Those of you who were following the blog lays the final totals from the blog postings was:
115 winning lays out of 126 bets
Profit to BSP (after 5% commission) +60.63pts
Since switching to the Racing Trends full member’s area the results have continued to be good:
76 winning lays from 86
Profit (assuming 5% commission) +31.16
ROI +36.2%
Thursday
2.05 Pertemps Handicap Hurdle Final
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Recent form: 5 of the last 10 winners won LTO. 50% of the winners may not seem that significant until you realize that LTO winners have provided less than 18% of the total runners. Indeed going back a further five years sees LTO winners providing 10 of the last 16 winners. |
| Fitness: 8 of the last 10 winners had a break of over 30 days since their last run. |
| Price: 8 of the last 10 winners were 10/1 or bigger. Two wins for horses priced 50/1 and 2 placed runners at 66/1. |
| Trainers: Jonjo O’ Neill and Nigel Twiston-Davies have both won the race twice in the last 10 years. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Favourites/Market: 1 win from 11 for favourites; 0 wins from 23 for 2nd and 3rd favourites (inc. joints). |
| Age: 5 year olds have produced 0 wins from 26; 10 year old and older are 0 from 27. |
| Course winners: Course winners have provided 0 winners from 49. |
GENERAL STATS
| Finishing positions of favourites: 4, 14, 1, 7, 15, 8, 18, 2/8, 12, 12 |
| Age: 5yos see above 6yos have won 3 races from 50 qualifiers (SR 6%); 7yos have won 1 race from 64 qualifiers (SR 1.6%); 8yos have won 2 from 47 qualifiers (SR 4.3%); 9yos have won 4 from 22 qualifiers (SR 18.2%); 10yo+ see above. |
| Trends Summary: With large fields this race is difficult to trim to a manageable shortlist, but LTO winners deserve close scrutiny. In terms of price don’t be afraid to back bigger priced runners as this race tends to be very open. Focus on runners aged 6 to 9 and it seems sensible to avoid previous course winners. |
3.20 Ladbrokes World Hurdle
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Recent form: All of the last 10 finished 1st or 2nd LTO. |
| Market: 9 of the last 10 winners came from the top 3 in the betting. |
| Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 8/1 or shorter. |
| Previous winners: 3 horses have managed to repeat wins in the race. |
| Last Market Price: Horses priced 11/2 or shorter LTO provided all of the last 10 winners. |
| Age: 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 6 to 8. |
| Running style: 7 of the last 10 winners were held up. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Age: Horses aged 9 or older are 1 from 39; 5yos are 0 from 8. |
| Trainers: Irish runners are 0 wins from 22. |
| Breeding: Irish breds have won just 1 race from 55 qualifiers (LOSS £48.50;
ROI -88.2%) |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 4 wins from 11 (LOSS of £0.92; ROI -8.3%). |
| Finishing positions of favourites: 6, 1, 1/3, 2, 2, 3, F, 1, 4, 1 |
| Trends Summary: this race has been market driven in recent years with the highest priced winner being 8/1. Previous market considerations have produced strong trends with horses priced 11/2 or shorter LTO providing all 10 winners. The age bracket to focus on is 6 to 8 year olds, while “in running” punters are better off backing horses that are held up early in the race In terms of negatives, both Irish trainers and Irish bred horses have really struggled in recent years. |
4.00 Byrne Group Plate Chase
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Position LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners finished in the first five LTO. |
| Price: All of the last 10 winners have been priced 12/1 or bigger (4 have been 25/1 or bigger). |
| Weight: 8 of the last 10 winners carried 10st 9lb or less. |
| Age: 8 of the last 10 winners have been aged 6 to 9. |
| Breeding: 5 of the last 10 winners were French bred. |
| Days since last run: 8 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for between 3 and 6 weeks. |
| Trainers: Nicky Henderson has been successful twice as has Venetia Williams. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Market: No wins for any horse from the top four of the betting. |
| Position LTO: Horses that finished 7th or worse LTO have produced 0 wins from 69. |
| Weight: The top 4 in the weights (inc. joints) have produced 0 winners from 42. |
| Headgear: Horses wearing any type of headgear (blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, etc) have provided just 1 winner from 50. |
| Age: Horses aged 10 or older have won 2 races from 58 runners. |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 0 wins in the last 10 years and just 1 win since 1981. |
| Finishing positions of favourites: 2, 2, U, 2, 4, F, 19, F, 2, 2 |
| Trends Summary: With the Ryanair now in existence, the weight stats are potentially less applicable as the classier runners will generally bypass this race. Having said that, horses near the top of the handicap are still likely to struggle. This race has got several strong looking stats and key stats seem to be – finished in the first five LTO, aged 6 to 9, a double figure price and carrying 10st 9lb or less. Favourites have an awful record with just 1 win in the last 29 renewals, while there have been no wins at all for any runners from the top four of the betting. |
