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Horse Racing Saturday Stats Archives

Saturday – small part of Racing Trends Members’ Message

Saturday, September 3rd, 2011 at 11:26 am  
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RECENT TRAINER FORM – FLAT (last 14 days exc. Friday) – in strike rate order

Name Wins Runs Strike rate (%) Placed Win & Placed Win & Placed % Engagements
Emmet Michael Butterly 1 1 100.0 0 1 100.0 Wolv 8.30
Olivia Maylam 1 2 50.0 1 2 100.0 Wolv 6.30
Robin Bastiman 3 7 42.9 0 3 42.9 Muss 2.35, Muss 5.50
Jedd O’Keeffe 2 5 40.0 1 3 60.0 Thir 5.05
Noel Quinlan 4 11 36.4 0 4 36.4 Asco 4.50, Thir 2.25
David Brown 2 6 33.3 0 2 33.3 Hayd 3.35, Wolv 7.30
John Berry 1 3 33.3 0 1 33.3 Thir 4.00
S Donohoe 1 3 33.3 0 1 33.3 Wolv 6.00
George Baker 3 10 30.0 1 4 40.0 Wolv 7.30
David Elsworth 4 14 28.6 2 6 42.9 Asco 2.05, Asco 2.40, Asco 3.15, Kemp 2.15
Phil McEntee 2 7 28.6 1 3 42.9 Wolv 6.00, Wolv 7.00, Wolv 7.30
Hughie Morrison 6 22 27.3 3 9 40.9 Asco 3.15, Asco 4.50, Kemp 4.55, Kemp 5.25
Paul Midgley 8 30 26.7 5 13 43.3 Kemp 5.25, Wolv 6.00, Wolv 8.00
Dianne Sayer 1 4 25.0 0 1 25.0 Thir 3.30
Marcus Tregoning 2 8 25.0 3 5 62.5 Hayd 5.10
Peter Chapple-Hyam 2 8 25.0 2 4 50.0 Asco 4.20
Sir Mark Prescott 6 25 24.0 3 9 36.0 Hayd 5.10, Kemp 3.50, Wolv 6.30
Stuart Williams 2 9 22.2 0 2 22.2 Thir 3.30
James Given 3 15 20.0 3 6 40.0 Thir 3.30, Thir 4.00, Wolv 8.00
Jo Crowley 1 5 20.0 2 3 60.0 Kemp 2.45
Mark Brisbourne 3 15 20.0 0 3 20.0 Thir 4.35, Thir 5.35, Thir 6.05, Wolv 6.30, Wolv 7.00
Peter Salmon 1 5 20.0 1 2 40.0 Thir 5.35
Richard Price 3 15 20.0 1 4 26.7 Hayd 3.00
Ron Barr 3 15 20.0 2 5 33.3 Thir 5.35, Thir 6.05
Clive Cox 4 22 18.2 3 7 31.8 Asco 4.50, Hayd 5.10
David Simcock 2 11 18.2 2 4 36.4 Asco 2.40, Asco 3.15, Hayd 2.00, Hayd 3.35, Kemp 3.20, Kemp 3.50, Wolv 7.30
John Weymes 2 11 18.2 1 3 27.3 Muss 2.35, Muss 3.40, Wolv 7.00
Neville Bycroft 2 11 18.2 1 3 27.3 Thir 4.00
Mahmood Al Zarooni 4 23 17.4 8 12 52.2 Asco 2.40, Asco 3.15, Asco 3.45, Hayd 2.00, Kemp 2.15, Thir 4.35
Alistair Whillans 1 6 16.7 0 1 16.7 Muss 3.40, Muss 4.45, Muss 5.50
Brett Johnson 1 6 16.7 0 1 16.7 Asco 5.20
Henry Cecil 3 18 16.7 4 7 38.9 Asco 3.45, Hayd 2.30, Hayd 4.40
Ian McInnes 2 12 16.7 2 4 33.3 Muss 3.05, Wolv 9.00
Joseph Tuite 1 6 16.7 1 2 33.3 Kemp 5.55
Brian Meehan 6 38 15.8 6 12 31.6 Hayd 4.05, Kemp 2.15, Kemp 4.25, Kemp 5.25
Charles Hills 4 26 15.4 5 9 34.6 Asco 2.05, Asco 4.20, Asco 4.50
Mrs K Burke 2 13 15.4 4 6 46.2 Asco 3.15, Asco 4.20, Asco 4.50, Thir 5.05
Richard Hannon 14 93 15.1 15 29 31.2 Asco 2.05, Asco 2.40, Asco 3.15, Asco 4.20, Asco 4.50, Asco 5.20, Hayd 2.00, Hayd 4.05, Hayd 4.40, Kemp 2.45, Kemp 3.20, Kemp 4.25, Kemp 5.25, Kemp 5.55
Saeed Bin Suroor 5 34 14.7 12 17 50.0 Asco 2.40, Hayd 2.00, Hayd 3.35, Kemp 4.55, Thir 2.55
Brian Baugh 2 14 14.3 1 3 21.4 Asco 5.20, Wolv 9.00
Bryan Smart 3 21 14.3 3 6 28.6 Hayd 3.00, Thir 2.25, Thir 2.55, Thir 5.35, Thir 6.05
Clive Brittain 3 21 14.3 2 5 23.8 Asco 2.40, Asco 5.20
Conor Dore 1 7 14.3 2 3 42.9 Thir 5.35, Wolv 7.00
Edward Lynam 1 7 14.3 3 4 57.1 Hayd 3.35
James Fanshawe 2 14 14.3 5 7 50.0 Asco 4.50, Hayd 3.35, Kemp 2.45, Kemp 5.55
Michael Easterby 3 21 14.3 7 10 47.6 Hayd 3.35, Thir 2.55, Thir 3.30, Thir 5.05, Thir 5.35, Wolv 8.30
Mick Channon 9 63 14.3 12 21 33.3 Asco 3.15, Asco 4.20, Hayd 3.00, Hayd 4.40, Kemp 3.20, Thir 4.35, Thir 6.05
Mike Murphy 1 7 14.3 1 2 28.6 Asco 2.05, Asco 4.20, Kemp 2.45
Patrick Morris 1 7 14.3 0 1 14.3 Hayd 3.00
Kevin Ryan 5 38 13.2 5 10 26.3 Hayd 3.00, Hayd 3.35, Hayd 4.05, Muss 5.15, Thir 2.55, Thir 4.35
David Barron 3 24 12.5 3 6 25.0 Asco 5.20, Hayd 3.35, Kemp 5.25, Muss 3.05, Muss 5.15, Thir 4.35, Thir 6.05
I Semple 1 8 12.5 1 2 25.0 Muss 5.15, Muss 5.50, Thir 4.00
John Gosden 4 32 12.5 7 11 34.4 Asco 2.05, Asco 3.45, Hayd 2.00, Hayd 2.30, Thir 2.55, Thir 4.35
John Quinn 2 16 12.5 4 6 37.5 Thir 2.25, Thir 3.30, Thir 5.05
Tom Dascombe 4 32 12.5 6 10 31.3 Hayd 3.00, Muss 5.15, Wolv 7.00, Wolv 7.30, Wolv 8.30
J S Moore 3 25 12.0 3 6 24.0 Hayd 4.05, Wolv 6.30
Ed Dunlop 2 17 11.8 5 7 41.2 Asco 3.15, Asco 3.45, Hayd 4.05, Kemp 3.50, Kemp 5.25, Wolv 7.30
Roger Varian 2 17 11.8 2 4 23.5 Hayd 2.00, Hayd 3.35, Hayd 5.10, Kemp 4.55
Milton Bradley 3 26 11.5 3 6 23.1 Asco 5.20
Ed de Giles 1 9 11.1 2 3 33.3 Asco 5.20
Ian Williams 1 9 11.1 1 2 22.2 Hayd 2.30
Michael Dods 3 27 11.1 8 11 40.7 Asco 3.45, Asco 4.20, Hayd 4.05, Thir 2.25, Thir 3.30, Thir 5.35
John Dunlop 3 28 10.7 4 7 25.0 Asco 2.05, Hayd 5.10
Tony Carroll 3 29 10.3 6 9 31.0 Wolv 6.00, Wolv 7.00, Wolv 8.00, Wolv 9.00
William Muir 3 29 10.3 4 7 24.1 Kemp 2.45, Kemp 5.25, Kemp 5.55
Alan Berry 2 20 10.0 4 6 30.0 Muss 3.05
Alan Swinbank 2 20 10.0 4 6 30.0 Hayd 2.30, Muss 4.15, Thir 2.55, Thir 4.00
Chris Fairhurst 1 10 10.0 3 4 40.0 Thir 5.05
Ian Wood 1 10 10.0 2 3 30.0 Asco 5.20, Kemp 5.55
Marco Botti 1 10 10.0 5 6 60.0 Asco 3.15, Asco 3.45, Kemp 4.25, Thir 2.55, Wolv 6.30, Wolv 7.30
Michael Appleby 1 10 10.0 1 2 20.0 Wolv 8.30
Nigel Tinkler 1 10 10.0 1 2 20.0 Thir 2.25
Richard Fahey 7 70 10.0 8 15 21.4 Asco 3.15, Asco 3.45, Hayd 3.35, Hayd 5.10, Kemp 4.55, Thir 2.55, Thir 4.00, Thir 4.35
Tracy Waggott 1 10 10.0 0 1 10.0 Muss 4.15, Thir 6.05
Andrew Balding 4 41 9.8 6 10 24.4 Asco 2.05, Hayd 3.35, Hayd 4.40
William Haggas 3 31 9.7 13 16 51.6 Asco 4.50, Hayd 5.10, Kemp 2.15, Kemp 4.25, Thir 2.25, Thir 4.35, Thir 5.05
Alan Bailey 2 21 9.5 2 4 19.0 Asco 3.15, Asco 3.45, Kemp 2.45, Kemp 4.55
Eve Johnson Houghton 2 21 9.5 2 4 19.0 Asco 4.50, Hayd 2.00
