Billy Red looks an interesting “in running” trade in the 2.00 at Brighton.

Am away for a week or so -  so I have an excuse for lack of blogging!

POSITIVE STATS – (TRAINER / SIRE / DRAW)

Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

2.05    Cheltenham – Acey **: N Twiston-Davies in September / October making debut; top 2 in betting SR 56.4%; ROI +82.1%

2.05    Cheltenham – Aiteen Thirtythree **: P Nicholls at Cheltenham – top 2 in the betting + Ruby Walsh riding SR 33.5%; ROI +24%

2.40    Cheltenham – You’re The Top: N Henderson – horses off the track for 5 months to 1 year; NOT Graded, Listed or Maiden; SR 34%; ROI +46.1%

2.40    Cheltenham – Rory Boy **: N Twiston-Davies in October – male chasers off track for 150+ days; must be top 4 of the betting; SR 32.7%; ROI +45.6%

2.40    Cheltenham – Classic Swain **: P Nicholls at Cheltenham – top 2 in the betting + Ruby Walsh riding SR 33.5%; ROI +24%

3.15    Cheltenham – Royal Mix **: P Nicholls at Cheltenham – top 2 in the betting + Ruby Walsh riding SR 33.5%; ROI +24%

3.50    Cheltenham – Babysitter **: N Twiston-Davies in October – male chasers off track for 150+ days; must be top 4 of the betting; SR 32.7%; ROI +45.6%

3.50    Cheltenham – Picture This **: P Nicholls at Cheltenham – top 2 in the betting + Ruby Walsh riding SR 33.5%; ROI +24%

4.25    Cheltenham – Benartic: N Henderson – horses off the track for 5 months to 1 year; NOT Graded, Listed or Maiden; SR 34%; ROI +46.1%

4.25    Cheltenham – Great Mates **: P Nicholls at Cheltenham – top 2 in the betting + Ruby Walsh riding SR 33.5%; ROI +24%

5.00    Cheltenham – Pigeon Island **: N Twiston-Davies in October – male chasers off track for 150+ days; must be top 4 of the betting; SR 32.7%; ROI +45.6%

5.00    Cheltenham – Ghizao **: P Nicholls at Cheltenham – top 2 in the betting + Ruby Walsh riding SR 33.5%; ROI +24%

5.35    Cheltenham – Lets Get Serious **: N Henderson in bumpers; making debut + top 4 of the betting; SR 37.1%; ROI +34.6%

5.35    Cheltenham – Dark Lover **: P Nicholls at Cheltenham – top 2 in the betting + Ruby Walsh riding SR 33.5%; ROI +24%

2.30    Kelso – Mr Jay Dee **: G Swinbank – Favourites in non handicap hurdles; ran in hurdle race LTO; SR 61.7%; ROI +31.5% (43 of the 47 races finished 1st or placed)

The trends are taken from the following three races – the Champion Stakes, the Dewhurst Stakes and the Jockey Club Cup. The stats taken from 1990 to 2009 with all profits/losses quoted to £1 level win stakes. ROI stands for return on investment; SR for strike rate:

3.00 Newmarket  – The Champion Stakes – Group 1 (1m 2f) 3yo+

POSITIVE TRENDS

NEGATIVE TRENDS

GENERAL STATS

Trends Analysis: up to and including 2002 the market tended to close to the mark, but with 4 double pirced winners in the last 6 years we cannot be too dogmatic about the likely price of the winner. Last time out winners have a good record and good recent form in Group 1 company is a plus. Fillies have an excellent record in terms of strike rate and in effect have been twice more likely to win than their male counterparts. French trainers have an excellent record in the race and any runner from across the Channel merits the very close scrutiny. In terms of negative trends, horses beaten by 4 or more lengths LTO have a poor record as do horses that finished 4^th or worse LTO.

2.25 Newmarket The Dewhurst Stakes – Group 1 (7f) 2yo

POSITIVE TRENDS

NEGATIVE TRENDS

GENERAL STATS

Trends Analysis: The roll of honour for this race is impressive including the following winners: Rock of Gibraltar, Generous, The Minstrel, Mill Reef and Nijinsky. Ante post punters for next year’s classics should take note! Favourites have an excellent record but to make this race harder to sum up from a market perspective, there have also been 6 winners priced 20/1 or bigger during this 20-year period. It is definitely best to concentrate on horses that have won at least two races – they have provided 80% of the winners from 55% of all the runners. Trainers from the Lambourn area have done extremely well as have French/Irish raiders, whereas Newmarket raiders have been surprisingly unsuccessful. Finally, the foaling dates of the horses have given a strong indication of their chances – horses March or earlier have been the ones to concentrate on.

