Friday, December 30th, 2011 at
10:17 pm
3.05 Newbury – Grade 1 Challow Novices’ Hurdle – 2m5f
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 5 winning favourites from 11 qualifiers showing a profit of £1.58 (ROI +14.4%). |
| Market: 8 of the last 10 winners have been from the top two in the betting. |
| Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 7/1 or shorter. |
| Market LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners were favourite LTO. |
| Position LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners won LTO. |
| Course LTO: 5 of the last 10 winners raced at Cheltenham LTO (from only 17 qualifiers). |
| Trainers: Jonjo O’Neill has saddled 3 winners; 2 wins a piece for Paul Nicholls and Nick Williams. |
| Jockeys: 4 wins from 6 rides for Tony Mc Coy. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Market: Horses 5th or lower in the betting market have provided 0 winners from 36. |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 4 year olds have produced 2 winners from 20 qualifiers (SR 10%); 5 year olds have produced 6 winners from 31 qualifiers (SR 19.4%); 7 year olds plus have won 2 from 26 qualifiers (7.7%). |
Trends analysis: A race where positive trends are by far the strongest. Favourites have a decent record, and the market has been a good guide with all 10 winners being priced 7/1 or shorter. LTO market position has been an excellent indicator with 9 of the last 10 winners being favourite on their most recent start. To put that in perspective LTO favourites have provided 905 of the winners from only 43% of the total runners. Jonjo O’Neill has a good record in the race, as does champion jockey Ttony Mc Coy. In terms of age, 5 year olds seem to hold the edge.
Thursday, December 8th, 2011 at
10:34 am
2.00 Huntingdon – Peterborough Chase – 2 miles 4f (Grade 2)
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 5 winning favourites (including joints) from 11. |
| Market: 9 of the last 10 winners came from the top three in the betting. Indeed, 16 of the last 17 winners matched that stat. |
| Price: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 5/1 or shorter. |
| Position LTO: Horses that won LTO have provided 5 of the last 10 winners. Backing all 13 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £13.76 (ROI +105.8%). |
| Recent wins: 7 of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last four starts (that stretches to 14 out of last 17). |
| Running style: 6 wins from 10 for horses that have taken the early lead – worth noting if you play “in running”. |
| Trainers: Henrietta Knight has a remarkable record with 5 wins from 7 runners. Going back to 1998 this becomes 8 wins from 10. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses priced 11/2 or bigger have produced just 1 winner from 38 runners for a loss of £25.00 (ROI -65.8%). |
| Running style: Hold up horses have been successful just once from 22 so in play punters be wary. |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 5/6 year olds have won 3 races from 9 qualifiers (SR 33.3%); 7 year olds have won 3 races from 11 qualifiers (SR 27.3%); 8 year olds have won 1 race from 21 qualifiers (SR 4.8%); 9 year olds and older have won 3 races from 24 qualifiers (SR 12.5%). |
Trends analysis: favourites have a solid record, and it is best to concentrate on horses priced 5/1 or shorter as they have provided 9 of the last 10 winners (16 of last 17). Next stop is to see if trainer Henrietta Knight has a runner as her 5 wins from 7 is rather eye-catching! Last time out winners demand respect, while in terms of age there has been a mix of winners, with 5 and 6 year olds doing well from a handful of runners.