Sir Michael Stoute 2 21 9.5 7 9 42.9 Asco 3.45, Hayd 2.30, Hayd 3.35, Hayd 4.40, Hayd 5.10, Kemp 2.15, Kemp 3.20
Derek Shaw 1 11 9.1 2 3 27.3 Kemp 2.45
John Spearing 1 11 9.1 1 2 18.2 Wolv 6.30
Ollie Pears 1 11 9.1 2 3 27.3 Wolv 6.30
Richard Guest 5 55 9.1 6 11 20.0 Muss 3.05, Muss 3.40, Thir 2.25, Thir 3.30, Thir 4.00, Wolv 8.30, Wolv 9.00
Alan Jarvis 1 12 8.3 1 2 16.7 Hayd 2.00
Declan Carroll 1 12 8.3 3 4 33.3 Muss 4.15, Muss 5.50, Thir 5.05
Geoffrey Harker 1 12 8.3 2 3 25.0 Thir 3.30
Michael Attwater 1 12 8.3 3 4 33.3 Kemp 5.25
Tim Easterby 5 60 8.3 13 18 30.0 Hayd 2.30, Hayd 3.00, Hayd 4.05, Hayd 5.10, Muss 3.05, Muss 4.15, Thir 2.25, Thir 2.55, Thir 5.05
Rod Millman 2 25 8.0 9 11 44.0 Kemp 4.55
Sylvester Kirk 2 25 8.0 4 6 24.0 Wolv 8.30
John Best 1 13 7.7 3 4 30.8 Kemp 4.25, Kemp 5.25, Kemp 5.55
Julia Feilden 1 13 7.7 1 2 15.4 Wolv 7.00
William Knight 1 13 7.7 1 2 15.4 Asco 3.15
J W Hills 1 14 7.1 0 1 7.1 Kemp 3.50, Wolv 6.30
Mark Johnston 5 70 7.1 16 21 30.0 Asco 2.05, Asco 3.45, Hayd 2.30, Hayd 4.05, Hayd 4.40, Hayd 5.10, Kemp 2.45, Kemp 3.50, Kemp 4.25, Kemp 4.55, Muss 4.45, Muss 5.15, Thir 4.35
Walter Swinburn 1 16 6.3 4 5 31.3 Asco 4.50, Kemp 2.45, Wolv 7.00
Ronald Harris 2 33 6.1 2 4 12.1 Asco 2.05, Asco 5.20
Amanda Perrett 1 18 5.6 5 6 33.3 Hayd 5.10
David Evans 3 54 5.6 12 15 27.8 Wolv 9.00
Jamie Osborne 1 18 5.6 2 3 16.7 Asco 3.15, Thir 2.55
Keith Dalgleish 1 18 5.6 1 2 11.1 Muss 3.05, Muss 5.15, Muss 5.50, Wolv 9.00
Alan McCabe 1 19 5.3 9 10 52.6 Kemp 5.25, Kemp 5.55, Wolv 6.00, Wolv 7.00
Brian Ellison 1 20 5.0 1 2 10.0 Asco 4.50, Muss 3.40, Muss 4.15, Muss 4.45, Muss 5.15, Wolv 6.30, Wolv 8.00
Jim Goldie 1 20 5.0 3 4 20.0 Hayd 2.30, Muss 2.35, Muss 3.05, Muss 3.40, Muss 4.15, Muss 4.45, Muss 5.15, Muss 5.50
Ruth Carr 1 20 5.0 3 4 20.0 Muss 2.35, Muss 3.40, Muss 4.15, Muss 4.45, Thir 4.00
Luca Cumani 1 22 4.5 10 11 50.0 Asco 2.05, Asco 3.45, Asco 4.50, Hayd 2.30
Ann Duffield 1 23 4.3 3 4 17.4 Thir 2.25, Wolv 6.30
David O’Meara 1 24 4.2 4 5 20.8 Asco 3.15, Asco 4.50, Thir 4.00, Thir 4.35, Thir 5.05, Thir 6.05
Reg Hollinshead 1 25 4.0 9 10 40.0 Hayd 2.30
Ralph Beckett 1 29 3.4 6 7 24.1 Asco 4.20, Hayd 2.30, Kemp 3.50, Kemp 5.55
Andrew Reid 0 4 0.0 0 0 0.0 Wolv 6.00
Ben Haslam 0 5 0.0 1 1 20.0 Thir 2.25, Thir 2.55
Daniel Mark Loughnane 0 9 0.0 0 0 0.0 Wolv 7.00
David Nicholls 0 46 0.0 7 7 15.2 Asco 5.20, Thir 2.25, Thir 4.35, Thir 5.05, Thir 5.35
Dean Ivory 0 8 0.0 1 1 12.5 Kemp 5.55
Derek Haydn Jones 0 5 0.0 1 1 20.0 Kemp 5.25
Dominic Ffrench Davis 0 5 0.0 0 0 0.0 Wolv 9.00
Ed Walker 0 6 0.0 1 1 16.7 Kemp 2.45, Wolv 6.00
Eric Alston 0 16 0.0 0 0 0.0 Muss 2.35, Muss 3.40
Frank Sheridan 0 5 0.0 0 0 0.0 Wolv 6.00
Gary Moore 0 17 0.0 3 3 17.6 Kemp 2.15
Gay Kelleway 0 9 0.0 3 3 33.3 Kemp 2.45, Wolv 9.00
Geoffrey Oldroyd 0 8 0.0 0 0 0.0 Wolv 7.00
George Foster 0 8 0.0 4 4 50.0 Asco 5.20, Muss 3.40, Muss 5.50
Gerard Butler 0 4 0.0 1 1 25.0 Kemp 3.50
James Unett 0 4 0.0 1 1 25.0 Wolv 7.00, Wolv 9.00
Jane Chapple-Hyam 0 9 0.0 2 2 22.2 Wolv 8.30
Jeremy Gask 0 6 0.0 0 0 0.0 Asco 5.20
John E Long 0 6 0.0 1 1 16.7 Wolv 7.00
John Holt 0 4 0.0 1 1 25.0 Thir 2.55
John Ryan 0 11 0.0 1 1 9.1 Muss 4.15
Julie Camacho 0 5 0.0 1 1 20.0 Muss 4.45, Thir 2.55, Thir 4.00
Lawrence Mullaney 0 5 0.0 0 0 0.0 Muss 2.35
Linda Perratt 0 13 0.0 0 0 0.0 Muss 2.35, Muss 3.05, Muss 3.40, Muss 4.15, Muss 4.45, Muss 5.50
Lisa Williamson 0 10 0.0 1 1 10.0 Asco 5.20
Lydia Pearce 0 10 0.0 4 4 40.0 Wolv 8.30
Malcolm Saunders 0 12 0.0 4 4 33.3 Asco 4.20
Mark H Tompkins 0 11 0.0 1 1 9.1 Asco 2.40, Kemp 2.15, Kemp 4.55, Thir 3.30, Thir 4.00
Michael Bell 0 21 0.0 2 2 9.5 Asco 3.15, Asco 3.45, Hayd 2.30, Kemp 4.25
Micky Hammond 0 9 0.0 4 4 44.4 Muss 4.45, Muss 5.15, Thir 4.00
Noel Wilson 0 6 0.0 0 0 0.0 Muss 2.35, Muss 3.05, Muss 3.40, Muss 4.45
Paul D’Arcy 0 6 0.0 1 1 16.7 Hayd 4.40, Kemp 2.45
Peter Makin 0 5 0.0 0 0 0.0 Kemp 4.55
Peter Winkworth 0 8 0.0 3 3 37.5 Thir 4.35, Thir 5.05
Philip Kirby 0 5 0.0 0 0 0.0 Thir 4.35
Richard Whitaker 0 19 0.0 4 4 21.1 Thir 5.05, Wolv 8.00, Wolv 9.00
Robert Cowell 0 11 0.0 2 2 18.2 Kemp 2.45, Kemp 5.55
Robert Mills 0 9 0.0 2 2 22.2 Kemp 5.25
Roger Charlton 0 12 0.0 0 0 0.0 Hayd 3.00, Hayd 3.35, Hayd 4.05, Thir 4.35
T Coyle 0 4 0.0 1 1 25.0 Thir 5.05
Tobias B P Coles 0 4 0.0 0 0 0.0 Thir 4.00
William Stone 0 4 0.0 0 0 0.0 Wolv 8.30

Saturday – big race trends (15 years)

Saturday, November 6th, 2010 at 11:29 am  
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November handicap (3.10 Doncaster) – 1m 4f (class 2 handicap)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Position LTO: Horses that finished in the first two LTO have provided 9 of the last 15 winners.
Recent win: 14 of the last 15 winners had won at least one race in their last six starts.
Last 3 runs: Horses that that finished in the first four on all of their last three starts have provided 7 winners from 59 qualifiers for a profit of £58.00 (ROI +98.3%).
Course LTO: Horses that raced at Grade 1 track last time out have provided 13 of the last 15 winners.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): 1 win from 17 for a loss of £11.00 (ROI -64.7%).
Price: Horses priced 33/1 or bigger have provided 1 winner from 92.
Distance LTO: Horses that raced over 1m5f or more LTO have provided just 1 winner from 52 qualifiers.
Races this season: Horses that have raced 3 times or less during the season have provided 0 winners from 72 qualifiers.
Course LTO: Horses that raced at a Grade 2 track or lower LTO have provided just 2 winner from 88 qualifiers for a loss of £64.00 (ROI -72.7%).

