Saturday, January 21st, 2012 at
11:01 am
1.45 Haydock – Champion Hurdle Trial (Grade 2) – 2m
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: 7 of the last 10 winners have come from the top two in the betting. |
| Price: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 7/1 or shorter. |
| Market LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners were in the top three in the betting LTO. |
| Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO. |
| Course LTO: All of the last 10 winners raced at a Grade 1 track LTO. |
| Class LTO: 4 of the last 10 winners raced in a Grade 1 event LTO from just 11 qualifiers. Backing them all would have produced a profit of £9.00 (ROI +81.8%). |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses priced 14/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 22 (only 3 have placed). |
| Running style: No runner has managed to make all the running. |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites: There have been 4 winning favourites from 10 qualifiers showing a loss of £1.20 (ROI -12%). |
| Age: 4 year olds have produced 0 winners from 1 qualifier (SR 0%); 5 year olds have produced 2 winners from 5 qualifiers (SR 40%); 6 year olds have produced 3 winners from 15 qualifiers (SR 20%); 7 year olds have produced 1 winner from 12 qualifiers (SR 8.3%); 8 year olds have provided 1 winner from 9 qualifiers (SR 11.1%), 9 & 10 year olds have provided 3 winners from 14 qualifiers (21.4%); 11 year olds plus have provided 0 winners from 7 (SR 0%). |
| Breeding: French breds have provided 4 winners from 16 (SR 25%); British breds have provided 3 winners from 21 (SR 14.3%), Irish breds have provided 3 winners from 25 (SR 12%). |
| Trainers: No trainer has managed to win the race more than once. |
Trends analysis: The market is a decent guide with 90% of the winners priced 7/1 or shorter. A run at a Grade 1 track LTO has been key with all 10 winners sharing that stat. Horses that finished in the first three LTO are worth close scrutiny as are those that were in the top three in the betting on the most recent start. In terms of age there are no clear patterns.
3.30 Haydock – Peter Marsh Chase (Grade 2 Limited handicap) – 3m
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: Third to fifth in the betting market have provided 7 winners from 33 qualifiers for a profit of £45.00 (ROI +136.4%). |
| Price: 7 of the last 10 winners were priced between 4/1 and 8/1. |
| Recent wins: All of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last five starts. |
| Days since last run: 8 of the last 10 winners had raced within the last month. |
| Course winners: 5 of the last 10 winners had previously won at Haydock. |
| LTO course: 8 of the last 10 winners raced LTO at either Haydock or Wetherby. Backing all runners would have produced 8 winners from 28 for a profit of £52.75 (ROI +188.4%). |
| Running style: 5 of the last 10 winners have led early and made most or all of the running. |
| Trainers: Venetia Williams has saddled 2 winners and a third from 5 runners. Sue Smith has saddled two winners and 2 placed from 7. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Favourites: There has been 1 winning favourite from 10 qualifiers showing a loss of £6.75 (ROI -67.5%). |
| Breeding: French breds have a poor record in the race with just 1 success from 24 runners for a loss of £17.00 (ROI -70.8%). |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 6 year olds have produced 0 winners from 1 qualifier (SR 0%); 7 year olds have produced 0 winners from 12 qualifiers (SR 0%); 8 year olds have produced 4 winners from 22 qualifiers (SR 18.2%); 9 year olds have produced 2 winners from 24 qualifiers (SR 8.3%); 10 year olds have produced 3 wins from 17 qualifiers (SR 17.6%); 11 year olds plus have produced 1 win from 13 qualifiers (SR 7.7%). |
Trends analysis: The best starting point is to look for horses that have won at least once in their last five starts as they have provided all of the last 10 winners. In terms of price, the most successful ‘bracket’ has been between 4/1 and 8/1. Two other strong positives are horses that raced at either Haydock or Wetherby last time out, and those that have raced within the month. From a negative perspective, it seems best to avoid horses that are French bred and favourites have also struggled in recent years.
Friday, December 30th, 2011 at
10:17 pm
3.05 Newbury – Grade 1 Challow Novices’ Hurdle – 2m5f
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 5 winning favourites from 11 qualifiers showing a profit of £1.58 (ROI +14.4%). |
| Market: 8 of the last 10 winners have been from the top two in the betting. |
| Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 7/1 or shorter. |
| Market LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners were favourite LTO. |
| Position LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners won LTO. |
| Course LTO: 5 of the last 10 winners raced at Cheltenham LTO (from only 17 qualifiers). |
| Trainers: Jonjo O’Neill has saddled 3 winners; 2 wins a piece for Paul Nicholls and Nick Williams. |
| Jockeys: 4 wins from 6 rides for Tony Mc Coy. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Market: Horses 5th or lower in the betting market have provided 0 winners from 36. |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 4 year olds have produced 2 winners from 20 qualifiers (SR 10%); 5 year olds have produced 6 winners from 31 qualifiers (SR 19.4%); 7 year olds plus have won 2 from 26 qualifiers (7.7%). |
Trends analysis: A race where positive trends are by far the strongest. Favourites have a decent record, and the market has been a good guide with all 10 winners being priced 7/1 or shorter. LTO market position has been an excellent indicator with 9 of the last 10 winners being favourite on their most recent start. To put that in perspective LTO favourites have provided 905 of the winners from only 43% of the total runners. Jonjo O’Neill has a good record in the race, as does champion jockey Ttony Mc Coy. In terms of age, 5 year olds seem to hold the edge.