4.40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Price: 6 of the last 10 winners have been 12/1 or bigger (inc. 40/1, 33/1 twice). |
| Price: 24 of the 40 win and placed horses were priced 16/1 or bigger. |
| Age: 6 of the last 10 winners have been aged 9. |
| Market position LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners were favourite or 2nd favourite LTO (PROFIT £26.00; ROI +40.6%). |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Age: Horses aged 11 or older are 0 wins from 33; 7yo or younger are 1 from 65. |
| Distance LTO: Horses that ran over less than 3 miles LTO have produced 0 winners from 60. |
| Sex of horse: 14 mares have contested the race with only 1 being placed (3rd). |
| LTO race type: Horses that raced in a non handicap race LTO have provided 0 winners from 44. |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins and 3 placed from 11, which is solid considering the average field size is over 20 (PROFIT £3.00; ROI +27.3%). |
| Finishing positions of favourites: F, 1, 2, 3, 8, 8/9, 1, UR, 7, 3 |
| Trends Summary: this is an open race where you should not rule out the chances of big priced horses from a win or placed perspective. Look for horses for that ran over 3 miles or more LTO, and horses that were favourite or second favourite LTO. Age wise 9yos have a good record while 7 and younger / 11 or older have struggled. |
Wednesday 1.30 – 141st Year of the National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup (Amateurs) POSITIVE TRENDS
| Recent form: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first two LTO. |
| Age: 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 7 or 8. |
| Price: 4 of the last 8 winners have been priced 25/1 or bigger. |
| Running style: 7 of the last 10 winners were held up. |
| LTO race: 8 of the last 10 winners raced in a non handicap Novice Chase LTO. |
| LTO course: 5 of the last 10 winners raced at a Grade 1 British track LTO (PROFIT £29.00; ROI +45.3%). |
| Trainers: Jonjo O’Neill has been successful 3 times and Ferdy Murphy twice. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Age: 6 year olds or younger are 1 win from 35 (LOSS £21.00 ROI -63.6%); 9 year olds or older are 1 win from 44 (LOSS £33.00 ROI -75%). |
| Position LTO: Horses that finished 3rd or worse LTO have provided just 2 winners from 107. |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 1 win from 11. |
| Finishing positions of favourites: PU, 8, 2, 1/4, 5, 3, F, 5, 4, 5 |
| Sex of horse: 13 mares have contested the race with 0 wins. However, they have had 3 placed runs. |
| Trends Summary: Recent form is important with the 8 of the last 10 winners finishing first or 2nd LTO, while 7 and 8 year olds have been the most successful age band. Horses that are held up have the best record so “in running” punters take note. Also look for horses that ran in a Novice Chase LTO with preference to any runner that ran at a British Grade 1 track LTO. |
2.05 Neptune Investment Novices’ Hurdle POSITIVE TRENDS
| Recent form: 9 of the last 10 winners won or finished 2nd LTO (7 won). 9 of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last two starts. |
| Market: Top 5 in betting have provided 9 of the last 10 winners. |
| Last run: All of the last 10 winners had raced within the last 60 days. |
| Age: All of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6. |
| Race type LTO: 8 of the last10 winners contested a pattern race LTO. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Market: Horses 6th or bigger in the betting have produced 1 win from 118. |
| Age: Horses aged 7 or older have provided 0 winners from 35 runners. |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 11. |
| Finishing positions of favourites: 1, 4, 2, 2, 5/7, 2, 5, 13, 1, 3 |
| Trends Summary: There are some key stats that have held true for much longer than 10 years. For example, going back to 1982 only one horse that finished 3rd or worse LTO has gone onto win this race. In addition, 16 of the last 18 winners have come from the top five of the betting. Hence, these two stats will help you create your shortlist, and from there focus on 5 and 6yos. From a negative perspective ignore any horse that is coming off a lay off of longer than 2 months. |
2.40 RSA Chase POSITIVE TRENDS
| Recent form: All of the last 10 winners won or finished 2nd LTO (5 won). |
| Season form: All of the last 10 winners had won during the current season. |
| Age: 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 7. |
| Trainers: Both Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls have saddled 2 winners. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Age: Horses aged 8 or older have provided 1 winner from 42. |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites: 3 wins from 10 (PROFIT of £0.45; ROI +4.5%). |
| Finishing positions of favourites: 4, 5, 5, 3, 2, PU, 1, 1, 1, 5 |
