Saturday, November 19th, 2011 at
10:25 am
2.45 Ascot – Coral Ascot Hurdle 2m 3½f (Grade 2)
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites (inc joints): There have been 6 winning favourites from 12 and backing all selections would have produced a profit of £2.88 (ROI +24%). |
| Market: 9 of the last 10 winners have come from the top two of the betting. |
| Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 7/2 or shorter. Backing all 25 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £6.46 (ROI +25.8%). |
| Market LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners were priced 11/2 or shorter LTO. |
| Position LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners won LTO (from only 17 runners). |
| Trainers: 2 wins a piece for Dessie Hughes, Nicky Henderson and Francois Doumen. |
| Course winners: 4 wins and 3 placed runs from 15 runs for previous course winners. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses priced 4/1 or bigger have produced 0 winners from 40 runners. |
| Breeding: Just 1 win from 15 for British bred runners. |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 4 year olds have produced 2 winners from 5 qualifiers (SR 40%); 5 year olds have produced 1 winner from 11 qualifiers (SR 9.1%); 6 year olds have produced 2 winners from 16 qualifiers (SR 12.5%); 7 year olds have produced 2 wins from 14 (SR 14.3%); 8 year olds plus have produced 3 wins from 19 (SR 15.8%). |
Trends analysis: this race has an impressive roll of honour with winners including Dawn Run, Gaye Brief, Morley Street, Baracouda and Hardy Eustace. Favourites have a good record and should be the first port of call, with second favourites also respected. A previous course win is a plus, while age wise, there is a wide age-range in terms of winners and hence there seems no edge to found there. LTO winners have done well so they require close scrutiny too.
3.20 Ascot – Carey Group Handicap Chase 2m 1f (Grade 2)
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites: There have been 5 winning favourites from 10 producing a profit of £4.92 (ROI +49.2%). |
| Market: 9 of the last 10 winners have come from the top four of the betting. |
| Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 8/1 or shorter. |
| Days since last run: 7 of the last 10 winners had run within the last 3 weeks. |
| Weight rank: 8 of the last 10 winners have come from the top 4 of the weights. |
| Market LTO: 5 of the last 10 winners were favourites LTO. |
| Price LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 15/2 or shorter LTO. |
| Position LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners came first or second LTO. |
| Trainers: 2 wins for Paul Nicholls (from 6 runners) and 2 wins for Nicky Henderson (from 5 runners). |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses priced 17/2 or bigger have produced 0 winners from 28 runners. |
| Headgear: 0 wins from 15 for horses wearing any type of headgear. |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 5 year olds have produced 1 winner from 4 qualifiers (SR 25%); 6 year olds have produced 4 winners from 13 qualifiers (SR 30.8%); 7 year olds have produced 2 winners from 16 qualifiers (SR 12.5%); 8 year olds have produced 3 wins from 16 (SR 18.8%); 9 year olds plus have produced 0 wins from 23 (SR 0%). |
Trends analysis: this race is dominated by positive stats. Favourites have a decent record especially considering it is a handicap. Indeed in general the market has got it right with all of the winners being priced 8/1 or shorter. In terms of weight, the top 4 weights have had a clear edge, and if you restrict these higher weighted runners to only those priced 8/1 or shorter you would have pinpointed 8 winners from a shortlist of just 32. In terms of age it looks best to avoid horses aged 9 or older.
Saturday, November 12th, 2011 at
10:49 am
Paddy Power trends for 4 races
Saturday 1.20 – JCB Triumph Novices’ hurdle (Grade 2) – 2m½f
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: 7 of the last 10 winners have come from the top 2 in the betting (4 wins for favourites). |
| Price: Horses priced 11/2 or shorter have won 8 of the last 10 races. |
| Price LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 8/1 or shorter LTO. |
| Position LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners won LTO. |
| Sires: The sire Kalanisi has had 4 runners of which 2 have won and 1 other has
placed. |
| Trainers: 2 wins a piece for Alan King and Paul Nicholls. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Sex of horse: 15 fillies have taken part and none have won. |
| Price: Horses priced 11/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 65. |
| Breeding: British bred runners have provided just 1 winner from 32 runners for a loss of £26.50 (ROI -82.8%). |
GENERAL STATS
| Breeding: Irish bred runners have won 50% of the races from 34% of the total runners. |
Trends analysis: this has been a market dominated race with the top 2 in the betting dominating. Indeed it seems that you can draw a line through around half the runners as 10/1 has been the cut-off point (all 10 winners priced 10/1 or shorter). LTO winners have a solid record and trainers Alan King and Paul Nicholls should be respected. In terms of negatives, both British bred runners and fillies look worth avoiding.