Thursday, December 8th, 2011 at
10:34 am
2.00 Huntingdon – Peterborough Chase – 2 miles 4f (Grade 2)
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 5 winning favourites (including joints) from 11. |
| Market: 9 of the last 10 winners came from the top three in the betting. Indeed, 16 of the last 17 winners matched that stat. |
| Price: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 5/1 or shorter. |
| Position LTO: Horses that won LTO have provided 5 of the last 10 winners. Backing all 13 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £13.76 (ROI +105.8%). |
| Recent wins: 7 of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last four starts (that stretches to 14 out of last 17). |
| Running style: 6 wins from 10 for horses that have taken the early lead – worth noting if you play “in running”. |
| Trainers: Henrietta Knight has a remarkable record with 5 wins from 7 runners. Going back to 1998 this becomes 8 wins from 10. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses priced 11/2 or bigger have produced just 1 winner from 38 runners for a loss of £25.00 (ROI -65.8%). |
| Running style: Hold up horses have been successful just once from 22 so in play punters be wary. |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 5/6 year olds have won 3 races from 9 qualifiers (SR 33.3%); 7 year olds have won 3 races from 11 qualifiers (SR 27.3%); 8 year olds have won 1 race from 21 qualifiers (SR 4.8%); 9 year olds and older have won 3 races from 24 qualifiers (SR 12.5%). |
Trends analysis: favourites have a solid record, and it is best to concentrate on horses priced 5/1 or shorter as they have provided 9 of the last 10 winners (16 of last 17). Next stop is to see if trainer Henrietta Knight has a runner as her 5 wins from 7 is rather eye-catching! Last time out winners demand respect, while in terms of age there has been a mix of winners, with 5 and 6 year olds doing well from a handful of runners.
Saturday, November 19th, 2011 at
10:25 am
2.45 Ascot – Coral Ascot Hurdle 2m 3½f (Grade 2)
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites (inc joints): There have been 6 winning favourites from 12 and backing all selections would have produced a profit of £2.88 (ROI +24%). |
| Market: 9 of the last 10 winners have come from the top two of the betting. |
| Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 7/2 or shorter. Backing all 25 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £6.46 (ROI +25.8%). |
| Market LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners were priced 11/2 or shorter LTO. |
| Position LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners won LTO (from only 17 runners). |
| Trainers: 2 wins a piece for Dessie Hughes, Nicky Henderson and Francois Doumen. |
| Course winners: 4 wins and 3 placed runs from 15 runs for previous course winners. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses priced 4/1 or bigger have produced 0 winners from 40 runners. |
| Breeding: Just 1 win from 15 for British bred runners. |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 4 year olds have produced 2 winners from 5 qualifiers (SR 40%); 5 year olds have produced 1 winner from 11 qualifiers (SR 9.1%); 6 year olds have produced 2 winners from 16 qualifiers (SR 12.5%); 7 year olds have produced 2 wins from 14 (SR 14.3%); 8 year olds plus have produced 3 wins from 19 (SR 15.8%). |
Trends analysis: this race has an impressive roll of honour with winners including Dawn Run, Gaye Brief, Morley Street, Baracouda and Hardy Eustace. Favourites have a good record and should be the first port of call, with second favourites also respected. A previous course win is a plus, while age wise, there is a wide age-range in terms of winners and hence there seems no edge to found there. LTO winners have done well so they require close scrutiny too.
3.20 Ascot – Carey Group Handicap Chase 2m 1f (Grade 2)
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites: There have been 5 winning favourites from 10 producing a profit of £4.92 (ROI +49.2%). |
| Market: 9 of the last 10 winners have come from the top four of the betting. |
| Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 8/1 or shorter. |
| Days since last run: 7 of the last 10 winners had run within the last 3 weeks. |
| Weight rank: 8 of the last 10 winners have come from the top 4 of the weights. |
| Market LTO: 5 of the last 10 winners were favourites LTO. |
| Price LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 15/2 or shorter LTO. |
| Position LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners came first or second LTO. |
| Trainers: 2 wins for Paul Nicholls (from 6 runners) and 2 wins for Nicky Henderson (from 5 runners). |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses priced 17/2 or bigger have produced 0 winners from 28 runners. |
| Headgear: 0 wins from 15 for horses wearing any type of headgear. |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 5 year olds have produced 1 winner from 4 qualifiers (SR 25%); 6 year olds have produced 4 winners from 13 qualifiers (SR 30.8%); 7 year olds have produced 2 winners from 16 qualifiers (SR 12.5%); 8 year olds have produced 3 wins from 16 (SR 18.8%); 9 year olds plus have produced 0 wins from 23 (SR 0%). |
Trends analysis: this race is dominated by positive stats. Favourites have a decent record especially considering it is a handicap. Indeed in general the market has got it right with all of the winners being priced 8/1 or shorter. In terms of weight, the top 4 weights have had a clear edge, and if you restrict these higher weighted runners to only those priced 8/1 or shorter you would have pinpointed 8 winners from a shortlist of just 32. In terms of age it looks best to avoid horses aged 9 or older.