| Trends Summary: 33 of last 36 winners finished 1st or 2nd LTO so this is the sensible starting point for shortlist purposes. Then make sure that if they finished 2nd LTO they have previously won this season. 7yos have an excellent record and demand very close scrutiny. Favourites have won three of the last four renewals, but don’t rule out bigger prices as double figure priced runners have won 4 of the last 9 renewals (including winners at 25/1 and 33/1). Finally, although it is difficult to quantify stats wise, traditional National Hunt bred horses have done best in this contest over the years. |
3.20 Queen Mother Champion Chase POSITIVE TRENDS
| Recent form: 8 of the last 10 winners won LTO. |
| Market: 7 of the last 10 winners have come from the top 2 of the betting. |
| Festival form: 7 of the last 10 winners had previously won at the Festival. |
| Days since last run: 9 of the last 10 winners had raced within the last 8 weeks. |
| Jockeys: 3 wins apiece for Ruby Walsh and Barry Geraghty. |
| Trainers: Paul Nicholls has won the race 3 times (also won in 1999). |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses priced 11/1 or bigger have won 1 from 64 (LOSS £47.00; ROI -73.4%). |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites: 4 wins from 10. |
| Finishing positions of favourites: 3, 1, 1, U, 1, F, F, 2, 1, 4 |
| Breeding: French breds have won 5 races from 32 qualifiers; Irish breds have won 5 races from 43 qualifiers; all other countries combined have won 0 races from 24. |
| Age: 5yos have 1 race from 1 qualifier (SR 100%);6yos have won 2 races from 10 qualifiers (SR 20%); 7yos have won 1 race from 9 qualifiers (SR 11.1%); 8yos have won 3 from 25 qualifiers (SR 12%); 9yos have won 2 from 27 qualifiers (SR 7.4%); 10yo+ have won 1 from 27 qualifiers (SR 3.7%). |
| Trends Summary: Last time out winners coupled with a position in the top 2 in the betting is a useful starting point, while previous winning form at the track / Festival has also been very important. In terms of negatives, only one horse has won at 11-1 or bigger in the last 10 years from 64 qualifiers. |
4.00 Coral Cup Hurdle POSITIVE TRENDS
| Recent form: 6 of the last 10 winners won LTO (6 of the last 8). |
| Form: All of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last four starts. |
| Market: 7 of the last 10 winners have come from the top 6 of the betting. |
| Age: 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 to 7. |
| Breeding: 5 of the last 10 winners have been French bred. They have provided 50% of the winners from only 19% of the total runners. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Weight: Horses carrying 11st 3lb or more have provided just 1 winner from 58 (LOSS £46.00; ROI -79.3%). |
| Age: Horses aged 8 or older have won just 1 from 87 (LOSS £76.00; ROI -87.4%). |
| Course winners: Previous course winners are 1 win from 48. |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites: 1 win from 10, but with an average field of 27 this should be no surprise. |
| Finishing positions of favourites: 5, 26, 1, 3, 9, F, 16, 18, 10, 12 |
| Trainers: 3 of the last 10 winners were trained in Ireland. |
| Trends Summary: in a race where the field is invariably close to 30 runners, the use of key trends will help narrow the field down to a much smaller group of horses that statistically have the best chance of winning. It is usually best to concentrate on horses aged 7 or younger with preference to 6 and 7 year olds. LTO winners have a good record considering the competitive nature of the race – they have provided 60% of the winners from just 25% of the total runners. It might be difficult to eventually pinpoint one horse that is a clear trends’ pick, but with a big field there is no harm backing 2 or 3 against the field. |
5.15 Weatherbys Championship Bumper POSITIVE TRENDS
| Recent form: 9 of the last 10 winners won LTO (15 out of last 18). |
| Trainers: 8 of the last 10 winners have been trained in Ireland (3 by Willie Mullins – he also won the race in 1996, 1997 and 1998). |
| Market: 8 of the last 10 winners have come from the top 6 of the betting. |
| Breeding: Irish breds have won 8 out of the last 10 races. |
| Previous wins: All of the last 10 winners have previously won a bumper with at least 13 runners. 5 had won a bumper with more than 20 runners. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Age: Horses aged 4 are 1 win from 34. (Going back to 1996 they are 1 win from 53). |
| Breeding: French breds are 0 wins, 1 placed from 20 runners. |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites: 2 wins and 4 placed from 10. |
| Finishing positions of favourites: 2, 2, 1, 14, 1, 12, 8, 3, 3, 20 |
Trends Summary: a combination of Irish trained Irish bred and a winner LTO and you have a strong candidate for this race. Also look for horses that have previously won a bumper with at least 13 runners. 5yos used to dominate (they won all races from 1996 to 2004), but it is more open these days age wise. Indeed, Cue Card won for the 4yos last year breaking a run of 51 consecutive losers stretching back to 1996.
