Friday, July 29th, 2011 at
10:02 am
3.10 Goodwood – Totesport Mile – 1 mile all age handicap (3yo+)
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses whose starting price has been between 9/2 and 12/1 have produced 8 of the last 10 winners. |
| Market: Horses from the top 5 of the betting have 9 of the 10 races. |
| Draw: 8 of the last 10 winners have been drawn within 4 stalls of the inside rail (effectively low draws). |
| Recent form: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first five LTO. |
| Days since last run: 7 of the last 10 winners had their last race between 20 and 28 days previously. |
| Trainers: Mark Johnston has had 3 winners in the last 10 years; Roger Charlton has had 2 winners from just 3 winners (the other horse placed). |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Market: Horses 6th or bigger in the betting have provided just 1 winner from 135 qualifiers for a loss of £109.00 (ROI -80.7%). |
| Beaten distance LTO: Horses that were beaten 10 or more lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 34. |
| Days since last run: Horses returning to the track after a break of 7 days or less have won just once in 42 attempts showing a loss of £38.50 (ROI -91.7%). |
| Claiming jockeys: 19 claiming jockeys have been used in the race, but all have been beaten. |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites: 2 winning favourites for a loss of £1.00 (ROI -10%). |
| Course LTO: Horses that had raced at Ascot LTO have provided just 1 winner from 42 qualifiers for a loss of £38.50 (ROI -91.7%). This looks a strong negative trend, but it should be noted though a further 11 have been placed. |
| Age: 3 year olds have produced 2 wins from 22 (SR 9.1%); 4 year olds have been successful 4 times from 67 runners (SR 6%); 5 year olds have produced 3 wins from 51 runners (SR 5.9%); horses aged 6 or older have won just 1 winner from 54 (SR 1.9%). |
| Trends Summary: When looking at this race you are best to look for a horse drawn close to the inside rail that is in the top 5 of the betting. The draw bias is arguably the strongest trend and I would ignore horses drawn 10 stalls or more away from the inside. In terms of days off the track horses having a break of around 3-4 weeks have done especially well, while age wise 6yos and older have a poor record. In terms of trainers, Mark Johnston and Roger Charlton have combined to win 50% of the races in the last 10 years. |
Thursday, July 28th, 2011 at
11:17 am
3.15 Goodwood – The Goodwood Cup (Group 2) – 2 miles (3yo+)
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: 7 of the 10 races have been won by horses from the top two of the betting. 9 of the 10 from the top 4. |
| Price: All 10 races have been won by horses priced 10/1 or lower. |
| Days since last run: Horses returning to the track between 21 and 42 days have won all of the last 10 races. |
| Race Class LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners had raced in a Group 1 race on their previous start (from 29 qualifiers). A small profit of £7.56 (ROI +26.1%) would have been achieved if backing all qualifiers. |
| Recent wins: 9 of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last 4 starts. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses priced 11/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 58. |
| Position LTO: Horses that finished 4th or worse LTO have provided only 2 winners from 51 for a loss of £31.00 (ROI -60.8%). |
| LTO distance: Horses that raced at under 2 miles LTO have a poor record with just 1 win from 24 for a loss of £21.50 (ROI -89.6%). |
| LTO Race class: Horses that raced below Group 1 class LTO have provided just 3 winners from 78 for a hefty loss of £62.00 (ROI -79.5%). |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites: 5 wins from 10 qualifiers for a profit of £2.06 (ROI +20.6%). |
| Age: 3 year olds rarely run in the race, but all 5 have been beaten since 2001. 4 year olds have won 1 race from 39 (SR 2.6%); 5 years olds have won 2 times from 23 (SR 8.7%); 6 year olds plus have the best record with 6 wins from 40 qualifiers (SR 15%). |
| LTO course: Horses that raced at Ascot LTO have provided 6 of they last 10 winners (60%) – they have provided 43% of the total runners. |
