Goodwood stats update

Thursday, July 29th, 2010 at 11:23 am

In Tuesday’s blog post it was noted how well favourites do at Glorious Goodwood. First two days this year and favourites have won 6 races from 14 for a profit of £9.92 (ROI +70.8%).

All 14 races so far have been won by horses from the top 6 of the betting; horses 7th or bigger in the betting this meeting so far are 0 wins from 80.

Glorious Goodwood – some stats

Tuesday, July 27th, 2010 at 12:26 pm

Leave your comment

Glorious Goodwood 1999 to 2008 – 10 year analysis

These stats cover 10 of the last 11 meetings. Have not had time to update them with 2009 figures, but in general the stats should hold true; profits are calculated to £1 level stakes; ROI stands for return on investment (% profit).

All Races

Clear Favourites

Runners	Wins	Strike Rate (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
314	97	30.9	+£22.43	+7.1

Joint Favourites

Runners	Wins	Strike Rate (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
73	12	16.4	-£12.42	-17.0

Second Favourites

Runners	Wins	Strike Rate (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
286	50	17.5	-£30.42	-10.6

Price

Price	Runners	Wins	Strike Rate (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
Odds On	18	13	72.2	+£3.32	+18.4
Evens – 15/8	62	26	41.9	+£2.55	+4.1
2/1 – 11/4	123	32	26.0	-£14.75	-12.0
3/1 – 7/2	174	48	27.6	+£33.97	+19.5
4/1 – 9/2	193	30	15.5	-£36.00	-18.7
5/1 – 6/1	328	42	12.8	-£55.50	-16.9
13/2 – 15/2	315	37	11.7	-£21.50	-6.8
8/1 – 10/1	578	48	8.3	-£89.50	-15.5
11/1 – 14/1	690	41	5.9	-£141.00	-20.4
16/1 – 20/1	703	20	2.8	-£325.00	-46.2
22/1 – 28/1	411	4	1.0	-£304.00	-74.0
33/1 – 40/1	456	5	1.1	-£245.00	-53.7
50/1 +	399	3	0.8	-£246.00	-61.7

Glorious Goodwood seems to have a strong market bias. Favourites have an excellent record as do any runner priced 7/2 or shorter. Indeed, if you had backed all runners 7/2 or shorter in the past 10 years would have actually made a profit!

