Here are the 10 year trends for today’s big race:

2.25 Ascot – Victor Chandler Chase (Grade 1) – 2m1f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 7 of the last 10 winners came from the top two in the betting.
Market: Second, favourites (including joints) have provided 3 winners from 12 qualifiers for a profit of £4.50 (ROI +37.5%).
Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 12/1 or shorter; 7 of the last 10 winners were priced 5/1 or shorter.
Breeding: French breds have won 6 of the last renewals from 32 qualifiers for a small profit of £6.13 (ROI +19.1%).
Position LTO: Horses that won LTO have provided 7 winners from 23 qualifiers for a profit of £13.25 (ROI +57.6%).
Class LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners raced in Graded or Listed class LTO.
Trainers: 3 wins for Paul Nicholls and 2 for Nicky Henderson.
Course LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners raced at either Wetherby or Sandown LTO (4 a piece).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 14/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 26 (only 4 have placed).
Breeding: Irish breds have won just 2 of the last 10 renewals from 33 qualifiers for a hefty loss of £27.38 (ROI -83%).
Course LTO: Horses that raced Ascot LTO have provided 0 winners from 17.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 4 winning favourites from 10 but backing them all would have yielded a very small loss of 75 pence.
Age: 5 year olds have produced 0 winners from 1 qualifier (SR 0%); 6 year olds have produced 2 winners from 10 qualifiers (SR 20%); 7 years olds have produced 1 win from 17 qualifiers (SR 5.9%); 8 year olds have produced 3 winners from 19 qualifiers (SR 15.8%); 9 year olds have produced 4 winners from 17 qualifiers (SR 23.5%); 10 year olds plus have won 0 from 22 qualifiers (SR 0%).

Trends analysis: Essentially this tends to be a market driven race although backing the favourite would have incurred a small loss. 12/1 is the biggest priced winner during the period of study. In terms of breeding French breds have had a clear edge over the rest, while Irish bred runners have proved to be poor value. LTO winners have performed well, as have horses that raced at Sandown or Wetherby LTO. Also it is a plus to have raced in Graded or Listed LTO. In terms of age, horses aged 10 or older look worth avoiding as not only have they registered 0 wins from 22, all of them have failed to ‘place’ also.

Filed under: Daily Horse Racing Blog

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