Best races for Favourites on Weds according to the stats:
2.40, 3.40 Worcester
3.20, 4.50 Perth
6.50 Kempton
7.40 Chepstow
Poor value winners LTO (horses to be against)
3.30 Catterick – Ryedane
8.40 Chepstow – Duneen Dream
7.20 Kempton – Boomtown Kat
Best races for favourites
Newmarket 1.45
Windsor 2.25
Newcastle 5.20
Doncaster 6.40; 8.15
Lingfield 7.25
Draw biases today
Best races for front runners
Chester 5f handicap (4.20)
Newmarket 7f handicap (5.00)
Windsor 1m handicap (5.05)
Lingfield 7f handicap (6.50)
Three against the field
7.20 Chepstow – Comptonspirit; Liel; Mazzola
Some decent trainer stats for today
4.30 Newmarket – Liberty Cap: J Gosden – 2yo maiden races at Newmarket; top 4 in the betting SR 26.8% ROI +42.3%
4.30 Newmarket – Riot Police: J Gosden – 2yo maiden races at Newmarket; top 4 in the betting SR 26.8% ROI +42.3%
5.05 Newmarket – Ertikaan **: M Jarvis – 3yos in non handicaps NOT Group/Listed class; top 5 in the betting SR 28.7%; ROI +23.7%
7.20 Lingfield – Tell Halaf: J Spencer riding for M Bell; 2 and 3yos; must be top 3 in the betting; SR 30.9%; ROI +26%
8.35 Haydock – Thabit: M Jarvis – horses off the track for more than 6 months running in a maiden race SR 28%; ROI +69.2%
3.50 Ascot – Coronation Stakes (1 mile – Group 1) 3yo fillies
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 9 out of the 24 favourites have won showing a level stakes profit of £8.30 (ROI +34.6%). |
| Market: The top two in the betting have provided 14 of the last 20 winners. |
| LTO class: 15 of the last 20 winners ran in a Group 1 race LTO. |
| LTO distance: 18 of the last 20 winners raced over 1 mile LTO. |
| Breeding: 9 of the last 14 winners have been British bred. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses priced 10/1 or bigger have produced just 2 winners from 103 runners. |
GENERAL STATS
| Trainers: Trainers from Ireland and France have provided 8 winners from 52 runners (SR 15.4%); trainers from Newmarket have provided 8 winners from 78 (SR 10.3%). Combining all other training centres has seen 4 wins from 62 (SR 6.5%). |
| Trends Summary: Favourites have an outstanding record in this race as do second favourites. Horses that raced in Group 1 company LTO have a good record especially if racing over a mile LTO. British bred runners have dominated the race in recent years although not last year. |
2.30 – Artic Feeling, Dinkum Diamond, Al Aasifh
3.05 – Hibaayeb WON 4-1, Eldalil 2nd 12/1, Gallic Star 3rd 16/1
3.50 – Ask, Kasbah Bliss, Darley Sun
4.25 – High Twelve, Balducci, Hypnotized
5.00 – Fencing Master, Quadrille 2nd 4/1, Wigmore Hall 3rd 12/1
5.35 – Dandino WON 7/1, Berling, Bay Willow 4th 10/1
2 winners and a full house (1-2-3) in the second race. For the record the tricast paid £695.81 for a £1 stake in the 3.05; the trifecta paid a little better at £741.70.
2.30 – Artic Feeling, Dinkum Diamond, Al Aasifh
3.05 – Hibaayeb, Eldalil, Gallic Star
3.50 – Ask, Kasbah Bliss, Darley Sun
4.25 – High Twelve, Balducci, Hypnotized
5.00 – Fencing Master, Quadrille, Wigmore Hall
5.35 – Dandino, Berling, Bay Willow
Just the one winner which was disappointing but we had 4 seconds (13/2 twice, 11/2 and 7/2) while all races saw at least one of the selections placed. Indeed we had 1st and 2nd in the third race.
3.50 – Ascot Gold Cup (2½ miles – Group 1)
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: 16 of the last 20 winners came from the top five in the betting. |
| Position LTO: 13 of the last 20 winners had won their most recent race. |
| Proven Class: The last 9 renewals has seen the winner having previously won at either Group 1 or Group 2 level. |
| Course winners: Previous course winners have a good record in this event with 11 winners from 59 runners for a profit of £20.11 (ROI +34.1%). |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: There have been 0 wins from 45 qualifiers for horses priced 33/1 or bigger. |
| Breeding: American breds have provided 23 consecutive horses that have failed to place since 1994. |
GENERAL STATS
| Top 2 in betting: 11 of the 20 races have been won by one of the two market leaders. Backing all such runners would have produced a small loss of £3.89 (ROI -9.5%). |
| Age: 4 year olds have won 7 races from 86 runners (SR 8.1%); 5 year olds have won from 3 from 64 runners (SR 4.7%); 6 year olds have an excellent record with 7 wins from 34 runners (SR 20.6%) for a level stakes profit of 38.5pts (ROI +113.2%); 7 year olds plus have won 3 from 40 runners (SR 7.5%). |
| Trends Summary: The race tends to be market driven, while recent form seems important with 13 last time out winners going on to win this race. Winning form at Group 1 or 2 level has been an important trend in recent years, while course winners merit close scrutiny; especially past winners – since 1989 there have been 3 horses that have managed to win the race twice, and one horse Yeats who has won the race four times. |
4.25 – Britannia Stakes (1 mile – handicap) 3yo
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 5 out of the 25 favourites have won showing a level stakes profit of £8.50 (ROI +34%). |
| Market: 12 of the last 20 winners came from the top 5 in the betting. |
| Position LTO: 19 of the last 20 winners finished in the first 5 LTO (8 won; 16 in first three). |
| Trainers: John Gosden won the race 4 times between 1996 and 2001. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: There has been 2 wins from 215 qualifiers for horses priced 33/1 or bigger. |
| Weight: Horses from the top 4 in the weights have provided 2 winners from 93 runners. |
| Price LTO: Horses not fancied in their last race (16/1 or bigger) have produced just 1 winner from 91 runners. |
| Lifetime starts : Horses that have had 7 or more career starts have won just 4 races from 212 runners for a loss of £133.00 (ROI -62.7%). |
| Trends Summary: It is best to focus on horses that finished in the first 5 LTO, and ideally horses in the top 5 of the betting. Indeed just focusing on these horses would have seen you back the winner in 60% of the races from only 18% of the total number of runners. Looking at LTO price has been a useful trends in the past with horses priced 16/1 or bigger LTO having a particularly poor record. Relatively lightly raced horses have traditionally done best although in 3 of the last 7 renewals a horse having 7 or more lifetime starts has been successful. |
Weds – 3 against the field
2.30 - Shakespearean, Free Judgement, Red Jazz
3.05 – Antara, Sahpresa, Spacious
3.50 – Twice Over, Shalanaya, Byword
4.25 – Fareer, Tryst, Docofthebay
5.00 – Swiss Dream, Meow, Moonlit Garden
5.35 – Safina, Za Za Zoom, Song of My Heart
If you have not already done so I suggest you give yourself more odds picking options and open an account with the bookmakers below.