5.25 Newmarket – The Jockey Club Cup – Group 3 (2 miles) 3yo+

POSITIVE TRENDS

NEGATIVE TRENDS

GENERAL STATS

Trends Analysis: Good recent form coupled with a top two position in the market is a good starting point. Indeed a top three LTO finish over 2 miles has provided a remarkable 75% of the winners. It is also a big plus to have run in Group company LTO and/or run at Doncaster. Older horses (7yo+) have a very good record and as with the Dewhurst, trainers from the Lambourn area have been the ones to note. Having said that, Further Flight who won the race 5 times for Lambourn trainer Barry Hills, skews the figures somewhat.

Pace / running styles in National Hunt racing

Over the past year or two I have explored pace and running styles in much greater depth than I used to. The reason for this is simple – I believe this is an area where hard work and research can still gain you a betting edge over the majority of punters. Let me explain this in more detail:

For this piece I am going to split all the winners of the races studied into three distinct categories – horses that ran from the front early on in the race (front runners); horses that ran close to the pace early in the race (prominent runners); and horses that raced in midfield or at the back early in the race (hold up horses). Essentially, the position a horse takes up early in the race, tends to remain virtually the same for a good proportion of that race. For example, if a horse takes up a prominent position just behind the pace in the first two furlongs of say a 1m2f race, there is a strong chance that the horse will still be in a very similar position after 6-7f. In contrast, you don’t often see a horse lead for 2 furlongs, then drop back to the middle of the pack for 2 furlongs, then race just off the pace for 2 furlongs, then drop back to the middle again, etc, etc. Hence from a research point of view, the fact that a horses’ running style tends to stay consistent for around 75% of the race makes life much easier.

Taking the year 2008 as an example there were just over 6000 races on the flat in this country – the winning splits for the three pace categories were as follows:

Front runners won 20.2% of all races;

Prominent runners won 45% of all races;

Hold up horses won 34.8% of all races.

At first glance, one might be thinking therefore that prominent runners have an advantage. Well they have won more races than every other group right? However, to give more meaning to these figures we need to know what percentage of all the runners were a) front runners; b) prominent runners and c) hold up horses. Here are the percentages:

Front runners accounted for 11% of all runners;

Prominent runners accounted for 39.4% of all runners;

Hold up horses accounted for 49.6% of all runners.

These figures now reveal a powerful statistic – that front runners win nearly twice as many races as they statistically should do. In this particular year, they won 20.2% of all races having provided just 11% of all the total runners. Being more precise, they have won 1.84 times more often than their expected probability – their expected probability being 11%. Hence, taking a very general view, the best value in flat racing in terms of running styles/pace clearly lies with front runners. I could have chosen any year in the last 10 and you would have seen similar results.

Conversely, although hold up horses win nearly 35% of all races, they provide roughly 50% of the total runners. Hence, once again taking a very general view, hold up horses are clearly poor value from a pace/running styles perspective.

When looking in much greater depth at these ideas, one will find that an even greater edge can be found when looking at certain distances, and also at certain courses. All of my research, and hence all of my articles for that matter, have looked at this in flat racing only. However, the main focus for this article is pace/running styles in National hunt racing so let me move onto National Hunt racing.

Let us take the year 2008 again as my example, and as before, let me split all the winners of the races studied into the three distinct categories – front runners; prominent runners; hold up horses. In 2008 there were 3368 National hunt races in this country – the winning splits for the three pace categories were as follows:

Front runners won 17% of all races;

Prominent runners won 45.7% of all races;

Hold up horses won 37.3% of all races.

As before, we need to know what percentage of all the runners were a) front runners; b) prominent runners and c) hold up horses. Here are the percentages:

Front runners accounted for 10.2% of all runners;

Prominent runners accounted for 38% of all runners;

Hold up horses accounted for 51.8% of all runners.

Once again we can see that front runners seem to be the best value – there advantage may not be a strong as it is on the flat but essentially front runners in National hunt racing win 1.67 times more often than they statistically should. In addition, as with their flat counterparts, hold up horses perform relatively poorly when judged from this pace perspective.

