After a really busy week, I have at last got some time to share my views on the racing today. The first race I want to look at is the 2.40 at Sandown. The biggest disappointment about this race is that from the 15 runners declared only 12 are left in. Let us hope we do not lose any more as I’m hoping to make use of the draw bias, or at least potential draw bias. High draws tend to have a very good edge when the sprint track is at full width, and that is the case today. The horse I feel is the best value in the race is Gwilym. He is a best priced 12/1 with bet 365 but is 11/1 generally. He has a good record at Sandown with one win one second and two thirds from seven starts. Admittedly, he is on a three pound higher mark than he has ever won off, but I’m hoping that the draw will be enough for him to find that bit extra. He comes here after a short break of just four days and it is interesting to note that when he won at Windsor in June he had run two days previously. He has enough early pace to take advantage of his good draw so although he may not lead I’m expecting him to be in a good position. Going back to his record at Sandown he has never been beaten by more than three lengths, and he has been placed twice of this current mark of 72. It is a competitive race with the likes of The Wee Chief, Efistorm and Grudge, but at the double-figure price he definitely merits interest.

The Nunthorpe stakes (3.25 at York) looks to have plenty of dead wood in it. Star Spangled Banner is the obvious one and is currently a best priced 2/1. Rated 121, he is the highest rated horse in the field. However, I am keen to take him on at the prices and my two against him are going to be Kingsgate Native and Stone of Folca. Kingsgate Native was favourite for this race last year but could only finish sixth and the biggest problem about this horse is he is consistency or should I say lack of consistency! He was impressive in the Temple stakes at Haydock back in May, but has been below par in his two subsequent runs at Ascot and Newmarket. He is a best priced 8/1 and if he is at the top of his game that is going to look a very big price indeed. Stone of Folca gets lumps of weight being a two-year-old and his trainer John Best won this race with the aforementioned Kingsgate native when he was at two-year-old. I think there is some value at around 12/1 especially if he settles better than he did at Goodwood when second in the Molecomb. I will have a little ‘dig’ on him each way.

Filed under: Daily Horse Racing Blog

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