Saturday, November 12th, 2011 at
10:49 am
Paddy Power trends for 4 races
Saturday 1.20 – JCB Triumph Novices’ hurdle (Grade 2) – 2m½f
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: 7 of the last 10 winners have come from the top 2 in the betting (4 wins for favourites). |
| Price: Horses priced 11/2 or shorter have won 8 of the last 10 races. |
| Price LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 8/1 or shorter LTO. |
| Position LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners won LTO. |
| Sires: The sire Kalanisi has had 4 runners of which 2 have won and 1 other has
placed. |
| Trainers: 2 wins a piece for Alan King and Paul Nicholls. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Sex of horse: 15 fillies have taken part and none have won. |
| Price: Horses priced 11/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 65. |
| Breeding: British bred runners have provided just 1 winner from 32 runners for a loss of £26.50 (ROI -82.8%). |
GENERAL STATS
| Breeding: Irish bred runners have won 50% of the races from 34% of the total runners. |
Trends analysis: this has been a market dominated race with the top 2 in the betting dominating. Indeed it seems that you can draw a line through around half the runners as 10/1 has been the cut-off point (all 10 winners priced 10/1 or shorter). LTO winners have a solid record and trainers Alan King and Paul Nicholls should be respected. In terms of negatives, both British bred runners and fillies look worth avoiding.
Saturday 2.35 – Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase (Grade 3) – 2m4½ f
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites: 4 of the last 10 winners have been favourite and backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £9.25 (ROI +92.5%). |
| Price: Horses priced between 12/1 and 20/1 have provided 4 winners. |
| Market LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners were favourite or second favourite LTO. |
| Price LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 13/2 or shorter LTO. |
| Position LTO: 5 of the last 10 winners won LTO. |
| Trainers: 4 wins for the Pipe stable, but none since David took over from his father. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Course LTO: Horses that raced at Aintree LTO have provided just 1 winner from 31 for a loss of £25.50 (ROI -82.3%). |
| Handicap LTO: Horses that raced in a handicap LTO have provided 3 winners from 116 for a loss of £91.75 (ROI -79.1%). |
| Breeding: British bred runners have provided 0 winners from 37. |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 5 year olds have produced 0 winners from 11 qualifiers (SR 0%); 6 year olds have produced 2 winners from 27 qualifiers (SR 7.4%); 7 year olds have produced 5 winners from 42 qualifiers (SR 11.9%); 8 year olds have provided 2 winners from 40 qualifiers (SR 5%); 9 year olds plus have provided 1 winner from 39 qualifiers (SR 2.6%). |
Trends analysis: favourites have a good record, but also so do runners priced 12/1 to 20/1. A better market to take note of is the LTO market for each runner as 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 13/2 or shorter on their most recent start. LTO winners have a fairly good record, while runners that have poor records include horses aged 9 and older, British bred runners and horses that raced in a handicap LTO.
Sunday 1.10 – Independent Newspaper Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) – 2 miles
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites: There have been 5 winning favourites from 10 qualifiers showing a small profit of 81 pence. |
| Market: 8 of the last 10 winners came from the top two in the market. |
| Days since last run: 9 of the last 10 winners had raced within the last 5 weeks (35 days). |
| Position LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners won last time out. |
| Market LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners were favourites on their most recent start. Backing all such runners would have produced a profit of £8.81 (ROI +44.1%). |
| Price: Horses priced 100/30 or shorter LTO have provided 8 of last 10 winners. |
| Price LTO: Horses priced 9/4 or shorter LTO have provided 9 of the last 10 winners. |
| Running style: 8 of the last 10 runners have either led early or raced close to the pace. |
| Trainers: Paul Nicholls has had 5 winners from 12 runners. |
| Breeding: Only 4 German bred horses have contested the race but all 4 have won! |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses priced 11/1 or bigger have produced 0 winners from 19 runners. |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 4 year olds have produced 2 winners from 8 qualifiers (SR 25%); 5 year olds have produced 2 winners from 14 qualifiers (SR 14.3%); 6 year olds have produced 5 winners from 16 qualifiers (SR 31.3%); 7 year olds plus have provided 1 winner from 22 qualifiers (SR 4.5%). |
Trends analysis: A good starting point is to simply focus on the top two in the betting who have provided 80% of the winners. It is also worthwhile looking at the market of their last run as horses that were priced 9/4 or shorter LTO have an excellent record. Last time out winners have performed well, while for ‘in running’ punters it has been a big advantage to race up with the pace. Trainer wise, Paul Nicholls has an excellent record in the race with 5 wins including the last 3 renewals. In terms of age 6yos have done well, while 7yos and older have not.