Trainers (10 or more runners) – ordered by wins

Trainers	Runners	Wins	Strike Rate (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
M Johnston	219	32	14.6	+£34.35	+15.7
D Nicholls	216	23	10.6	-£17.25	-8.0
Sir M Stoute	114	17	14.9	-£5.29	-4.6
R Hannon	278	16	5.8	-£121.67	-43.8
S Bin Suroor	63	13	20.6	+£8.01	+12.7
J H M Gosden	82	12	14.6	-£4.99	-6.1
B W Hills	164	11	6.7	-£106.72	-65.1
G A Butler	76	9	11.8	-£6.50	-8.6
A P O’Brien	59	9	15.3	-£29.60	-50.2
L M Cumani	46	9	19.6	+£2.58	+5.6
M P Tregoning	73	8	11.0	-£32.95	-45.1
P F I Cole	68	8	11.8	-£20.50	-30.1
M R Channon	186	7	3.8	-£114.25	-61.4
J L Dunlop	108	7	6.5	-£75.12	-69.6
D R C Elsworth	76	7	9.2	-£23.50	-30.9
E A L Dunlop	71	7	9.9	-£40.68	-57.3
R Charlton	43	7	16.3	+£3.83	+8.9
P W Chapple-Hyam	27	7	25.9	+£28.83	+106.8
J Noseda	39	6	15.4	-£7.17	-18.4
B J Meehan	74	5	6.8	-£38.50	-52.0
C E Brittain	57	5	8.8	+£24.75	+43.4
J G Given	34	5	14.7	+£8.50	+25.0
Mrs A J Perrett	80	4	5.0	-£46.50	-58.1
R A Fahey	43	4	9.3	+£1.00	+2.3
Sir Mark Prescott	30	4	13.3	+£0.50	+1.7
W J Haggas	33	4	12.1	+£25.25	+76.5
M A Jarvis	67	3	4.5	-£53.00	-79.1
A M Balding	59	3	5.1	-£26.00	-44.1
G L Moore	57	3	5.3	+£22.00	+38.6
A Berry	39	3	7.7	+£44.00	+112.8
M L W Bell	38	3	7.9	-£23.12	-60.8
H R A Cecil	26	3	11.5	-£5.50	-21.2
C G Cox	24	3	12.5	+£22.00	+91.7
M H Tompkins	24	3	12.5	-£2.17	-9.0
J R Fanshawe	20	3	15.0	+£2.00	+10.0
Lady Herries	11	3	27.3	+£8.00	+72.7
A P Jarvis	55	2	3.6	-£27.00	-49.1
W R Muir	55	2	3.6	-£39.50	-71.8
J M Bradley	48	2	4.2	-£37.25	-77.6
T G Mills	30	2	6.7	-£19.37	-64.6
H Morrison	27	2	7.4	-£4.00	-14.8
S Kirk	24	2	8.3	+£9.00	+37.5
P J Makin	17	2	11.8	+£1.00	+5.9
B Smart	16	2	12.5	+£10.00	+62.5
D W P Arbuthnot	13	2	15.4	+£11.00	+84.6
R M Beckett	13	2	15.4	+£28.50	+219.2
H Candy	11	2	18.2	+£1.50	+13.6
N P Littmoden	34	1	2.9	-£19.00	-55.9
T D Easterby	32	1	3.1	+£2.00	+6.3
B R Millman	28	1	3.6	-£17.00	-60.7
S Dow	21	1	4.8	-£19.00	-90.5
K R Burke	20	1	5.0	+£14.00	+70.0
J J Quinn	19	1	5.3	-£9.00	-47.4
J A Osborne	18	1	5.6	-£13.00	-72.2
R F Johnson Houghton	17	1	5.9	-£8.50	-50.0
P D Evans	16	1	6.3	+£18.00	+112.5
P R Chamings	16	1	6.3	+£5.00	+31.3
T D Barron	15	1	6.7	-£10.50	-70.0
E J O’Neill	14	1	7.1	-£1.00	-7.1
J R Best	13	1	7.7	+£13.00	+100.0
W Jarvis	12	1	8.3	-£6.50	-54.2
J R Boyle	10	1	10.0	+£0.00	+0
J S Goldie	10	1	10.0	-£2.00	-20.0
K A Ryan	44	0	0	-£44.00	-100.0
J W Hills	38	0	0	-£38.00	-100.0
B Ellison	21	0	0	-£21.00	-100.0
J Akehurst	19	0	0	-£19.00	-100.0
M Blanshard	17	0	0	-£17.00	-100.0
W J Musson	16	0	0	-£16.00	-100.0
Jamie Poulton	15	0	0	-£15.00	-100.0
J Berry	13	0	0	-£13.00	-100.0
J S Moore	13	0	0	-£13.00	-100.0
K T Ivory	13	0	0	-£13.00	-100.0
D Shaw	12	0	0	-£12.00	-100.0
J J Bridger	12	0	0	-£12.00	-100.0
B A McMahon	11	0	0	-£11.00	-100.0
Miss Gay Kelleway	11	0	0	-£11.00	-100.0
M S Saunders	10	0	0	-£10.00	-100.0
W G M Turner	10	0	0	-£10.00	-100.0

An interesting set of stats – trainers to generally keep on your side are Johnston, Bin Suroor, Cumani, Gosden, Chappell-Hyam, Charlton and Stoute. Dandy Nicholls also does well here, but you have to separate the wheat from the chaff. Top trainers that have moderate records include Hannon, Barry Hills, John Dunlop and Aidan O’Brien. Hannon, Hills and Dunlop all have poorish overall strike rates, while all four have produced significant losses. Other well known trainers to really struggle at this meeting are Michael Jarvis, Mick Channon and Amanda Perratt.