For me, these figures open up a new world of possibilities in terms of my National hunt betting. Up to now, as I have already intimated, 99.9% of my pace research has been on the flat. However, although the ‘edge’ looks less strong in National hunt racing, it still looks a strong enough edge to research in considerable depth. Indeed, for the record, if you had managed to predict the front runner in every National hunt race of 2008, you would have made a profit of £35,000 to £100 level stakes to SP. Of course, this would have been impossible, unless you are Mystic Meg … lol, but what if you had bet ‘in running’ on every front runner, placing your bet within the first 10 seconds of each race? My educated guess is that you probably would still have made a profit and my reasoning is thus: although front runners often shorten in price at the beginning of a race, this contraction is offset by the fact that the Betfair price at the off is likely to be 10 to 25% bigger than the eventual SP. Hence even if the price contracts 10 to 25% in the first ten seconds, then you are still effectively getting SP, or near as damn it, on the horse in question. I appreciate that there is commission to be taken into account, and that the contraction in price for each horse will vary in percentage terms, but hopefully you see my point.

I have generated a 122 page National Hunt Trainer Report – for more information about it please contact me on dave@racingtrends.co.uk

Here is my full National Hunt Message that members received today – if you like what you see follow the link on the page to join up.

National Hunt Message for Sat 9 Oct 2010

COURSE FAVOURITE STATS NATIONAL HUNT – this is a section looking at the stats for favourites at courses in certain race types

Bangor-On-Dee favourites

Chepstow favourites

Hexham favourites

POSITIVE STATS – (TRAINER / SIRE / DRAW)

Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

2.55    Bangor-On-Dee – Blazing Desert: JJ Quinn hurdles at Bangor (7 wins, 7 placed from 15) SR 46.7%; ROI +110.3%

5.15    Bangor-On-Dee – Robinson Collonges: P Nicholls – 5 and 6yo male french breds in novice chases; SR 41%; ROI +10.6%

4.35    Chepstow – Tarvini **: J O’ Neill handicap hurdles (exc. novice handicaps) aged 4 to 7 top 4 in the betting SR 24.4%; ROI +19.5%

5.10    Chepstow – Ballycarney **: Miss E Lavelle – handicap chases; male runners priced 16/1 or shorter; SR 21%; ROI +46.2%

5.10    Chepstow – Ballycarney **: Miss E Lavelle in October; must be top 2 in the betting; SR 50%; ROI +94.8%

5.10    Chepstow – Beat The Boys **: N Twiston-Davies in October – male chasers off track for 150+ days; must be top 4 of the betting; SR 32.7%; ROI +45.6%

3.10    Hexham – Stagecoach Amber **: Mrs S Smith – handicap chases; off track between 10 and 50 days; aged 6 to 10; must be priced 16/1 or shorter in betting; SR 18.8%; ROI +32%

4.20    Hexham – Errington: J Howard Johnson – October to December; hurdle races; off track for 3 months or more; SR 24.3%; ROI +37.7%

4.20    Hexham – Errington * **: Positive Sire Stats – Karinga Bay males on soft/heavy going; must be top 2 in the betting also SR 40.3%; ROI 51.2%

4.20    Hexham – Monogram * **: Positive Sire Stats – Karinga Bay males on soft/heavy going; must be top 2 in the betting also SR 40.3%; ROI 51.2%

NEGATIVE STATS – Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

5.50    Bangor-On-Dee – Fiddlededee **: Poor jockey stat – A Mc Coy in bumpers; horses priced 5/1 or bigger SR 2.7%; ROI -80.3%

2.00    Hexham – Kellystown Lad: Poor trainer stat – Ferdy Murphy in October; horse off the track for 3 months+ SR 4.3%; ROI -84.4%

4.55    Hexham – Reckless Venture **: Poor trainer stat – Miss Lucinda Russell with horses returning to track within 10 days EXCLUDING favourites; SR 3.7%; ROI -66%

5.30    Hexham – Katie’s Prince: Poor trainer stat – C Grant runners on debut; SR 0% ROI -100% (0 from 106)

POOR VALUE LAST TIME OUT WINNER – The idea in this section is to find horses that won LTO that perform poorly in comparison to all LTO winners. The stats for all LTO winners in NH races the strike rate (SR) is 19.3% and losses are -14.8%. These are my benchmarks.

5.45    Chepstow – Royal Scoundrel: Poor LTO 1st stat – NH racing; won LTO; off the track for over 1 year; SR 9.3%; SR -40.5%

PACE INFORMATION – the figures for NH races vary slightly in comparison to the flat ones. For flat races I use 10+runner handicaps only. For NH, all race types are considered, and all races are considered (regardless of the number of runners). As with the flat, the average figure for each group should be 1.0.