Sunday 2.20 – The Greatwood Handicap Hurdle Race (Grade 3) – 2m ½f
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: 7 of the last 10 winners have come from the top 2 in the betting. 2nd favourites have provided of those winners for a profit of £16.00 (ROI +177.8%). |
| Price: Horses priced 9/1 or shorter have provided 9 of the last 10 winners. |
| Market position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners were in the top 3 of the betting LTO. |
| Price LTO: Horses priced 9/2 or shorter last time out have provided 8 of the last 10 winners. |
| Age: 5 year olds have a good record with 6 wins from 47 qualifiers for a profit of £12.70 (ROI +27%). |
| Weight rank: The top weight or joint top weight has won the race 4 times from just 12 runners. |
| Trainers: 3 wins for the Phillip Hobbs stable. |
| Running style: 7 of the 10 winners were “held up” off the pace. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Position LTO: Horses who finished 6th or worse LTO have provided 0 winners from 31. |
| Price: Horses priced 10/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 87. |
| Age: 4 year olds have registered 1 win from 26 runners; 8 year olds plus have produced just 1 winner from 23 runners. |
| Conditional Jockeys: 0 wins from 32 for horses ridden by conditional jockeys. |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 3 winning favourites (including joints) from 11 producing a small loss of £2.09. |
Trends analysis: This tends to be a market dominated race with 7 of the last 10 winners being from the top two of the betting, and just 1 winner from 87 for horses priced in double figures. Top weights have won 40% of the races which is unusual for a competitive handicap, especially considering the average field size has been 13. In terms of age 5 year olds have done particularly well. For “in running” punters hold up horses have performed best.
Friday, September 30th, 2011 at
6:52 pm
2.05 Ascot – Cornwallis Stakes – 5f (Group 3) 2yo
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: The top five in the betting have provided all 10 winners. |
| Price: All of the winners have been priced 12/1 or shorter. |
| Days since last run: Horses off the track for between 22 and 29 days have provided 6 of the last 10 winners. |
| Position LTO: 5 of the last 10 winners won LTO. Backing all 27 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £14.25 (ROI +52.8%). |
| Market position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners were in the top 3 of the betting LTO. |
| Distance LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners raced over 5f LTO. |
| Running style: 9 of the last 10 winners raced up with or close to the pace. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses priced 14/1 or bigger have produced 0 winners from 64. |
| Days since last run: Horses off the track for 21 days or less have provided just 1 winner from 50 runners for a loss of £37.00 (ROI -74%). |
| Handicaps LTO: Horses that raced in a handicap LTO have provided 0 winners from 20. |
| Beaten distance LTO: Horses that were beaten by 5 or more lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 40. |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites: 2 wins from 10 for a loss of £1.75 (ROI -17.5%). |
| Sex of horse: Male runners have provided 6 winners from 82 (SR 7.3%); females have won 4 races from 46 (SR 8.7%). |
Trends analysis: This has essentially been a market driven race with all of the winners from the top 5 in the betting, and no winners from 64 runners for horses priced 14/1 or bigger. Other positives include a run over 5f LTO, a position in the top 3 in the betting LTO and time off the track of between 22 and 29 days. In terms of negatives, horses that were beaten by 5 or more lengths LTO have a poor record as do horses that raced in a handicap LTO.
2.40 Ascot – Cumberland Lodge – 1m4f (Group 3) 3yo+
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites: 7 wins from 10 for a profit of £6.63 (ROI +66.3%). |
| Market: All 10 winners have come from the top 2 in the betting. |
| Price: Horses priced 7/2 or shorter have provided all of the last 10 winners. |
| Position LTO: Horses that finished won LTO have provided 7 of the last 10 winners. |
| Days since last run: 7 of the last 10 winners had last raced between 15 and 22 days ago. |
| Breeding: 7 wins from 31 for British bred runners; 3 wins from 8 for USA bred runners. |
| Trainers: Marcus Tregoning has won the race 5 times from just 6 runners! |
| Course LTO: Only 12 horses raced at Doncaster LTO but 5 have come on to win here. |
| Price LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 5/1 or shorter LTO. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Breeding: 0 wins from 25 for Irish bred runners. |
| Market: 0 wins from 49 for horses 3rd or bigger in the betting market. |
| Beaten distance LTO: Horses that were beaten by 2 or more lengths LTO have provided just 1 winner from 34 for a loss of £30.00 (ROI -88.2%). |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 3yos have provided 3 winners from 14 (SR 21.4%); 4yos have provided 5 winners from 29 (SR 17.2%); 5yos+ have provided 2 winners from 28 (SR 7.1%). |
Trends analysis: In recent years this race has been totally dominated by the top two in the betting, with favourites having an outstanding record. LTO winners are also worth noting having won 70% of the races from just 24% of the total runners. Trainer Marcus Tregoning clearly targets this race as he has saddled the winner an amazing 5 times from only 6 runners. In terms of breeding, British and American bred runners have won all the races between them, with Irish bred runners really struggling. In terms of age, 3 and 4yos definitely have the edge over their older rivals.