Jockeys (15 or more rides) – ordered by wins

Trainers	Runners	Wins	Strike Rate (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
L Dettori	155	21	13.5	-£60.73	-39.2
K Fallon	159	20	12.6	-£33.49	-21.1
R Hughes	173	19	11.0	-£23.42	-13.5
S Sanders	97	16	16.5	+£97.00	+100.0
J P Murtagh	80	16	20.0	+£25.72	+32.2
J Fortune	161	15	9.3	-£13.75	-8.5
R L Moore	138	13	9.4	-£33.50	-24.3
D Holland	123	13	10.6	-£13.50	-11.0
K Darley	113	12	10.6	-£34.01	-30.1
M J Kinane	79	12	15.2	-£21.29	-26.9
A Nicholls	77	11	14.3	+£50.00	+64.9
R Hills	122	10	8.2	-£71.05	-58.2
E Ahern	99	9	9.1	-£40.75	-41.2
P Robinson	84	9	10.7	-£6.25	-7.4
Martin Dwyer	147	8	5.4	-£76.00	-51.7
M Hills	119	8	6.7	-£82.62	-69.4
T Quinn	114	8	7.0	-£52.62	-46.2
J F Egan	101	8	7.9	+£19.50	+19.3
F Norton	88	8	9.1	+£71.50	+81.3
J P Spencer	60	8	13.3	+£35.25	+58.8
J Fanning	86	7	8.1	-£39.01	-45.4
K McEvoy	44	6	13.6	-£1.92	-4.4
S Drowne	104	5	4.8	-£55.00	-52.9
Pat Eddery	76	5	6.6	-£34.17	-45.0
A Munro	39	5	12.8	+£9.33	+23.9
R Ffrench	31	5	16.1	+£23.83	+76.9
J Quinn	56	4	7.1	-£17.50	-31.3
G Stevens	19	4	21.1	+£8.25	+43.4
Alex Greaves	16	4	25.0	+£7.50	+46.9
T E Durcan	70	3	4.3	-£43.00	-61.4
P Hanagan	49	3	6.1	-£12.50	-25.5
M Fenton	29	3	10.3	-£2.50	-8.6
Dane O’Neill	94	2	2.1	-£46.00	-48.9
N Callan	55	2	3.6	-£37.67	-68.5
C Catlin	49	2	4.1	-£19.00	-38.8
P Doe	37	2	5.4	-£27.00	-73.0
J Reid	30	2	6.7	-£6.50	-21.7
K Dalgleish	30	2	6.7	-£20.30	-67.7
M Roberts	27	2	7.4	-£7.50	-27.8
R Mullen	39	1	2.6	-£22.00	-56.4
P Dobbs	34	1	2.9	-£25.00	-73.5
G Duffield	31	1	3.2	-£25.00	-80.6
Craig Williams	23	1	4.3	-£6.00	-26.1
W Supple	22	1	4.5	-£19.12	-86.9
S Hitchcott	21	1	4.8	-£6.00	-28.6
J F McDonald	18	1	5.6	-£1.00	-5.6
Jim Crowley	18	1	5.6	-£7.00	-38.9
G Baker	16	1	6.3	-£4.00	-25.0
R Cochrane	15	1	6.7	-£6.50	-43.3
D Sweeney	26	0	0.0	-£26.00	-100.0
T P Queally	26	0	0.0	-£26.00	-100.0
L P Keniry	25	0	0.0	-£25.00	-100.0
A Culhane	23	0	0.0	-£23.00	-100.0
I Mongan	23	0	0.0	-£23.00	-100.0
D Kinsella	19	0	0.0	-£19.00	-100.0
J Mackay	19	0	0.0	-£19.00	-100.0
G Carter	18	0	0.0	-£18.00	-100.0
J H Bowman	18	0	0.0	-£18.00	-100.0
R Winston	18	0	0.0	-£18.00	-100.0
S Carson	18	0	0.0	-£18.00	-100.0
N Pollard	17	0	0.0	-£17.00	-100.0
P Fitzsimons	17	0	0.0	-£17.00	-100.0
A Kirby	15	0	0.0	-£15.00	-100.0

