One aspect of my daily Racing Trends service (www.racingtrends.co.uk) is a sprint message. Here is today’s sprint message as a freebie.  

Sprint Analysis for Sat 28 Aug 2010

Column explanation:

Horse – name of horse.

D – draw position.

OR – official handicap mark (official rating).

P – pace figure (same calculated pace figure you see in the main message).

Overall – stands for career record on the flat – the first figure is the career win percentage;

the figure in brackets in the number of career runs.

Course – stands for course record – same idea as before with the first figure being the course win percentage

for each horse; the figure in brackets in the number of course runs.

Distance – stands for distance record (in this case over 5f) – same idea as before with the first figure being

the distance win percentage for each horse; the figure in brackets in the number of runs over today’s distance.

High 12m OR – this column relates to the last 12 months and the best performances from each horse in

terms of official handicap mark (OR). The best winning performance would be shown; likewise the best placed

performance would be shown.

HC Band – this column relates to a horses performance in the relevant class of race.

DSLR Form – days since last run

DSLR – this column relates to a horses performance compared with the days since it has last run (DSLR). I have

grouped together the following: 1 to 4 days; 5 to 10 days; 11 to 21 days; 22 to 35 days; 36 to 60 days; 61 or more

days.

Beverley  4:05PM (5f)

Conclusion: From the front end of the market, Caranbola looks likely to go very close on a course he likes. Of the outsiders I have had a small nibble on Bet 365 at 33/1 each way on Wicked Wilma.

Newmarket  4:30PM (5f)

Conclusion: Billy Red looks the pace option here for “in running” traders, although Bel Cantor and Sir Geoffrey can both lead.

Goodwood  4:50PM (6f)

Conclusion: trappy race which I will swerve.

Redcar  7:50PM (6f)

Conclusion: not a race to get heavily involved in but Elkhorn goes well here and he would my each way choice to small stakes.

One of the most successful systems on Punter Profits, the Market Bias system nailed a winner today at 65.81 Betfair SP. It even trade at 130.0 “in running”.

£3 for 3 weeks? Pretty good value I think.

Some trainer stats to help you at Bath tonight

Bath trainer stats ALL RACES 2005- 2009 (ordered by strike rate – min 3 runs or 1 win)

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After a really busy week, I have at last got some time to share my views on the racing today. The first race I want to look at is the 2.40 at Sandown. The biggest disappointment about this race is that from the 15 runners declared only 12 are left in. Let us hope we do not lose any more as I’m hoping to make use of the draw bias, or at least potential draw bias. High draws tend to have a very good edge when the sprint track is at full width, and that is the case today. The horse I feel is the best value in the race is Gwilym. He is a best priced 12/1 with bet 365 but is 11/1 generally. He has a good record at Sandown with one win one second and two thirds from seven starts. Admittedly, he is on a three pound higher mark than he has ever won off, but I’m hoping that the draw will be enough for him to find that bit extra. He comes here after a short break of just four days and it is interesting to note that when he won at Windsor in June he had run two days previously. He has enough early pace to take advantage of his good draw so although he may not lead I’m expecting him to be in a good position. Going back to his record at Sandown he has never been beaten by more than three lengths, and he has been placed twice of this current mark of 72. It is a competitive race with the likes of The Wee Chief, Efistorm and Grudge, but at the double-figure price he definitely merits interest.

The Nunthorpe stakes (3.25 at York) looks to have plenty of dead wood in it. Star Spangled Banner is the obvious one and is currently a best priced 2/1. Rated 121, he is the highest rated horse in the field. However, I am keen to take him on at the prices and my two against him are going to be Kingsgate Native and Stone of Folca. Kingsgate Native was favourite for this race last year but could only finish sixth and the biggest problem about this horse is he is consistency or should I say lack of consistency! He was impressive in the Temple stakes at Haydock back in May, but has been below par in his two subsequent runs at Ascot and Newmarket. He is a best priced 8/1 and if he is at the top of his game that is going to look a very big price indeed. Stone of Folca gets lumps of weight being a two-year-old and his trainer John Best won this race with the aforementioned Kingsgate native when he was at two-year-old. I think there is some value at around 12/1 especially if he settles better than he did at Goodwood when second in the Molecomb. I will have a little ‘dig’ on him each way.

COURSE FAVOURITE STATS FLAT

Doncaster favourites

Newmarket favourites

Ripon favourites

DRAW SECTION – the stats are collated from studying 10+ runner handicaps. Each race is split into three – a top third of the draw, a middle third of the draw and a bottom third of the draw.

Doncaster 5f (4.35) low draws tend to get stuck out mid track and they seem to be at a disadvantage.

Lingfield 6f (7.30) high draws have a significant edge here which strengthens on fast ground. Even in this smallish field the higher draw the better.

Ripon 6f (3.30) when there are 15 or more runners, high draws tend to do best unless the ground is fast. The softer the better for higher draws.

Ripon 1m (5.15) high draws have a decent edge here.

I always enjoy big handicap sprints and we have another of those today in the Great St Wilfrid at Ripon. In recent years this race has been dominated by higher drawn horses and by horses that race close to or up with the pace. The recent rain that the course has had should ensure that higher draws once again holds away. Advanced drawn 17, and ridden by the extremely capable claimer Amy Ryan is my idea of the value bet in the race. The earlier prices of 20s plus have gone but at around 16/1 the horse still rates good each way value as long as the least 16 runners go to post. Tajneed is a hot favourite and cannot be left out of calculations. Drawn 20, winner of the race two years ago, and trained by the sprint king Dandy Nicholls, he has everything in his favour. However, at around 11/4 the price is mighty tight. Of the lower drawn runners, I am hoping for a good run from my old friend Fullandby, but I feel that the draw will be the killer here. I expect the horse will win a decent handicap in the autumn so it may not be a bad thing if he is beaten by the draw today because that might help his price in the future. All in all therefore, it is Advanced for me each way, with a saver on Tajneed.

There is another competitive sprint handicap at Doncaster. The 4.35 is currently 7.6 the field on Betfair. Indeed, 10 of the 12 runners are priced between 7.6 and 14.5. There is a good pace amongst the higher draws with Nickel and Silver and Le Toreador both front runners. Doncaster though, does not really favour front runners even at this trip and hence I would be looking to trade out “in running” if backing either or both of them. All in all this looks a race to watch rather than bet.

Good results on Thursday from trainer Mark Johnston (having written this : “For those of you who are a fan of following trainers, perhaps Mark Johnston is the man today at Beverley. Since 2005 he has saddled 50 winners from 228 runners at the course. Backing all runners would have yielded a small 5% profit. He runs three horses at the course today, of which two have strong stats. Always Dixie and Rawnaq are the two horses in question running in the 2.10 and 3.50 respectively. In fact, Mark Johnston could have a good day as the statistics for some of his other horses are also strong.”) - he had 4 winners from 8 on the day including Always Dixie (won 8/1; early price 12/1). Other winners were priced 7/2, 7/2 and 5/2 and he had a second as well.

In terms of in running opportunities today Princess Charlmane looks interesting (3.15 Beverley). Her recent form including her two runs this season, means that she’s going to start a big price. She usually forces the pace from the front and hopefully she can stay ahead long enough to trade much lower. A year ago she won a handicap at Musselburgh off a mark of 53 and although she is one pound out of the weights today she is well handicapped on that form. She is currently trading at 55 is on the exchanges, which gives plenty of scope for trading in running/arbing.