3.15 Ascot – Bengough Stakes – 6f (Group 3) 3yo+
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Price: 8 of the last 10 winners have been priced between 6/1 and 16/1. |
| LTO winners: 4 of the last 10 winners won LTO. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a small profit of £3.50 (ROI +11.3%). |
| LTO price: 7 of the last 10 winners were priced 8/1 or shorter LTO. |
| Trainers: 2 wins a piece for Chris Wall and Saeed Bin Suroor. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 13 for a loss of £4.00 (ROI -30.8%). |
| Price: 0 wins from 61 for horses priced 20/1 or bigger. |
| Days since last run: Horses off the track for 21 days or less have provided 3 winners but from 88 runners for a loss of £59.00 (ROI -59%). |
| Position LTO: 32 runners finished 2nd or 3rd LTO and none have gone on to win here. |
| Handicaps LTO: Horses that raced in a handicap LTO have provided just 1 winner from 40 qualifiers for a loss of £23.00 (ROI -57.5%). |
| Course LTO: Horses that ran at Newmarket LTO have provided 0 winners from 23. Horses coming from Ascot LTO have produced 2 winners, but from 49 qualifiers. |
| Headgear: Horses wearing any type of headgear (blinkers, tongue tie, cheekpieces etc) have provided just 1 winner from 34 for a loss of £27.00 (ROI -79.4%). |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 3yos have provided 2 winners from 37 (SR 5.4%); 4yos have provided 4 winners from 39 (SR 10.3%); 5yos have provided 2 winners from 34 (SR 5.9%); 6yos have provided 2 winners from 21 (SR 9.5%); 7yos+ have provided 0 winners from 20 (SR 0%). |
| Sex of horse: Male runners have provided 8 winners from 132 (SR 6.1%); females have won 2 races from 19 (SR 10.5%). |
Trends analysis: It should be noted that this race has slightly stronger negative trends than positive ones. Horses wearing headgear have a poor record as do runners that raced at either Ascot or Newmarket LTO. In addition horses returning to the track within 3 weeks have a below average record. It terms of price it looks best to focus on prices between 6/1 and 16/1 as they have provided 80% of the winners from around 45% of the total runners. Age wise there are no clear trends although horses aged 7 or older look worth avoiding.
Saturday, September 24th, 2011 at
12:23 pm
2.35 Newmarket – Cheveley Park Stakes – 6f (Group 1) 2yo fillies
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 5 wins from 11 for a profit of £7.03 (ROI +63.9%). |
| Market: The top 3 in the betting have provided 9 of the last 10 winners. |
| Price: 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 11/2 or shorter. |
| LTO winners: Horses that won last time out have produced 8 of the 10 winners with the other 2 winners having finished 2nd. |
| Price LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 7/1 or shorter LTO. |
| Running style: 9 of the last 10 winners have been ridden close to or up with the pace. |
| Trainers: Brian Meehan has saddled 2 winners and 2 placed horses from 6. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses priced 14/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 49. |
| Position LTO: Horses finishing third or worse last time out have produced 0 winners from 36. |
| Trainers: 0 wins from 19 for Irish trained horses. |
| LTO favourites: There have been 19 runners that have come into this race having been beaten as favourites last time out and all have lost. |
GENERAL STATS
| Distance LTO: Horses that raced over 6f LTO have provided 9 of the last 10 winners, but nearly 80% of the total runners had run over 6f LTO. |
Trends analysis: An interesting set of statistics in a race that has been dominated by the top 3 in the betting with favourites having a very good recent record. LTO winners have dominated the race somewhat unsurprisingly perhaps, and it seems you can dismiss any runner that failed to finish in the first two on their latest start. Beaten favourites and Irish runners also look best avoided.
3.10 Newmarket – Sun Chariot Stakes 1 mile (Group 1) – 3yo+ (fillies / mares only)
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Price: 6 of the last 10 winners were priced between 7/1 and 16/1. Backing all 36 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £38.00 (ROI +105.6%). |
| Position LTO: All of the last 10 winners finished in the first four on their most recent start. |
| Race type LTO: Horses raced in raced in Group 3 or Listed company LTO have provided 6 winners from 42 for a profit of £26.63 (ROI +63.4%). |
| Time off track: 5 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for at least 9 weeks. |
| Running style: 4 wins for the horses that has taken the early lead. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Favourites: There have been 2 winning favourites from 10 showing a loss of £4.13 (ROI -41.3%). |
| LTO beaten distance: Horses beaten 3 or more lengths on their most recent start have produced just 1 winner from 36 qualifiers. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a loss of £30.5 (ROI –84.7%). |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 3yos have won 7 races from 55 runners (SR 12.7%); 4yos have won
2 races from 25 runners (SR 8.0%); 5yos and older have won 1 race from 14 (SR 7.1%). |
| Breeding: 3 wins from 12 for US bred runners (albeit 2 wins for the same horse). |
Trends analysis: There have been 0 winners priced 20/1 or bigger, but the value has lain with slightly bigger priced – those priced 7/1 to 16/1. Favourites have a very moderate record despite winning the race last year. A decent run LTO looks important with all 10 winners having finished in the first four LTO. A run at Group 3 or Listed level seems a plus as I would suspect some of the runners are under-estimated. In terms of age, 3yos provide a good majority of the runners, but they do seem to hold a slight edge over their older compatriots.