As most punters appreciate, backing jockeys is not a viable option. That is definitely the case at this meeting although Seb Sanders and Johnny Murtagh ride the course course well.

Sire stats (3 wins+ and/or 15 or more runners) – ordered by wins

Trainers	Runners	Wins	Strike Rate (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
Green Desert	62	11	17.7	+£18.43	+29.7
Selkirk	65	7	10.8	-£22.80	-35.1
Indian Ridge	63	7	11.1	-£10.50	-16.7
Pivotal	52	7	13.5	-£2.50	-4.8
Cape Cross	41	6	14.6	-£0.17	-0.4
Galileo	19	6	31.6	+£18.08	+95.2
Night Shift	74	5	6.8	-£2.50	-3.4
Cadeaux Genereux	67	5	7.5	-£38.37	-57.3
Danehill	57	5	8.8	-£29.64	-52.0
Sadler’s Wells	52	5	9.6	-£32.99	-63.4
Dr Fong	30	5	16.7	+£43.50	+145.0
Rainbow Quest	29	5	17.2	+£17.25	+59.5
Magic Ring	28	5	17.9	+£0.25	+0.9
Mujtahid	20	5	25.0	+£10.00	+50.0
Storm Cat	18	5	27.8	+£22.60	+125.6
Grand Lodge	50	4	8.0	-£1.25	-2.5
Royal Applause	47	4	8.5	-£26.25	-55.9
Compton Place	45	4	8.9	-£13.00	-28.9
Machiavellian	45	4	8.9	-£18.00	-40.0
Unfuwain	29	4	13.8	+£4.25	+14.7
Alhaarth	21	4	19.0	+£0.78	+3.7
Zafonic	43	3	7.0	-£33.00	-76.7
Piccolo	40	3	7.5	-£12.50	-31.3
Common Grounds	34	3	8.8	-£7.50	-22.1
Efisio	30	3	10.0	+£1.00	+3.3
Mark Of Esteem	29	3	10.3	-£9.00	-31.0
Polish Precedent	27	3	11.1	-£7.50	-27.8
Kingmambo	26	3	11.5	-£19.09	-73.4
Robellino	25	3	12.0	+£0.50	+2.0
Diktat	24	3	12.5	+£28.00	+116.7
Desert Prince	22	3	13.6	+£0.38	+1.7
Perugino	21	3	14.3	+£0.75	+3.6
Red Ransom	21	3	14.3	-£11.00	-52.4
Rahy	17	3	17.6	+£3.11	+18.3
Orpen	14	3	21.4	+£7.25	+51.8
Eagle Eyed	13	3	23.1	+£7.50	+57.7
Lion Cavern	12	3	25.0	+£14.75	+122.9
Distant View	10	3	30.0	+£0.00	+0
Kahyasi	10	3	30.0	+£7.88	+78.8
