National Hunt Favourites who failed to finish – how do they perform next time out?

Thursday, February 24th, 2011 at 8:43 am

National Hunt Favourites who failed to finish – how do they perform next time out?

Having researched and written around 500 articles in the past few years, I am going to revisit an area I explored a few years ago. I will be looking into horses that were favourites last time out in a National Hunt race, but failed to finish the course. Hence they either fell, were unseated, pulled up, refused to race etc.

The data for this piece was collected from the beginning of 2002. All profits and losses have been calculated to £1 level stakes.

Let us firstly look at the overall statistics – so all horses in their next race that had in their most recent race started favourite, but failed to finish:

Bets 3190

Wins 506

Strike rate 15.9%

Profit / loss –£402.85

ROI –12.6%

A loss of 12.6% is not a bad starting point, especially as this could improved upon using Betfair, Betfair SP or BOG (Best Odds Guaranteed). Comparing a loss of 12% to the figure for ALL NH beaten favourites LTO is interesting, as the overall figure for beaten favs is around –14%. Therefore, beaten favourites that failed to finish LTO are slightly better investments than your ‘average’ beaten favourite.

Let us breakdown the races LTO into chases, hurdle races and bumpers for favourites that failed to complete. The figures for their next run make interesting reading:

Race type LTO	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate%	Profit / loss	ROI%
Chase	340	2050	16.6	-£89.31	-4.4
Hurdle	163	1121	14.5	-£315.64	-28.2
NHF	3	19	15.8	+£2.10	+11.1

Not surprisingly there were very few bumper favourites that failed to finish last time out. The interesting comparison is with the non-finishers in chases and hurdle races last time. Horses that failed to complete the course in a chase last time out have lost just 4.4% if backing all such runners on their next start. Last time favourites in hurdle races that failed to finish look laying potential, or at the very least eliminated for win betting purposes.

With over 2000 qualifiers from LTO chases, it seemed likely to me that we may be able to push this into profit using some other logical filters. For the rest of the article I will focusing solely on the LTO chase qualifiers as they look to have the best potential in terms of profitable angles. I decided to see starting price next time out made any difference:

Price	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate%	Profit / loss	ROI%
Evens or less	43	76	55.6	-£6.75	-8.9
11/10 – 2/1	58	178	32.6	-£24.38	-13.7
9/4 – 7/2	78	350	22.3	-£48.20	-13.8
4/1 – 11/2	62	396	15.7	-£45.50	-11.5
6/1 – 9/1	65	433	15.0	+£104.50	+24.1
19/2 – 16/1	27	383	7.0	-£15.00	-3.9
18/1+	7	234	3.0	-£54.00	-23.1

Looking at the prices, the stats seem to suggest to look for horses that are priced between 6/1 and 9/1 in their next race. In fact from 6/1 to 16/1 the results have been much better than one would expect.

The next factor I decided to look at was age:

Age	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate	Profit / loss	ROI
4	2	15	13.3	-£11.47	-76.5
5	29	119	24.4	+£29.88	+25.1
6	65	305	21.3	+£40.38	+13.2
7	80	510	15.7	-£87.16	-17.1
8	75	446	16.8	+£13.90	+3.1
9	47	325	14.5	+£0.40	+0.1
10	28	194	14.4	-£19.10	-9.9
11+	14	136	10.3	-£56.14	-41.3

Younger horses (aged 5 to 6) have the best strike rate and they have combined to make a profit. At the other end of the age scale, it seems best to avoid horses aged 11 or older. Their strike rate is much poorer at roughly 1 win in 10, with losses of over 40%.

Next stop for the LTO Chase runners – days off the course since that losing run when favourite:

Days off track	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate	Profit / loss	ROI
0-7	25	121	20.7	-£26.31	-21.7
8-14	46	302	15.2	-£101.77	-33.7
15-21	47	294	16.0	-£47.46	-16.1
22-49	107	596	18.0	+£70.16	+11.8
50-99	42	246	17.1	+£61.81	+25.1
100+	73	491	14.9	-£45.74	-9.3

This is very interesting – horses that return to the track fairly quickly (21 days or less) do quite poorly. Conversely, combining all horses off the track for more than 3 weeks would have actually yielded a profit of £86.24.

My next area of research was to look at the LTO chase splitting into more specific race types:

LTO Race	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate	Profit / loss	ROI
Handicap	202	1411	14.3	-£110.84	-7.9
Non handicap	138	639	21.6	+£21.53	+3.4
Maiden chase	3	33	9.1	-£22.13	-67.1
Novice chase	94	555	16.9	-£91.07	-16.4
Graded/Listed chase	28	122	23.0	+£6.05	+5.0

Horses that raced in Class 1 company LTO (Graded/Listed events) produced a small profit; as did ALL non handicap races. Horses that were favourite LTO and failed to finish in a Novice Chase have under-performed compared with the overall figures.

So what can be gleaned from this research? What I would say is that beaten favourites last time out that failed to finish in a chase, cannot be dismissed from calculations next time out. Using the other variables / filters has helped to pinpoint profitable areas so there should be some value when finding horses that match the ‘positives’.

