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Archive for November, 2010

Racing Trends Saturday flat message for FREE!

Saturday, November 27th, 2010 at 1:39 pm  
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COURSE FAVOURITE STATS FLAT – this is a section looking at the stats for favourites at courses in certain race types

Kempton aw favourites

Race type Wins Bets SR (%) Profit ROI (%) Race Times
2yo maidens 84 210 40.0 +£5.97 +2.8 4.20
3yo+ maidens 28 77 36.4 -£10.08 -13.1 4.50
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 283 1169 24.2 -£132.40 -11.3 2.10, 5.20

Wolverhampton aw favourites

Race type Wins Bets SR (%) Profit ROI (%) Race Times
2yo maidens 125 321 38.9 -£27.66 -8.6 5.50, 7.50, 8.20
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 526 2163 24.3 -£323.71 -15.0 6.50, 8.50, 9.20

FAVOURITE STATS – this is a section looking at the stats for favourites certain race types. These race types occur less often so the course favourite stats for such races would have fairly small samples – hence they have been grouped together to give you an overview.

Race type Wins Bets SR Profit ROI Race Times
2yo nurseries 379 1401 27.1 -£89.22 -6.4 Kemp 2.40
3yo+ Listed 191 605 31.6 -£76.99 -12.7 Kemp 3.15, Kemp 3.50
3yo+/4yo+ sellers 321 1018 31.5 +£29.07 +2.9 Wolv 6.20, Wolv 7.20

DRAW SECTION – the stats are collated from studying 10+ runner handicaps. Each race is split into three – a top third of the draw, a middle third of the draw and a bottom third of the draw.

Course & distance (time) Bottom third win % Middle third win% Top third win%
Kempton aw 1m (5.20) 32 36 32
Wolverhampton aw 7f (8.50, 9.20) 41 34 26

Wolverhampton aw 7f (8.50, 9.20) low draws have a slight advantage although it is not a strong enough bias to be fully confident in.

POSITIVE STATS – (TRAINER / SIRE / DRAW)

Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

2.10    Kempton – Colour Scheme **: B Meehan on aw – November to March; must be top 2 in the betting; SR 38.2%; ROI +35.5%

4.50    Kempton – Countenance Divine **: B Hills – horse made losing debut at Newmarket LTO; must be top two of the betting this time; SR 45.6%; ROI +29%

4.50    Kempton – Countenance Divine: Positive sire stats – Pivotal aged 5 or younger racing 1 mile or less SR 14.9%; ROI +14.1%

4.50    Kempton – Dashwood: Positive sire stats – Pivotal aged 5 or younger racing 1 mile or less SR 14.9%; ROI +14.1%

4.50    Kempton – Majestic Bright: Positive sire stats – Pivotal aged 5 or younger racing 1 mile or less SR 14.9%; ROI +14.1%

6.20    Wolverhampton – Too Late Jones **: M Magnusson – all runners top 3 in betting SR 27.2%; ROI +37.9%

7.50    Wolverhampton – School For Scandal **: M Johnston – 2yo males racing at 7f or more in non handicaps; top 3 of the betting SR 35.4%; ROI +22.7%

7.50    Wolverhampton – School For Scandal: Positive sire stats – Pivotal aged 5 or younger racing 1 mile or less SR 14.9%; ROI +14.1%

8.50    Wolverhampton – Stargazing **: B Meehan on aw – November to March; must be top 2 in the betting; SR 38.2%; ROI +35.5%

NEGATIVE STATS – Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

7.20    Wolverhampton – Kirkby’s Gem: Poor trainer stat – A Berry on all weather; off track for more than 6 weeks; SR 0.9%; ROI -91.7%

7.50    Wolverhampton – Pyrenean: Poor sire stat – Mull of Kintyre females on the all weather SR 1.1%; ROI -94.4%

POOR VALUE LAST TIME OUT WINNER – The idea is to find horses that won LTO that perform poorly in comparison to all LTO winners. The stats for all LTO winners in Flat races the strike rate (SR) is 16.2% and losses are -16.7%. These are my benchmarks.

6.50    Wolverhampton – Kimberley Downs: Poor LTO 1st stat – won LTO after break of 7 days or less; off track for 15+ days this time; aged 4+; SR 10.9%; ROI -40%

PACE INFORMATION

Course Leaders % (win) Prominent / chased leaders  % (win) Hold up / behind  % (win)
Kempton aw 1m non handicap (3.15, 4.50) 1.6 1.4 0.6
Kempton aw 6f non handicap (4.20) 1.5 1.3 0.7
Kempton aw 1m handicap (5.20) 1.6 1.1 0.8
Wolverhampton aw 7f non handicap (7.50, 8.20) 2.0 1.3 0.6
Wolverhampton aw 7f handicap (8.50, 9.20) 1.5 1.0 0.9

Kempton aw 1m handicap (5.20) – Front runners do best but the bias is not strong enough to ‘play’ pre race.