Mujadil	40	2	5.0	-£11.00	-27.5
In The Wings	39	2	5.1	-£31.75	-81.4
Halling	34	2	5.9	+£21.00	+61.8
Marju	31	2	6.5	-£18.00	-58.1
Royal Academy	30	2	6.7	-£19.00	-63.3
Dansili	28	2	7.1	-£13.00	-46.4
Darshaan	28	2	7.1	-£13.50	-48.2
Montjeu	27	2	7.4	-£5.00	-18.5
Wolfhound	24	2	8.3	+£4.50	+18.8
Hernando	21	2	9.5	+£21.00	+100.0
Pursuit Of Love	21	2	9.5	-£12.00	-57.1
Bertolini	19	2	10.5	-£0.50	-2.6
Averti	17	2	11.8	-£3.50	-20.6
Deploy	17	2	11.8	+£4.00	+23.5
Diesis	17	2	11.8	+£4.50	+26.5
Paris House	17	2	11.8	-£2.00	-11.8
Fantastic Light	16	2	12.5	-£6.00	-37.5
Bluebird	15	2	13.3	+£0.50	+3.3
Barathea	54	1	1.9	-£47.00	-87.0
Tagula	41	1	2.4	-£20.00	-48.8
Danehill Dancer	40	1	2.5	-£37.37	-93.4
Alzao	31	1	3.2	-£27.75	-89.5
Primo Dominie	31	1	3.2	-£16.00	-51.6
Polar Falcon	26	1	3.8	-£21.67	-83.3
Singspiel	26	1	3.8	-£17.00	-65.4
Fasliyev	23	1	4.3	-£20.00	-87.0
Puissance	23	1	4.3	+£28.00	+121.7
Beveled	22	1	4.5	-£7.00	-31.8
Brief Truce	19	1	5.3	-£9.00	-47.4
King’s Best	18	1	5.6	-£14.00	-77.8
Namaqualand	17	1	5.9	-£7.00	-41.2
Nashwan	17	1	5.9	-£13.75	-80.9
Prince Sabo	17	1	5.9	-£6.00	-35.3
Distant Relative	16	1	6.3	+£18.00	112.5
Intikhab	15	1	6.7	-£12.12	-80.8
Lake Coniston	15	1	6.7	+£4.00	+26.7
Oasis Dream	15	1	6.7	-£12.00	-80.0
Inchinor	26	0	0	-£26.00	-100.0
Mtoto	23	0	0	-£23.00	-100.0
Sri Pekan	21	0	0	-£21.00	-100.0
Fayruz	20	0	0	-£20.00	-100.0
Caerleon	18	0	0	-£18.00	-100.0
Warning	18	0	0	-£18.00	-100.0
Emarati	17	0	0	-£17.00	-100.0
Foxhound	17	0	0	-£17.00	-100.0
Namid	17	0	0	-£17.00	-100.0
Komaite	16	0	0	-£16.00	-100.0
Lear Fan	16	0	0	-£16.00	-100.0
Trans Island	16	0	0	-£16.00	-100.0
Fairy King	15	0	0	-£15.00	-100.0