Bangor-On-Dee 4.05 – A solid advantage to front runners over this C&D. Taken as a whole, hold up horses have a very poor record.

Chepstow 2.20 / 2.50 – Hold up horses have a very moderate record over this C&D, so there is an advantage to lead, or race close to the pace.

Chepstow 4.00 – There is an edge to front runners over this trip.

Here are the ratings for this race:

Rougham                            5.0

Westlin’ Winds                     4.3

Prince Pippin                        3.4

Barwell Bridge                     3.0

Olofi                                  2.8

George Nympton                  2.7

Troubletimestwo                   2.2

Escort’men                          1.5

Conclusion – Rougham is the pace value while Westlin’ Winds should not be dismissed from trading calculations.

Chepstow 5.10 – An advantage to front runners over this C&D, and from an ‘in running’ perspective one would hope to gain some value.

Here are the ratings for this race:

Gullible Gordon                     4.8

Mount Oscar                        3.6

Ballycarney                         3.5

Dom D’Orgeval                    3.4

Beat The Boys                     3.4

Templer                              3.2

Cullahill                               3.0

Ellerslie George                    2.8

Le Beau Bai                         1.8

Postmaster                         1.8

Tempsford                          1.5

Conclusion –  Gullible Gordon is clearly the pace pick so should be value pre race and “in running”.

Hexham 2.00 / 2.35- Hold up horses score less than half as often as they should, so there is a definite advantage to lead, and less so for those that race close to the pace.

Hexham 4.55 – One of the stronger front running biases. Front runners have an excellent record, while hold up horses tend to struggle.

Here are the ratings for this race:

Reckless Venture                  4.0

Adrianeo                             4.0

Murphys Beau                      3.0

Benbeoch                            2.8

Dougall                               2.0

Panthers Run                       1.8

Sierra Victor                        1.6

Conclusion – Reckless Venture and Adrianeo offer the pace / trading value here.

Horses mentioned in 2 or more sections –

5.10    Chepstow – Ballycarney (must be top 2 in the betting to qualify)

4.20    Hexham – Errington (must be top 2 in the betting to qualify AND be going to be soft or heavy)

RECENT TRAINER FORM – NH (last 14 days exc. Friday) – in strike rate order

COURSE TRAINER STATS NH

Bangor-On-Dee trainer stats ALL RACES 2005 – Thursday 7th Oct 2010 (ordered by strike rate – min 3 runs or 1 win)

Bangor-On-Dee trainer stats ALL HURDLES 2005 – Thursday 7th Oct 2010 (ordered by strike rate – min 3 runs or 1 win)

Bangor-On-Dee trainer stats ALL CHASES 2005 – Thursday 7th Oct 2010 (ordered by strike rate – min 3 runs or 1 win)

Chepstow trainer stats ALL RACES 2005 – Thursday 7th Oct 2010 (ordered by strike rate – min 3 runs or 1 win)

Chepstow trainer stats ALL HURDLES 2005 – Thursday 7th Oct 2010 (ordered by strike rate – min 3 runs or 1 win)

Chepstow trainer stats ALL CHASES 2005 – Thursday 7th Oct 2010 (ordered by strike rate – min 3 runs or 1 win)

Hexham trainer stats ALL RACES 2005 – Thursday 7th Oct 2010 (ordered by strike rate – min 3 runs or 1 win)

Hexham trainer stats ALL HURDLES 2005 – Thursday 7th Oct 2010 (ordered by strike rate – min 3 runs or 1 win)

Hexham trainer stats ALL CHASES 2005 – Thursday 7th Oct 2010 (ordered by strike rate – min 3 runs or 1 win)

Last time out winners by David Renham

I am going to start this blog by asking you a question. What is the first thing punters look at when they first start analysing a race? When scanning down the race card online, or in the Racing Post / newspaper, what is the first thing that catches their eye? Of course many will simply scan through the race cards looking for horses that they have been waiting to run again. Some punters will just hunt out their favourite trainer and jockey and choose their selections that way. However, I would imagine a fair percentage when settling on a race to look at in more detail will initially let their eye scan to the form figures of the horses in the race. The reason being is that the finishing positions of recent runs are easy to equate within a few seconds – for many, horses with form figures of “000” will be instantly dismissed from calculations, whereas figures of “312” would usually mean that this particular horse would need closer scrutiny during the analytical process. Of course, out of all the form figures, the last one almost invariably takes priority within the mind of the punter – well it should I suppose as it is the last known piece of the jigsaw of the horse in question. Since that last run, you, the punter, have no idea how the horse has been – whether it has been running well on the gallops; whether it has had any problems since the run, how fit it actually is etc, etc.