| Trends Summary: The best starting point is to look for the front end of the market with all of the last 10 winners priced 10/1 or shorter. Horses that raced in a Group 1 race LTO have a good record, and the majority ran in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot so these runners merit close scrutiny. Also look for horses that have won at least once in their last four starts, while older horses (6yo+) have had an edge over their younger rivals. In terms of negatives avoid runners that raced under 2 miles LTO, while horses that finished 4th or worse on their most recent start have a poor record also. |
Friday, July 22nd, 2011 at
6:36 pm
1.30 Ascot – Longines Handicap – 7f (class 3 handicap) 3yo+
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses priced between 9/1 and 20/1 have provided 7 of the last 10 winners. |
| Position LTO: Horses that finished 3rd to 6th LTO have provided 8 of the last 10 winners. |
| Days since last run: 7 of the last 10 winners had raced within the last 15 days. |
| Weight: 5 of the last 10 winners came from the bottom six in the weights. With an average field size of 21 during this period this has been a reasonably strong trend. |
| Jockeys: Miss S Brotherton has won the race twice and been placed on one other occasion. |
| Course LTO: Only 6 horses raced at Haydock LTO but 3 have come on to win here. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 0 wins from 13. |
| Market: Just 1 win from 31 for horses from the top three of the betting. |
| Weight: Horses from the top 8 of the weights have provided just 2 winners from 80 for a loss of £60.00 (ROI -75%). |
| Position LTO: Horses that won or finished 2nd LTO have provided 0 winners from 48. |
| LTO race: 24 horses raced in a non handicap LTO and all have lost. |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 3yos have provided 0 winners from 17 (SR 0%); 4yos have provided 6 winners from 62 (SR 9.7%); 5yos have provided 2 winners from 45 (SR 4.4%); 6yos+ have provided 2 winners from 87 (SR 2.3%). |
Trends analysis: In recent years it has been worthwhile to look for horses priced 9/1 to 20/1 as they have provided 7 of the last 10 winners. Indeed the top three in the betting have a dreadful record and it has been value to look beyond these runners, Last time out winners / runners up have NOT been worth following and in general it is a race where if you fancy a horse do not be put off by the price as there also have been two winners at 33/1. 4 year olds have the best record age wise, while horses aged 6 or older look worth avoiding. Finally lower weighted runners have clearly out-performed higher weighted ones.
2.40 Ascot – Princess Margaret – 6f (Group 3) 2yo (fillies)
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 5 wins from 12 for a profit of £4.83 (ROI +40.3%). |
| Market: 8 of the last 10 winners came from the top two in the betting. |
| Position LTO: 5 of the last 10 winners finished 2nd or 3rd LTO. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £15.33 (ROI +56.8%). |
| Price: 9 of the last 10 winners have been priced 6/1 or shorter. |
| Course LTO: 5 of the 10 winners raced at Ascot LTO. That equates to 50% of the winners from only 15% of the total runners. Backing all runners would have produced a profit of £8.00 (ROI +53.3%). |
| Running style: Hold up horses have the best record in the race with 6 wins. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Market: Horses 4th or higher in the betting market have provided 1 winner from 67 runners for a loss of £41.00 (ROI -61.2%). |
| Breeding: Irish bred runners have a poor record with just 2 wins from 39 for a loss of £28.00 (ROI -71.8%). |
| Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten by more than 3 lengths LTO have provided 1 winner from 19 runners for a loss of £15.50 (ROI -81.6%). |
| Course LTO: Horses that did NOT race at a Grade 1 track LTO have provided just 1 winner from 28 runners for a loss of £21.00 (ROI -75%). |
GENERAL STATS
| Class LTO: Horses dropped in class / racing in the same class have won 5 races from 24 for a small loss of £2.00 |
Trends analysis: This race has been an excellent one for market leaders with 50% of the races seeing a winning favourite. Indeed in general it is a market driven race with 9 of the winners priced 6/1 or shorter. Take special note of horses that ran at Ascot last time out, while ignore any runner that did not race at a Grade 1 track LTO. It has also been an advantage to come from off the pace so in running punters take note.
