0 winners from 20.

Beaten distance LTO: Horses that were beaten by 5 or more lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 40.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites: 2 wins from 10 for a loss of £1.75 (ROI -17.5%).

Sex of horse: Male runners have provided 6 winners from 82 (SR 7.3%); females have won 4 races from 46 (SR 8.7%).

Trends analysis: This has essentially been a market driven race with all of the winners from the top 5 in the betting, and no winners from 64 runners for horses priced 14/1 or bigger. Other positives include a run over 5f LTO, a position in the top 3 in the betting LTO and time off the track of between 22 and 29 days. In terms of negatives, horses that were beaten by 5 or more lengths LTO have a poor record as do horses that raced in a handicap LTO.

2.40 Ascot – Cumberland Lodge – 1m4f (Group 3) 3yo+

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites: 7 wins from 10 for a profit of £6.63 (ROI +66.3%).

Market: All 10 winners have come from the top 2 in the betting.

Price: Horses priced 7/2 or shorter have provided all of the last 10 winners.

Position LTO: Horses that finished won LTO have provided 7 of the last 10 winners.

Days since last run: 7 of the last 10 winners had last raced between 15 and 22 days ago.

Breeding: 7 wins from 31 for British bred runners; 3 wins from 8 for USA bred runners.

Trainers: Marcus Tregoning has won the race 5 times from just 6 runners!

Course LTO: Only 12 horses raced at Doncaster LTO but 5 have come on to win here.

Price LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 5/1 or shorter LTO.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Breeding: 0 wins from 25 for Irish bred runners.

Market: 0 wins from 49 for horses 3^rd or bigger in the betting market.

Beaten distance LTO: Horses that were beaten by 2 or more lengths LTO have provided just 1 winner from 34 for a loss of £30.00 (ROI -88.2%).

GENERAL STATS

Age: 3yos have provided 3 winners from 14 (SR 21.4%); 4yos have provided 5 winners from 29 (SR 17.2%); 5yos+ have provided 2 winners from 28 (SR 7.1%).

Trends analysis: In recent years this race has been totally dominated by the top two in the betting, with favourites having an outstanding record. LTO winners are also worth noting having won 70% of the races from just 24% of the total runners. Trainer Marcus Tregoning clearly targets this race as he has saddled the winner an amazing 5 times from only 6 runners. In terms of breeding, British and American bred runners have won all the races between them, with Irish bred runners really struggling. In terms of age, 3 and 4yos definitely have the edge over their older rivals.

3.15 Ascot – Bengough Stakes – 6f (Group 3) 3yo+

POSITIVE TRENDS

Price: 8 of the last 10 winners have been priced between 6/1 and 16/1.

LTO winners: 4 of the last 10 winners won LTO. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a small profit of £3.50 (ROI +11.3%).

LTO price: 7 of the last 10 winners were priced 8/1 or shorter LTO.

Trainers: 2 wins a piece for Chris Wall and Saeed Bin Suroor.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 13 for a loss of £4.00 (ROI -30.8%).

Price: 0 wins from 61 for horses priced 20/1 or bigger.

Days since last run: Horses off the track for 21 days or less have provided 3 winners but from 88 runners for a loss of £59.00 (ROI -59%).

Position LTO: 32 runners finished 2^nd or 3^rd LTO and none have gone on to win here.

Handicaps LTO: Horses that raced in a handicap LTO have provided just 1 winner from 40 qualifiers for a loss of £23.00 (ROI -57.5%).

Course LTO: Horses that ran at Newmarket LTO have provided 0 winners from 23. Horses coming from Ascot LTO have produced 2 winners, but from 49 qualifiers.

Headgear: Horses wearing any type of headgear (blinkers, tongue tie, cheekpieces etc) have provided just 1 winner from 34 for a loss of £27.00 (ROI -79.4%).

