COURSE FAVOURITE STATS FLAT

 

Doncaster favourites

Race type Wins Bets SR (%) Profit ROI (%) Race Times
2yo maidens 25 83 30.1 -£21.76 -26.2 2.50
3yo+ maidens 6 25 24.0 -£14.03 -56.1 2.20
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 64 296 21.6 -£33.22 -11.2 1.50, 3.25, 4.00, 4.35, 5.10, 5.45

 

Newmarket favourites

Race type Wins Bets SR (%) Profit ROI (%) Race Times
2yo maidens 110 286 38.5 +£20.14 +7.0 1.45
3yo handicaps 73 273 26.7 -£1.21 -0.4 2.15, 3.20
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 111 557 19.9 -£111.59 -20.0 2.45, 5.05

 

Ripon favourites

Race type Wins Bets SR (%) Profit ROI (%) Race Times
2yo maidens 32 92 34.8 -£3.17 -3.4 1.55, 5.50
3yo handicaps 28 110 25.5 -£19.52 -17.8 2.25
3yo+ maidens 17 37 46.0 -£2.08 -5.6 4.40
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 44 218 20.2 -£54.29 -24.9 3.30, 4.05, 5.15

 

 

DRAW SECTION – the stats are collated from studying 10+ runner handicaps. Each race is split into three – a top third of the draw, a middle third of the draw and a bottom third of the draw.

 

Course & distance (time) Bottom third win % Middle third win% Top third win%
Doncaster 7f (1.50, 4.00) 32 38 30
Doncaster 5f (4.35) 13 47 40
Lingfield aw 1m2f (5.30) 33 30 36
Lingfield 6f (7.30) 26 26 48
Lingfield 7f140yds (8.00) 38 19 44
Newbury 7f (3.40) 39 31 31
Newmarket 6f (2.45, 3.20) 29 32 39
Ripon 6f (3.30) 34 26 40
Ripon 1m (5.15) 16 26 58

 

Doncaster 5f (4.35) low draws tend to get stuck out mid track and they seem to be at a disadvantage.

 

Lingfield 6f (7.30) high draws have a significant edge here which strengthens on fast ground. Even in this smallish field the higher draw the better.

 

Ripon 6f (3.30) when there are 15 or more runners, high draws tend to do best unless the ground is fast. The softer the better for higher draws.

 

Ripon 1m (5.15) high draws have a decent edge here.

Filed under: Daily Horse Racing Blog

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