4.25 Ascot – King George & Queen Elizabeth Stakes – 1m4f (Group 1) 3yo+
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites: 7 wins from 10 for a profit of £5.47 (ROI +54.7%). |
| Market: The top two in the betting have provided 9 of the last 10 winners. |
| Price: All of the winners have been priced 13/2 or shorter. |
| Price: Horses priced 5/2 or shorter have provided 7 winners from just 9 runners! |
| Breeding: 9 of the last 10 winners were Irish bred. |
| Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first two LTO (6 won). |
| Course LTO: 5 of the last 7 winners raced at Royal Ascot LTO. |
| Trainers: 5 wins for Irish trainers (3 for O’Brien, 2 for Oxx); Sir Michael Stoute has had 3 successes also. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses priced 7/1 or bigger have produced 0 winners from 62. |
| Market: Horses 5th or higher in the betting market have provided 0 winners from 52. |
| Breeding: Just 1 win from 25 for British bred runners. |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 3yos have provided 2 winners from 14 (SR 14.3%); 4yos have provided 8 winners from 41 (SR 19.5%); 5yos+ have provided 0 winners from 37 (SR 0%). |
Trends analysis: This has been a market driven race with favourites having an excellent record, and the shorter the price the better. Horses priced 5/2 or shorter have a remarkable record of 7 wins from 9 qualifiers. Irish bred runners have done well as have Irish trainers, while horses that raced at Royal Ascot LTO have a good recent record. A win LTO has also been a positive. 4 year olds have dominated in recent years with not many 3 year olds prepared to take on their elders. The last 5yo to win was Daylami back in 1999.
Friday, July 15th, 2011 at
8:54 pm
2.20 Newbury – Shadwell Stakes (Registered As The Hackwood Stakes) – 6f Group 3
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Days Since Last Run: Horses that have been off the track for 2 weeks or less have provided 5 winners from 32 for a profit of £27.50 (ROI +85.9%. |
| Position LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners finished 4th or worse LTO. |
| Distance LTO: 8 of the 10 winners raced over 6f LTO (such runners have been over twice as likely to win this race compared to horses that have run over 5 or 7f LTO). |
| Trainers: Hughie Morrison and Tim Easterby have both saddled the winner twice in the last 10 years. |
| Race type LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners raced in a non handicap LTO. |
| Running style: 7 of the last 10 winners were held up off the pace. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Market: Horses sixth or bigger in the betting have provided just 1 winner from 44 for a loss of £29.00 (ROI -65.9%). |
| Price LTO: Horses that were priced 11/2 or shorter LTO have provided 0 winners from 22. |
| Price: Horses priced 20/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners and just 3 placed from 27 runners. |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites: 3 wins from 10 for a small profit of 38 pence. |
| Age: 3yos have won 4 races from 32 runners (SR 12.5%); 4yos have won 3 races from 19 (SR 15.8%); 5yos have won 0 races from 18 (SR 0%); 6yos and older have won 3 races from 30 (SR 10%). |
Trends analysis: This has been a fairly open contest with recent form not a key factor. This is illustrated by the fact that only 3 of the last 10 winners finished in the first three on their most recent start. Indeed all 22 horses that were 11/2 or shorter on that last run have gone on to lose here. The market does generally get it about right with the top 5 in the betting 9 of the last renewals. In terms of age bias there is nothing clear cut, although in running punters may gain an edge by backing hold up horses as they have been by far the most successful.
2.35 Newmarket – Newsells Stud Stakes (Registered As The Aphrodite Stakes) – 1m4f Listed (fillies/mares)
There was a dead heat in 2002 so there are 11 winners to discuss.