GENERAL STATS

Age: 3yos have provided 2 winners from 37 (SR 5.4%); 4yos have provided 4 winners from 39 (SR 10.3%); 5yos have provided 2 winners from 34 (SR 5.9%); 6yos have provided 2 winners from 21 (SR 9.5%); 7yos+ have provided 0 winners from 20 (SR 0%).

Sex of horse: Male runners have provided 8 winners from 132 (SR 6.1%); females have won 2 races from 19 (SR 10.5%).

Trends analysis: It should be noted that this race has slightly stronger negative trends than positive ones. Horses wearing headgear have a poor record as do runners that raced at either Ascot or Newmarket LTO. In addition horses returning to the track within 3 weeks have a below average record. It terms of price it looks best to focus on prices between 6/1 and 16/1 as they have provided 80% of the winners from around 45% of the total runners. Age wise there are no clear trends although horses aged 7 or older look worth avoiding.

10 year trends Saturday

Dave — Sat, 24 Sep 2011 11:23:06 +0000

2.35 Newmarket – Cheveley Park Stakes – 6f (Group 1) 2yo fillies

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): 5 wins from 11 for a profit of £7.03 (ROI +63.9%).

Market: The top 3 in the betting have provided 9 of the last 10 winners.

Price: 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 11/2 or shorter.

LTO winners: Horses that won last time out have produced 8 of the 10 winners with the other 2 winners having finished 2^nd.

Price LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 7/1 or shorter LTO.

Running style: 9 of the last 10 winners have been ridden close to or up with the pace.

Trainers: Brian Meehan has saddled 2 winners and 2 placed horses from 6.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 14/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 49.

Position LTO: Horses finishing third or worse last time out have produced 0 winners from 36.

Trainers: 0 wins from 19 for Irish trained horses.

LTO favourites: There have been 19 runners that have come into this race having been beaten as favourites last time out and all have lost.

GENERAL STATS

Distance LTO: Horses that raced over 6f LTO have provided 9 of the last 10 winners, but nearly 80% of the total runners had run over 6f LTO.

Trends analysis: An interesting set of statistics in a race that has been dominated by the top 3 in the betting with favourites having a very good recent record. LTO winners have dominated the race somewhat unsurprisingly perhaps, and it seems you can dismiss any runner that failed to finish in the first two on their latest start. Beaten favourites and Irish runners also look best avoided.

3.10 Newmarket – Sun Chariot Stakes 1 mile (Group 1) – 3yo+ (fillies / mares only)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Price: 6 of the last 10 winners were priced between 7/1 and 16/1. Backing all 36 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £38.00 (ROI +105.6%).

Position LTO: All of the last 10 winners finished in the first four on their most recent start.

Race type LTO: Horses raced in raced in Group 3 or Listed company LTO have provided 6 winners from 42 for a profit of £26.63 (ROI +63.4%).

Time off track: 5 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for at least 9 weeks.

Running style: 4 wins for the horses that has taken the early lead.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites: There have been 2 winning favourites from 10 showing a loss of £4.13 (ROI -41.3%).

LTO beaten distance: Horses beaten 3 or more lengths on their most recent start have produced just 1 winner from 36 qualifiers. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a loss of £30.5 (ROI –84.7%).

GENERAL STATS

Age: 3yos have won 7 races from 55 runners (SR 12.7%); 4yos have won

2 races from 25 runners (SR 8.0%); 5yos and older have won 1 race from 14 (SR 7.1%).

Breeding: 3 wins from 12 for US bred runners (albeit 2 wins for the same horse).

Trends analysis: There have been 0 winners priced 20/1 or bigger, but the value has lain with slightly bigger priced – those priced 7/1 to 16/1. Favourites have a very moderate record despite winning the race last year. A decent run LTO looks important with all 10 winners having finished in the first four LTO. A run at Group 3 or Listed level seems a plus as I would suspect some of the runners are under-estimated. In terms of age, 3yos provide a good majority of the runners, but they do seem to hold a slight edge over their older compatriots.