Born to Excel couls be some trading value.

Wolverhampton aw 7f non handicap (7.50/8.20) – Front runners do best and this is a potential “in running” play on the early leader. However, you will have to be quick on the keyboard.

Horses mentioned in 2 or more sections –

4.50    Kempton – Countenance Divine (must be top 2 of the betting to qualify)

7.50    Wolverhampton – School For Scandal (must be top 3 of the betting to qualify)

RECENT TRAINER FORM – FLAT (last 14 days exc. Friday) – in strike rate order

Name Wins Runs Strike rate (%) Placed Win & Placed Win & Placed % Engagements
M Madgwick 1 1 100.0 0 1 100.0 Kemp 5.20
C E Brittain 1 2 50.0 1 2 100.0 Kemp 3.50
G A Swinbank 1 2 50.0 0 1 50.0 Wolv 7.50
P W Hiatt 1 2 50.0 0 1 50.0 Kemp 5.20
W G M Turner 3 6 50.0 0 3 50.0 Wolv 8.50
G A Butler 2 5 40.0 1 3 60.0 Kemp 2.10, Kemp 3.15
M Herrington 1 3 33.3 0 1 33.3 Wolv 9.20
M Murphy 1 3 33.3 1 2 66.7 Kemp 3.15
Mrs C A Dunnett 1 3 33.3 0 1 33.3 Wolv 8.50
T Keddy 1 3 33.3 0 1 33.3 Kemp 5.20
D Nicholls 3 11 27.3 3 6 54.5 Kemp 2.40, Wolv 6.20
C R Dore 2 8 25.0 1 3 37.5 Kemp 5.20, Wolv 6.50, Wolv 6.50
D Carroll 1 4 25.0 0 1 25.0 Kemp 2.10
George Baker 3 12 25.0 0 3 25.0 Wolv 6.20, Wolv 7.50
Ian Williams 1 4 25.0 1 2 50.0 Kemp 3.50
J A Osborne 1 4 25.0 2 3 75.0 Kemp 2.10, Wolv 7.50
M A Jarvis 1 4 25.0 0 1 25.0 Kemp 3.50, Kemp 4.20
R M H Cowell 2 8 25.0 0 2 25.0 Kemp 2.40, Wolv 8.20
G Prodromou 1 5 20.0 1 2 40.0 Kemp 2.40
I W McInnes 1 5 20.0 0 1 20.0 Wolv 6.20, Wolv 8.50
M P Tregoning 1 5 20.0 2 3 60.0 Kemp 4.20, Kemp 4.50
R Hollinshead 2 11 18.2 2 4 36.4 Wolv 5.50, Wolv 6.20, Wolv 6.50, Wolv 8.50
A M Balding 1 6 16.7 2 3 50.0 Kemp 3.50, Kemp 4.20, Kemp 5.20
P M Phelan 2 12 16.7 4 6 50.0 Kemp 2.40
A Bailey 2 13 15.4 3 5 38.5 Kemp 3.15, Wolv 6.50
J Mackie 1 7 14.3 2 3 42.9 Wolv 6.20
Mrs A Duffield 1 7 14.3 1 2 28.6 Kemp 2.40, Kemp 4.50, Wolv 5.50
P J Makin 1 7 14.3 1 2 28.6 Kemp 4.20
T G Dascombe 1 8 12.5 1 2 25.0 Wolv 8.20
B Ellison 1 9 11.1 4 5 55.6 Wolv 9.20
E A L Dunlop 1 9 11.1 2 3 33.3 Wolv 7.50
G L Moore 1 9 11.1 0 1 11.1 Kemp 4.20, Kemp 5.20
M G Quinlan 1 9 11.1 2 3 33.3 Kemp 2.40
M Botti 1 10 10.0 1 2 20.0 Kemp 3.15, Kemp 3.15, Kemp 3.50
W J Musson 1 10 10.0 1 2 20.0 Wolv 8.20
S C Williams 1 11 9.1 0 1 9.1 Wolv 7.20
B J Meehan 1 12 8.3 1 2 16.7 Kemp 2.10, Wolv 8.50
J H M Gosden 1 12 8.3 3 4 33.3 Kemp 4.20, Kemp 4.50
W M Brisbourne 1 13 7.7 4 5 38.5 Wolv 8.50, Wolv 9.20
R A Fahey 2 28 7.1 3 5 17.9 Kemp 2.40, Wolv 5.50, Wolv 6.50, Wolv 7.20, Wolv 8.20
M Johnston 1 15 6.7 2 3 20.0 Wolv 7.50, Wolv 8.20
P D Evans 1 18 5.6 5 6 33.3 Kemp 2.40, Wolv 7.20, Wolv 8.50
A B Haynes 0 4 0.0 1 1 25.0 Kemp 5.20
A D Brown 0 5 0.0 0 0 0.0 Wolv 9.20
B Palling 0 6 0.0 0 0 0.0 Wolv 7.50, Wolv 9.20
D Bourton 0 7 0.0 0 0 0.0 Wolv 6.50
Daniel Mark Loughnane 0 4 0.0 1 1 25.0 Wolv 5.50, Wolv 8.20
E J Alston 0 4 0.0 1 1 25.0 Wolv 6.20, Wolv 7.20, Wolv 8.50
Eve Johnson Houghton 0 5 0.0 0 0 0.0 Kemp 3.15
J Akehurst 0 5 0.0 2 2 40.0 Wolv 7.20
J G Given 0 14 0.0 1 1 7.1 Kemp 3.15, Wolv 5.50, Wolv 6.50, Wolv 7.50
J Gask 0 6 0.0 1 1 16.7 Kemp 2.10, Kemp 3.15
J J Quinn 0 4 0.0 2 2 50.0 Wolv 8.20
J R Jenkins 0 10 0.0 2 2 20.0 Kemp 4.20, Kemp 4.50
L M Cumani 0 7 0.0 4 4 57.1 Kemp 3.50, Kemp 3.50, Kemp 4.20, Kemp 4.50
M J Attwater 0 4 0.0 1 1 25.0 Kemp 5.20
M R Hoad 0 4 0.0 1 1 25.0 Kemp 2.10
M W Easterby 0 9 0.0 2 2 22.2 Kemp 3.15
M Wellings 0 4 0.0 0 0 0.0 Wolv 7.20
Mrs A J Perrett 0 4 0.0 1 1 25.0 Kemp 2.10
Mrs L C Jewell 0 4 0.0 0 0 0.0 Kemp 4.50
N Wilson 0 5 0.0 1 1 20.0 Wolv 6.50
P Howling 0 17 0.0 2 2 11.8 Kemp 5.20, Wolv 8.50, Wolv 9.20
P W D’Arcy 0 8 0.0 3 3 37.5 Wolv 5.50, Wolv 6.50
Peter Grayson 0 12 0.0 0 0 0.0 Wolv 5.50
R Brotherton 0 7 0.0 3 3 42.9 Wolv 5.50, Wolv 9.20
S R Bowring 0 4 0.0 2 2 50.0 Wolv 6.20, Wolv 6.50
W J Haggas 0 4 0.0 2 2 50.0 Wolv 5.50, Wolv 8.20
W J Knight 0 7 0.0 1 1 14.3 Kemp 5.20