Back next week

Thursday, July 22nd, 2010 at 7:21 pm

Leave your comment

Have been busily researching for Goodwood and now having the weekend off so will be posting on the blog next week again.

Some Horse Racing Stats for Saturday

Saturday, July 17th, 2010 at 11:44 am

Leave your comment

Saturday stats

Best races for favourites:

Newmarket 1.55

Newbury 2.45, 5.05

Haydock 6.40

Lingfield 6.50, 7.20, 7.50

In running notes

Horses I expect to trade lower “in running” – offering either free bets nothing or arbing opportunities to win money whatever the result:

3.25 Ripon Templetuohy Max

5.15 Newmarket Sutton Veny

6.50 Lingfield Sermons Mount

8.10 Haydock Welsh Emperor

Racing Trends Daily Service on fire!

Saturday, July 17th, 2010 at 11:30 am

Leave your comment

FRIDAY REVIEW

Thought I would post a review of my daily racing service – www.racingtrends.co.uk

You get up to three daily e mails – one flat; one National Hunt; one looking at all age handicap sprints.

It was an excellent day for the sprint analysis on Friday:

The two front runners flagged up did us traders proud:

Taurus Twins Betfair SP was 45.32 and traded at 10.0 in running – would have traded even lower if he had not been drawn high.

Blessed Place Betfair SP was 14.28 and WON.

Also in the Hamilton 7.45 I mentioned three horses that were each way value – Lowdown WON at 20/1 and Damika was 2^nd at 33/1. The straight forecast paid a HUGE £546.39 and the Exacta an even bigger £776.50 (for a £1 stake).

In the main flat message the positive stats produced 4 winners and several near misses including 2^nd at 16/1 and a 3^rd at 25/1. All positive stats were as follows:

2.00 Newbury - Celebrity WON 9/2

2.45 Nottingham - Gulbank 12^th 13/2

3.20 Nottingham - Krypton Factor 2^nd 13/8

3.30 Haydock - Gramercy WON 6/4

3.45 Newbury – Madhaaq WON 7/1

4.05 Haydock - Bowdler’s Magic 2^nd 10/11

4.05 Haydock - Comedy Act WON 4/1

5.40 Nottingham - Lady Chaparral 3^rd 25/1

5.50 Newmarket – Valmari non runner

6.55 Newmarket - Right Grand 2^nd 16/1

7.55 Newmarket – Munsarim 5^th 9/1

8.20 Hamilton - Mister Angry 4^th 5/2

8.30 Newmarket - Azimuth 3^rd 3/1

8.30 Newmarket - Forest Runner 2^nd 7/2

There are two negative stat sections in the main message too, and all 9 negative stats / poor LTO 1^st stats that qualified all lost. Indeed even the ones that did not qualify on price stipulation also lost.

For those interested in joining there is a link on this page or you can go via this link:

http://www.racingtrends.co.uk/join.php

Saturday horse racing stats

Saturday, July 10th, 2010 at 3:58 pm

Leave your comment

Some stats for tonight: 3 horses to AVOID / LAY

NEGATIVE STATS

5.30 Nottingham – Sacrilege

6.45 Salisbury – Pragmatist

8.25 Salisbury – Shy

All have poor stats.

Moving onto Trainers in form with runners tonight:

Name Engagements

J C Fox Sali 6.45

R Charlton Sali 7.20, Sali 8.55

A C Whillans Hami 6.30, Hami 8.40

J Noseda Sali 7.50

Micky Hammond Hami 8.40

T D Barron Hami 7.00

J L Dunlop Sali 6.15, Sali 7.20, Sali 7.20, Sali 7.50

L M Cumani Sali 7.50

Friday 20 year trends

Friday, July 9th, 2010 at 2:08 pm

Leave your comment

2.35 Newmarket – 32red Trophy (Bunbury Cup) – 7f (Class 2 handicap) 3yo+

NB. There was a dead-heat in 2002 (so we have 21 winners).

POSITIVE TRENDS

Days since last run: 20 of the last 21 winners had their last run within 31 days.

Market: Horses 4^th to 6^th in the betting have provided 8 winners from 69 for a profit of £29.00 (ROI +42.0%).

Price: Horses priced between 10/1 and 16/1 have provided 12 of the winners. Backing all runners in this price bracket would have actually made you a profit of £25.00 (ROI +17.4%).

Distance winners: 17 of the last 21 winners had won over 7 furlongs.

C&D winners: Course and distance winners have won 6 races from 59 qualifiers for a profit of £21.00 (ROI +35.6%).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price 25/1+: Horses priced 25/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 109 qualifiers for a loss of £83.00 (ROI -76.1%).

Draw: Horses drawn in the middle have been at a disadvantage in recent years. In the last 15 years, draws 7 to 13 have provided just 1 winner.

Position LTO: Horses that won LTO have provided only 3 winners from 64 qualifiers.

Weight: The bottom 4 in the weights have provided only 2 winners from 93 runners for a loss of £65.00 (ROI -69.9%).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 3 wins from 24 for a loss of £5.50 (ROI -22.9%).