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: 9 of the 11 winners came from top three in the betting (all from the top 5). |
| Price: 9 of the 11 winners were priced 7/1 or shorter. |
| Breeding: 7 of the 11 winners were British bred and backing all of them would have produced a small profit of £1.20. |
| Price LTO: Horses priced LTO between 100/30 and 14/1 have provided all 11 winners. |
| Class LTO: Horses that raced in a Group 3 race LTO have provided 5 winners from 10 qualifiers for a profit of £22.38 (ROI +223.8%). |
| Course LTO: 4 winners from just 10 runners raced at Haydock LTO. Backing all runners would have produced a profit of £11.38 (ROI +113.8%). They have been 4 winners from 17 for horses that raced at Ascot LTO for a profit of £13.50 (ROI +79.1%). |
| Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten 10 or more lengths LTO have done surprisingly well with 4 wins from 16 qualifiers for a profit of £16.50 (ROI +103.1%). |
| Trainers: 4 wins from just 8 runners for John Gosden. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Market: Horses sixth or bigger in the betting have provided 0 winners from 32. |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 3 wins from 11 for a loss of £2.42 (ROI -22%). |
| Age: 3yos have won 4 races from 42 runners (SR 9.5%); 4yos have won 5 races from 34 (SR 14.7%); 5yos+ have won 2 races from 7 (SR 28.6%). |
Trends analysis: In general the market has been a good guide to the outcome of this race with the top five in the betting provided all of the winners. This would seem a logical starting point. 100% of the winners were priced between 100/30 and 14/1 on their most recent start – this is significant as they accounted for only 55% of the total runners. Other positive factors include racing at Haydock or Ascot LTO, racing in a Group 3 race LTO and somewhat surprisingly horses having been beaten by 10 or more lengths LTO. Age wise 4yos and older seem to have a slight edge over the 3yos, while trainer John Gosden has an excellent record.
3.30 Newbury Weatherby’s Super Sprint – 5f class 2
There was no renewal in 2007 so I have got back an extra year to accommodate the last 10 races.
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: 7 of the last 10 winners came from the top three in betting. Backing all runners would have produced a profit of £13.00 (ROI +41.9%). |
| Days since last run: 9 of the last 10 winners had a break of between 9 and 32 days. |
| Course LTO: 8 of the 10 winners raced at Ascot or Newmarket LTO. They have provided 80% of the winners from just 22.4% of the total runners. |
| Price LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners were priced 7/1 or shorter LTO. |
| Running style/pace: Horses that have raced up with or close to the pace have won 8 of the last 10 renewals. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Total races run: Horses that had previously run 5 times or more have provided just 2 winners from 73 qualifiers for a loss of £63.00 (ROI -86.3%). |
| Maidens: 59 maidens have contested the race producing just 1 winner. |
| Days since last run: 24 horses have run after a break of 7 days or less producing 0 winners and just 1 placed runner. |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 12 for a loss of £3.00 (ROI -25%). |
| Sex of horse: Fillies have a better record than their male counterparts with 6 wins from 110 runners (SR 5.5%); male runners have produced 4 winners from 122 runners (SR 3.3%). |
| Trainers: Richard Hannon has saddled the winner 4 times although he has sent out 45 runners in total. |
Trends analysis: In the 90s, one of the key factors was the draw. Very high draws had an excellent record, but since 2001 the bias has disappeared and hence this is not a trend that we can utilize anymore. Considering there is on average 23 runners, the market has been very accurate with 7 of the last 10 winners coming from the top three in the betting. It should also pay to concentrate on runners that raced at Ascot or Newmarket LTO as they have provided 8 winners from less than a quarter of the total runners. Females have a better record than males and maidens look worth avoiding as do horses that have run 5 or more times in their careers.
2.35 Newmarket – Newsells Stud Stakes (Registered As The Aphrodite Stakes) – 1m4f Listed (fillies/mares)
There was a dead heat in 2002 so there are 11 winners to discuss.