Saturday, September 17th, 2011 at
10:16 am
2.15 Ayr Silver Cup Handicap – 6f (class 2) 3yo+
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: The top four in the betting have provided 6 of the last 10 winners. |
| Price: 7 of the last 10 winners have been priced 12/1 or bigger. |
| Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners finished the first five LTO. |
| Price LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 9/1 or shorter LTO. |
| Market LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners came from the top three in the betting LTO (they have produced 80% of the winners from just 31% of the total runners). |
| Draw: 5 of the last 10 winners have come from the bottom 7 stalls. |
| Trainers: Dandy Nicholls has been successful in the race 3 times (NB also won the Gold Cup 5 times). |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten 5 or more lengths LTO have provided just 1 winner from 101 qualifiers for a loss of £88.00 (ROI -87.1%). |
| Sex of horse: Fillies and mares have had 26 runners and all have lost. |
| Headgear: Horses wearing either blinkers, visors or cheekpieces have produced 0 winners from 53. |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 11 for a profit of £1.75 (ROI +15.9%). |
| Age: 3yos have provided 3 winners from 40 runners (SR 7.5%); 4yos have provided 3 winners from 77 (SR 3.9%); 5yos have provided 4 winners from 58 (SR 6.9%); 6yos plus have provided 0 winners from 88 (SR 0%). |
Trends analysis: Mixed messages from the market as you would expect from a race that averages 26 runners a year. Looking at the LTO market is actually the best starting point – both the top 3 in the betting LTO and horses 9/1 or less LTO have excellent records scoring twice as often as they statistically should. Also there is a strong negative stat to use in relation to distance beaten LTO – horses beaten 5 lengths or more have a dreadful record and it looks best to put a line through these runners. Dandy Nicholls usually saddles several runners and he deserves respect considering his record not just in this race but in the Gold Cup as well.
2.30 Newbury – Mill Reef Stakes – 6f (Group 2) 2yo
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: 8 of the last 10 winners came from the top three in the betting (all 10 came from the top 5). |
| Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 10/1 or shorter. |
| Course LTO: Horses that raced at Doncaster LTO have provided 4 winners from 18 runners for a profit of £10.25 (ROI +56.9%). |
| Market LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners came from the top three in the betting LTO. |
| Price LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 9/1 or shorter LTO. |
| Days since last run: Horses that have been off the track for 8 or more weeks have provided 4 winners from just 8 runners. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses priced 11/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 38. |
| Race class LTO: Horses that raced in class 2 company or lower LTO have provided just 2 winners from 38 qualifiers for a loss of £24.52 (ROI -64.5%). |
| Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten 4 or more lengths LTO have provided just 1 winner from 23 for a loss of £19.75 (ROI -85.9%). |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites: 3 wins from 10 for a profit of 98 pence. |
| Trainers: Richard Hannon has won the race twice from 10 runners. |
| Group race LTO: 6 of the 10 winners raced in a Group race LTO – they have provided 60% of the winners from 43% of the total runners. |
Trends analysis: This race has tended to favour the more fancied runners with no winner priced over 10/1. Horses that ran at Doncaster LTO have a good record as do runners coming back off a long break of 8 weeks or more. The negatives will help you narrow down your shortlist further so it looks best to avoid horses that raced LTO in class 2 or lower, and those that were beaten by 4 lengths or more LTO.
2.45 Ayr – Firth of Clyde – 6f (Group 3) 2yo fillies
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: The top four in the betting have provided 7 of the last 10 winners. |
| Price: 4 of the last 10 winners were priced 11/1 or bigger. |
| Position LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners finished the first four LTO (4 won; 7 finished in first three). |
| LTO favourite: Horses that were favourite LTO have provided 5 winners from 23 qualifiers for a profit of £48.00 (ROI +208.7%). |
| Class LTO: Horses that raced in class 2 or lower LTO have provided 7 of the last 10 winners for a profit of £32.25. Indeed, focusing on those qualifiers who finished in the first four LTO they would have produced an even bigger profit of £44.25 (ROI +102.9%). |
| Days since last run: Horses that have raced within the last month have provided all of the last 10 winners. |
| Price LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 7/1 or shorter LTO. |
| Running style: 8 of the last 10 winners raced close to the pace from the outset. |
| Trainers: Bryan Smart has saddled 2 winners from just 3 runners. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten 6 or more lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 23. |
| Position LTO: Horses that finished 5th or worse LTO have provided just 1 winner from 36 qualifiers for a loss of £24.00 (ROI -66.7%). |
| LTO distance: Horses that over 5 furlongs LTO have provided 0 winners from 26. |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites: 3 wins from 10 for a small loss of 75 pence. |
Trends analysis: The best starting point is to focus on horses that have raced within the last month and finished in the first four. From there look for any runner that raced in class 2 company or lower LTO and/or were priced 7/1 on their previous start. The market has given mixed messages with a fair return for fancied runners, but also 4 double figure priced winners. In terms of negatives it seems best to avoid horses that were beaten 6 lengths or more LTO and those that ran over 5 furlongs LTO.
