Sat 31st Dec – 10 year trends 3.05 Newbury
3.05 Newbury – Grade 1 Challow Novices’ Hurdle – 2m5f
|Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 5 winning favourites from 11 qualifiers showing a profit of £1.58 (ROI +14.4%).|
|Market: 8 of the last 10 winners have been from the top two in the betting.|
|Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 7/1 or shorter.|
|Market LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners were favourite LTO.|
|Position LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners won LTO.|
|Course LTO: 5 of the last 10 winners raced at Cheltenham LTO (from only 17 qualifiers).|
|Trainers: Jonjo O’Neill has saddled 3 winners; 2 wins a piece for Paul Nicholls and Nick Williams.|
|Jockeys: 4 wins from 6 rides for Tony Mc Coy.|
|Market: Horses 5th or lower in the betting market have provided 0 winners from 36.|
|Age: 4 year olds have produced 2 winners from 20 qualifiers (SR 10%); 5 year olds have produced 6 winners from 31 qualifiers (SR 19.4%); 7 year olds plus have won 2 from 26 qualifiers (7.7%).|
Trends analysis: A race where positive trends are by far the strongest. Favourites have a decent record, and the market has been a good guide with all 10 winners being priced 7/1 or shorter. LTO market position has been an excellent indicator with 9 of the last 10 winners being favourite on their most recent start. To put that in perspective LTO favourites have provided 905 of the winners from only 43% of the total runners. Jonjo O’Neill has a good record in the race, as does champion jockey Ttony Mc Coy. In terms of age, 5 year olds seem to hold the edge.
Filed under: Daily Horse Racing Blog
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