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: 9 of the 11 winners came from top three in the betting (all from the top 5). |
| Price: 9 of the 11 winners were priced 7/1 or shorter. |
| Breeding: 7 of the 11 winners were British bred and backing all of them would have produced a small profit of £1.20. |
| Price LTO: Horses priced LTO between 100/30 and 14/1 have provided all 11 winners. |
| Class LTO: Horses that raced in a Group 3 race LTO have provided 5 winners from 10 qualifiers for a profit of £22.38 (ROI +223.8%). |
| Course LTO: 4 winners from just 10 runners raced at Haydock LTO. Backing all runners would have produced a profit of £11.38 (ROI +113.8%). They have been 4 winners from 17 for horses that raced at Ascot LTO for a profit of £13.50 (ROI +79.1%). |
| Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten 10 or more lengths LTO have done surprisingly well with 4 wins from 16 qualifiers for a profit of £16.50 (ROI +103.1%). |
| Trainers: 4 wins from just 8 runners for John Gosden. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Market: Horses sixth or bigger in the betting have provided 0 winners from 32. |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 3 wins from 11 for a loss of £2.42 (ROI -22%). |
| Age: 3yos have won 4 races from 42 runners (SR 9.5%); 4yos have won 5 races from 34 (SR 14.7%); 5yos+ have won 2 races from 7 (SR 28.6%). |
Trends analysis: In general the market has been a good guide to the outcome of this race with the top five in the betting provided all of the winners. This would seem a logical starting point. 100% of the winners were priced between 100/30 and 14/1 on their most recent start – this is significant as they accounted for only 55% of the total runners. Other positive factors include racing at Haydock or Ascot LTO, racing in a Group 3 race LTO and somewhat surprisingly horses having been beaten by 10 or more lengths LTO. Age wise 4yos and older seem to have a slight edge over the 3yos, while trainer John Gosden has an excellent record.
Saturday, July 9th, 2011 at
10:17 am
2.55 Newmarket – Bunbury Cup – 7f (Class 2 handicap) 3yo+
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 3 wins from 12 for a profit of £4.00 (ROI +33.3%). |
| Days since last run: All of the last 10 winners had their last run within 35 days. |
| Price: Horses priced between 10/1 and 16/1 have provided 6 of the winners. Backing all runners in this price bracket would have actually made you a profit of £20.00 (ROI +31.3%). |
| Position LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO. |
| Breeding: 8 of the last 10 winners were Irish bred. |
| Running style: 5 of the last 10 winners led early or disputed the lead early. |
| Draw: 6 of the last 10 winners have been drawn 14 or higher. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price 20/1+: Horses priced 20/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 82 qualifiers for a loss of £56.00 (ROI -68.3%). |
| Draw: Horses drawn in the middle have been at a disadvantage in recent years. In the last 10 years, draws 8 to 13 have provided 0 winners. |
| Beaten distance LTO: Horses that were beaten by 8 or more lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 47. |
GENERAL STATS
| Fate of the favs: 11, 1, 1, 3/16, 2, 13, 13/17, 11, 2, 1 |
| Class: Horses dropped in class have won 0 races from 17 (SR 0%); horses racing in the same class as LTO have won 6 races from 136 (SR 4.4%); horses upped in class have won 4 races from 32 (SR 12.5%). |
| Age: 3yos have provided 0 winners from 11 (SR 0%); 4yos have provided 5 winners from 67 (SR 7.5%); 5yos have provided 1 winner from 52 (SR 1.9%); 6yos have provided 1 winner from 32 (SR 3.1%); 7yos+ have provided 3 winners from 24 (SR 12.5%). |
Trends analysis: In terms of a good starting point, it looks best to ignore outsiders priced 20/1 or bigger as winners have been very rare not just in the last 10 years bit in the previous 10 years also. The value price bracket has been between 10/1 and 16/1, while favourites have done pretty well too. Also look for horses that have run within the last 5 weeks as they have provided all of the last 10 winners. It looks best to avoid horses that were well beaten last time, while in terms of age there are no easy patterns to glean. In terms of class LTO, horses that raced in a lower grade LTO have performed well from a small sample.