1.30 Supreme Novices Hurdle
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Recent form: 8 of the last 10 winners won last time out. |
| Previous hurdle form: The last 10 winners have all come into the race having won at least 50% of all their previous hurdle races |
| Trainers: 7 of the last 10 winners were trained in Ireland. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price 25/1+: 1 win from 100 (loss of £59.00; ROI -59%). |
| Running style: Only 2 winners in the last 10 years have won from racing from well off the pace (eg. midfield / back half of the field) from 114 qualifiers. |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 3 wins from 12 (loss of £0.75; ROI -6.5%). |
| Finishing positions of favourites: 3, 1, 1, 1, 13, 5, 3, 2/11/12, 5, 3 |
| Age: 4yos have won 0 races from 11 qualifiers (SR 0%); 5yos have won 3 races from 89 qualifiers (SR 3.4%); 6yos have won 5 from 73 qualifiers (SR 6.8%); 7yo+ have won 2 from 30 (SR 6.7%). |
| Breeding: Irish breds have won 7 races from 92 (SR 7.6%), British breds have won 3 from 47 (SR 6.4%) while all other countries have combined for 0 wins from 64. |
| Trends Summary: The best starting point looks to be recent form with 8 of the last 10 winners having won LTO – this is despite Menorah bucking this trend last year (he had finished 2nd LTO). With only 1 winner priced 25/1 or bigger since 2000 it seems best to leave outsiders alone, and in addition you do not want to be backing genuine hold up horses. In terms of breeding it definitely looks best to stick with British and Irish breds. Age wise 6yos and older have had the edge over 4 and 5 year olds. |
2.05 Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Recent form: 8 of the last 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd LTO. |
| Market: 9 of the last 10 winners came from runners 2nd to 5th in the betting. Focusing on those priced between 7/2 and 9/1, they have provided 9 winners from 34 runners (PROFIT of £35.50; ROI +104.4%). |
| Chase record: 9 of the last 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd on all completed chase starts. |
| Race type LTO: All of the last 10 winners raced in a Novice Chase LTO. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Favourites: 1 win from 10 (LOSS of £7.75; ROI -77.5%). |
| Price 10/1+: 0 winners and 8 placed from 92 qualifiers. |
| Running style: No horse has made all the running in the last 10 years – a stat that goes back to at least 1988. |
GENERAL STATS
| Finishing positions of favourites: 3, 2, 1, F, 7, 7, 2, 3, F, 8 |
| Age: 5yos have won 2 races from 24 qualifiers (SR 8.3%); 6yos have won 1 from 26 qualifiers (SR 3.8%); 7yos have won 5 races from 53 qualifiers (SR 9.4%); 8yos+ have won 2 from 35 (SR 5.7%). |
| Trends Summary: Look for horses that have finished 1st or 2nd on every completed start over fences. The runners just behind the market leader (2nd to 5th in betting) have been the value providing 9 winners. Indeed all winners have been 9/1 or shorter in price. Favourites have a poor win record with 1 win from 10, and going back to 1992 it stands at 2 from 18. In terms of age, 8 year olds and older tend to struggle, although Sizing Europe was 8 when he won last year. Before that win however, 8yos+ were 1 win from 69 stretching back to 1991. |
2.40 Handicap Chase
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Form: 9 of the last 10 winners won at least one of their last six starts. |
| Market: 6 of the last 10 winners have come from 2nd to 4th in the betting (PROFIT £19.50; ROI +69.6%). |
| Position LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO (6 won). |
| Official rating: All of the last 10 winners were rated between 129 and 143. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 1 win from 14 (LOSS of £8.00; ROI -57.1%). |
| Age: Horses aged 11 or older provided 0 winners from 30. |
| Weight: Horses carrying 11st or more have provided 0 winners from 59 qualifiers. |
GENERAL STATS
| Finishing positions of favourites: 2/5, 6, 3/11, 8, 9, PU, 2/3/6, 3, 1, 2 |
| Trends Summary: At least one win in the last six runs combined with a lowish weight are the key positive factors here. In terms of negatives it looks best to avoid horses aged 11 or older and/or horses carrying 11st or more. Favourites have a poor recent record too in terms of wins and the long term picture is bleak also with just 3 wins for market leaders since 1969. |