Fate of the favs: 9, 2, 20, 3, 7, 9, 4, 9, 5, 1/3, 10/11, 11, 1, 1, 3/16, 2, 13, 13/17, 11, 2

LTO course: 11 of the last 21 winners ran at Ascot LTO and backing all runners would have seen you break even.

Weight: Horses carrying more weight than they did in their previous race have won 16 races from 172 qualifiers (SR 9.3%); horses carrying the same weight or less than they did last time have won 5 races from 209 qualifiers (SR 2.4%).

Age: 3yos have provided 3 winners from 35 (SR 8.6%); 4yos have provided 9 winners from 159 (SR 5.7%); 5yos have provided 3 winners from 89 (SR 3.4%); 6yos have provided 3 winners from 59 (SR 5.1%); 7yos+ have provided 3 winners from 41 (SR 7.3%).

Trends analysis: The best starting point is to look for distance winners that have run within the last month. From there the value has been with runners priced between 10/1 and 16/1. The bottom four in the weights have a poor record as do outsiders priced 25/1 or bigger. From an age perspective there are no significant trends. An interesting trend to keep an eye on is the one that shows horses carrying more weight than their last race have done significantly better than those carrying the same weight or less. In terms of the draw, in recent years middle draws have struggled badly and occasionally you do get a strong bias to either high or low draws. For example in 2003 low draws dominated with the first four home drawn 2, 3 6 and 1; while 2006 high draws dominated with the first four home drawn 14, 17, 18 and 15.

3.10 Newmarket – July Cup – 6f (Group 1) 3yo+

POSITIVE TRENDS

LTO course: 15 of the last 20 winners ran at Ascot LTO showing a profit of £32.63 (ROI +20.0%).

LTO distance: Horses stepping up in distance from 5f have recorded 7 wins from 67 qualifiers for a profit of £43.50 (ROI +64.9%).

Days since last run: 17 of the last 20 winners had their last run between 16 and 31 days. Indeed 12 of the last 13 winners had a break of between 19 and 26 days.

Draw: Higher draws have had an advantage in bigger fields. Since 1998 there have been 9 races with 15 or more runners with the following draw winners – 16 of 18, 15 of 15, 10 of 19, 18 of 20, 11 of 16, 2 of 15, 19 of 18, 6 of 17, and 18 of 17.

Trainers: Aidan O’Brien has won the race twice as has Hughie Morrison.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Position LTO: Horses that won LTO have provided 6 winners from 64 qualifiers but they have produced a loss of £27.75 (ROI -43.4%).

Career Starts: Horses with 21 or more career starts have won just 1 race from 46 qualifiers for a loss of £35.00 (ROI -76.1%).

LTO Class: Horses that ran below Group class LTO have provided 1 winner from 36 for a loss of £30.50 (ROI -84.7%).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 5 wins from 21 for a loss of 87 pence.

Fate of the favs: 3, 3, 3, 2, 8, 1, 6, 2, 1, 7, 1, 1, 3, 2, 19, 4/13, 7, 6, 1, 10

Market: The top 3 in the betting have provided 11 of the last 20 winners (top 5 have provided 15).

Age: 3yos have provided 8 winners from 92 (SR 8.7%); 4yos have provided 6 winners from 86 (SR 7.0%); 5yos have provided 5 winners from 47 (SR 10.6%); 6yos+ have provided 1 winner from 39 (SR 2.6%).

Trends analysis: An interesting set of statistics in a race that is not totally dominated by the market. The top 3 in the market have provided 55% of the winners, but that needs to be compared with the overall figure for Group 1s which sees the top 3 in the market providing over 70% of the winners. In order to narrow down the candidates it is best to focus on horses that have run for between 16 and 31 days, especially if they have run at Royal Ascot. From ignore any horse that had run LTO outside Group class even though Sakhee’s Secret broke that trend three years ago in 2007. In terms of age it is best to concentrate on 3 to 5yos although they do provide the majority of the runners. Finally a higher draw has been best in big fields in recent years.