For the system players out there you may want to consider this system which uses some of the positive factors noted:

Rules:

1. LTO favourite in a chase

2. Failed to finish LTO

3. Days since last run 22 to 99

4. Age 5yo to 9yo

5. Raced in Non handicap LTO

The results for this ‘system’ would have produced the following results:

Bets 218

Wins 51

Strike rate 23.4%

Profit +£56.09

ROI +25.7%

Hence a very decent return on investment, although an average of 25 qualifiers per year is likely to put many punters off.

Saturday – big race trends

Saturday, February 19th, 2011 at 8:48 am

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Here are 10 year trends for three big races on Saturday.

The trends and statistics are based on the last 10 renewals. All profits and losses are quoted using £1 level stakes; ROI stands for return on investment, SR for strike rate.

1.50 Ascot – Reynoldstown Chase – 3m ½f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites: There have been 5 winning favourites from 10.

Market: There were 3 winning second favourites, so 8 of the last 10 winners came from the top 2 in the market.

Price: Horses priced 9/2 or shorter have produced 9 of the last 10 winners.

LTO winners: 9 of the last 10 winners won last time out. Backing all 22 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £7.05 (ROI +32%).

LTO market position: 8 of the last 10 winners were either favourite or second favourite LTO.

Career starts: Horses with 11 career starts or less have provided 9 of the last 10 winners. Horses who have raced 3 times or less over fences (previous to this race) have won 8 of the last 10.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 5/1 or bigger have produced just 1 winner from 29 qualifiers for a loss of £19.50 (ROI -67.2%).

Position LTO: Horses that finished 2^nd or worse last time out have produced just 1 winner from 30 for a loss of £26.00 (ROI -86.7%).

GENERAL STATS

Age: 5 year olds have produced 1 winner from 2 qualifiers (SR 50.0%); 6 year olds

have produced 4 winners from 13 qualifiers (SR 30.8%); 7 year olds have produced

5 winners from 19 qualifiers (SR 26.3%); 8 year olds plus have produced 0 winners

from 18 qualifiers (SR 0%).

Trends analysis: the Reynoldstown offers trends followers some strong positive pointers. 9 of the last 10 winners have been priced 9/2 or shorter so this is a definite starting point, with favourites given the closest scrutiny as they have won half of the races. LTO winners have an excellent record and look for horses that have had no more than 3 runs over fences as they have won 80% of the races from 55% of the total runners. In terms of age it looks best to focus on those horses aged 7 or younger.

2.45 Haydock – Totescoop6 (Rendlesham) Hurdle – 3m

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites: There have been 5 winning favourites from 10 qualifiers showing a

profit of £1.48 (ROI +14.8%).

Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first four LTO.

Favourites LTO: There have only been 6 horses that started favourite LTO but 4 of them have gone on to win this race.

Class LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners raced in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 contest LTO.

Course last time out: 8 of the last 10 winners raced LTO at either Cheltenham, Ascot or Haydock.

Breeding: French breds have won 6 of the races from just 20 runners although profits have been modest at £2.48 (ROI +12.2%).

Trainers: Francois Doumen has won the race 3 times since 2002.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Breeding: Just 2 wins from 23 for British bred runners showing losses of £12.00 (ROI -52.2%).

GENERAL STATS

Age: 5 year olds have produced 0 winners from 6 qualifiers (SR 0%); 6 year olds have produced 2 winners from 12 qualifiers (SR 16.7%); 7 year olds have produced 4 winners from 13 qualifiers (SR 30.8%); 8 year olds have won 1 from 12 qualifiers (SR 8.3%); 9 year olds plus have won 3 from 21 qualifiers (SR 14.3%).

Trends analysis: this is a race where the positive trends tend to dominate. The market has been a fairly good guide to this race over recent years with favourites winning 5 of the last 9 races. A decent run LTO has been a plus, as has racing in Grade 1 or 2 company LTO. French breds have a good record as does trainer Francois Doumen. In terms of age there are no clear patterns.

3.00 Ascot – Betfair Chase – 2m 5½f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites: There have been 5 winning favourites from 10 for a profit of £1.54 (ROI +15.4%).

Price: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 15/2 or shorter.

Last run: 6 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for at least 7 weeks.

Course last time out: 8 of the last 10 winners raced LTO at either Cheltenham, Ascot or Kempton.

Trainers: the Pipe stable won the race four times between 2002 and 2006. No successes however, since David Pipe has taken over from his father.

LTO performance: 8 horses came into the race having failed to complete the course LTO, but 3 have gone onto win.

Distance LTO: Horses that raced over 3 miles or more LTO have won 5 of the renewals from just 21 runners for a profit of £5.16 (ROI +24.6%).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 8/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 23.

LTO Price: Horses priced 10/1 or bigger on their most recent run have provided 0 winners from 24.

GENERAL STATS

Age: 6 and 7 year olds have produced 0 winners from 11 qualifiers (SR 0%); 8 year

olds have produced 6 winners from 17 qualifiers (SR 35.3%); 9 year olds have produced 1 winner from 11 qualifiers (SR 9.1%); 10 year olds have produced

1 winner from 14 qualifiers (SR 7.1%); 11 year olds plus have produced 2 winners

from 10 qualifiers (SR 20%).

Trends analysis: this has been a market driven race in recent years thanks to 5 winning favourites and 9 winners priced 15/2 or shorter. A recent run is not necessarily a plus as 6 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for at least 7 weeks. A LTO run at either Cheltenham, Ascot or Kempton has been a positive, while in terms of age 8 year olds have performed way above expectations.