3.35 Newmarket – July Cup – 6f (Group 1) 3yo+
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: 8 of the last 10 winners came from the top 5 in the betting. |
| LTO course: 8 of the last 10 winners ran at Royal Ascot LTO. |
| Days since last run: All of the last 10 winners had their last run between 19 and 26 days. |
| Market Rank LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners were either favourite or second favourite LTO. |
| Trainers: Aidan O’Brien has won the race twice as has Hughie Morrison. |
| Beaten distance LTO: Horses that won LTO or were beaten by 2½ lengths or less have provided 7 of the last 10 winners. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price 16/1+: Horses priced 16/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 95 qualifiers for a loss of £72.00 (ROI -75.8%). |
| Headgear: Horses wearing any type of headgear (blinkers, visor, tongue tie etc) have provided just 1 winner from 30. |
| LTO Class: Horses that ran below Group class LTO have provided 1 winner from 19 for a loss of £13.50 (ROI -71.1%). |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 3 wins from 11 for a profit of 50 pence. |
| Fate of the favs: 1, 3, 2, 19, 4/13, 7, 6, 1, 10, 1 |
| Age: 3yos have provided 3 winners from 40 (SR 7.5%); 4yos have provided 3 winners from 49 (SR 6.1%); 5yos have provided 3 winners from 35 (SR 8.6%); 6yos+ have provided 1 winner from 36 (SR 2.8%). |
Trends analysis: An interesting set of statistics in a race that is not totally dominated by the market. The top 3 in the market have provided 50% of the winners, but that needs to be compared with the overall figure for Group 1s which sees the top 3 in the market providing over 70% of the winners. In order to narrow down the candidates it is best to focus on horses that have run for between 19 and 26 days, especially if they have run at Royal Ascot. From here ignore any horse that had run LTO outside Group class even though Sakhee’s Secret broke that trend three years ago in 2007. In terms of age it is best to ignore older horses aged 6 or more.
Friday, July 8th, 2011 at
12:27 pm
Cherry Hinton – 6f (Group 2) 2yo (fillies)
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 6 wins from 10 for a profit of £3.00 (ROI +30%). |
| LTO Favourites: Horses that were favourite LTO have provided 6 of the winners from 27 qualifiers for a small profit of £1.75 (ROI +6.5%). |
| LTO winners: 9 of the last 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd LTO (6 won). |
| LTO course: 7 of the last 10 winners ran at Royal Ascot LTO. |
| LTO race type: All of the last 10 winners raced in a fillies’ only race LTO. |
| LTO price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 10/1 or shorter LTO. |
| Trainers: Richard Hannon has had 2 winners from 7 runners (and one further horse placed). |
| Jockeys: Richard Hughes and Frankie Dettori have both won the race twice in the last 10 years. |
| Running style: 8 of the last 10 winners raced up with or close to the pace. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses priced 16/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 37. |
| Market: 2nd, 3rd and 4th favourites combined have a poor record with just 1 win from 31 for a loss of £26.50 (ROI -85.5%). |
| Position LTO: Horses finishing 3rd or worse LTO have provided just 1 winner from 40 qualifiers for a loss of £25.00 (ROI -62.5%). |
GENERAL STATS
| Fate of the favs: 1, 2, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 4, 2, 1 |
Trends analysis: This race has been a good one for market leaders with 60% of the races seeing a winning favourite. Indeed, horses that were favourite LTO have an excellent record also. Last time out winners (and runners-up) have a good record also. In terms of price, there have been no wins for horses priced 16/1 or bigger, while LTO price has been important also with all of the last 10 winners having been priced 10/1 or shorter in their most recent start.