GENERAL STATS

Course winners: Course winners have provided 5 winners from 57 qualifiers (SR 8.8%); non course winners have provided 10 winners from 267 (SR 3.7%).
Age: 3yos have provided 7 winners from 82 runners (SR 8.5%); 4yos have provided 5 winners from 113 (SR 4.4%); 5yos have provided 2 winners from 60 (SR 3.3%); 6yos+ have provided 1 winners from 69 (SR 1.4%).

Trends analysis: Favourites have won only once but in such a competitive event with very big fields, this is perhaps not so big a surprise. 1995 saw the last successful market leader, so one could argue another one is overdue. A good starting point would be to focus on horses that have registered at least one victory in their last six runs. Horses that finished in the first two last time out are also worth noting as they have won 60% of the races between them from 35% of the total runners. Course winners tend to be better value than non course winners. In terms of age 3 year olds have the best record; meanwhile older horses (6 or older) look worth avoiding.

Badger Ales Trophy (3.20 Wincanton) – Listed chase 3m 1½ f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): 5 wins from 16 for a profit of £1.13 (ROI +7.1%).
Position LTO: 10 of the last 15 winners finished first or second LTO (6 won).
Price: Horses priced 12/1 or bigger have provided 7 winners from 69 runners for a profit of £47.00 (ROI +68.1%).
Weight rank: The bottom 4 in the weights (inc. joints) have provided 10 winners from 64 runners for a profit of £57.63 (ROI +90%).
Trainers: Paul Nicholls has saddled 5 winners from 20 runners for a profit of £40.25 (ROI +201.3%).
Jockeys: Timmy Murphy has ridden the winner on 4 occasions from 8 rides.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 4/1 to 15/2 have produced just 1 winner from 31 qualifiers for a loss of £26.00 (ROI -83.9%).
Weight rank: The top 4 in the weights (inc. joint 4th) have provided 4 winners from 65 qualifiers for a loss of £49.50 (ROI -76.2%).
Class droppers: Horses dropping in class have a poor record with just 2 wins from 34.

GENERAL STATS

Age: 6yos have provided 3 winners from 17 runners (SR 17.6%); 7yos have provided 3 winners from 36 (SR 8.3%), 8yos have provided 3 winners from 38 (SR 7.9%); 9yos have provided 4 winners from 31 (SR 12.9%); 10yos+ have provided 2 winners from 26 (SR 7.7%).
Course winners: Course winners have provided 4 winners from 42 qualifiers (SR 9.5%); non course winners who have provided 11 winners from 106 qualifiers (SR 10.4%).

Trends analysis: An interesting set of statistics where favourites have a profitable record, but so do outsiders. Perhaps the best starting point is to look for horses that finished 1st or 2nd LTO as they have provided 10 of the last 15 winners. From there, there seems to a weight bias to lower weighted runners so one would be better off concentrating on those rather than horses near the top of the weights. Age wise there seems no bias, while it seems to have been a lucky race for jockey Timmy Murphy. From a trainer’s perspective runners from the stable of Paul Nicholls demand great respect. Indeed, it is not always their first string that wins either!

Saturday – positive trainer stats

Saturday, October 16th, 2010 at 11:09 am  
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POSITIVE STATS – (TRAINER / SIRE / DRAW)

Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

2.05    Cheltenham – Acey **: N Twiston-Davies in September / October making debut; top 2 in betting SR 56.4%; ROI +82.1%

2.05    Cheltenham – Aiteen Thirtythree **: P Nicholls at Cheltenham – top 2 in the betting + Ruby Walsh riding SR 33.5%; ROI +24%

2.40    Cheltenham – You’re The Top: N Henderson – horses off the track for 5 months to 1 year; NOT Graded, Listed or Maiden; SR 34%; ROI +46.1%

2.40    Cheltenham – Rory Boy **: N Twiston-Davies in October – male chasers off track for 150+ days; must be top 4 of the betting; SR 32.7%; ROI +45.6%

2.40    Cheltenham – Classic Swain **: P Nicholls at Cheltenham – top 2 in the betting + Ruby Walsh riding SR 33.5%; ROI +24%

3.15    Cheltenham – Royal Mix **: P Nicholls at Cheltenham – top 2 in the betting + Ruby Walsh riding SR 33.5%; ROI +24%

3.50    Cheltenham – Babysitter **: N Twiston-Davies in October – male chasers off track for 150+ days; must be top 4 of the betting; SR 32.7%; ROI +45.6%

3.50    Cheltenham – Picture This **: P Nicholls at Cheltenham – top 2 in the betting + Ruby Walsh riding SR 33.5%; ROI +24%

4.25    Cheltenham – Benartic: N Henderson – horses off the track for 5 months to 1 year; NOT Graded, Listed or Maiden; SR 34%; ROI +46.1%

4.25    Cheltenham – Great Mates **: P Nicholls at Cheltenham – top 2 in the betting + Ruby Walsh riding SR 33.5%; ROI +24%

5.00    Cheltenham – Pigeon Island **: N Twiston-Davies in October – male chasers off track for 150+ days; must be top 4 of the betting; SR 32.7%; ROI +45.6%

5.00    Cheltenham – Ghizao **: P Nicholls at Cheltenham – top 2 in the betting + Ruby Walsh riding SR 33.5%; ROI +24%

5.35    Cheltenham – Lets Get Serious **: N Henderson in bumpers; making debut + top 4 of the betting; SR 37.1%; ROI +34.6%

5.35    Cheltenham – Dark Lover **: P Nicholls at Cheltenham – top 2 in the betting + Ruby Walsh riding SR 33.5%; ROI +24%

2.30    Kelso – Mr Jay Dee **: G Swinbank – Favourites in non handicap hurdles; ran in hurdle race LTO; SR 61.7%; ROI +31.5% (43 of the 47 races finished 1st or placed)

Racing Trends NH Message for Saturday

Saturday, October 9th, 2010 at 12:15 pm  
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Here is my full National Hunt Message that members received today – if you like what you see follow the link on the page to join up.

National Hunt Message for Sat 9 Oct 2010

COURSE FAVOURITE STATS NATIONAL HUNT – this is a section looking at the stats for favourites at courses in certain race types

Bangor-On-Dee favourites

Race type Wins Bets SR % Profit ROI % Race times
handicap chases 25 101 24.8 -£15.12 -15.0 3.30, 4.40
novice / beginner chases 23 53 43.4 -£6.97 -13.2 5.15
handicap hurdles 21 104 20.2 -£31.38 -30.2 2.55
novice hurdles 47 95 49.5 +£1.15 +1.2 2.25, 4.05
bumpers 13 27 48.2 +£11.55 +42.8 5.50

Chepstow favourites

Race type Wins Bets SR % Profit ROI % Race times
handicap chases 30 113 26.6 -£7.76 -6.9 5.10
novice / beginner chases 20 45 44.4 -£1.16 -2.6 3.25
handicap hurdles 17 80 21.3 -£13.63 -17.0 4.00, 4.35
non handicap hurdles 55 138 39.9 -£13.30 -9.6 2.20
novice hurdles 31 68 45.6 -£4.76 -7.0 2.50
bumpers 17 40 42.5 +£3.65 +9.1 5.45

Hexham favourites

Race type Wins Bets SR % Profit ROI % Race times
handicap chases 20 83 24.1 -£11.92 -14.4 3.10, 4.55
novice / beginner chases 22 39 56.4 +£8.38 +21.5 2.00, 2.35
handicap hurdles 16 82 19.5 -£23.95 -29.2 3.45
non handicap hurdles 50 111 45.1 -£7.09 -6.4 4.20
bumpers 11 29 37.9 -£3.07 -10.6 5.30

POSITIVE STATS – (TRAINER / SIRE / DRAW)

Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

2.55    Bangor-On-Dee – Blazing Desert: JJ Quinn hurdles at Bangor (7 wins, 7 placed from 15) SR 46.7%; ROI +110.3%

5.15    Bangor-On-Dee – Robinson Collonges: P Nicholls – 5 and 6yo male french breds in novice chases; SR 41%; ROI +10.6%

4.35    Chepstow – Tarvini **: J O’ Neill handicap hurdles (exc. novice handicaps) aged 4 to 7 top 4 in the betting SR 24.4%; ROI +19.5%