COURSE TRAINER STATS FLAT

Kempton trainer stats ALL RACES 2006 – Thursday 25th Nov 2010 (ordered by strike rate – min 3 runs or 1 win)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%) Engagements
M A Jarvis 36 168 21.4 +£12.47 +7.4 3.50, 4.20
J H M Gosden 36 200 18.0 -£20.62 -10.3 4.20, 4.50
M W Easterby 8 45 17.8 -£0.90 -2.0 3.15
M Botti 34 204 16.7 +£113.50 +55.6 3.15, 3.15, 3.50
L M Cumani 20 122 16.4 -£26.96 -22.1 3.50, 3.50, 4.20, 4.50
A M Balding 48 304 15.8 +£2.04 +0.7 3.50, 4.20, 5.20
D Carroll 3 20 15.0 -£2.00 -10.0 2.10
P W Hiatt 17 117 14.5 +£57.93 +49.5 5.20
G L Moore 62 429 14.5 -£85.21 -19.9 4.20, 5.20
J Gask 15 105 14.3 -£9.00 -8.6 2.10, 3.15
G A Butler 19 140 13.6 -£16.90 -12.1 2.10, 3.15
T Keddy 13 96 13.5 +£16.75 +17.4 5.20
D Nicholls 8 61 13.1 -£3.60 -5.9 2.40
Ian Williams 11 84 13.1 -£15.50 -18.5 3.50
B W Hills 24 186 12.9 -£54.29 -29.2 4.20, 4.20, 4.50
R M H Cowell 10 79 12.7 +£56.00 +70.9 2.40
Mrs A J Perrett 21 168 12.5 -£25.81 -15.4 2.10
P J Makin 13 108 12.0 -£39.78 -36.8 4.20
E F Vaughan 10 85 11.8 -£36.38 -42.8 4.20
C E Brittain 23 202 11.4 -£40.87 -20.2 3.50
J A Osborne 22 202 10.9 -£44.42 -22.0 2.10
M P Tregoning 16 147 10.9 -£62.51 -42.5 4.20, 4.50
M Murphy 5 47 10.6 +£53.75 +114.4 3.15
D R C Elsworth 15 143 10.5 -£8.88 -6.2 3.15
B J Meehan 25 240 10.4 -£70.87 -29.5 2.10
P M Phelan 9 88 10.2 -£22.00 -25.0 2.40
W J Knight 11 108 10.2 -£29.94 -27.7 5.20
J G Given 10 99 10.1 -£34.43 -34.8 3.15
Mrs Mary Hambro 1 10 10.0 -£2.50 -25.0 5.20
M G Quinlan 9 94 9.6 -£11.95 -12.7 2.40
W Jarvis 8 93 8.6 -£41.38 -44.5 5.20
P Howling 34 397 8.6 -£151.63 -38.2 5.20
P D Evans 26 321 8.1 -£114.23 -35.6 2.40
A P Jarvis 21 265 7.9 -£113.70 -42.9 2.10, 5.20
M R Bosley 4 56 7.1 -£7.00 -12.5 2.40
John Joseph Murphy 1 14 7.1 -£11.50 -82.1 3.50, 5.20
A Bailey 3 44 6.8 -£23.50 -53.4 3.15
J R Jenkins 24 358 6.7 -£103.84 -29.0 4.20, 4.50
M J Attwater 16 242 6.6 -£117.17 -48.4 5.20
A B Haynes 8 131 6.1 -£19.00 -14.5 5.20
D Flood 1 17 5.9 -£11.50 -67.6 3.50
M R Hoad 2 37 5.4 +£31.00 +83.8 2.10
G C Bravery 3 56 5.4 -£36.50 -65.2 3.50, 4.50
C Gordon 1 19 5.3 -£2.00 -10.5 4.50
R A Mills 1 20 5.0 -£16.50 -82.5 2.10
G Prodromou 3 63 4.8 -£23.00 -36.5 2.40
R A Fahey 5 106 4.7 -£74.75 -70.5 2.40
Mrs L C Jewell 3 67 4.5 -£12.00 -17.9 4.50
C R Dore 5 132 3.8 -£82.75 -62.7 5.20
D Haydn Jones 2 53 3.8 -£26.00 -49.1 2.10
Mrs A Duffield 1 27 3.7 -£19.00 -70.4 2.40, 4.50
Eve Johnson Houghton 3 94 3.2 -£84.75 -90.2 3.15

Wolverhampton trainer stats ALL RACES 2006 – Thursday 25th Nov 2010 (ordered by strike rate – min 3 runs or 1 win)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%) Engagements