Friday, September 9th, 2011 at
10:18 am
1.25 Doncaster – Flying Childers – 5f (Group 2) 2yo
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites: 4 wins from 10 for a profit of £2.33 (ROI +23.3%). |
| Market: All of the last 10 winners came from the top 5 of the betting. |
| Price: All of the last 10 winners have been priced 11/1 or shorter. |
| Price: 6 of the last 10 winners have been priced between 4/1 and 11/1. Backing all 61 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £15.00 (ROI +44.1%). |
| LTO market: 8 of the last 10 winners were in the top 3 in the betting LTO. |
| LTO course: All of the last 10 winners raced at a Grade 1 track LTO. |
| Jockeys: Frankie Dettori has had 3 wins from 7 rides. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses priced 12/1 or bigger have produced 0 winners from 63. |
| Maidens: 14 maidens have contested the race but they have provided 0 winners and just 1 placed runner. |
| LTO class: Horses that raced in class 3 or lower LTO have provided 0 winners from 28. |
| Career starts: Horses with 7 or more career starts have provided just 1 winner from 27 for a loss of £18.00 (ROI -66.7%). |
| Beaten distance LTO: Horses that were beaten by more than 5 lengths LTO have provided just 1 winner from 22. |
GENERAL STATS
| Position LTO: Horses that won LTO have a won 5 of the 10 races but backing them would have produced a loss of £9.42 (ROI -25.5%). |
| Sex: Colts / geldings have won 5 races from 68 qualifiers (SR 7.4%); fillies have won 5 from 45 (SR 11.1%). |
Trends analysis: The best starting point is to focus on the top five of the betting as they have provided all of the winners. Pay special attention to horses that raced at a Grade 1 track last time as again they have provided all of the winners. In terms of negatives it looks best to avoid maidens, horses that raced in class 3 or lower LTO, and any horse that has had 7 or more career starts.
2.25 Doncaster – Doncaster Cup – 2 miles 2f (Group 2) 3yo+
There was dead heat in 2004 – hence there were effectively 16 winners. It should also been noted that this race was upgraded from Group 3 status in 2003 to a Group 2.
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Position LTO: Horses that won LTO have a good record with 5 wins from 15 qualifiers for a profit of £13.85 (ROI +92.3%). |
| Market: 9 of the 11 winners came from the top four in the betting. |
| Market: 2nd favourites have done well with 4 wins and a profit of £3.75 (ROI +31.3%). |
| Price: 9 of the 11 winners were priced 15/2 or shorter. |
| Price LTO: 10 of the 11 winners were priced 13/2 or shorter LTO. |
| Market LTO: All of the 11 winners were from the top 4 in the betting LTO. |
| Course LTO: 7 of the last 11 winners ran at York LTO – all of them ran in the Lonsdale Cup. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 10 for a loss of £5.03 (ROI -50.3%). |
| Price: Horses priced 16/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 20. |
| Distance LTO: Horses that raced over 1m 6f or shorter LTO have provided 0 winners from 20. |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 3yos have provided 1 winner from 6 runners (SR 16.7%); 4yos have provided 3 winners from 19 (SR 15.8%), 5yos have provided 2 winners from 21 (SR 9.5%); 6yos have provided 1 winner from 17 (SR 5.9%); 7yos+ have provided 4 winners from 18 (SR 22.2%). |
Trends analysis: Last time out winners have a very good record and require close scrutiny. Although favourites have a relatively poor record, the market tends to get this race right, while LTO market influences are important as well. Horses that ran in the Lonsdale Cup LTO at York have a good record too. In terms of age, no major biases although horses 7 years old and older have done surprisingly well.