5.10    Chepstow – Ballycarney **: Miss E Lavelle – handicap chases; male runners priced 16/1 or shorter; SR 21%; ROI +46.2%

5.10    Chepstow – Ballycarney **: Miss E Lavelle in October; must be top 2 in the betting; SR 50%; ROI +94.8%

5.10    Chepstow – Beat The Boys **: N Twiston-Davies in October – male chasers off track for 150+ days; must be top 4 of the betting; SR 32.7%; ROI +45.6%

3.10    Hexham – Stagecoach Amber **: Mrs S Smith – handicap chases; off track between 10 and 50 days; aged 6 to 10; must be priced 16/1 or shorter in betting; SR 18.8%; ROI +32%

4.20    Hexham – Errington: J Howard Johnson – October to December; hurdle races; off track for 3 months or more; SR 24.3%; ROI +37.7%

4.20    Hexham – Errington * **: Positive Sire Stats – Karinga Bay males on soft/heavy going; must be top 2 in the betting also SR 40.3%; ROI 51.2%

4.20    Hexham – Monogram * **: Positive Sire Stats – Karinga Bay males on soft/heavy going; must be top 2 in the betting also SR 40.3%; ROI 51.2%

NEGATIVE STATS – Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

5.50    Bangor-On-Dee – Fiddlededee **: Poor jockey stat – A Mc Coy in bumpers; horses priced 5/1 or bigger SR 2.7%; ROI -80.3%

2.00    Hexham – Kellystown Lad: Poor trainer stat – Ferdy Murphy in October; horse off the track for 3 months+ SR 4.3%; ROI -84.4%

4.55    Hexham – Reckless Venture **: Poor trainer stat – Miss Lucinda Russell with horses returning to track within 10 days EXCLUDING favourites; SR 3.7%; ROI -66%

5.30    Hexham – Katie’s Prince: Poor trainer stat – C Grant runners on debut; SR 0% ROI -100% (0 from 106)

POOR VALUE LAST TIME OUT WINNER – The idea in this section is to find horses that won LTO that perform poorly in comparison to all LTO winners. The stats for all LTO winners in NH races the strike rate (SR) is 19.3% and losses are -14.8%. These are my benchmarks.

5.45    Chepstow – Royal Scoundrel: Poor LTO 1st stat – NH racing; won LTO; off the track for over 1 year; SR 9.3%; SR -40.5%

PACE INFORMATION – the figures for NH races vary slightly in comparison to the flat ones. For flat races I use 10+runner handicaps only. For NH, all race types are considered, and all races are considered (regardless of the number of runners). As with the flat, the average figure for each group should be 1.0.

Course and time FR RUNN PROM HELD UP Distance and race type
Bangor-On-Dee 2.25 1.7 1.6 0.5 2m 4f – 2m 5f non handicap hurdles
Bangor-On-Dee 2.55 1.8 1.0 0.9 2m – 2m1f handicap hurdles
Bangor-On-Dee 3.30 1.6 0.9 0.9 2m – 2m1f handicap chases
Bangor-On-Dee 4.05 2.3 1.6 0.3 2m – 2m1f non handicap hurdles
Bangor-On-Dee 4.40 1.3 1.0 1.0 3m – 3m1f handicap chases
Bangor-On-Dee 5.15 1.5 1.1 0.7 2m 4f – 2m 5f non handicap chases
Chepstow 2.20, 2.50 1.8 1.5 0.5 2m – 2m1f non handicap hurdles
Chepstow 3.25 1.9 1.0 0.8 3m – 3m1f non handicap chases
Chepstow 4.00 2.3 0.8 0.8 2m – 2m1f handicap hurdles
Chepstow 4.35 1.5 1.6 0.5 2m 4f – 2m 5f handicap hurdles
Chepstow 5.10 1.8 1.1 0.8 3m – 3m1f handicap chases
Hexham 2.00, 2.35 1.7 1.4 0.1 2m – 2m1f non handicap chases
Hexham 3.10 1.6 1.1 0.7 2m 4f – 2m 5f handicap chases
Hexham 3.45 0.3 1.6 0.6 3m – 3m1f handicap hurdles
Hexham 4.20 0.7 1.4 0.7 2m 4f – 2m 5f non handicap hurdles
Hexham 4.55 3.6 1.1 0.3 3m – 3m1f handicap chases

Bangor-On-Dee 4.05 – A solid advantage to front runners over this C&D. Taken as a whole, hold up horses have a very poor record.

Chepstow 2.20 / 2.50 – Hold up horses have a very moderate record over this C&D, so there is an advantage to lead, or race close to the pace.

Chepstow 4.00 – There is an edge to front runners over this trip.

Here are the ratings for this race:

Rougham                            5.0

Westlin’ Winds                     4.3

Prince Pippin                        3.4

Barwell Bridge                     3.0

Olofi                                  2.8

George Nympton                  2.7

Troubletimestwo                   2.2

Escort’men                          1.5

Conclusion – Rougham is the pace value while Westlin’ Winds should not be dismissed from trading calculations.

Chepstow 5.10 – An advantage to front runners over this C&D, and from an ‘in running’ perspective one would hope to gain some value.

Here are the ratings for this race:

Gullible Gordon                     4.8

Mount Oscar                        3.6

Ballycarney                         3.5

Dom D’Orgeval                    3.4

Beat The Boys                     3.4

Templer                              3.2

Cullahill                               3.0

Ellerslie George                    2.8

Le Beau Bai                         1.8

Postmaster                         1.8

Tempsford                          1.5

Conclusion –  Gullible Gordon is clearly the pace pick so should be value pre race and “in running”.

Hexham 2.00 / 2.35- Hold up horses score less than half as often as they should, so there is a definite advantage to lead, and less so for those that race close to the pace.

Hexham 4.55 – One of the stronger front running biases. Front runners have an excellent record, while hold up horses tend to struggle.

Here are the ratings for this race:

Reckless Venture                  4.0

Adrianeo                             4.0

Murphys Beau                      3.0

Benbeoch                            2.8

Dougall                               2.0

Panthers Run                       1.8

Sierra Victor                        1.6

Conclusion – Reckless Venture and Adrianeo offer the pace / trading value here.

Horses mentioned in 2 or more sections –

5.10    Chepstow – Ballycarney (must be top 2 in the betting to qualify)

4.20    Hexham – Errington (must be top 2 in the betting to qualify AND be going to be soft or heavy)

RECENT TRAINER FORM – NH (last 14 days exc. Friday) – in strike rate order

Name Wins Runs Strike rate (%) Placed Win & Placed Win & Placed % Engagements
A J Honeyball 2 6 33.3 2 4 66.7 Chep 5.45
Ian Williams 1 3 33.3 0 1 33.3 Bang 2.55
M A Barnes 3 9 33.3 0 3 33.3 Bang 2.55, Hexh 5.30
Mrs L B Normile 1 3 33.3 1 2 66.7 Hexh 3.10, Hexh 4.20
Mrs L Wadham 1 3 33.3 1 2 66.7 Bang 4.40
Mrs S Gardner 1 3 33.3 0 1 33.3 Chep 5.45
P J Hobbs 4 12 33.3 3 7 58.3 Bang 2.25, Bang 2.55, Bang 4.40, Bang 5.50, Chep 2.50, Chep 3.25, Chep 4.00, Chep 4.35, Chep 5.10, Chep 5.45
N A Twiston-Davies 8 26 30.8 7 15 57.7 Bang 2.25, Bang 4.40, Bang 5.15, Bang 5.50, Chep 5.10
J J Quinn 1 4 25.0 0 1 25.0 Bang 2.55
O Sherwood 1 4 25.0 1 2 50.0 Chep 2.50
S R B Crawford 1 4 25.0 0 1 25.0 Hexh 3.45, Hexh 3.45, Hexh 4.55
T R George 1 4 25.0 2 3 75.0 Bang 2.55, Bang 3.30, Chep 4.00, Chep 4.35
P R Webber 2 9 22.2 3 5 55.6 Bang 3.30, Bang 4.40, Bang 5.15
Evan Williams 3 15 20.0 4 7 46.7 Bang 2.25, Chep 2.20, Chep 4.35, Chep 5.10
K C Bailey 1 5 20.0 0 1 20.0 Bang 4.05, Bang 4.05
W K Goldsworthy 1 5 20.0 1 2 40.0 Chep 2.50
Mrs R Dobbin 1 6 16.7 0 1 16.7 Hexh 3.10
M F Harris 2 13 15.4 2 4 30.8 Bang 4.05, Bang 5.50, Chep 2.20, Chep 4.35
Andrew Turnell 1 7 14.3 1 2 28.6 Chep 2.50
C Grant 1 7 14.3 2 3 42.9 Hexh 5.30
N J Henderson 1 7 14.3 1 2 28.6 Bang 5.50, Chep 3.25
Tim Vaughan 2 17 11.8 4 6 35.3 Hexh 4.20
D McCain Jnr 2 18 11.1 3 5 27.8 Bang 2.25, Bang 2.55, Bang 3.30, Bang 4.05, Bang 5.15, Bang 5.50, Hexh 2.00, Hexh 2.35, Hexh 3.45, Hexh 5.30
Mrs S J Smith 1 10 10.0 0 1 10.0 Hexh 3.10, Hexh 3.10, Hexh 3.45, Hexh 4.20, Hexh 5.30
Ferdy Murphy 1 14 7.1 2 3 21.4 Hexh 2.00, Hexh 2.35, Hexh 4.20
Jonjo O’Neill 2 28 7.1 7 9 32.1 Bang 4.05, Bang 4.05, Bang 4.40, Bang 5.50, Chep 3.25, Chep 4.35, Chep 5.10
J M Jefferson 1 18 5.6 4 5 27.8 Bang 4.40, Bang 5.50, Hexh 5.30
P Bowen 1 19 5.3 3 4 21.1 Bang 4.40, Chep 5.45
A C Whillans 0 4 0.0 0 0 0.0 Hexh 3.10, Hexh 3.45
A King 0 4 0.0 3 3 75.0 Bang 5.15, Chep 2.20
C L Tizzard 0 5 0.0 1 1 20.0 Chep 2.50, Chep 5.10, Chep 5.45, Chep 5.45
D Pipe 0 16 0.0 7 7 43.8 Bang 3.30
F P Murtagh 0 5 0.0 0 0 0.0 Hexh 3.10
J Howard Johnson 0 11 0.0 1 1 9.1 Hexh 2.00, Hexh 4.20, Hexh 4.20
J R Cornwall 0 4 0.0 0 0 0.0 Bang 3.30, Bang 5.15
J S Wainwright 0 4 0.0 0 0 0.0 Hexh 3.45, Hexh 5.30
M Keighley 0 6 0.0 0 0 0.0 Bang 2.55
M Mullineaux 0 5 0.0 0 0 0.0 Bang 5.50
M Todhunter 0 13 0.0 4 4 30.8 Hexh 3.10, Hexh 3.45
Miss E C Lavelle 0 8 0.0 3 3 37.5 Chep 5.10, Chep 5.45
Miss Lucinda V Russell 0 13 0.0 2 2 15.4 Bang 3.30, Hexh 3.10, Hexh 3.45, Hexh 3.45, Hexh 4.20, Hexh 4.55
Mrs S C Bradburne 0 5 0.0 0 0 0.0 Hexh 3.10
N G Richards 0 5 0.0 0 0 0.0 Bang 5.50, Hexh 4.20, Hexh 4.20
N P Mulholland 0 9 0.0 1 1 11.1 Bang 4.40, Chep 4.35
P F Nicholls 0 4 0.0 3 3 75.0 Bang 2.25, Bang 4.05, Bang 5.15, Chep 2.20, Chep 2.50, Chep 3.25, Chep 4.00, Chep 4.35, Chep 5.10, Chep 5.45
P Griffin 0 5 0.0 1 1 20.0 Hexh 4.20
P Monteith 0 9 0.0 1 1 11.1 Hexh 2.35, Hexh 4.55
R C Guest 0 6 0.0 0 0 0.0 Hexh 3.10
R Dickin 0 6 0.0 0 0 0.0 Bang 2.55, Bang 4.05, Bang 5.50