3.20 Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Recent form: 8 of the last 10 winners won LTO. |
| Price: 5 of the 10 winners were priced in double figures. |
| Course form: 9 of the last 10 winners had previously won or been placed at the Cheltenham Festival (7 had won). |
| Days since last run: All of the last 10 winners had raced within the last 51 days. |
| Age: Horses aged 7 or 8 have provided 6 of the last 10 winners. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Age: Horses aged 5 or younger provided 1 winner from 30; 9yo+ provided just 1 win from 27. |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites: 3 wins from 11 (LOSS of £2.22; ROI -20.2%). |
| Finishing positions of favourites: 1, PU, 3, 2, 1/9, 1, 6, 14, 3, 10 |
| Trends Summary: Previous win and placed form at the Festival has been important with the last 9 winners having previously achieved this (7 had won). The only one that had not was Sublimity and he had finished 4th in a previous festival. Horses that won LTO not surprisingly do well with 8 of the last 10 winners having won on their previous start. Indeed, going back further, 23 of the last 27 winners had won LTO. All winners have run within the past 2 months, while in general it pays to focus on 7 and 8yos who have provided 60% of the winners from 36% of the total runners. |
Those of you who were following the blog lays the final totals from the blog postings was:
115 winning lays out of 126 bets
Profit to BSP (after 5% commission) +60.63pts
The lays since then on my Racing Trneds member’s service stands thus:
56 winning lays from 63
Profit (assuming 5% commission) +17.31
ROI +27.5%
So the upward curve continues. To join the service use the link at the top of the page “Invest in the Full Service”
My sister website www.punterprofits.com is flying at present.For £24.99 a month you have all these threads – the latest results are shown here too with the majority showing a decent profit.
Sam Specials
February;
+30.22 adv prices/stakes
Totals since 10th June 2010;
+286.89 advised prices/stakes
+139.73 level stakes bsp
Sam’s systems
February;
Win – 10 from 76
+76.87
Place – 24 from 76
+33.71
Feb Total
+110.58
January;
Win – 4 from 34
+6.33
Place – 10 from 34
+12.83
JanTotal
+19.16
Overall;
Win 14 from 110
+83.20
Place 34 from 110
Total
+129.74
All totals include 5% Betfair commission deduction
Sam’s systems 2, all weather
February;
Win – 2 from 5
+3.42
Place – 4 from 5
+3.11
Feb Total
+6.53
January;
Win – 0 from 2
-2.00
Place – 0 from 2
-2.00
Total
-4.00 points
Overall;
Win – 2 from 7
+1.42
Place – 4 from 7
+1.11
Total
+2.52 points
All totals include 5% Betfair commission deduction
2 system to trial (up to Feb 19th)
System 1
Sels 329 Wins 64
S/R (%) 19.45
P/L (BFSP) +24.56
ROI (BFSP) +7.47%
System 2
Sels 233 Wins 24
S/R (%) 10.3
P/L (BFSP) +39.34
ROI (BFSP) +16.88%
System 2 places
P/L (BFSP) +32.95
ROI (BFSP) +14.14%
Everything Under One Roof
ALL WEATHER SYSTEMS
78 SELS
17 WINS
-7.60pts SP
-8.30pts BFSP
CLAIMING SYSTEM
44 SELS
21 WINS
+7.48pts SP
+10.39pts BFSP
NICHE SYSTEM
17 SELS
12 WINS
+10.04pts
THE S SYSTEM
75 sels
14 wins
+57.39pts SP
+95.27pts BFSP
TS SYSTEM 2
28 sels
3 wins
-3.50pts SP
-3.65pts BFSP
TW SYSTEM [NEW]
19 sels
7wins
-1.41pts SP
-1.32pts BFSP
OR1 system
Totals £595.10 from a starting bank of £400
NH Trainer Report
Impossible to keep track of all selections as there as many but Alan has kindly worked out the trainer of the month results:
OCTOBER
NIGEL TWISTON DAVIES ALL SELECTIONS +64.45pts
NOVEMBER
A KING OFF TRACK 121 DAYS OR MORE +24.26pts
DECEMBER
D PIPE N.H.F RACES & HORSES WEARING BLINKERS +57pts
JANUARY
A CARROLL HANDICAP HURDLES +19pts
FEBRUARY
NIGEL TWISTON DAVIES NHF +48pts
NH Pacey
Results to Feb 14th to BFSP
Chase + 19.74 Hurdle +30.96
Total +50.70
AW Pacey
Up to Feb 19th
Results to BFSP
Wolverhampton + 81.59
Kempton + 10.61
Southwell -1.74
Lingfield -16.71
TOTAL +73.72
General’s Portfolio
February Overall:- Stakes:- 121.52pts, Returns 108.47pts, -13.05pts overall
Portfolio overall, -13.92pts for the year on stakes of 263.24pts, -5.29% ROI
Chasing Value
Selections 101
Wins 14
Profit to SP +12
Profit to BOG +54.5
Profit to BSP +24.14
Chasing Value 2
Selections 36
Wins 5
Profit to SP -14.25
Profit to BOG -13
