BIG RACE TRENDS FOR NEWMARKET
Saturday 3.10 Newmarket – 2000 Guineas – 1m Group 1 (3yo)
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: 5 of the last 10 winners came from second to fourth in the betting. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £10.50 (ROI +33.9%). |
| Last time out winners: 8 of the last 10 winners won LTO. |
| Price: 7 of the last 10 winners have been priced between 9/2 and 11/1. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £23.50 (ROI +60.3%). |
| Seasonal debut: 7 of the last 10 winners were making their seasonal debut. |
| Price LTO: All of the 10 winners were priced 13/2 or shorter LTO (8 of the 10 were priced 100/30 or shorter). |
| Draw: The draw figures have now been reversed so the lowest draws are now best (the lowest 6 draws providing 6 of the last 10 winners). |
| Trainers: Aidan O’Brien has won the race 4 times albeit from 25 runners. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Favourites: 1 wins from 10 for a loss of £7.50 (ROI -75%). |
| Breeding: American breds have provided just 1 winner and 1 placed from 39 runners. |
| Front runners: 15 horses have led early or disputed the lead early and all have been beaten. |
| Position LTO: Horses that finished 2nd or worse LTO have provided just 2 winners from 106 runners for a loss of £77.50 (ROI -73.1%). |
| Price: Horses priced 40/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 74 runners (4 placed). |
GENERAL STATS
| Course winners: Course winners have won 3 races from 64 (SR 4.7%); non course winners have won 7 races from 116 (SR 6%). |
| Trends analysis: In general this has been a market driven race although favourites have had a very poor record over the past 10 years (this is true if you go back 20 years). Horses 2nd to 4th in the betting have proved the most successful and indeed profitable. Last time out winners have a good record and you should focus on these runners – they have won 80% of the races from around 40% of the total runners. Meanwhile horses making their seasonal debut are around 3 times more likely to win than horses that have already run this year (wins to runs ratio). American breds have a poor record and look best avoided. |
Saturday 3.45 Newmarket – Palace House Stakes – 5f Group 3 (3yo+)
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 4 wins from 10 for a profit of £1.50 (ROI +12.5%). |
| Market position: 7 of the last 10 winners came from the top 4 of the betting. |
| Price: Horses priced 15/2 or shorter have produced 8 of the last 10 winners. |
| Position LTO: Horses that won LTO have provided 6 of the last 10 winners. That equates to 60% of the races from which they have provided just 27% of the total runners. |
| Class LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners raced in a class 1 contest (Listed or Group) LTO. |
| Trainers: Henry Candy has saddled 2 winners from just 3 runners (Kyllachy and Amour Propre). |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Race LTO: Horses that raced in a handicap LTO have provided just 1 winner from 24 for a loss of £21.00 (ROI -87.5%). |
| Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten by more than 3 lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 46 qualifiers. |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 3yos have won 3 races from 15 qualifiers (SR 20%); 4yos have won 1 race from 36 qualifiers (SR 2.8%); 5yos have won 5 races from 29 qualifiers (SR 17.2%); 6yos+ have won 1 race from 52 qualifiers (SR 1.9%). |
| Course LTO: Horses that raced at Newmarket or Ascot LTO have provided 6 winners from 48 (SR 12.5%); horses that raced at all other courses have provided 4 winners from 84 (SR 4.8%). |
| Sex of horse: Male runners have won 9 races from 116 runners (SR 7.8%); female runners have won 1 race from 16 (SR 6.3%). |
| Trends analysis: Horses priced 15/2 or shorter in the betting is a potential starting point for your analysis with preference for LTO winners. It looks best to ignore horses that were beaten by more than 3 lengths LTO and any horse that ran in a handicap LTO. Another negative involves horses aged 6 or older – they have a poor record. |
Sunday 3.15 Newmarket – 1000 Guineas – 1m Group 1 (3yo)
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 3 wins from 10 for a profit of £1.50 (ROI +15%). |
| Market: All of the last 10 winners came from the top 7 in the betting. |
| Price: 6 of the last 10 winners have been priced between 10/1 and 20/1. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £33.00 (ROI +63.5%). |
| Position LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners won LTO. |
| Class LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners raced in a Group race LTO. |
| Course LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners raced LTO at Newmarket. |
| Seasonal debut: 8 of the last 10 winners were making their seasonal debut. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Market position: Horses 8th or bigger in the betting market have provided 0 winners from 91 runners. |
| Price: Horses priced 25/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 71 runners. |
| Course LTO: Horses that raced at Newbury LTO have provided 0 winners from 30 (2 placed). |
| Distance beaten LTO: Horses that were beaten more than a length LTO have provided just 1 winner from 56. |
GENERAL STATS
| Distance LTO: Horses that raced over 6f LTO have won 4 races from 28 (SR 14.3%); horses that raced over 7f LTO have won 5 races from 94 (SR 5.3%); horses that raced over 1 mile or more LTO have won 1 race from 45 (SR 2.2%). |
| Trends analysis: In general the market has been a fairly good guide with favourites actually showing a profit. Indeed, all of the last 10 winners have been from the top 7 in the betting. LTO winners have done well in the recent past, while it has been a positive to have run in Group company LTO. Runners who raced at Newmarket LTO also have a decent record in comparison to the other tracks combined. |