COURSE TRAINER STATS NH

Bangor-On-Dee trainer stats ALL RACES 2005 – Thursday 7th Oct 2010 (ordered by strike rate – min 3 runs or 1 win)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%) Engagements
J J Quinn 8 22 36.4 +£22.54 +102.5 2.55
J S Goldie 3 9 33.3 +£23.50 +261.1 2.55, 3.30
M A Barnes 1 3 33.3 +£7.00 +233.3 2.55
Mrs Caroline Keevil 1 3 33.3 +£1.50 +50.0 4.40
P J Hobbs 21 82 25.6 +£6.31 +7.7 2.25, 2.55, 4.40, 5.50
A King 24 106 22.6 -£8.80 -8.3 5.15
N J Henderson 11 49 22.5 -£7.73 -15.8 5.50
N G Richards 8 39 20.5 +£9.75 +25.0 5.50
Mrs L Wadham 1 6 16.7 +£5.00 +83.3 4.40
Jonjo O’Neill 33 202 16.3 -£76.05 -37.6 4.05, 4.05, 4.40, 5.50
M F Harris 5 32 15.6 +£29.00 +90.6 4.05, 5.50
B J M Ryall 2 13 15.4 +£14.00 +107.7 4.40
T R George 5 33 15.2 -£10.25 -31.1 2.55, 3.30
P F Nicholls 6 40 15.0 -£16.29 -40.7 2.25, 4.05, 5.15
N A Twiston-Davies 12 81 14.8 -£41.29 -51.0 2.25, 4.40, 5.15, 5.50
H D Daly 10 68 14.7 +£21.36 +31.4 5.15
P Bowen 11 85 12.9 -£17.08 -20.1 4.40
D McCain Jnr 35 276 12.7 -£129.92 -47.1 2.25, 2.55, 3.30, 4.05, 5.15, 5.50
Ian Williams 10 79 12.7 -£9.30 -11.8 2.55
Miss Lucinda V Russell 2 16 12.5 +£2.00 +12.5 3.30
P R Webber 5 41 12.2 -£10.75 -26.2 3.30, 4.40, 5.15
M Keighley 2 17 11.8 -£8.25 -48.5 2.55
J M Jefferson 4 40 10.0 -£15.50 -38.8 4.40, 5.50
R Lee 3 30 10.0 -£19.15 -63.8 2.55
D Pipe 7 72 9.7 -£14.50 -20.1 3.30
R Hollinshead 2 23 8.7 +£32.00 +139.1 4.05
Evan Williams 7 91 7.7 -£51.35 -56.4 2.25
J S Smith 1 13 7.7 -£6.50 -50.0 4.40
J R Cornwall 1 14 7.1 -£8.00 -57.1 3.30, 5.15
R Dickin 1 15 6.7 -£10.00 -66.7 2.55, 4.05, 5.50
Mrs Caroline Bailey 1 16 6.3 -£13.25 -82.8 2.25, 4.40
K C Bailey 2 34 5.9 -£27.38 -80.5 4.05, 4.05
M Sheppard 1 21 4.8 -£16.50 -78.6 3.30

Bangor-On-Dee trainer stats ALL HURDLES 2005 – Thursday 7th Oct 2010 (ordered by strike rate – min 3 runs or 1 win)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%) Engagements
J J Quinn 7 16 43.8 +£15.54 +97.1 2.55
J S Goldie 3 8 37.5 +£24.50 +306.3 2.55, 3.30
J S Smith 1 4 25.0 +£2.50 +62.5 4.40
Miss Lucinda V Russell 1 4 25.0 +£7.00 +175.0 3.30
Mrs L Wadham 1 4 25.0 +£7.00 +175.0 4.40
P J Hobbs 11 45 24.4 -£2.11 -4.7 2.25, 2.55, 4.40, 5.50
R Lee 2 10 20.0 -£4.15 -41.5 2.55
P Bowen 9 48 18.8 +£6.55 +13.6 4.40
J M Jefferson 3 17 17.7 +£4.50 +26.5 4.40, 5.50
N G Richards 5 29 17.2 +£1.75 +6.0 5.50
N J Henderson 5 29 17.2 -£13.97 -48.2 5.50
M F Harris 4 24 16.7 +£27.50 +114.6 4.05, 5.50
R Dickin 1 6 16.7 -£1.00 -16.7 2.55, 4.05, 5.50
P F Nicholls 3 19 15.8 -£3.17 -16.7 2.25, 4.05, 5.15
H D Daly 4 28 14.3 +£22.11 +79.0 5.15
Jonjo O’Neill 15 105 14.3 -£47.73 -45.5 4.05, 4.05, 4.40, 5.50
A King 9 67 13.4 -£30.52 -45.6 5.15
D McCain Jnr 22 186 11.8 -£103.54 -55.7 2.25, 2.55, 3.30, 4.05, 5.15, 5.50
R Hollinshead 2 17 11.8 +£38.00 +223.5 4.05
Ian Williams 6 56 10.7 -£13.50 -24.1 2.55
K C Bailey 2 19 10.5 -£12.38 -65.1 4.05, 4.05
N A Twiston-Davies 4 40 10.0 -£28.04 -70.1 2.25, 4.40, 5.15, 5.50
P R Webber 2 20 10.0 -£8.00 -40.0 3.30, 4.40, 5.15
D Pipe 4 45 8.9 -£8.00 -17.8 3.30
M Sheppard 1 12 8.3 -£7.50 -62.5 3.30
T R George 1 12 8.3 -£3.00 -25.0 2.55, 3.30
Evan Williams 5 63 7.9 -£50.35 -79.9 2.25

