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Archive for May, 2011

10 year trends for Sandown – Thursday evening

Thursday, May 26th, 2011 at 12:27 pm  
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10 year trends for tonight’s racing

7.40 Sandown – Brigadier Gerard Stakes– 1m 2f (Group 3) 4yo+

 

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 5 of the last 10 winners have been either 3rd or 4th favourite.
Price: 6 of the last 10 winners have been priced between 7/2 and 7/1.
Position LTO: 6 of the 10 winners finished first or second LTO.
Recent win: 9 of the 10 winners won at least one race in their last four starts.
Race type LTO: All of the last 10 winners raced at class 1 level LTO.
Time off track: Horses that have been off the track for 6 weeks or less have provided 9 of the last 10 winners.
Running style: 7 of the last 10 winners raced close to or up with the pace.

 

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): 1 wins from 11 for a loss of £8.75 (ROI -79.5%).
Price: Horses priced 22/1 or bigger have produced 0 winners and 0 placed runners from 16 qualifiers.
Distance  LTO: Horses that raced over 1m4f or more LTO have provided 0 winners from 18.

 

GENERAL STATS

Age: 4yos have provided 6 winners from 43 (SR 14%); 5yos have provided 1 winner from 17 (SR 5.9%); 6yos+ have provided 3 winners from 18 (SR 16.7%).

 

Trends analysis: The best starting point is to look for horses that raced in Class 1 company LTO. They have provided most of the runners but they have provided all the winners. Next it is logical to focus on horses that have won at least once in their last four starts. Favourites have a poor record, while horses 3rd and 4th in the betting have done well. True outsiders have a poor record with 0 wins and 0 places for horses priced 22/1 or bigger from 16 runners. In terms of age 5yos have struggled – not really sure why this has been the case.

 

7.05Sandown Henry II Stakes – 2m 78yds (Group2) 4yo+

 

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: Second favourites have provided 4 of the 10 winners. Hence they have proved to be good value producing a profit of £12.25 (ROI +136.1%).
Price: Horses priced between 12/1 and 20/1 have provided 4 winners for a profit of £44.00 (ROI +183.3%).
Race type LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners raced in a either a Group 2 or Group 3 contest LTO.  
Time off track: Horses that have been off the track for 7 months or more have provided 4 winners from 17 for a profit of £34.00 (ROI +220%).
Distance LTO: Horses that raced over 1m5f-1m6f LTO have provided half the winners for a profit of £23.00 (ROI +56.1%).
Jockeys: Frankie Dettori has a good record in the race having won it 3 times from 9 rides.

 

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): 0 wins from 11.
Race type LTO: Horses that raced in a handicap LTO have provided 0 winners and 1 placed horse from 13.
Beaten distance LTO: Horses that were beaten by 20 lengths or more LTO have provided 0 winners from 16.

 

GENERAL STATS

Age: 4yos have provided 4 winners from 33 runners (SR 12.1%); 5yos have provided 1 winner from 19 (SR 5.3%); 6yos have provided 3 winners from 13 (SR 23.1%); 7yos+ have provided 2 winners from 30 (SR 6.7%).

 

Trends analysis: Favourites have a dreadful recent record, with the value lying with second favourites, or with horses priced 12/1 to 20/1. It has been an advantage to have run in Group 2 or 3 company LTO, while a long break has also tended to be a positive. Frankie Dettori has a good record in the race and his three winners have been for different trainers. In terms of  age there is no discernable pattern.

 

HAYDOCK (SATURDAY) -10 YEAR BIG RACE TRENDS

Saturday, May 21st, 2011 at 9:39 am  
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The trends and statistics are based on the last 10 years. All profits and losses are quoted using £1 win stakes. ROI stands for return on investment; LTO stands for last time out; SR stands for strike rate.

2.30 Silver Bowl – 1 mile handicap (3yo, class 2) – Haydock

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): 4 wins from 11 for a profit of £3.33 (ROI +30.3%).
Market: All of the last 10 races have been won by horses from the top 3 of the betting.
Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 6/1 or shorter.
Position LTO: 7 of the last 15 winners finished 1st or 2nd LTO.
Career starts: Horses that had raced just 3 times previously in their careers have won 6 of the last 10 races from only 25 runners.
Trainers: Sir Michael Stoute and Gerald Butler have saddled 2 winners each.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 13/2 or bigger have produced 0 wins from 117 runners.
Days since last run: Horses that have been off the track for 2 weeks or less have provided just 2 winners from 49 for a loss of £37.50 (ROI -76.5%).
Beaten distance LTO: Horses that were beaten 4 or more lengths LTO have provided just 2 winners from 53 for a loss of £44.17 (ROI -83.3%).
Career starts: Horses that have raced 5 times or more in their careers have won just 2 races from 94 qualifiers for a loss of £84.67 (ROI -90.1%).