S Donohoe 2 7 28.6 +£3.00 +42.9 9.20
M Johnston 85 405 21.0 -£14.11 -3.5 7.50, 8.20
E A L Dunlop 30 155 19.4 +£10.46 +6.7 7.50
T G Dascombe 36 188 19.2 -£9.17 -4.9 8.20
George Baker 28 151 18.5 +£21.27 +14.1 6.20, 7.50
B J Meehan 29 162 17.9 -£7.34 -4.5 8.50
T D Walford 2 12 16.7 -£1.00 -8.3 8.50
P W D’Arcy 10 61 16.4 -£15.18 -24.9 5.50, 6.50
W J Haggas 25 157 15.9 -£47.30 -30.1 5.50, 8.20
H J Collingridge 14 88 15.9 +£5.33 +6.1 7.20
S C Williams 23 151 15.2 +£67.76 +44.9 7.20
W J Musson 29 194 15.0 +£18.38 +9.5 8.20
Miss Tor Sturgis 6 41 14.6 -£2.83 -6.9 9.20
C G Cox 12 84 14.3 +£6.43 +7.7 8.20
J Akehurst 3 21 14.3 -£3.25 -15.5 7.20
D J S Ffrench Davis 13 92 14.1 +£31.50 +34.2 7.20
D Nicholls 20 145 13.8 -£27.55 -19.0 6.20
J Mackie 16 118 13.6 +£124.85 +105.8 6.20
N J Vaughan 16 119 13.5 +£25.57 +21.5 6.20, 7.50, 8.50
G A Swinbank 12 95 12.6 -£34.88 -36.7 7.50
B Ellison 21 169 12.4 -£3.72 -2.2 9.20
Daniel Mark Loughnane 5 41 12.2 -£5.00 -12.2 5.50, 8.20
R Hollinshead 77 645 11.9 +£6.29 +1.0 5.50, 6.20, 6.50, 8.50
J A Osborne 32 279 11.5 -£75.79 -27.2 7.50
W G M Turner 16 140 11.4 -£28.30 -20.2 8.50
P D Evans 82 757 10.8 -£191.52 -25.3 7.20, 8.50
J C Fox 5 47 10.6 +£2.00 +4.3 9.20
J J Quinn 13 126 10.3 -£14.17 -11.2 8.20
J G Given 25 243 10.3 -£11.49 -4.7 5.50, 6.50, 7.50
M A Magnusson 2 20 10.0 -£5.17 -25.8 6.20
S R Bowring 13 140 9.3 -£40.61 -29.0 6.20, 6.50
I W McInnes 23 253 9.1 -£29.13 -11.5 6.20, 8.50
R A Fahey 39 431 9.1 -£96.93 -22.5 5.50, 6.50, 7.20, 8.20
Mrs A Duffield 10 111 9.0 -£38.83 -35.0 5.50
R M H Cowell 9 102 8.8 -£53.08 -52.0 8.20
P Howling 41 469 8.7 -£144.34 -30.8 8.50, 9.20
N Wilson 11 127 8.7 -£46.50 -36.6 6.50
A Bailey 14 165 8.5 -£86.31 -52.3 6.50
M Wellings 9 111 8.1 -£55.63 -50.1 7.20
W M Brisbourne 64 792 8.1 -£388.14 -49.0 8.50, 9.20
Rae Guest 2 26 7.7 -£1.00 -3.8 5.50
C R Dore 17 243 7.0 -£117.38 -48.3 6.50, 6.50
B Palling 18 260 6.9 -£94.17 -36.2 7.50, 9.20
D Bourton 1 16 6.3 -£1.00 -6.3 6.50
M Herrington 1 16 6.3 -£12.00 -75.0 9.20
Miss J A Camacho 6 101 5.9 -£58.75 -58.2 9.20
Mrs C A Dunnett 8 139 5.8 -£50.50 -36.3 8.50
E J Alston 10 179 5.6 -£50.13 -28.0 6.20, 7.20, 8.50
Miss M E Rowland 5 91 5.5 -£26.00 -28.6 7.50
R J Price 10 189 5.3 -£119.50 -63.2 7.20, 7.50
C J Teague 1 26 3.9 -£9.00 -34.6 7.20
P Burgoyne 1 27 3.7 -£15.00 -55.6 8.50
A D Brown 3 87 3.5 -£33.00 -37.9 9.20
R Brotherton 4 126 3.2 -£98.00 -77.8 5.50, 9.20
Peter Grayson 12 431 2.8 -£332.13 -77.1 5.50
D Morris 1 48 2.1 -£33.00 -68.8 8.20
A Berry 2 117 1.7 -£85.00 -72.6 5.50, 7.20