Bangor-On-Dee trainer stats ALL CHASES 2005 – Thursday 7th Oct 2010 (ordered by strike rate – min 3 runs or 1 win)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%) Engagements
M A Barnes 1 1 100.0 +£9.00 +900.0 2.55
Mrs Caroline Keevil 1 2 50.0 +£2.50 +125.0 4.40
A King 11 27 40.7 +£13.22 +49.0 5.15
P J Hobbs 9 31 29.0 +£11.67 +37.7 2.25, 2.55, 4.40, 5.50
N G Richards 2 7 28.6 +£6.00 +85.7 5.50
M Keighley 2 8 25.0 +£0.75 +9.4 2.55
N J Henderson 2 10 20.0 -£4.00 -40.0 5.50
T R George 4 20 20.0 -£6.25 -31.3 2.55, 3.30
Jonjo O’Neill 18 93 19.4 -£24.32 -26.1 4.05, 4.05, 4.40, 5.50
Ian Williams 4 21 19.1 +£6.21 +29.5 2.55
H D Daly 5 27 18.5 +£3.25 +12.0 5.15
P R Webber 3 17 17.7 +£1.25 +7.4 3.30, 4.40, 5.15
B J M Ryall 2 12 16.7 +£15.00 +125.0 4.40
J J Quinn 1 6 16.7 +£7.00 +116.7 2.55
P F Nicholls 3 18 16.7 -£10.13 -56.3 2.25, 4.05, 5.15
N A Twiston-Davies 5 31 16.1 -£15.50 -50.0 2.25, 4.40, 5.15, 5.50
M F Harris 1 7 14.3 +£2.50 +35.7 4.05, 5.50
D McCain Jnr 9 66 13.6 -£15.38 -23.3 2.25, 2.55, 3.30, 4.05, 5.15, 5.50
Mrs Caroline Bailey 1 10 10.0 -£7.25 -72.5 2.25, 4.40
D Pipe 2 24 8.3 -£12.50 -52.1 3.30
J R Cornwall 1 12 8.3 -£6.00 -50.0 3.30, 5.15
Miss Lucinda V Russell 1 12 8.3 -£5.00 -41.7 3.30
Evan Williams 2 26 7.7 +£1.00 +3.8 2.25
J M Jefferson 1 15 6.7 -£12.00 -80.0 4.40, 5.50
R Lee 1 20 5.0 -£15.00 -75.0 2.55
P Bowen 1 32 3.1 -£29.63 -92.6 4.40

Chepstow trainer stats ALL RACES 2005 – Thursday 7th Oct 2010 (ordered by strike rate – min 3 runs or 1 win)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%) Engagements
D W P Arbuthnot 2 5 40.0 +£3.83 +76.7 5.45
N J Henderson 7 31 22.6 +£1.13 +3.6 3.25
M F Harris 6 27 22.2 +£50.00 +185.2 2.20, 4.35
P F Nicholls 56 255 22.0 -£51.20 -20.1 2.20, 2.50, 3.25, 4.00, 4.35, 5.10, 5.45
Nick Williams 7 34 20.6 +£36.20 +106.5 4.00, 4.35, 5.10
A G Newcombe 1 5 20.0 +£2.50 +50.0 5.45
J L Flint 3 15 20.0 £0.00 +0.0 4.35
Simon Earle 1 5 20.0 +£12.00 +240.0 2.50
W K Goldsworthy 5 27 18.5 +£26.13 +96.8 2.50
Miss E C Lavelle 6 34 17.7 -£7.42 -21.8 5.10, 5.45
P J Hobbs 34 196 17.4 +£4.61 +2.3 2.50, 3.25, 4.00, 4.35, 5.10, 5.45
T R George 8 50 16.0 -£2.88 -5.8 4.00, 4.35
A King 20 128 15.6 -£29.31 -22.9 2.20
D A Rees 4 26 15.4 -£1.00 -3.8 2.20
W J Greatrex 1 7 14.3 -£2.67 -38.1 4.00
C L Tizzard 19 135 14.1 -£5.63 -4.2 2.50, 5.10, 5.45, 5.45
O Sherwood 4 34 11.8 -£20.53 -60.4 2.50
B J Llewellyn 8 70 11.4 +£49.08 +70.1 2.20
N A Twiston-Davies 18 162 11.1 -£77.75 -48.0 5.10
Jonjo O’Neill 15 144 10.4 -£72.22 -50.2 3.25, 4.35, 5.10
P Bowen 6 68 8.8 -£38.92 -57.2 5.45
A J Honeyball 1 12 8.3 +£1.00 +8.3 5.45
J G Portman 2 25 8.0 -£11.50 -46.0 5.45
Evan Williams 13 176 7.4 -£61.13 -34.7 2.20, 4.35, 5.10
Mrs S Gardner 1 15 6.7 -£11.00 -73.3 5.45
R Lee 5 77 6.5 -£31.50 -40.9 2.50, 5.10
R H Buckler 3 50 6.0 -£19.75 -39.5 3.25, 5.10
A W Carroll 2 52 3.9 -£32.00 -61.5 4.00, 4.35, 4.35, 5.45
Andrew Turnell 1 28 3.6 -£22.50 -80.4 2.50
J G M O’Shea 2 72 2.8 -£46.00 -63.9 5.45

Chepstow trainer stats ALL HURDLES 2005 – Thursday 7th Oct 2010 (ordered by strike rate – min 3 runs or 1 win)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%) Engagements
Nick Williams 5 13 38.5 +£46.20 +355.4 4.00, 4.35, 5.10
M F Harris 5 16 31.3 +£50.00 +312.5 2.20, 4.35
T R George 7 27 25.9 +£17.13 +63.4 4.00, 4.35
D W P Arbuthnot 1 4 25.0 +£3.00 +75.0 5.45
Miss E C Lavelle 3 15 20.0 -£2.92 -19.5 5.10, 5.45
Simon Earle 1 5 20.0 +£12.00 +240.0 2.50
W J Greatrex 1 5 20.0 -£0.67 -13.4 4.00
W K Goldsworthy 3 15 20.0 -£1.38 -9.2 2.50
P F Nicholls 28 143 19.6 -£28.25 -19.8 2.20, 2.50, 3.25, 4.00, 4.35, 5.10, 5.45
A King 15 84 17.9 -£8.56 -10.2 2.20
P J Hobbs 21 122 17.2 +£3.76 +3.1 2.50, 3.25, 4.00, 4.35, 5.10, 5.45
N J Henderson 3 19 15.8 -£2.00 -10.5 3.25
C L Tizzard 6 40 15.0 +£8.25 +20.6 2.50, 5.10, 5.45, 5.45
J L Flint 1 7 14.3 -£1.50 -21.4 4.35
O Sherwood 2 14 14.3 -£6.78 -48.4 2.50
P Bowen 4 35 11.4 -£19.25 -55.0 5.45
N A Twiston-Davies 9 79 11.4 -£37.38 -47.3 5.10
Mrs S Gardner 1 9 11.1 -£5.00 -55.6 5.45
Jonjo O’Neill 7 82 8.5 -£45.27 -55.2 3.25, 4.35, 5.10
Evan Williams 9 108 8.3 -£15.00 -13.9 2.20, 4.35, 5.10
B J Llewellyn 4 50 8.0 +£33.33 +66.7 2.20
R Lee 2 25 8.0 -£6.50 -26.0 2.50, 5.10
R H Buckler 1 23 4.4 -£6.00 -26.1 3.25, 5.10
J G M O’Shea 2 53 3.8 -£27.00 -50.9 5.45
A W Carroll 1 39 2.6 -£32.00 -82.1 4.00, 4.35, 4.35, 5.45

Chepstow trainer stats ALL CHASES 2005 – Thursday 7th Oct 2010 (ordered by strike rate – min 3 runs or 1 win)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%) Engagements
D W P Arbuthnot 1 1 100.0 +£0.83 +83.3 5.45
J L Flint 2 6 33.3 +£3.50 +58.3 4.35
N J Henderson 2 6 33.3 +£1.63 +27.1 3.25
D A Rees 4 15 26.7 +£10.00 +66.7 2.20
P F Nicholls 18 83 21.7 -£19.68 -23.7 2.20, 2.50, 3.25, 4.00, 4.35, 5.10, 5.45
B J Llewellyn 4 19 21.1 +£16.75 +88.2 2.20
P J Hobbs 12 63 19.1 +£6.35 +10.1 2.50, 3.25, 4.00, 4.35, 5.10, 5.45
C L Tizzard 12 70 17.1 +£7.38 +10.5 2.50, 5.10, 5.45, 5.45
J G Portman 2 12 16.7 +£1.50 +12.5 5.45
A King 4 25 16.0 -£6.25 -25.0 2.20
Jonjo O’Neill 7 44 15.9 -£11.33 -25.7 3.25, 4.35, 5.10
Miss E C Lavelle 2 13 15.4 -£3.00 -23.1 5.10, 5.45
W K Goldsworthy 1 8 12.5 +£26.00 +325.0 2.50
A W Carroll 1 10 10.0 +£3.00 +30.0 4.00, 4.35, 4.35, 5.45
M F Harris 1 10 10.0 +£1.00 +10.0 2.20, 4.35
Nick Williams 2 21 9.5 -£10.00 -47.6 4.00, 4.35, 5.10
R H Buckler 2 22 9.1 -£8.75 -39.8 3.25, 5.10
N A Twiston-Davies 5 61 8.2 -£32.75 -53.7 5.10
P Bowen 2 25 8.0 -£11.67 -46.7 5.45
O Sherwood 1 14 7.1 -£11.25 -80.4 2.50
Evan Williams 4 57 7.0 -£35.13 -61.6 2.20, 4.35, 5.10
Andrew Turnell 1 16 6.3 -£10.50 -65.6 2.50
R Lee 3 49 6.1 -£22.00 -44.9 2.50, 5.10
T R George 1 17 5.9 -£14.00 -82.4 4.00, 4.35

