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Archive for January, 2012

Haydock 10 year trends – Saturday

Saturday, January 21st, 2012 at 11:01 am  
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1.45 Haydock – Champion Hurdle Trial (Grade 2) – 2m

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 7 of the last 10 winners have come from the top two in the betting.
Price: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 7/1 or shorter.
Market LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners were in the top three in the betting LTO.
Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO.
Course LTO: All of the last 10 winners raced at a Grade 1 track LTO.
Class LTO: 4 of the last 10 winners raced in a Grade 1 event LTO from just 11 qualifiers. Backing them all would have produced a profit of £9.00 (ROI +81.8%).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 14/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 22 (only 3 have placed).
Running style: No runner has managed to make all the running.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites: There have been 4 winning favourites from 10 qualifiers showing a loss of £1.20 (ROI -12%).
Age: 4 year olds have produced 0 winners from 1 qualifier (SR 0%); 5 year olds have produced 2 winners from 5 qualifiers (SR 40%); 6 year olds have produced 3 winners from 15 qualifiers (SR 20%); 7 year olds have produced 1 winner from 12 qualifiers (SR 8.3%); 8 year olds have provided 1 winner from 9 qualifiers (SR 11.1%), 9 & 10 year olds have provided 3 winners from 14 qualifiers (21.4%); 11 year olds plus have provided 0 winners from 7 (SR 0%).
Breeding: French breds have provided 4 winners from 16 (SR 25%); British breds have provided 3 winners from 21 (SR 14.3%), Irish breds have provided 3 winners from 25 (SR 12%).
Trainers: No trainer has managed to win the race more than once.

Trends analysis: The market is a decent guide with 90% of the winners priced 7/1 or shorter. A run at a Grade 1 track LTO has been key with all 10 winners sharing that stat. Horses that finished in the first three LTO are worth close scrutiny as are those that were in the top three in the betting on the most recent start. In terms of age there are no clear patterns.

3.30 Haydock – Peter Marsh Chase (Grade 2 Limited handicap) – 3m

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: Third to fifth in the betting market have provided 7 winners from 33 qualifiers for a profit of £45.00 (ROI +136.4%).
Price: 7 of the last 10 winners were priced between 4/1 and 8/1.
Recent wins: All of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last five starts.
Days since last run: 8 of the last 10 winners had raced within the last month.
Course winners: 5 of the last 10 winners had previously won at Haydock.
LTO course: 8 of the last 10 winners raced LTO at either Haydock or Wetherby. Backing all runners would have produced 8 winners from 28 for a profit of £52.75 (ROI +188.4%).
Running style: 5 of the last 10 winners have led early and made most or all of the running.
Trainers: Venetia Williams has saddled 2 winners and a third from 5 runners. Sue Smith has saddled two winners and 2 placed from 7.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites: There has been 1 winning favourite from 10 qualifiers showing a loss of £6.75 (ROI -67.5%).
Breeding: French breds have a poor record in the race with just 1 success from 24 runners for a loss of £17.00 (ROI -70.8%).

GENERAL STATS

Age: 6 year olds have produced 0 winners from 1 qualifier (SR 0%); 7 year olds have produced 0 winners from 12 qualifiers (SR 0%); 8 year olds have produced 4 winners from 22 qualifiers (SR 18.2%); 9 year olds have produced 2 winners from 24 qualifiers (SR 8.3%); 10 year olds have produced 3 wins from 17 qualifiers (SR 17.6%); 11 year olds plus have produced 1 win from 13 qualifiers (SR 7.7%).

Trends analysis: The best starting point is to look for horses that have won at least once in their last five starts as they have provided all of the last 10 winners. In terms of price, the most successful ‘bracket’ has been between 4/1 and 8/1. Two other strong positives are horses that raced at either Haydock or Wetherby last time out, and those that have raced within the month. From a negative perspective, it seems best to avoid horses that are French bred and favourites have also struggled in recent years.

10 year trends Sandown Sat 7th Jan 2012

Saturday, January 7th, 2012 at 10:36 am  
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1.35 Sandown – 32Red Poker Juvenile Hurdle – class 4 (2m ½f) 

 

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites: There has been 5 winning favourites from 10 and backing all selections would have produced a profit of 86 pence (ROI +8.6%).
Price: 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 8/1 or shorter. (N.B. the other two winners were at 50/1 and 66/1).
Days since last run: Horses that had last raced between 8 and 14 days previously have provided 4 of the last 10 winners from just 11 runners.
Position LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO.
Market LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners were favourite or second favourite LTO.
Running style: 7 of the last 10 winners raced close to or up with the pace (3 made all).

 

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Sex of horse: 0 wins from 13 for female runners.
Price LTO: Horses priced 25/1 or bigger LTO have provided 0 winners from 26.
Distance beaten LTO: Horses beaten 20 lengths or more LTO have provided just 1 winner from 39 qualifiers.

 

GENERAL STATS

Trainers: No trainer has saddled the winner more than once.

 

Trends analysis: Favourites have a good record and despite two big priced winners the market tends to get it right. Past market data has proved useful also with 7 winners having been favourite or second favourite LTO. Good recent form is a plus with 70% of the winners having finished in the first three LTO. In terms of negatives, horses well beaten LTO have a poor record, as do female runners.

 

 

2.05 Sandown – 32Red Handicap Chase – Class 2 (2m)

 

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 6 of the last 10 winners were second or third favourites.
Price: 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 11/2 or shorter.
Weight rank: 7 of the last 10 winners were 3rd to 5yh in the weights.
Position LTO: 4 of the last 10 winners have finished 6th or worse LTO.
LTO favourites: Horses that were favourite LTO have provided 5 winners from 15 for a profit of £4.25 (ROI +28.3%).
Distance beaten LTO: Horses beaten 20 lengths or more LTO have provided 5 winners from 22 runners for a profit of £17.25 (ROI +78.4%).

 

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market: Favourites have provided 2 winners from 10 for a loss of £3.50 (ROI -35%).
Market: Horses 4th in the betting or bigger have provided just 2 winners from 42.
Headgear: 0 wins from 11 for horses wearing headgear.
Breeding: French bred runners have provided just 1 winner from 19 qualifiers for a loss of £15.75 (ROI -82.9%).

 

GENERAL STATS

Age: 5 & 6 year olds have produced 1 winner from 2 qualifiers (SR 50%); 7 year olds have produced 0 winners from 11 qualifiers (0%); 8 year olds have produced 5 winners from 22 qualifiers (SR 22.7%); 9 year olds have produced 3 winners from 22 (SR 13.6%); 10 year olds have produced 1 winner from 17 (SR 5.9%).

 

Trends analysis: this race has favoured second and third favourites, while the actual market leaders have provided poor value. LTO form has not been that important with 5 of the winners having been beaten by 20 lengths or more on their most recent outing. 7 of the last 10 winners were ranked 3rd to 5th in the weights, while in terms of age, 8 year olds have done best, with horses 10 or older having struggled.