Profit to BSP -12.41
Mordins NH systems
Up to Feb 24th
27 wins from 99
Returns -22.89 pts
Predictors
Returns to BSP -8.14
Exacta returns +11.00
National Hunt Off Track Variables Trial
Results to SP only
National Hunt off track for 6 months or more
60 wins from 297
Profit/loss -26.28
ROI -8.8
National Hunt off track for 10 days or less
2 wins 25
Profit/loss -14.00
ROI -56.0%
NH Graded & Listed handicaps
Sels 49
Win 4
SP Profit +3.00
BSP Profit +9.05
£1000 Bank – when it is gone it’s gone
Current total £837.97 from starting bank of £1000.00
Southwell Breeding System
Bets 153
Wins 38
Profit to SP +43.56pts
Profit to BSP +58.19pts (after 5% commisssion)
Going Going Gone
12 wins from 83
SP +25.33
BSP +41.51
Headgear and other attire
1 win from 14
Profit/loss -7.5
Saintmartin’s Daily Selections
Selections: 231
Winners: 112
Strike rate: 48%
Longest winning sequence: 8
Longest losing sequence: 6
Average odds: Evens
Level stakes loss: 2.94 points
Loss with personal staking system: 23.18 points
Blue Chips
Profit +87.32
Pattern Picks
Selections 161
Winners 34
Points Staked 280.5
Profit at Rec Prices +25.57
January – Rec Prices +10.21
February – Rec Prices +15.36
Totals at end Feb +25.57
New Member Attempts
Back Bank 101.37
P/L +9.29
Balance 110.66
Lay Bank 101.90
P/L +0.95
Balance 102.85
16+ runner handicap each ways
Profit to adv prices +85.14
National Hunt Favourites who failed to finish – how do they perform next time out?
Having researched and written around 500 articles in the past few years, I am going to revisit an area I explored a few years ago. I will be looking into horses that were favourites last time out in a National Hunt race, but failed to finish the course. Hence they either fell, were unseated, pulled up, refused to race etc.
The data for this piece was collected from the beginning of 2002. All profits and losses have been calculated to £1 level stakes.
Let us firstly look at the overall statistics – so all horses in their next race that had in their most recent race started favourite, but failed to finish:
Bets 3190
Wins 506
Strike rate 15.9%
Profit / loss –£402.85
ROI –12.6%
A loss of 12.6% is not a bad starting point, especially as this could improved upon using Betfair, Betfair SP or BOG (Best Odds Guaranteed). Comparing a loss of 12% to the figure for ALL NH beaten favourites LTO is interesting, as the overall figure for beaten favs is around –14%. Therefore, beaten favourites that failed to finish LTO are slightly better investments than your ‘average’ beaten favourite.
Let us breakdown the races LTO into chases, hurdle races and bumpers for favourites that failed to complete. The figures for their next run make interesting reading:
| Race type LTO | Wins | Runs | Strike Rate% | Profit / loss | ROI% |
| Chase | 340 | 2050 | 16.6 | -£89.31 | -4.4 |
| Hurdle | 163 | 1121 | 14.5 | -£315.64 | -28.2 |
| NHF | 3 | 19 | 15.8 | +£2.10 | +11.1 |
Not surprisingly there were very few bumper favourites that failed to finish last time out. The interesting comparison is with the non-finishers in chases and hurdle races last time. Horses that failed to complete the course in a chase last time out have lost just 4.4% if backing all such runners on their next start. Last time favourites in hurdle races that failed to finish look laying potential, or at the very least eliminated for win betting purposes.
With over 2000 qualifiers from LTO chases, it seemed likely to me that we may be able to push this into profit using some other logical filters. For the rest of the article I will focusing solely on the LTO chase qualifiers as they look to have the best potential in terms of profitable angles. I decided to see starting price next time out made any difference:
| Price | Wins | Runs | Strike Rate% | Profit / loss | ROI% |
| Evens or less | 43 | 76 | 55.6 | -£6.75 | -8.9 |
| 11/10 – 2/1 | 58 | 178 | 32.6 | -£24.38 | -13.7 |
| 9/4 – 7/2 | 78 | 350 | 22.3 | -£48.20 | -13.8 |
| 4/1 – 11/2 | 62 | 396 | 15.7 | -£45.50 | -11.5 |
| 6/1 – 9/1 | 65 | 433 | 15.0 | +£104.50 | +24.1 |
| 19/2 – 16/1 | 27 | 383 | 7.0 | -£15.00 | -3.9 |
| 18/1+ | 7 | 234 | 3.0 | -£54.00 | -23.1 |
Looking at the prices, the stats seem to suggest to look for horses that are priced between 6/1 and 9/1 in their next race. In fact from 6/1 to 16/1 the results have been much better than one would expect.