Hexham trainer stats ALL RACES 2005 – Thursday 7th Oct 2010 (ordered by strike rate – min 3 runs or 1 win)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%) Engagements
S R B Crawford 1 2 50.0 +£0.25 +12.5 3.45, 3.45, 4.55
Tim Vaughan 4 19 21.1 -£11.28 -59.4 4.20
G A Swinbank 8 40 20.0 -£17.72 -44.3 2.00, 2.35, 5.30
N G Richards 17 96 17.7 -£15.18 -15.8 4.20, 4.20
J Howard Johnson 24 143 16.8 -£12.88 -9.0 2.00, 4.20, 4.20
Mrs S J Smith 23 142 16.2 +£37.08 +26.1 3.10, 3.10, 3.45, 4.20, 5.30
D McCain Jnr 12 79 15.2 -£30.76 -38.9 2.00, 2.35, 3.45, 5.30
J M Jefferson 15 99 15.2 -£24.39 -24.6 5.30
Ferdy Murphy 18 120 15.0 -£31.82 -26.5 2.00, 2.35, 4.20
Mrs R Dobbin 1 8 12.5 -£5.25 -65.6 3.10
Mrs L B Normile 5 45 11.1 +£65.75 +146.1 3.10, 4.20
P Monteith 8 72 11.1 -£11.70 -16.2 2.35, 4.55
T D Walford 3 27 11.1 -£9.25 -34.3 2.35
M Todhunter 13 121 10.7 -£40.58 -33.5 3.10, 3.45
A C Whillans 6 57 10.5 +£10.25 +18.0 3.10, 3.45
Miss Lucinda V Russell 15 145 10.3 -£50.68 -34.9 3.10, 3.45, 3.45, 4.20, 4.55
Miss L Harrison 1 10 10.0 -£7.25 -72.5 3.45, 4.20
M A Barnes 9 94 9.6 +£125.13 +133.1 5.30
W Amos 3 33 9.1 +£16.50 +50.0 4.20
Mrs S C Bradburne 3 35 8.6 -£20.25 -57.9 3.10
C Grant 4 47 8.5 -£15.00 -31.9 5.30
R C Guest 9 109 8.3 -£68.03 -62.4 3.10
Mrs K Walton 4 57 7.0 -£38.25 -67.1 4.55
R Nixon 4 58 6.9 -£28.13 -48.5 3.10, 3.45
A Crook 1 18 5.6 -£1.00 -5.6 2.35
J C Haynes 1 29 3.5 -£18.00 -62.1 4.55
F P Murtagh 1 65 1.5 -£60.50 -93.1 3.10

Hexham trainer stats ALL HURDLES 2005 – Thursday 7th Oct 2010 (ordered by strike rate – min 3 runs or 1 win)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%) Engagements
Tim Vaughan 3 13 23.1 -£6.50 -50.0 4.20
G A Swinbank 4 20 20.0 -£13.05 -65.3 2.00, 2.35, 5.30
J Howard Johnson 17 92 18.5 +£9.17 +10.0 2.00, 4.20, 4.20
Ferdy Murphy 10 57 17.5 -£21.15 -37.1 2.00, 2.35, 4.20
N G Richards 11 64 17.2 -£8.76 -13.7 4.20, 4.20
Mrs S J Smith 12 70 17.1 +£15.33 +21.9 3.10, 3.10, 3.45, 4.20, 5.30
Mrs R Dobbin 1 6 16.7 -£3.25 -54.2 3.10
Miss L Harrison 1 7 14.3 -£4.25 -60.7 3.45, 4.20
D McCain Jnr 7 53 13.2 -£24.27 -45.8 2.00, 2.35, 3.45, 5.30
C Grant 3 24 12.5 -£1.00 -4.2 5.30
M A Barnes 9 72 12.5 +£147.13 +204.3 5.30
Mrs S C Bradburne 1 9 11.1 -£3.00 -33.3 3.10
J M Jefferson 6 56 10.7 -£35.99 -64.3 5.30
P Monteith 3 28 10.7 -£2.30 -8.2 2.35, 4.55
Mrs L B Normile 2 19 10.5 -£7.75 -40.8 3.10, 4.20
A C Whillans 3 33 9.1 +£7.50 +22.7 3.10, 3.45
T D Walford 1 11 9.1 -£2.00 -18.2 2.35
Miss Lucinda V Russell 5 66 7.6 -£44.68 -67.7 3.10, 3.45, 3.45, 4.20, 4.55
R C Guest 4 57 7.0 -£39.90 -70.0 3.10
M Todhunter 5 72 6.9 -£30.83 -42.8 3.10, 3.45
Mrs K Walton 2 30 6.7 -£20.75 -69.2 4.55
W Amos 1 17 5.9 -£9.50 -55.9 4.20
R Nixon 1 34 2.9 -£28.00 -82.4 3.10, 3.45

Hexham trainer stats ALL CHASES 2005 – Thursday 7th Oct 2010 (ordered by strike rate – min 3 runs or 1 win)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%) Engagements
A Crook 1 3 33.3 +£14.00 +466.7 2.35
J M Jefferson 7 27 25.9 +£5.60 +20.7 5.30
D McCain Jnr 4 16 25.0 +£1.90 +11.9 2.00, 2.35, 3.45, 5.30
N G Richards 5 25 20.0 -£2.42 -9.7 4.20, 4.20
M Todhunter 8 46 17.4 -£6.75 -14.7 3.10, 3.45
T D Walford 2 12 16.7 -£3.25 -27.1 2.35
Tim Vaughan 1 6 16.7 -£4.78 -79.6 4.20
A C Whillans 3 20 15.0 +£6.75 +33.8 3.10, 3.45
R Nixon 3 20 15.0 +£3.88 +19.4 3.10, 3.45
Mrs S J Smith 8 56 14.3 +£24.00 +42.9 3.10, 3.10, 3.45, 4.20, 5.30
Miss Lucinda V Russell 10 71 14.1 +£2.00 +2.8 3.10, 3.45, 3.45, 4.20, 4.55
Mrs L B Normile 3 22 13.6 +£77.50 +352.3 3.10, 4.20
P Monteith 5 42 11.9 -£7.40 -17.6 2.35, 4.55
J Howard Johnson 4 34 11.8 -£20.45 -60.2 2.00, 4.20, 4.20
Ferdy Murphy 6 54 11.1 -£9.50 -17.6 2.00, 2.35, 4.20
R C Guest 5 48 10.4 -£24.13 -50.3 3.10
Mrs K Walton 2 20 10.0 -£10.50 -52.5 4.55
C Grant 1 13 7.7 -£4.00 -30.8 5.30
Mrs S C Bradburne 2 26 7.7 -£17.25 -66.3 3.10
W Amos 1 13 7.7 +£21.00 +161.5 4.20
J C Haynes 1 17 5.9 -£6.00 -35.3 4.55
F P Murtagh 1 30 3.3 -£25.50 -85.0 3.10

Saturday stats

Saturday, September 25th, 2010 at 2:37 pm  
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For anyone having a bet at Wolves tonight these trainer course stats should help.