GENERAL STATS

Sex of horse: Male runners have provided 9 winners from 123 (SR 7.3%); female runners have provided 1 winner from 17 (SR 5.9%).
Trends analysis: It has been best to focus on the top 3 of the betting which is surprising given the fact that this is a handicap and that the average number of runners has been 14. A decent run LTO is a plus, but a very recent run (within 2 weeks) is not. Finally lightly raced horses that have run 3 times in their careers have an excellent record – 60% of winners from just 18% of the total number of runners.

3.00 Temple Stakes – 5f (3yo+, Group 2) – Haydock

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): 4 wins from 14 for a small profit of £1.08 (ROI +7.7%).
Market: 8 of the last 10 winners came from the top 4 in the betting.
Recent wins: 9 of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last four starts.
Price: 8 of the last 10 winners have been priced 15/2 or shorter.
Course LTO: Horses that raced at Newmarket LTO have provided 5 of the last 10 winners.
Position LTO: Horses that finished in the first 4 LTO have provided 8 of the last 10 winners.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Beaten distance LTO: Horses that were beaten 3 or more lengths LTO have provided just 1 winner from 40.

GENERAL STATS

Sex: Fillies and mares have won 5 races from 25 (SR 20.0%); colts and geldings have won 5 races from 78 runners (SR 6.4%).
Days since last run: Horses that have been off the track for 4 weeks or less have won 6 races from 70 (SR 8.6%); horses off the track for more than 4 weeks have won 4 races from 33 (SR 12.1%).
Age: 3 year olds have provided 2 winners from 17 (SR 11.8%); 4 year olds have provided 3 winners from 20 (SR 15.0%); 5 year olds have provided 3 winners from 26 (SR 11.5%); 6 year old plus have provided 2 winners from 40 (SR 5.0%).
Trends analysis: A good starting point is to look for horses that have won at least once in their last four starts. From there, preference would be for horses priced 15/2 and shorter as generally the market has held sway. Females have outperformed their male counterparts with the same number of winners from less than half of the runners. Age wise it looks best to avoid horses aged 6 or older, while horses beaten by 3 lengths or more on their most recent start also look worth swerving.

3.30 Betfred The Bonus King Stakes – 6f (3yo+, Listed) – Haydock

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 8 of the last 10 winners came from the top 4 in the betting.
Market LTO: Horses that were first or second favourite LTO have produced 5 winners from 26 for a profit of £10.90 (ROI +41.9%).
Price: 9 of the last 10 winners have been priced 11/1 or lower.
Career runs: 8 of the last 10 winners had raced less than 10 times in their careers.
Position LTO: Horses that won LTO have provided 4 winners from just 13 qualifiers for a profit of £22.00 (ROI +169.2%).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 12/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 59 qualifiers for a loss of £42.00 (ROI -71.2%).
Days since last run: Horses that have been off the track for 2 weeks or less have provided just 1 winner from 37 for a loss of £28.00 (ROI -75.7%).
Beaten distance LTO: Horses that were beaten 3 or more lengths LTO have provided just 3 winners from 65 for a loss of £39.10 (ROI -60.2%).
Race type LTO: Horses that raced in a handicap LTO have provided 0 winners from 26 (only 3 have placed).
Headgear: Horses wearing any type of headgear (blinkers, visor, hood, tongue tie, cheekpieces) have provided 0 winners from 18.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 3 wins from 10 for a small loss of £1.35 (ROI -13.5%).
Age: 3 year olds have provided 5 winners from 49 (SR 11.1%); 4 year olds have provided 3 winners from 32 (SR 9.4%); 5 year olds have provided 2 winners from 20 (SR 10%); 6 year old plus have provided 0 winners from 10 (SR 0%).
Trends analysis: The market has been a fairly good guide with only 1 winner from 59 priced 12/1 or bigger. It is also worth focusing on more lightly raced runners – 80% of the winners have had less than 10 career starts and they have provided under half of the total runners in the race. LTO winners are rare but they have won 40% of the races so any qualifier would require close scrutiny. There are plenty of negatives – horses returning to the track within 2 weeks have performed poorly as have horses with headgear and horses that ran in a handicap LTO.