Saturday, July 2nd, 2011 at
8:16 am
3.10 Sandown – Coral Eclipse – 1m2f (Group 1) 3yo+
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: Second and third favourites have provided 6 of the last 10 winners. Backing all runners would have produced a profit of £21.75 (ROI +108.8%). |
| Price: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 8/1 or shorter. |
| Position LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO. |
| Days since last run: All 10 winners had been off the track for between 17 and 28 days. |
| LTO course: 7 of the last 10 winners ran at Royal Ascot LTO. |
| LTO class: 9 of the last 10 winners raced in a Group 1 contest LTO, (11 of last 12 for the record). |
| LTO price: 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 13/2 or shorter LTO. |
| Trainers: Aidan O’Brien 3 has provided 3 winners, Sir Michael Stoute 2. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses priced 14/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 40. |
| Favourites: Although favourites have won the last two, backing them over the last 10 years would have made a loss of £4.27 (ROI -42.7%). |
| Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten 8 or more lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 20. |
GENERAL STATS
| Fate of the favs: 4, 1, 2, 8, 2, 5, 2, 2, 1, 1 |
| Age: 3yos have provided 3 winners from 29 (SR 10.3%); 4yos have provided 4 winners from 32 (SR 12.5%); 5yos have provided 3 winners from 20 (SR 15%); 6yo+ have provided 0 winners from 6 (SR 0%). |
Trends analysis: This tends to be a good race for trends’ followers. It is a race dominated by positive trends with the market generally getting it right. Second and third favourites have proved better value than the favourite, while runners that raced at Royal Ascot LTO have provided 7 of the 10 winners. Runners from the high profile stables of Aidan O’Brien and Sir Michael Stoute demand great respect as between them they have provided 5 of the last 10 winners, and indeed 9 of the last 18. Racing in Group 1 company LTO is another plus with 9 of the last 10 winners having run at the top level on their latest start. From an age perspective there does seem any bias, while in terms of negatives, it looks best to ignore horses that were beaten by 8 or more lengths LTO.
2.50 Haydock – Lancashire Oaks – 1m4f (Group 2) 3yo+
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: The top 3 in the betting have provided 8 of the last 10 winners. |
| Price: 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 13/2 or shorter LTO. |
| LTO winners: Horses that won LTO have provided 5 winners from 21 qualifiers for a profit of £28.75 (ROI +136.9%). |
| Days off the track: Horses off the track for more than 4 weeks have provided 6 winners from 40 qualifiers for a profit of £8.37 (ROI +20.9%). |
| Market position LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners were favourite or second favourite LTO. |
| Trainers: John Gosden has had 2 winners (different horses). David Elsworth has won it twice in the last two years with Barshiba. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses priced 14/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 31 runners. |
| Recent form: Horses that have failed to win one of their last six races have provided 0 winners from 10. |
| Running style: Just 1 win for horses held up mid division or at the back early in the race. |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites: 3 wins from 11 for a small loss of £2.13. |
| Fate of the favs: 1, 1, 6, 2, 7, 3, 5, 1/2, 3, 2 |
| Age: 3yos have provided 3 winners from 45 (SR 6.7%); 4yos have provided 4 winners from 35 (SR 11.4%); 5yos+ have provided 3 winners from 9 (SR 33.3%). |
Trends analysis: The top three in the betting have provided 80% of the winners so this seems a sensible starting point. LTO winners have a decent record, as do horses that have been off the track for over 4 weeks. For in running punters it should be noted that hold up horses have a poor record and it has proved best to concentrate on runners that are tracking the early pace.
3.25 Haydock – Old Newton Cup – 1m4f (Class 2 handicap) 4yo+
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Last six races: 9 of the last 10 winners had won at least one of their last six races. |
| LTO race type: 9 of the last 10 winners ran in an all age handicap LTO. |
| Price: 6 of the last 10 winners have been priced between 7/1 and 9/1. |
| Age: 4yos have provided 7 winners for a profit of £27.50 (ROI +39.3%). |
| Days since last run: 5 of the last 10 winners ran had had a break of between 10 and 14 days. |
| Class: Horses stepping up in class have a good record with 6 wins and a profit of £42.50 (ROI +86.7%). |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses priced 20/1 or bigger have provided 1 winner from 56. |
| Age: Horses aged 6 or older have provided 0 winners from 41. |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 14 for a loss of £2.00 (ROI -14.3%). |
| Fate of the favs: 9, 8, 4/10, 4, 8, 5/11, 4/12, 2, 1, 1/10, 9 |
| Position LTO: 5 of the last 10 winners won or finished 2nd LTO. |
| Distance winners: Distance winners have been just under twice as likely to win this race than non-distance winners. |
Trends analysis: A good starting point is to look for horses that have won at least once of their last six starts as they have provided 90% of the winners from under 70% of the total runners. 4yos have a good record as do horses that have a short break of between 10 and 14 days. Horses being raised in class have done well also proving profitable.
