Over the next week I am going to try and predict horses that will trade lower “in running”. If I can accurately do this then we have plenty of scope to make money trading these animals. For this week though I am going to watch and monitor rather than trade (for obvious reasons). Anyway here are my predicions for today with reasons:

3.00 Kempton – Silver Linnet – well drawn front runner over 5f in a small field. Does have competition for the lead with one other horse but am hopeful she has too much early pace. Hence she should trade lower “in running”.

4.00 Kempton – Den’s Gift – has traded lower “in running” in his last 27 starts including 6 losing runs when trading odds-on “in running”. Is a higher price than usual today and has a inexperienced jockey so these are my slight reservations. Having said that I will be surprised if the horses does not trade lower.

5.35 Chepstow – Magic Omen – been knocking on the door and is likely to be ridden up with the pace from a good draw + trainer/jockey combination. I expect this to trade lower.

One of my favourite sprinters is running today – Barney Mc Grew in the 3.55 Newmarket. Best priced 33/1 with Stan James I am having a small each way bet. Ladbrokes go 16/1 and I agree with their price so 33/1 rates as value.

Good start to the Racing Trends Members’ message with a 12/1 winner highlighted in the positive trainer stats (Tartan Gigha). Interestingly though the Betfair SP only paid 11.3 – only 10.3/1. That is very unusual.

Trainers in form is something some punters look for and I certainly feel that this is a factor you should take into account in your horse racing betting. Tim Vaughan has been in good form with 9 wins and 5 seconds in 31 runs in the last 14 days. He runs two today – Picaroon (7.20 Bangor) and Charlie Yardbird (8.20 Bangor). Vaughan has yet to saddle a winner at the course in 2010, but overall he has a good strike rate there (27%).

There is an unusually good handicap on the sand at Lingfield today – the 4.55. Looks competitive, but I feel there is one horse that is overpriced in Makeking. He is 14/1 in a race where I feel 8/1 would be about right. Hence to me he offers some value. The key to successful betting is to gain a price that is better than the true odds of the horse in question and I think that is the case here. The reason for his price is almost certainly down to a poor last run. His record over C&D is 2 wins, 7 placed from 13 runs. So he would have rewarded each way support in 9 of his 13 runs.  His last run and the fact he may be ‘over the top’ having run alot over the winter are concerns, but the price makes up for it. There will be plenty worse each way bets this year!

Good day today – the Brighton 6.00 has just finished with Channon’s poor value forecast favourite Print being unplaced. This record continues to be woeful at this venue in handicaps.

The trade on For Life in the 3.10 Folkestone would have been successful if you arbed rather than tried to nick a free bet. He was around 10s on Betfair pre race and traded as low as 3.2 (to over £500). He led before being collared late in the race.

When looking for decent bets I often look to try and find a race with a poor value favourite – or at least a favourite I deem to be poor value! One race where we have a potential poor value favourite is the 6.00 at Brighton. Mick Channon’s runner Print won last time out and is currently favourite at 3/1. However, Channon’s record in handicaps at Brighton is woeful – just 7 wins from his last 154 runners. Of these, he has had 2 winning favourites from 12; 0 winning 2^nd favourites from 25. Admittedly this is not a strong race, but I would be happy to look elsewhere in this contest.

The 3.10 at Folkestone probably gives us our best “in running” trading / arbing option. For Life is a bigger price than I expected (thought he would be around 5/1 and not 10/1), and hence gives us decent scope to back pre race and lay off “in running” – either for a bet to nothing; or an arb to win regardless of result. He is 10/1 on Betfair currently, but also 10/1 Best odds guaranteed at William Hills, Ladbrokes and Stan James. Surely he will trade lower than 10s “in running” as he is a prominent racer drawn ideally in 2.

No all age handicap sprints today so no real ”in running” angles today. However, here are some thoughts and stats for today.

2.55 Pontefract – both Henry Cecil and Sir Michael Stoute has strike rates in excess of 30% at the course and both have runners in this race. Raqueeb for Stoute and Plato for Cecil. Priced 13/2 and 7/1 respectively. There is a solid enough looking odds on favourite in Lion Mountain but both Raqueeb and Plato offer some each way value. Which one is the question!? Of course both may finish in the first three! 

5.05 Ascot – Hail Commander is around 5/1 which looks fair value to me in a competitive looking race.

7.35 Kempton – Trainer Henry Candy has a good record with this type of horse (3yos running early season) and Vanilla Rum is his runner in this. Draw 1 is not good though, but at 10/1 he may offer some each way appeal.

Pretty poor stuff on Tuesday to be honest. The 6.05 at Nottingham may give an arbing/trading opportunity on Thoughtsofstardom but the current price of around 5.5 is a bit tight. If low draws are favoured then Style Award is well handicapped. At around 20/1 this would be fair value if at least 16 stay in.

Monday 27^th April

There looks a potential “in running” arb / trade today in the first race at Newcastle (2.10). Angle of Attack often front runs and from stall 16 (right next to the stands’ rail) he should either lead or race a clear second for a good proportion of the race. This should give traders the opportunity to assure either a free bet to nothing during the race, or a win either way with an arb. For those who are not sure what an arb is it is when you get a situation where you win regardless of result. For “in running” punters this usually happens when you back a horse pre race, and then it back at shorter odds but to bigger money “in running”.  The shame about Angle of Attack is that it is now around 11/2 when you could have got bit and pieces of 11 and 12/1 on Betfair early doors.

We have two potential front runners in the 4.10 at Newcastle in Strike Up the Band and Captain Dunne. Both will probably trade shorter “in running” even if they take each other on for the lead. However, a more conservative arb/trade is probably the order of the day.

For National Hunt fans trainer David Pipe is in cracking form with 11 wins and 8 placed runners in the last 14 days. He has just one runner today – Helen Wood in the 3.20 at Towcester.

Hopefully will add further thoughts on my blog later today.

Saturday review – Lost in Paris traded at 1.5 in running having been backed during the day – so was a really good arb as suggested. Anyone employing this idea should have made a tidy profit on the race. I won’t be on line tomorrow (Sunday) as the racing looks poor so will back on Monday.