The next factor I decided to look at was age:
| Age | Wins | Runs | Strike Rate | Profit / loss | ROI |
| 4 | 2 | 15 | 13.3 | -£11.47 | -76.5 |
| 5 | 29 | 119 | 24.4 | +£29.88 | +25.1 |
| 6 | 65 | 305 | 21.3 | +£40.38 | +13.2 |
| 7 | 80 | 510 | 15.7 | -£87.16 | -17.1 |
| 8 | 75 | 446 | 16.8 | +£13.90 | +3.1 |
| 9 | 47 | 325 | 14.5 | +£0.40 | +0.1 |
| 10 | 28 | 194 | 14.4 | -£19.10 | -9.9 |
| 11+ | 14 | 136 | 10.3 | -£56.14 | -41.3 |
Younger horses (aged 5 to 6) have the best strike rate and they have combined to make a profit. At the other end of the age scale, it seems best to avoid horses aged 11 or older. Their strike rate is much poorer at roughly 1 win in 10, with losses of over 40%.
Next stop for the LTO Chase runners – days off the course since that losing run when favourite:
| Days off track | Wins | Runs | Strike Rate | Profit / loss | ROI |
| 0-7 | 25 | 121 | 20.7 | -£26.31 | -21.7 |
| 8-14 | 46 | 302 | 15.2 | -£101.77 | -33.7 |
| 15-21 | 47 | 294 | 16.0 | -£47.46 | -16.1 |
| 22-49 | 107 | 596 | 18.0 | +£70.16 | +11.8 |
| 50-99 | 42 | 246 | 17.1 | +£61.81 | +25.1 |
| 100+ | 73 | 491 | 14.9 | -£45.74 | -9.3 |
This is very interesting – horses that return to the track fairly quickly (21 days or less) do quite poorly. Conversely, combining all horses off the track for more than 3 weeks would have actually yielded a profit of £86.24.
My next area of research was to look at the LTO chase splitting into more specific race types:
| LTO Race | Wins | Runs | Strike Rate | Profit / loss | ROI |
| Handicap | 202 | 1411 | 14.3 | -£110.84 | -7.9 |
| Non handicap | 138 | 639 | 21.6 | +£21.53 | +3.4 |
| Maiden chase | 3 | 33 | 9.1 | -£22.13 | -67.1 |
| Novice chase | 94 | 555 | 16.9 | -£91.07 | -16.4 |
| Graded/Listed chase | 28 | 122 | 23.0 | +£6.05 | +5.0 |
Horses that raced in Class 1 company LTO (Graded/Listed events) produced a small profit; as did ALL non handicap races. Horses that were favourite LTO and failed to finish in a Novice Chase have under-performed compared with the overall figures.
So what can be gleaned from this research? What I would say is that beaten favourites last time out that failed to finish in a chase, cannot be dismissed from calculations next time out. Using the other variables / filters has helped to pinpoint profitable areas so there should be some value when finding horses that match the ‘positives’.
For the system players out there you may want to consider this system which uses some of the positive factors noted:
Rules:
1. LTO favourite in a chase
2. Failed to finish LTO
3. Days since last run 22 to 99
4. Age 5yo to 9yo
5. Raced in Non handicap LTO
The results for this ‘system’ would have produced the following results:
Bets 218
Wins 51
Strike rate 23.4%
Profit +£56.09
ROI +25.7%
Hence a very decent return on investment, although an average of 25 qualifiers per year is likely to put many punters off.
Here are 10 year trends for three big races on Saturday.
The trends and statistics are based on the last 10 renewals. All profits and losses are quoted using £1 level stakes; ROI stands for return on investment, SR for strike rate.