RECENT TRAINER FORM – with Saturday engagements

Saturday, November 20th, 2010 at 12:36 pm  
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RECENT TRAINER FORM – NH (last 14 days) – in strike rate order

Name Wins Runs Strike rate (%) Placed Win & Placed Win & Placed % Engagements
M Hill 1 1 100.0 0 1 100.0 Asco 1.30
Mrs P Robeson 1 2 50.0 0 1 50.0 Hunt 12.30, Hunt 2.15, Hunt 3.45
N W Alexander 1 2 50.0 0 1 50.0 Hayd 3.55
Miss E C Lavelle 7 15 46.7 1 8 53.3 Asco 12.20, Asco 12.55
N P Mulholland 6 16 37.5 4 10 62.5 Asco 1.30
Miss R Curtis 4 11 36.4 2 6 54.5 Asco 12.55, Asco 2.35
J L Flint 1 3 33.3 0 1 33.3 Hunt 1.40, Hunt 2.45
J S Smith 1 3 33.3 1 2 66.7 Hunt 2.45
N J Henderson 9 30 30.0 6 15 50.0 Asco 12.20, Asco 2.35, Asco 3.50, Hayd 2.20, Hayd 2.50, Hayd 2.50
S Gollings 3 10 30.0 2 5 50.0 Hayd 12.40, Hayd 1.50
J M Jefferson 5 17 29.4 4 9 52.9 Hayd 2.20, Hayd 2.50
P F Nicholls 14 48 29.2 11 25 52.1 Asco 12.20, Asco 12.55, Asco 2.05, Asco 2.35, Asco 3.10, Hayd 12.40, Hayd 2.50, Hayd 3.25
Jennie Candlish 2 7 28.6 1 3 42.9 Hayd 2.50
D G Bridgwater 1 4 25.0 0 1 25.0 Asco 12.20
Mrs S J Humphrey 1 4 25.0 0 1 25.0 Hunt 3.15
D McCain Jnr 8 33 24.2 11 19 57.6 Hayd 12.40, Hayd 1.15, Hayd 2.50, Hayd 3.55
A M Hales 3 13 23.1 2 5 38.5 Asco 1.30
B G Powell 3 13 23.1 2 5 38.5 Asco 1.30
A King 10 46 21.7 11 21 45.7 Asco 12.20, Asco 1.30, Asco 2.35, Asco 3.50, Asco 3.50, Hunt 1.05, Hunt 1.40, Hunt 2.45, Hunt 3.15
J Howard Johnson 5 23 21.7 6 11 47.8 Hayd 1.15, Hayd 3.25
C J Mann 4 19 21.1 2 6 31.6 Hunt 2.45
Evan Williams 7 34 20.6 3 10 29.4 Hayd 1.50
A Crook 1 5 20.0 1 2 40.0 Hayd 1.50
J P L Ewart 2 10 20.0 2 4 40.0 Hayd 2.50
K C Bailey 2 10 20.0 4 6 60.0 Asco 12.20, Asco 12.55, Asco 1.30
T J Pitt 1 5 20.0 0 1 20.0 Hayd 2.20
W J Greatrex 2 10 20.0 2 4 40.0 Asco 12.20, Asco 3.50
C L Tizzard 4 21 19.0 4 8 38.1 Asco 12.55
V R A Dartnall 2 11 18.2 1 3 27.3 Asco 3.50
C E Longsdon 3 17 17.6 6 9 52.9 Asco 12.20, Hayd 2.20, Hunt 1.05, Hunt 2.15
H J Evans 1 6 16.7 1 2 33.3 Asco 1.30, Hunt 3.45
J Groucott 1 6 16.7 1 2 33.3 Hayd 1.15
Mrs P Sly 1 6 16.7 2 3 50.0 Hunt 12.30, Hunt 1.40
Nick Mitchell 1 6 16.7 2 3 50.0 Hunt 3.15
R Dickin 2 12 16.7 3 5 41.7 Asco 2.35
Nick Williams 2 13 15.4 2 4 30.8 Hayd 2.50