Updated Lays Spreadsheet

Wednesday, May 11th, 2011 at 5:33 pm  
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Updated Lays Spreadsheet

I have just updated the long term spreadsheet for the lays.
It includes results from when Betfair first introduced BSP untill the end of yesterday.

See http://www.racingtrends.co.uk/download/rt-lays.xls

For those of you who might be interested in following them my own quick thoughts are as follows.

The first decision branch you should decide on for your own personal strategy
might be the method of staking or bank management.

With the fixed liability approach for example you lose no more laying a winning
10/1 horse than you would do a winning even money horse.

As such paying heed to a maximum BSP cut of limit is of less critical importance.

If however you go down the route of accepting from a Betfair user a fixed stake
irrespective of what odds are being laid , then put much more focus on bank protection
from a rogue big priced winner by adopting in your strategy a maximum BSP limit.
MAX BSP can be input into Betfair when you make a lay.

Bank staking percentages etc.
To some degree these are a measure of your personal outlook on aggression versus protection.
The spreadsheet is set at a default 5% across the board but those are not the values to churn out maximum past bank growth.
Optimum staking % values are actually more aggressive than 5% and in the spreadsheet at least will give
much bigger profit values than the default settings do. These optimum % values are noted in the spreadsheet for your info.

My own personal call on such things however is to assume the future will be worse than the past and in staking terms that means being a little
less aggressive than a historic spreadsheet suggests.
Some of you with bigger cajones than my good self however might choose to move more towards the optimum % values
based on 3000 odd past selections and accept a more up and down roller coaster ride of bank ups and downs.

Increased aggression is also likely more acceptable on a small sacrificial bank.
eg Say for example you have £100 you want to bet up aggressively to £500 or £1000 and then perhaps cash out and reset.
One completion of series will pay for several total busts.
Total busting of course becomes more likely the more aggressive you stake.

Whether betting or laying staking aggression goes beyond mathematical theory.
How you react as a human ( and we are all different ) plays a key role as well.

Note that the selections produce good long term profits laying to place as well as to win.
My suggestion if you plan to attack them on both fronts is to consider the use of two separate banks.
One for win. One for place.
BSP price limits can be pre set for each individually.
Similar with % bank etc.
You will most likely also note long odds horses you might choose to duck laying to win
but might be happy to take on for a place at shorter odds.

Anyhow enough for now.
The spreadsheet is worth examination and will permit you to play with settings to research something to suit yourself personally.

As Dave mentioned earlier it would be good to hear your own thoughts and ideas on how best to take advantage
of all the research he has done into these lay selections.

Best wishes
Mick
Site Admin

www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Positive trainer stats for Friday

Friday, May 6th, 2011 at 12:13 pm  
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POSITIVE STATS – (TRAINER / SIRE / DRAW)

Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

5.20 Ascot – Above All **: W Haggas – horses off track for 11+ weeks; top 3 of the betting SR 36%; ROI +42% (win & pl 60%)

5.50 Ascot – Coeus **: Sir M Prescott – May to August; handicaps; must be top 5 of the betting; 21 days or less off the traack; SR 42%; ROI +23% (win & pl 67%)

6.25 Ascot – Parvana: W Haggas turf races only; 3yos first run of the season in a maiden race; (not career debut) SR 31% ROI +62% (win & pl 55%)

7.00 Ascot – Karuga **: R Hannon – 2yo maidens in April / May; must be top 2 of the betting SR 38.3% ROI +26% (win & pl 69%)

7.00 Ascot – Miss Astragal **: R Hannon – 2yo maidens in April / May; must be top 2 of the betting SR 38.3% ROI +26% (win & pl 69%)

8.10 Ascot – Taajub **: W Haggas – horses off track for 11+ weeks; top 3 of the betting SR 36%; ROI +42% (win & pl 60%)

2.55 Chester – Harris Tweed **: W Haggas – horses off track for 11+ weeks; top 3 of the betting SR 36%; ROI +42% (win & pl 60%)