Saturday 2.35 – Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase (Grade 3) – 2m4½ f
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites: 4 of the last 10 winners have been favourite and backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £9.25 (ROI +92.5%). |
| Price: Horses priced between 12/1 and 20/1 have provided 4 winners. |
| Market LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners were favourite or second favourite LTO. |
| Price LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 13/2 or shorter LTO. |
| Position LTO: 5 of the last 10 winners won LTO. |
| Trainers: 4 wins for the Pipe stable, but none since David took over from his father. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Course LTO: Horses that raced at Aintree LTO have provided just 1 winner from 31 for a loss of £25.50 (ROI -82.3%). |
| Handicap LTO: Horses that raced in a handicap LTO have provided 3 winners from 116 for a loss of £91.75 (ROI -79.1%). |
| Breeding: British bred runners have provided 0 winners from 37. |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 5 year olds have produced 0 winners from 11 qualifiers (SR 0%); 6 year olds have produced 2 winners from 27 qualifiers (SR 7.4%); 7 year olds have produced 5 winners from 42 qualifiers (SR 11.9%); 8 year olds have provided 2 winners from 40 qualifiers (SR 5%); 9 year olds plus have provided 1 winner from 39 qualifiers (SR 2.6%). |
Trends analysis: favourites have a good record, but also so do runners priced 12/1 to 20/1. A better market to take note of is the LTO market for each runner as 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 13/2 or shorter on their most recent start. LTO winners have a fairly good record, while runners that have poor records include horses aged 9 and older, British bred runners and horses that raced in a handicap LTO.
Sunday 1.10 – Independent Newspaper Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) – 2 miles
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites: There have been 5 winning favourites from 10 qualifiers showing a small profit of 81 pence. |
| Market: 8 of the last 10 winners came from the top two in the market. |
| Days since last run: 9 of the last 10 winners had raced within the last 5 weeks (35 days). |
| Position LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners won last time out. |
| Market LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners were favourites on their most recent start. Backing all such runners would have produced a profit of £8.81 (ROI +44.1%). |
| Price: Horses priced 100/30 or shorter LTO have provided 8 of last 10 winners. |
| Price LTO: Horses priced 9/4 or shorter LTO have provided 9 of the last 10 winners. |
| Running style: 8 of the last 10 runners have either led early or raced close to the pace. |
| Trainers: Paul Nicholls has had 5 winners from 12 runners. |
| Breeding: Only 4 German bred horses have contested the race but all 4 have won! |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses priced 11/1 or bigger have produced 0 winners from 19 runners. |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 4 year olds have produced 2 winners from 8 qualifiers (SR 25%); 5 year olds have produced 2 winners from 14 qualifiers (SR 14.3%); 6 year olds have produced 5 winners from 16 qualifiers (SR 31.3%); 7 year olds plus have provided 1 winner from 22 qualifiers (SR 4.5%). |
Trends analysis: A good starting point is to simply focus on the top two in the betting who have provided 80% of the winners. It is also worthwhile looking at the market of their last run as horses that were priced 9/4 or shorter LTO have an excellent record. Last time out winners have performed well, while for ‘in running’ punters it has been a big advantage to race up with the pace. Trainer wise, Paul Nicholls has an excellent record in the race with 5 wins including the last 3 renewals. In terms of age 6yos have done well, while 7yos and older have not.
Sunday 2.20 – The Greatwood Handicap Hurdle Race (Grade 3) – 2m ½f
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: 7 of the last 10 winners have come from the top 2 in the betting. 2nd favourites have provided of those winners for a profit of £16.00 (ROI +177.8%). |
| Price: Horses priced 9/1 or shorter have provided 9 of the last 10 winners. |
| Market position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners were in the top 3 of the betting LTO. |
| Price LTO: Horses priced 9/2 or shorter last time out have provided 8 of the last 10 winners. |
| Age: 5 year olds have a good record with 6 wins from 47 qualifiers for a profit of £12.70 (ROI +27%). |
| Weight rank: The top weight or joint top weight has won the race 4 times from just 12 runners. |
| Trainers: 3 wins for the Phillip Hobbs stable. |
| Running style: 7 of the 10 winners were “held up” off the pace. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Position LTO: Horses who finished 6th or worse LTO have provided 0 winners from 31. |
| Price: Horses priced 10/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 87. |
| Age: 4 year olds have registered 1 win from 26 runners; 8 year olds plus have produced just 1 winner from 23 runners. |
| Conditional Jockeys: 0 wins from 32 for horses ridden by conditional jockeys. |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 3 winning favourites (including joints) from 11 producing a small loss of £2.09. |
Trends analysis: This tends to be a market dominated race with 7 of the last 10 winners being from the top two of the betting, and just 1 winner from 87 for horses priced in double figures. Top weights have won 40% of the races which is unusual for a competitive handicap, especially considering the average field size has been 13. In terms of age 5 year olds have done particularly well. For “in running” punters hold up horses have performed best.