Wolverhampton trainer stats ALL RACES 2006 – Thursday 23rd Sept 2010 (ordered by strike rate – min 3 runs or 1 win)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%) Engagements
M J Grassick 7 21 33.3 +£15.00 +71.4 8.05, 9.05
D H Brown 2 9 22.2 -£2.88 -31.9 8.35
T G Dascombe 34 172 19.8 -£7.67 -4.5 7.35
B J Meehan 25 136 18.4 -£32.35 -23.8 7.35
P W D’Arcy 10 57 17.5 -£11.18 -19.6 7.35
R Charlton 8 46 17.4 -£10.91 -23.7 6.05
D W P Arbuthnot 9 53 17.0 -£1.12 -2.1 6.35, 8.05
H Morrison 16 96 16.7 -£11.48 -12.0 5.35
M Botti 27 170 15.9 +£27.71 +16.3 7.35
D J S Ffrench Davis 13 86 15.1 +£37.50 +43.6 7.35
M Wigham 23 153 15.0 -£34.50 -22.5 6.05, 7.05
M W Easterby 28 192 14.6 +£17.93 +9.3 6.35, 7.05, 8.05, 8.35
J R Fanshawe 9 62 14.5 -£19.28 -31.1 8.05
K A Ryan 80 572 14.0 -£157.90 -27.6 5.35, 8.35
W R Swinburn 23 167 13.8 +£19.73 +11.8 7.05
D M Simcock 18 131 13.7 +£1.84 +1.4 7.35, 8.05
M R Channon 32 233 13.7 -£16.70 -7.2 6.05
R J Hodges 15 116 12.9 -£3.26 -2.8 5.35, 8.05
P J Makin 11 86 12.8 -£1.92 -2.2 5.35, 9.05
B M R Haslam 1 8 12.5 -£3.50 -43.8 7.05
S Kirk 30 243 12.4 -£45.20 -18.6 5.35, 6.05, 6.35
Ollie Pears 11 92 12.0 -£8.05 -8.7 9.05
J Gask 14 122 11.5 -£12.64 -10.4 8.35
P D Evans 80 715 11.2 -£161.02 -22.5 5.35, 6.35, 6.35, 7.05
J J Quinn 13 117 11.1 -£5.17 -4.4 8.35
J G Given 25 227 11.0 +£4.51 +2.0 7.35
J A Glover 8 74 10.8 -£24.42 -33.0 8.35
D Carroll 21 195 10.8 +£3.16 +1.6 7.05
D Shaw 67 633 10.6 -£98.30 -15.5 8.35
A G Foster 2 19 10.5 -£5.00 -26.3 8.05
J R Jenkins 9 88 10.2 +£4.50 +5.1 8.35
R M H Cowell 9 88 10.2 -£39.08 -44.4 6.05, 8.35
J A Osborne 27 265 10.2 -£112.29 -42.4 6.05, 8.35
Mrs A J Perrett 3 30 10.0 -£0.25 -0.8 8.05
J C Fox 4 41 9.8 £0.00 +0.0 7.05
M G Quinlan 12 126 9.5 -£27.17 -21.6 6.35
Lucinda Featherstone 8 84 9.5 +£47.00 +56.0 8.05
R A Harris 49 574 8.5 -£110.74 -19.3 5.35, 6.05
R M Whitaker 4 47 8.5 -£10.50 -22.3 7.35, 9.05
P Howling 37 447 8.3 -£151.84 -34.0 7.05
W M Brisbourne 61 764 8.0 -£374.14 -49.0 8.05
Miss Amy Weaver 1 13 7.7 +£4.00 +30.8 5.35, 7.05
B P J Baugh 27 364 7.4 -£46.30 -12.7 6.35, 9.05
David Pinder 5 68 7.4 -£8.00 -11.8 9.05
Mrs L Stubbs 3 42 7.1 -£30.75 -73.2 7.05
John Berry 2 28 7.1 -£7.50 -26.8 7.35
Mrs R Carr 9 128 7.0 +£21.58 +16.9 9.05
B Palling 16 244 6.6 -£104.17 -42.7 8.05, 9.05
C R Dore 15 233 6.4 -£121.88 -52.3 7.35
A J Mccabe 22 345 6.4 -£144.50 -41.9 7.05, 8.05
Mrs A Duffield 6 94 6.4 -£40.00 -42.6 6.05, 7.35
D Flood 2 35 5.7 -£20.75 -59.3 8.35
R J Price 10 184 5.4 -£114.50 -62.2 8.35, 9.05
J L Flint 2 37 5.4 -£27.17 -73.4 7.35
A W Carroll 15 295 5.1 -£155.88 -52.8 6.35
J J Lambe 2 42 4.8 -£27.00 -64.3 9.05
M Dods 2 48 4.2 -£33.00 -68.8 6.05
J M Bradley 14 370 3.8 -£231.00 -62.4 8.35
H J Evans 1 30 3.3 -£25.00 -83.3 7.35
Patrick Morris 2 86 2.3 -£62.00 -72.1 6.35
Jedd O’Keeffe 1 45 2.2 -£41.00 -91.1 9.05

Saturday stats on fire!

Sunday, September 12th, 2010 at 1:34 pm  
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Let’s look at how the Saturday stats I posted on here yesterday performed.

Good races for Favs – 2.35 and 5.55 Chester – produced one joint fav winner at 4/1

Draw biases - STRONG 2.15 and 2.50 Sandown (HIGH draws) – both races were won by high drawn horses with the 2.15 seeing the top 2 draws fill first and second at 10/1 and 7/1 (forecast paid me a tidy £76.49 to a £1 unit). The 2.50 saw 2 of the top 3 draws come first and second. ; 5.30 Kempton (HIGH draws) – won by a middle draw.

Horses with strong trainer stats – 4.25 Doncaster – Buthelezi  WON 11/8; 4.40 Goodwood Fine Style – non runner

Horses to trade “in running” (should go lower “in running” to offer free bet or arb) -

2.15 Sandown – Cape Royal traded 3.1 from a BSP of 7.75

3.05 Chester – Glenridding won at a huge BSP of 27.86 / Sir George 2nd and traded3 points lower “in running”

Some cracking results there – for the record members of Racing Trends (www.racingtrends.co.uk) received 6 winners from 16 from the daily positive stats (including 12/1. We also had a 66/1 3rd); and 5 successful losers from the daily negative stats.

Saturday stats

Saturday, September 11th, 2010 at 10:53 am  
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Apologies for lack of posts but been busy on a few projects including a huge National Hunt Trainer Report which will be available FREE to anyone who joins my Punter Profits website (www.punterprofits.com).

Onto some strong Saturday stats:

Good races for Favs – 2.35 and 5.55 Chester

Draw biases - STRONG 2.15 and 2.50 Sandown (HIGH draws); 5.30 Kempton (HIGH draws)

Horses with strong trainer stats – 4.25 Doncaster – Buthelezi; 4.40 Goodwood Fine Style

Horses to trade “in running” (should go lower “in running” to offer free bet or arb) -

2.15 Sandown – Cape Royal

3.05 Chester – Glenridding / Sir George

Bath trainer stats for tonight

Saturday, August 21st, 2010 at 5:38 pm  
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Some trainer stats to help you at Bath tonight

Bath trainer stats ALL RACES 2005- 2009 (ordered by strike rate – min 3 runs or 1 win)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%) Engagements
D R Lanigan 1 3 33.3 +£1.33 +44.3 7.05
M P Tregoning 12 39 30.8 +£2.24 +5.8 7.35
M Johnston 12 46 26.1 -£7.92 -17.2 6.35, 7.35
J J Quinn 1 4 25.0 +£3.00 +75.0 7.05
B J Meehan 16 82 19.5 +£6.66 +8.1 7.35
M Hill 2 12 16.7 -£5.30 -44.2 7.05
M R Channon 33 212 15.6 -£18.14 -8.6 6.05, 8.05
P W Hiatt 5 35 14.3 +£33.00 +94.3 7.05
R Hannon 24 169 14.2 -£52.30 -31.0 5.35, 6.35, 7.35
A M Balding 21 151 13.9 -£8.82 -5.8 6.05, 6.35, 7.05
H Morrison 9 65 13.9 -£18.25 -28.1 6.05, 8.05, 8.05
B W Hills 11 82 13.4 -£28.68 -35.0 7.35
Ian Williams 4 30 13.3 -£5.25 -17.5 6.35
H Candy 5 39 12.8 -£23.26 -59.6 7.05
W R Muir 8 67 11.9 -£2.50 -3.7 6.35, 8.05
A B Haynes 12 101 11.9 +£20.25 +20.1 8.05
R M Beckett 11 99 11.1 -£14.17 -14.3 6.35
Eve Johnson Houghton 4 37 10.8 -£12.38 -33.5 6.35
P D Evans 16 154 10.4 -£15.47 -10.0 6.05
Dr J R J Naylor 3 31 9.7 +£37.00 +119.4 8.05
J G Portman 5 53 9.4 -£14.00 -26.4 5.35
G L Moore 5 54 9.3 -£19.13 -35.4 8.05
R A Farrant 1 11 9.1 -£7.00 -63.6 7.05
A King 3 36 8.3 -£26.00 -72.2 6.35
B R Millman 11 136 8.1 -£44.65 -32.8 6.05
M S Saunders 9 113 8.0 -£44.50 -39.4 6.35
J S Moore 6 80 7.5 -£51.23 -64.0 6.35
D J S Ffrench Davis 3 43 7.0 -£28.50 -66.3 6.05
R A Harris 13 187 7.0 -£49.75 -26.6 6.05
P F I Cole 3 46 6.5 -£38.60 -83.9 5.35, 6.35
R Hollinshead 2 34 5.9 -£12.50 -36.8 7.05
A W Carroll 5 128 3.9 -£86.17 -67.3 7.05, 8.05
W M Brisbourne 2 55 3.6 -£33.00 -60.0 8.05
I A Wood 1 57 1.8 -£38.00 -66.7 5.35
J Gask 0 12 0.0 -£12.00 -100.0 7.05
H R A Cecil 0 11 0.0 -£11.00 -100.0 5.35
Andrew Reid 0 6 0.0 -£6.00 -100.0 6.05
Miss Jo Crowley 0 5 0.0 -£5.00 -100.0 7.05

Some Horse Racing Stats for Saturday

Saturday, July 17th, 2010 at 11:44 am  
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Saturday stats

 Best races for favourites:

Newmarket  1.55

Newbury 2.45, 5.05

Haydock 6.40

Lingfield 6.50, 7.20, 7.50

In running notes

Horses I expect to trade lower “in running” – offering either free bets nothing or arbing opportunities to win money whatever the result:

3.25 Ripon Templetuohy Max

5.15 Newmarket Sutton Veny

 6.50 Lingfield Sermons Mount

 8.10 Haydock  Welsh Emperor

Saturday horse racing stats

Saturday, July 10th, 2010 at 3:58 pm  
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Some stats for tonight: 3 horses to AVOID / LAY

NEGATIVE STATS

5.30    Nottingham – Sacrilege

6.45    Salisbury – Pragmatist

8.25    Salisbury – Shy

All have poor stats.

Moving onto Trainers in form with runners tonight:

Name                      Engagements

J C Fox                    Sali 6.45

R Charlton                Sali 7.20, Sali 8.55

A C Whillans             Hami 6.30, Hami 8.40

J Noseda                 Sali 7.50

Micky Hammond        Hami 8.40

T D Barron               Hami 7.00

J L Dunlop                Sali 6.15, Sali 7.20, Sali 7.20, Sali 7.50

L M Cumani              Sali 7.50

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