1.50 Ascot – Reynoldstown Chase – 3m ½f
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites: There have been 5 winning favourites from 10. |
| Market: There were 3 winning second favourites, so 8 of the last 10 winners came from the top 2 in the market. |
| Price: Horses priced 9/2 or shorter have produced 9 of the last 10 winners. |
| LTO winners: 9 of the last 10 winners won last time out. Backing all 22 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £7.05 (ROI +32%). |
| LTO market position: 8 of the last 10 winners were either favourite or second favourite LTO. |
| Career starts: Horses with 11 career starts or less have provided 9 of the last 10 winners. Horses who have raced 3 times or less over fences (previous to this race) have won 8 of the last 10. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses priced 5/1 or bigger have produced just 1 winner from 29 qualifiers for a loss of £19.50 (ROI -67.2%). |
| Position LTO: Horses that finished 2nd or worse last time out have produced just 1 winner from 30 for a loss of £26.00 (ROI -86.7%). |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 5 year olds have produced 1 winner from 2 qualifiers (SR 50.0%); 6 year olds
have produced 4 winners from 13 qualifiers (SR 30.8%); 7 year olds have produced 5 winners from 19 qualifiers (SR 26.3%); 8 year olds plus have produced 0 winners from 18 qualifiers (SR 0%). |
Trends analysis: the Reynoldstown offers trends followers some strong positive pointers. 9 of the last 10 winners have been priced 9/2 or shorter so this is a definite starting point, with favourites given the closest scrutiny as they have won half of the races. LTO winners have an excellent record and look for horses that have had no more than 3 runs over fences as they have won 80% of the races from 55% of the total runners. In terms of age it looks best to focus on those horses aged 7 or younger.
2.45 Haydock – Totescoop6 (Rendlesham) Hurdle – 3m
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites: There have been 5 winning favourites from 10 qualifiers showing a
profit of £1.48 (ROI +14.8%). |
| Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first four LTO. |
| Favourites LTO: There have only been 6 horses that started favourite LTO but 4 of them have gone on to win this race. |
| Class LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners raced in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 contest LTO. |
| Course last time out: 8 of the last 10 winners raced LTO at either Cheltenham, Ascot or Haydock. |
| Breeding: French breds have won 6 of the races from just 20 runners although profits have been modest at £2.48 (ROI +12.2%). |
| Trainers: Francois Doumen has won the race 3 times since 2002. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Breeding: Just 2 wins from 23 for British bred runners showing losses of £12.00 (ROI -52.2%). |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 5 year olds have produced 0 winners from 6 qualifiers (SR 0%); 6 year olds have produced 2 winners from 12 qualifiers (SR 16.7%); 7 year olds have produced 4 winners from 13 qualifiers (SR 30.8%); 8 year olds have won 1 from 12 qualifiers (SR 8.3%); 9 year olds plus have won 3 from 21 qualifiers (SR 14.3%). |
Trends analysis: this is a race where the positive trends tend to dominate. The market has been a fairly good guide to this race over recent years with favourites winning 5 of the last 9 races. A decent run LTO has been a plus, as has racing in Grade 1 or 2 company LTO. French breds have a good record as does trainer Francois Doumen. In terms of age there are no clear patterns.
3.00 Ascot – Betfair Chase – 2m 5½f
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites: There have been 5 winning favourites from 10 for a profit of £1.54 (ROI +15.4%). |
| Price: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 15/2 or shorter. |
| Last run: 6 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for at least 7 weeks. |
| Course last time out: 8 of the last 10 winners raced LTO at either Cheltenham, Ascot or Kempton. |
| Trainers: the Pipe stable won the race four times between 2002 and 2006. No successes however, since David Pipe has taken over from his father. |
| LTO performance: 8 horses came into the race having failed to complete the course LTO, but 3 have gone onto win. |
| Distance LTO: Horses that raced over 3 miles or more LTO have won 5 of the renewals from just 21 runners for a profit of £5.16 (ROI +24.6%). |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses priced 8/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 23. |
| LTO Price: Horses priced 10/1 or bigger on their most recent run have provided 0 winners from 24. |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 6 and 7 year olds have produced 0 winners from 11 qualifiers (SR 0%); 8 year
olds have produced 6 winners from 17 qualifiers (SR 35.3%); 9 year olds have produced 1 winner from 11 qualifiers (SR 9.1%); 10 year olds have produced 1 winner from 14 qualifiers (SR 7.1%); 11 year olds plus have produced 2 winners from 10 qualifiers (SR 20%). |
Trends analysis: this has been a market driven race in recent years thanks to 5 winning favourites and 9 winners priced 15/2 or shorter. A recent run is not necessarily a plus as 6 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for at least 7 weeks. A LTO run at either Cheltenham, Ascot or Kempton has been a positive, while in terms of age 8 year olds have performed way above expectations.
Last day of lay trial – will move this to my full Racing Trends service. The link to join my full service is http://www.racingtrends.co.uk/join.php
Tues lays
Figaro Flyer 1.50 Southwell
Trans Sonic 3.20 Southwell
Running totals after Monday
113 winning lays out of 124 bets
Profit to BSP (after 5% commission) +58.73pts
If you have not already done so I suggest you give yourself more odds picking options and open an account with the bookmakers below.
