2.15 Ayr Silver Cup Handicap – 6f (class 2) 3yo+

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: The top four in the betting have provided 6 of the last 10 winners.
Price: 7 of the last 10 winners have been priced 12/1 or bigger.
Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners finished the first five LTO.
Price LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 9/1 or shorter LTO.
Market LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners came from the top three in the betting LTO (they have produced 80% of the winners from just 31% of the total runners).
Draw: 5 of the last 10 winners have come from the bottom 7 stalls.
Trainers: Dandy Nicholls has been successful in the race 3 times (NB also won the Gold Cup 5 times).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten 5 or more lengths LTO have provided just 1 winner from 101 qualifiers for a loss of £88.00 (ROI -87.1%).
Sex of horse: Fillies and mares have had 26 runners and all have lost.
Headgear: Horses wearing either blinkers, visors or cheekpieces have produced 0 winners from 53.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 11 for a profit of £1.75 (ROI +15.9%).
Age: 3yos have provided 3 winners from 40 runners (SR 7.5%); 4yos have provided 3 winners from 77 (SR 3.9%); 5yos have provided 4 winners from 58 (SR 6.9%); 6yos plus have provided 0 winners from 88 (SR 0%).

Trends analysis: Mixed messages from the market as you would expect from a race that averages 26 runners a year. Looking at the LTO market is actually the best starting point – both the top 3 in the betting LTO and horses 9/1 or less LTO have excellent records scoring twice as often as they statistically should. Also there is a strong negative stat to use in relation to distance beaten LTO – horses beaten 5 lengths or more have a dreadful record and it looks best to put a line through these runners. Dandy Nicholls usually saddles several runners and he deserves respect considering his record not just in this race but in the Gold Cup as well.

2.30 Newbury – Mill Reef Stakes – 6f (Group 2) 2yo

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 8 of the last 10 winners came from the top three in the betting (all 10 came from the top 5).
Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 10/1 or shorter.
Course LTO: Horses that raced at Doncaster LTO have provided 4 winners from 18 runners for a profit of £10.25 (ROI +56.9%).
Market LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners came from the top three in the betting LTO.
Price LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 9/1 or shorter LTO.
Days since last run: Horses that have been off the track for 8 or more weeks have provided 4 winners from just 8 runners.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 11/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 38.
Race class LTO: Horses that raced in class 2 company or lower LTO have provided just 2 winners from 38 qualifiers for a loss of £24.52 (ROI -64.5%).
Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten 4 or more lengths LTO have provided just 1 winner from 23 for a loss of £19.75 (ROI -85.9%).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites: 3 wins from 10 for a profit of 98 pence.
Trainers: Richard Hannon has won the race twice from 10 runners.
Group race LTO: 6 of the 10 winners raced in a Group race LTO – they have provided 60% of the winners from 43% of the total runners.

Trends analysis: This race has tended to favour the more fancied runners with no winner priced over 10/1. Horses that ran at Doncaster LTO have a good record as do runners coming back off a long break of 8 weeks or more. The negatives will help you narrow down your shortlist further so it looks best to avoid horses that raced LTO in class 2 or lower, and those that were beaten by 4 lengths or more LTO.

2.45 Ayr – Firth of Clyde – 6f (Group 3) 2yo fillies

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: The top four in the betting have provided 7 of the last 10 winners.
Price: 4 of the last 10 winners were priced 11/1 or bigger.
Position LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners finished the first four LTO (4 won; 7 finished in first three).
LTO favourite: Horses that were favourite LTO have provided 5 winners from 23 qualifiers for a profit of £48.00 (ROI +208.7%).
Class LTO: Horses that raced in class 2 or lower LTO have provided 7 of the last 10 winners for a profit of £32.25. Indeed, focusing on those qualifiers who finished in the first four LTO they would have produced an even bigger profit of £44.25 (ROI +102.9%).
Days since last run: Horses that have raced within the last month have provided all of the last 10 winners.
Price LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 7/1 or shorter LTO.
Running style: 8 of the last 10 winners raced close to the pace from the outset.
Trainers: Bryan Smart has saddled 2 winners from just 3 runners.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten 6 or more lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 23.
Position LTO: Horses that finished 5th or worse LTO have provided just 1 winner from 36 qualifiers for a loss of £24.00 (ROI -66.7%).
LTO distance: Horses that over 5 furlongs LTO have provided 0 winners from 26.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites: 3 wins from 10 for a small loss of 75 pence.

Trends analysis: The best starting point is to focus on horses that have raced within the last month and finished in the first four. From there look for any runner that raced in class 2 company or lower LTO and/or were priced 7/1 on their previous start. The market has given mixed messages with a fair return for fancied runners, but also 4 double figure priced winners. In terms of negatives it seems best to avoid horses that were beaten 6 lengths or more LTO and those that ran over 5 furlongs LTO.

Filed under: Daily Horse Racing Blog

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