P J Hobbs 6 40 15.0 11 17 42.5 Asco 3.10, Hayd 12.40, Hayd 3.25, Hayd 3.55
N B King 2 14 14.3 2 4 28.6 Asco 1.30, Hunt 12.30, Hunt 2.15, Hunt 2.45, Hunt 3.45
Miss Venetia Williams 3 22 13.6 2 5 22.7 Hayd 3.25
Ian Williams 2 15 13.3 2 4 26.7 Asco 3.50, Hunt 3.45
Mrs S J Smith 4 31 12.9 6 10 32.3 Hayd 1.15, Hayd 2.50, Hayd 3.55, Hunt 3.15
B Ellison 1 8 12.5 2 3 37.5 Hayd 1.50
D Pipe 3 24 12.5 6 9 37.5 Asco 2.05, Asco 2.35, Asco 2.35, Asco 3.10, Asco 3.10, Hayd 2.50, Hunt 2.45
H D Daly 1 9 11.1 1 2 22.2 Asco 3.10, Hayd 1.15, Hunt 12.30, Hunt 1.05, Hunt 2.45, Hunt 3.15
Mrs R Dobbin 1 9 11.1 1 2 22.2 Asco 12.20
N A Twiston-Davies 5 45 11.1 12 17 37.8 Asco 12.55, Hayd 2.20, Hayd 2.50, Hayd 2.50, Hayd 3.25, Hunt 1.05, Hunt 2.15, Hunt 3.15, Hunt 3.45
C C Bealby 1 10 10.0 2 3 30.0 Hunt 12.30, Hunt 2.15
Mrs Caroline Bailey 1 10 10.0 2 3 30.0 Hunt 2.45
P Bowen 2 20 10.0 7 9 45.0 Hayd 12.40, Hayd 2.50
Jonjo O’Neill 5 54 9.3 6 11 20.4 Asco 2.05, Asco 3.50, Hunt 2.45
M F Harris 2 22 9.1 3 5 22.7 Asco 2.05, Hayd 1.15
Mrs L Wadham 1 11 9.1 4 5 45.5 Hayd 2.50, Hunt 12.30
G L Moore 2 24 8.3 6 8 33.3 Asco 12.55, Asco 2.05, Hayd 2.50, Hunt 1.40, Hunt 2.15, Hunt 2.15, Hunt 2.45
T R George 1 12 8.3 0 1 8.3 Hayd 3.25
Miss Lucinda V Russell 2 29 6.9 3 5 17.2 Hayd 2.20
N G Richards 1 18 5.6 1 2 11.1 Asco 3.10
Ferdy Murphy 1 37 2.7 13 14 37.8 Hayd 1.15
A W Carroll 0 9 0.0 2 2 22.2 Asco 2.05
C Gordon 0 7 0.0 1 1 14.3 Asco 3.10
C Grant 0 8 0.0 2 2 25.0 Hayd 1.15, Hayd 3.55
C J Down 0 11 0.0 1 1 9.1 Asco 1.30
C P Morlock 0 4 0.0 0 0 0.0 Hunt 3.45
C R Egerton 0 5 0.0 1 1 20.0 Asco 3.50
G Elliott 0 6 0.0 1 1 16.7 Hayd 1.50
G M Moore 0 7 0.0 1 1 14.3 Hayd 2.50
James Moffatt 0 7 0.0 1 1 14.3 Hayd 3.25
M C Chapman 0 9 0.0 3 3 33.3 Asco 12.20
M Sheppard 0 6 0.0 1 1 16.7 Asco 1.30
Miss C Dyson 0 5 0.0 1 1 20.0 Hunt 2.15
Miss H C Knight 0 12 0.0 4 4 33.3 Asco 12.55, Asco 3.50
Miss Suzy Smith 0 5 0.0 2 2 40.0 Hunt 12.30, Hunt 1.40
Miss Z C Davison 0 8 0.0 2 2 25.0 Hunt 1.40, Hunt 3.45
Mrs T J Hill 0 4 0.0 2 2 50.0 Hunt 1.40, Hunt 2.45
P A Pritchard 0 6 0.0 0 0 0.0 Hunt 3.45
R Rowe 0 11 0.0 1 1 9.1 Asco 12.55, Asco 1.30, Asco 3.10
R T Phillips 0 13 0.0 0 0 0.0 Asco 1.30
W K Goldsworthy 0 10 0.0 3 3 30.0 Hayd 2.50, Hayd 3.55