4.05 Chester – Elmaam: W Haggas turf races only; 3yos first run of the season in a maiden race; (not career debut) SR 31% ROI +62% (win & pl 55%)

1.55 Nottingham – Fairy Moss **: R Hannon – 2yo maidens in April / May; must be top 2 of the betting SR 38.3% ROI +26% (win & pl 69%)

3.05 Nottingham – Birdwatcher: M Johnston – 3yos in turf handicaps of 1m4f+; class 3 or lower; SR 21% ROI +38% (win & pl 43%)

7.50 Ripon – Pearl Storm: W Haggas turf races only; 3yos first run of the season in a maiden race; (not career debut) SR 31% ROI +62% (win & pl 55%)

Big race 10 year trends for Chester (Weds)

Wednesday, May 4th, 2011 at 10:59 am  
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Weds 2.20 Chester – Cheshire Oaks – Listed (1m 3½f) 3yo fillies

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites(inc. joints): 7 wins from 11 for a profit of £11.75 (ROI +106.8%).
Draw: 8 of the last 10 winners have been drawn in the bottom 4 stalls.
Career runs: All of the last 10 winners have raced 4 or fewer times in their careers.
Race type LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners ran in a maiden LTO.
Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd LTO.
Price LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners were priced 5/2 or shorter LTO.
Trainers: 2 wins each for Aidan O’Brien and Marcus Tregoning.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 10/1 or bigger have produced just 1 winner from 40 qualifiers for a loss of £25.00 (ROI -62.5%).
Days off track: Horses returning to the track after a break of 6 weeks or more have produced just 1 winner from 33 for a loss of £29.75 (ROI -90.2%).
Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten 4 lengths or more LTO have provided just 1 winner from 25 for a loss of £20.50 (ROI -82.0%).
Course LTO: Horses that raced at Newmarket LTO have provided 0 winners from 16.
Draw: Horses drawn 7 or higher have provided 0 winners from 23.

GENERAL STATS

Distance LTO: Horses that raced over 10f or more LTO have provided 6 winners from 32 (SR 18.8%); horses that raced over 9f or less LTO have provided 4 winners from 50 (SR 8.0%).
Trends analysis: Some solid trends here – favourites have an excellent record, while the draw has been important with 8 of the 10 winners drawn 4 or lower. One should eliminate any horse that has run more than 4 times in their career and take note of any runners that ran in a maiden LTO. LTO form has been important with LTO winners and runners up providing 80% of the winners.

Weds 3.30 Chester – Stellar Group  handicap class 2 (5f) 4yo+

POSITIVE TRENDS

Draw: The six lowest drawn horses have won 9 of the last 10 races. These runners have made up 44% of all the runners, but produced 90% of the winners.
Market: Horses 3rd to 6th in the betting have provided 6 winners. Backing all such qualifiers would have produced a profit of £18.00 (ROI +42.9%).
Price: 9 of the last 11 winners have been priced between 11/2 and 16/1.
Running style: 8 of the last 10 winners raced up with or close to the pace, with 5 runners “making all”.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): 1 win from 11 for a loss of £7.25 (ROI -65.9%).
Draw: There have been 57 horses drawn 9 or higher and all have lost. Indeed only 1 of them has managed to place.
Position LTO: 15 horses have come into the race having won LTO but all have been beaten.
Market LTO: Horses from the top 4 of the betting LTO have 0 winners from 46.
Price: Horses priced 20/1 or bigger have produced 0 wins from 53 runners.
Class LTO: 17 horses raced in class 4 or lower LTO and all have lost.

GENERAL STATS

Age: 4yos have won 2 races from 36 qualifiers (SR 5.6%) 5yos have won 3 races from 39 qualifiers (SR 7.7%); 6yos have won 2 races from 28 (SR 7.1%); 7yo+ have won 3 from 34 (SR 8.8%).

Trends analysis: This race is a race with some good trends both positive and negative. The draw at Chester is very well documented, but over 5f it is extremely important and the 6 lowest draws have dominated this contest over the past 10 years. Hence you need to focus on these draws ideally with a horse that is likely to lead or race very close to the pace. Price wise, outsiders priced 20/1 or bigger have a poor record, while at the other end of the spectrum favourites have performed below expectations. In terms of age there seems no clear bias.