So recent form is important for many – the problem is of course, is that virtually everyone takes account of recent form, including those key odds compilers, and finding an “edge” using form based methods is virtually impossible. However, I always feel it is worth having a broader understanding of all areas and hence for the remainder of this article I am going to focus on last time winners to see if there is any areas where we can gain an edge.

Here is my next question for you. How often do last time out winners manage to repeat a win? 1 race in 4? 1 in 5? Well, in a recent 5 year period on the flat this is how last time out winners performed in their next race:

The answer therefore is a little worse than 1 win in every 6. Losses have amounted to around 16p for every £1 bet. Backing last time out winners “blind” therefore is not a profitable idea – no surprises there. However, as with any starting point it is worthwhile analysing different areas.

Race type LTO – in what type of race the LTO success was achieved is worth looking into. Here is a selection of some LTO race types:

As we can see there is quite a difference in terms of returns between horses that won a maiden LTO against horses that won a seller LTO – a difference of 13p in the £1 is fairly significant. Hence, when looking in more detail into LTO winners, those that won a maiden LTO deserve much greater consideration than those that won a seller LTO. Meanwhile LTO Group winners have the best strike rate, but the market seems to account for that.

Days since LTO win – the perception is that a win secured more recently is better than a win secured after a decent break. Let us see look at some different time frames:

The perception in one respect is true – horses returning to the track within a week of a winning have a strike rate of better than 1 win in 5 producing losses of only 7p in the £1. However, the returns for LTO winners coming back off a break of 10 weeks or more (70+ days) also shows an improvement on the overall/average figure – losses of under 10p in the £ may be surprising. Clearly horses coming back after a long break have a lower strike rate, but the market clearly compensates for this with bigger prices.

Switching surfaces – switching from turf to all weather and vice versa occurs more regularly these days. There are far more all weather meetings during the summer months nowadays so this is an angle worth checking. Here are the stats:

Win on aw LTO; next run on turf – 299 wins from 2470 runners (SR 12.1%) for a loss of £614.18 (ROI -24.9%);

Win on aw LTO; next run on AW – 1323 wins from 6941 runners (SR 19.1%) for a loss of £1048.91 (ROI -15.1%);

Win on turf LTO; next run on aw – 199 wins from 1366 runners (SR 14.6%) for a loss of £218.18 (ROI -16%);

Win on turf LTO; next run on turf – 2558 wins from 16200 runners (SR 15.8%) for a loss of £2538.45 (ROI -15.7%).

Clearly, the horses to avoid are those that won LTO on the all weather and are switching to turf – losses of nearly 25p in the £ illustrate this.

As you can already see, as you dig deeper there is much more to think about than purely a LTO win. Would you rather back a horse that won on the all weather last time running now on turf, or would you rather back a horse that won in the past 7 days? Clearly the latter, as you would be around 18p in the £ better off doing that.

I will endeavour to look at LTO winners in more detail on the blog in due course.

The trends and statistics are based on the last 20 years to 1990. All profits and losses are quoted using £1 win stakes. ROI stands for return on investment; LTO stands for last time out; SR stands for strike rate.

2.30 Newmarket – Cheveley Park Stakes – 6f (Group 1) 2yo fillies

POSITIVE TRENDS

NEGATIVE TRENDS

GENERAL STATS

Trends analysis: An interesting set of statistics in a race that has been dominated by the top 3 in the betting. Indeed the market tends to be a very strong guide with just one genuine outsider (price 16/1+) from 80 qulaifiers managing to win. LTO winners should be noted, while horses beaten a length or more LTO should be avoided as should beaten favourites. Trainers with a fairly recent win

3.05 Newmarket – Middle Park – 6f (Group 1) 2yo colts / geldings

POSITIVE TRENDS

NEGATIVE TRENDS

GENERAL STATS

Trends analysis: The market has dominated this race with the top two in the betting providing 70% of the winners. Indeed the last 12 seasons has seen the winner priced in single figures. All the winners finished in the first three LTO so ignore any horse that did not. Not many horses come into the race having won at least three times already, but note any runners that do. Also note horses from France or Ireland that are well fancied (top 2 in the betting).