Positive stats for Weds racing

Wednesday, November 17th, 2010 at 11:57 am  
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Horses with positive stats for today’s racing

12.50  Lingfield – Fastest Magician

1.00    Warwick – Salpierre

1.10    Hexham – Noble Scholar

2.10    Hexham – Oil Burner

2.20    Lingfield – Requisite

2.30    Warwick – Nadiya De La Vega

2.40    Hexham – Camden George

5.10    Kempton – Coax

5.10    Kempton – Hunter’s Light

5.40    Kempton – Sleek Gold

5.40    Kempton – School For Scandal

6.40    Kempton – Pearl Arch

1.55 Cheltenham – 15 year trends

Saturday, November 13th, 2010 at 11:16 am  
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Saturday 1.55 – Morson Group Handicap Steeple Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 3½f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites: There have been 5 winning favourites (including joints) from 18 qualifiers showing a profit of £2.87 (ROI +15.9%).
Market: Third and fourth favourites have provided 6 winners from 27 qualifiers and backing all qualifiers would have yielded a profit of £16.50 (ROI +61.1%).
Price: Horses priced 4/1 to 9/1 have provided 12 of the last 15 winners. Backing all such qualifiers would have produced a profit of £19.50 (ROI +32%).
Position LTO: 10 of the 15 winners finished in the first three last time out.
Age: 5, 6 and 7 year olds have produced 8 winners from 37 qualifiers

showing a profit of £17.12 (ROI +46.3%).
Breeding: French breds have won 6 of the last 13 renewals from 27 runners

showing a profit of £16.00 (ROI +59.3%).
Class LTO: 8 of the last 15 winners raced in the same class last time out. Backing all 46 qualifiers would have produced a small profit of £6.75 (ROI +14.7%).
Trainers: The Pipe stable have saddled 4 winners but none since David took over the reigns from his father.
Sex of horse: Fillies and mares have won 2 races from just 4 qualifiers.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 10/1 or bigger have produced only 1 winner from 63 runners for a loss of £50.00 (ROI -79.4%).
LTO run: Horses that failed to finish LTO have provided just 1 winner from 41 qualifiers for a loss of £33.00 (ROI -80.5%).
Breeding: British bred runners have provided just 1 winner from 37 runners – that winner being back in 1995.

GENERAL STATS

Age: 8 year olds have produced 2 winners from 38 qualifiers (SR 5.3%); 9 year olds have produced 2 winners from 33 qualifiers (SR 6.1%); 10 year olds have produced 1 winner from 20 qualifiers (5%); 11 year olds plus have won 2 from 12 (SR 16.7%).

Trends analysis: younger horses (5 to 7yos) have a good record winning 53% of the races from just 26% of the runners, and all such runners require close scrutiny. Recent form seems fairly important with 10 of the 15 winners having finished in the first three on their last run. The race has also favoured the front end of the market with favourites showing a small profit as well as 3rd/4th favourites also proving profitable. Not surprisingly therefore, horses priced in double figures have really struggled showing significant losses. The Pipe stable have done well in the past, but it should be noted that all four of David Pipe’s runners have been well beaten in the past four seasons.

Paddy Power meeting stats

Friday, November 12th, 2010 at 10:12 am  
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Some 10 year trends for the meeting which starts today:

-      Favourites have won 29.6% of the time for a very small loss to SP. Indeed backing favourites in all handicaps would have produced profits of 13p in the £.

-      French breds have won 29 chases from 210 runners (SR 13.8%); British breds have won just 10 chases from 199 runners (SR 5%).

-      In running punters take note as over 26% of chases have been won by the early leader. This rises to 37% in non handicap chases.