Saturday, September 3rd, 2011 at
11:25 am
2.30 Haydock – Old Borough Cup – 1m 6f (class 2 – heritage handicap)
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 5 wins from 12 for a profit of £13.50 (ROI +112.5%). |
| Position LTO: All 10 winners finished in the first four LTO. |
| Recent form: Horses that have won at least one of their last 6 races have provided 9 of the 10 winners. |
| Days since last run: 7 of the 10 winners had their last run between 14 and 21 days prior to this race. |
| LTO Market rank: Horses that were favourite or second favourite LTO have provided 6 of the 10 winners. |
| Trainers: Mark Johnston provided the winner in 2003, 2006 and 2009 and he has had 4 other placed runners. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Market: Horses 7th or bigger in the betting have provided 1 winner from 92 qualifiers for a loss of £66.00 (ROI -71.7%). |
| Price: Horses priced 12/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 116 qualifiers for a loss of £90.00 (ROI -77.6%). |
| Beaten distance LTO: Horses that were beaten by more than 5 lengths LTO have provided just 1 winner from 78 for a loss of £74.50 (ROI – 95.5%). |
| Position LTO: Horses that finished 5th or worse LTO have provided 0 winners from 80 qualifiers. |
| Distance LTO: Horses that raced over 2 miles or more LTO have provided 0 winners from 39. |
| Headgear: Horses wearing any type of headgear have provided 0 winners from 26. |
GENERAL STATS
| Weight: Horses from the top 7 of the weights have won 7 races from 75 runners (SR 9.3%); horses 8th or lower in the weights have won 3 races from 90 runners (SR 3.3%). |
| Age: 3 year olds have provided 5 winners from 32 qualifiers (SR 15.6%); 4 year olds have provided 3 winners from 59 qualifiers (SR 5.1%); 5 year olds have provided 2 winners from 39 (SR 5.1%); 6 year olds plus have provided 0 winners from 35 qualifiers (SR 0%). |
| Trends analysis: Favourites have enjoyed a very good record and generally it has been best to focus on the shorter priced runners (less than 12/1). 3 year olds have an excellent record as do horses that last raced between 2 or 3 weeks previously. Also horses that finished in the first four LTO have provided all of the 10 winners. In terms of age, horses aged 6 and older look worth avoiding, while the weight stats favour higher weights over lower ones. Finally, Mark Johnston with 3 wins and 4 placed efforts is a trainer to note. |
3.00 Haydock Be Friendly handicap – 5f (class 2 handicap)
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Price: 6 of the last 10 winners were priced 14/1 or bigger. |
| Days since last run: All 10 winners had run within the last 3 weeks, with 6 winners having raced within last 10 days. |
| Course LTO: Horses that raced at York LTO have provided 5 winners from 40 for a profit of £58.00 (ROI +145%). |
| Breeding: 9 of the last 10 winners were British bred. |
| Position LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners finished 6th or worse LTO. |
| Price LTO: Horses priced 25/1 or bigger LTO have provided 5 winners for a profit of £79.00 (ROI +219.4%). |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Favourites (inc. joints): Favourites (inc. joints) have provided just 1 winner from 13 runners for a loss of £9.00 (ROI -69.2%). |
| Market: The top three in the betting (inc. joints) have provided just 2 winners from 33 for a loss of £21.00 (ROI -63.6%). |
| Class LTO: Horses that raced in a class 3 or lower event LTO have provided just 1 winner from 72 for a loss of £55.00 (ROI -76.4%). |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 3 year olds have provided 1 winner from 19 qualifiers (SR 5.3%); 4 year olds have provided 2 winners from 38 qualifiers (SR 5.3%); 5 year olds have provided 2 winners from 41 (SR 4.9%); 6 year olds have provided 2 winners from 26 qualifiers (SR 7.7%), 7 year olds plus have provided 3 winners from 37 (SR 8.1%). |
| Sex: Fillies/mares have won 3 races from 22 qualifiers (SR 13.6%); colts/geldings have won 7 races from 139 (SR 5%). |
| Trends analysis: This has been a race where the market has not been a good guide with 60% of the winners priced 14/1 or bigger. Last time out form seems fairly irrelevant also with 70% of the winners finishing 6th or worse on their most recent start. British bred runners have done well as have horses that raced at York LTO. In terms of age, there seems to be little in it. |
3.35 Haydock – Betfred Sprint – 6f (Group 1)
POSITIVE TRENDS
| LTO run: Horses that won LTO or were beaten by no more than 3 lengths LTO have provided 8 of the last 10 winners. |
| Position LTO: Horses that finished 1st or 2nd LTO have won 7 of the last 10 races. |
| Market: 6 of the last 10 winners came from runners that were third to sixth in the betting (inc. joints). Backing all 46 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £22.50 (ROI +48.9%). |
| Price: 9 of the last 10 winners have been priced 14/1 or lower. Indeed 6 of the winners were priced between 9/1 and 14/1. |
| Market position LTO: Horses that were in the top 3 of the betting LTO have provided 7 of the last 10 winners. |
| Recent form: Horses that have won at least one of their last six races have provided all of the 10 winners. |
| Running style: 7 of the last 10 winners have won from being held up off the pace. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses priced 16/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 76 qualifiers for a loss of £50.00 (ROI -65.8%). |
| Position LTO: Horses that finished 3rd or worse LTO have provided 3 winners, but from 90 qualifiers for a loss of £41.00 (ROI -45.6%). |
| Price LTO: Horses priced 14/1 or bigger LTO have provided 0 winners from 41. |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites: 2 wins from 10 for a loss of £1.75 (ROI -17.5%). |
| Sex: Fillies/mares have won 2 races from 19 qualifiers (SR 10.5%); colts/geldings have won 8 races from 120 (SR 6.7%). |
| Age: 3 year olds have provided 3 winners from 34 qualifiers (SR 8.8%); 4 year olds have provided 2 winners from 42 qualifiers (SR 4.8%); 5 year olds have provided 3 winners from 29 (SR 10.3%); 6 year olds plus have provided 2 winners from 34 qualifiers (SR 5.9%). |
| Trends analysis: This has been a fairly good race for trends’ followers over the past 15 years. Good recent form is important – at least one win in the last six runs has been a must. In addition to this it has been a positive if the horse had finished 1st or 2nd LTO. The race is essentially market driven, with outsiders priced 16/1 or more really struggling. The most successful price bracket has been between 9/1 and 14/1. In terms of age there seems little in it. For in running punters it is a race that has favoured hold up horses. |