-      In chases, horses priced 20/1 or bigger have provided just 2 winners from 253 runners for a loss of 68p in the £.

Did you know?

Monday, November 8th, 2010 at 5:49 pm  
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Been doing some pace research and some of the results are extremely interesting:

When Dettori takes an early lead on a Saeed Bin Suroor horse he has won an amazing 47% of the time.

When Dettori takes an lead when on the favourite, he has gone onto win over 53% of the time.

Combining the two – Dettori leading early on a favourite trained by Bin Suroor sees him win 59.8% of the time!

Saturday – big race trends (15 years)

Saturday, November 6th, 2010 at 11:29 am  
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November handicap (3.10 Doncaster) – 1m 4f (class 2 handicap)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Position LTO: Horses that finished in the first two LTO have provided 9 of the last 15 winners.
Recent win: 14 of the last 15 winners had won at least one race in their last six starts.
Last 3 runs: Horses that that finished in the first four on all of their last three starts have provided 7 winners from 59 qualifiers for a profit of £58.00 (ROI +98.3%).
Course LTO: Horses that raced at Grade 1 track last time out have provided 13 of the last 15 winners.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): 1 win from 17 for a loss of £11.00 (ROI -64.7%).
Price: Horses priced 33/1 or bigger have provided 1 winner from 92.
Distance LTO: Horses that raced over 1m5f or more LTO have provided just 1 winner from 52 qualifiers.
Races this season: Horses that have raced 3 times or less during the season have provided 0 winners from 72 qualifiers.
Course LTO: Horses that raced at a Grade 2 track or lower LTO have provided just 2 winner from 88 qualifiers for a loss of £64.00 (ROI -72.7%).

GENERAL STATS

Course winners: Course winners have provided 5 winners from 57 qualifiers (SR 8.8%); non course winners have provided 10 winners from 267 (SR 3.7%).
Age: 3yos have provided 7 winners from 82 runners (SR 8.5%); 4yos have provided 5 winners from 113 (SR 4.4%); 5yos have provided 2 winners from 60 (SR 3.3%); 6yos+ have provided 1 winners from 69 (SR 1.4%).

Trends analysis: Favourites have won only once but in such a competitive event with very big fields, this is perhaps not so big a surprise. 1995 saw the last successful market leader, so one could argue another one is overdue. A good starting point would be to focus on horses that have registered at least one victory in their last six runs. Horses that finished in the first two last time out are also worth noting as they have won 60% of the races between them from 35% of the total runners. Course winners tend to be better value than non course winners. In terms of age 3 year olds have the best record; meanwhile older horses (6 or older) look worth avoiding.

Badger Ales Trophy (3.20 Wincanton) – Listed chase 3m 1½ f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): 5 wins from 16 for a profit of £1.13 (ROI +7.1%).
Position LTO: 10 of the last 15 winners finished first or second LTO (6 won).
Price: Horses priced 12/1 or bigger have provided 7 winners from 69 runners for a profit of £47.00 (ROI +68.1%).
Weight rank: The bottom 4 in the weights (inc. joints) have provided 10 winners from 64 runners for a profit of £57.63 (ROI +90%).
Trainers: Paul Nicholls has saddled 5 winners from 20 runners for a profit of £40.25 (ROI +201.3%).
Jockeys: Timmy Murphy has ridden the winner on 4 occasions from 8 rides.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 4/1 to 15/2 have produced just 1 winner from 31 qualifiers for a loss of £26.00 (ROI -83.9%).
Weight rank: The top 4 in the weights (inc. joint 4th) have provided 4 winners from 65 qualifiers for a loss of £49.50 (ROI -76.2%).
Class droppers: Horses dropping in class have a poor record with just 2 wins from 34.

GENERAL STATS

Age: 6yos have provided 3 winners from 17 runners (SR 17.6%); 7yos have provided 3 winners from 36 (SR 8.3%), 8yos have provided 3 winners from 38 (SR 7.9%); 9yos have provided 4 winners from 31 (SR 12.9%); 10yos+ have provided 2 winners from 26 (SR 7.7%).
Course winners: Course winners have provided 4 winners from 42 qualifiers (SR 9.5%); non course winners who have provided 11 winners from 106 qualifiers (SR 10.4%).

Trends analysis: An interesting set of statistics where favourites have a profitable record, but so do outsiders. Perhaps the best starting point is to look for horses that finished 1st or 2nd LTO as they have provided 10 of the last 15 winners. From there, there seems to a weight bias to lower weighted runners so one would be better off concentrating on those rather than horses near the top of the weights. Age wise there seems no bias, while it seems to have been a lucky race for jockey Timmy Murphy. From a trainer’s perspective runners from the stable of Paul Nicholls demand great respect. Indeed, it is not always their first string that wins either!