Wednesday, March 20th, 2013 at
11:48 am
Over the past ten years I have explored pace and running styles in great depth. The reason for this is simple – I believe this is an area where hard work and research can still gain you a betting edge over the majority of punters.
I have just created a new page explaining more about what page figures are and how they can be used.
See here ==> Horse Racing Pace Figures
Saturday, March 9th, 2013 at
1:58 pm
Free pdf download available detailing ten year trends for several Cheltenham Festival 2013 races
Go to
http://www.racingtrends.co.uk/cheltenham-festival-stats.php
Friday, October 26th, 2012 at
3:55 pm
4.10 Doncaster – Park Hill (Doncaster) Stakes – Listed (6f) 2yo
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 5 winning favourites from 14 and backing all selections would have produced a profit of £3.46 (ROI +24.7%). |
| Price: Horses priced 11/1 or shorter have provided 9 of the last 10 winners. |
| LTO favourite: 5 of the last 10 winners were favourite LTO. |
| LTO Price: 8 of the last 10 winners had an SP of 8/1 or less on their last start. |
| Days since last run: 9 of the last 10 winners had run within the past 24 days. |
| Position LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners won LTO. Backing all LTO winners would have produced a profit of £5.13 (ROI +16.5%). |
| Trainers: 2 winners a piece for Brian Meehan and Mark Johnston. |
| Distance LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners raced over 6f LTO. |
| Course LTO: Horses that raced at York LTO have produced 5 winners from 17 for a small profit of £2.13 (ROI +12.5%). |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Female runners: Just 1 win from 19 for fillies for a loss of £16.50 (ROI -86.8%). |
GENERAL STATS
| Breeding: British bred runners have provided 5 winners from 47 (SR 10.6%); Irish bred runners have provided 4 winners from 37 (SR 10.8); US bred runners have 1 winner from 11 (SR 9.1%); other countries combined are 0 from q (SR 0%). |
Trends analysis: This race has plenty of positive trends. Favourites have a good record as do LTO favourites and in general the market has got this race right – 9 winners priced 11/1 or shorter and just one big shock at 50/1 (Imperial Guest in 2008). Horses that ran over 6f LTO do have an edge winning 90% of the races from 65% of the total runners. LTO winners also should be noted. Both Brian Meehan and Mark Johnston have been successful in the race twice (Johnston also won it in 2001).
Friday, July 20th, 2012 at
10:21 am
For members of www.racingtrends.co.uk alongside the daily e mails of racing information they also get 10 year trnds for big meetings and big races. Saturday is a big day at Ascot and here are the 3 races my members have been sent.
1.35 Ascot – Longines Handicap – 7f (class 3 handicap) 3yo+
POSITIVE TRENDS
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Price: Horses priced between 9/1 and 20/1 have provided 8 of the last 10 winners.
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Position LTO: Horses that finished 3rd to 6th LTO have provided 9 of the last 10 winners.
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Days since last run: 7 of the last 10 winners had raced within the last 17 days.
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Price LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners were priced 9/1 or bigger LTO.
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Jockeys: Miss S Brotherton has won the race twice and been placed on one other occasion.
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NEGATIVE TRENDS
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Favourites (inc. joints): 0 wins from 13.
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Market: Just 1 win from 32 for horses from the top three of the betting.
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Weight rank: Horses from the top 8 of the weights have provided just 3 winners from 82 for a loss of £50.00 (ROI -61%).
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Days since last run: Horses off the track for over 5 weeks have provided 0 winners from 32 runners.
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Position LTO: Horses that won or finished 2nd LTO have provided 0 winners from 49.
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LTO race: 22 horses raced in a non handicap LTO and all have lost.
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GENERAL STATS
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Age: 3yos have provided 0 winners from 17 (SR 0%); 4yos have provided 6 winners from 59 (SR 10.2%); 5yos have provided 2 winners from 47 (SR 4.3%); 6yos+ have provided 2 winners from 84 (SR 2.4%).
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Trends analysis: In recent years it has been worthwhile to look for horses priced 9/1 to 20/1 as they have provided 8 of the last 10 winners. Indeed you could have made a profit by backing all runners in this price bracket. The top three in the betting have a dreadful record and there has been value to look beyond these runners. Last time out winners / runners up also have performed poorly with no success from 49 runners in the past 10 renewals. 4 year olds have the best record age wise, while horses aged 6 or older look worth avoiding. All in all this is a typically open ladies’ handicap.
3.20 Ascot – Summer Mile Stakes (Group 2) 4yo+
POSITIVE TRENDS
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Market: 2nd favourites have won 5 of the last 10 races for a profit of £10.38 (ROI +94.3%).
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Market: 9 of the last 10 winners came from second to fifth in the betting.
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Position LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd LTO. Backing all 32 runner would have produced a profit of £15.63 (ROI +48.8%).
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Price: All of the last 10 winners have been priced 11/1 or shorter.
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Breeding: American bred runners are rare but they have secured 3 wins from just 13 runners for a profit of £11.00 (ROI +84.6%).
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Class LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners ran in a Group 1 race LTO.
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Price LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners were priced 9/1 or bigger LTO.
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Course LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners ran at a Grade 1 track LTO; one other winner raced at Sha Tin LTO (the main track in Hong Kong).
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Days since last run: 5 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for at least 8 weeks.
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NEGATIVE TRENDS
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Favourites: 1 win from 10 for a loss of £7.13 (ROI -71.3%).
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Price: Horses priced 12/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 34.
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GENERAL STATS
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Trainers: No trainer has won the race more than once in the past 10 years.
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Age: 4yos have provided 5 winners from 41 (SR 12.2%); 5yos have provided 2 winners from 22 (SR 9.1%); 6yos have provided 2 winners from 12 (SR 16.7%); 7yos+ have provided 1 winner from 11 (SR 9.1%).
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Trends analysis: This race has not been a good one for favourites, although with second favourites having a good record it is probably just a statistical blip. There are several positive trends to note such as horses that ran in a Group 1 race LTO – they have provided 60% of the winners from only 28% of the total runners. Likewise horses off the track for 8 weeks or more have an excellent record – they have provided 50% of the winners from only 16% of the total runners. In terms of age 4yos have won the most races, but they have provided the most runners – essentially there seems to be no age bias.
4.35 Ascot – King George & Queen Elizabeth Stakes – 1m4f (Group 1) 3yo+
POSITIVE TRENDS
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Favourites: 6 wins from 10 for a profit of £3.97 (ROI +39.7%).
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Market: The top four in the betting have provided all of the last 10 winners.
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Price: All of the winners have been priced 13/2 or shorter.
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Price: Horses priced 5/2 or shorter have provided 6 winners from just 9 runners.
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Breeding: 9 of the last 10 winners were Irish bred.
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Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first two LTO (6 won).
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Course LTO: 4 of the last 5 winners raced at Royal Ascot LTO.
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Trainers: Sir Michael Stoute has had 3 wins, Aidan O’Brien and John Oxx 2 a piece.
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NEGATIVE TRENDS
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Price: Horses priced 7/1 or bigger have produced 0 winners from 53.
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Market: Horses 5th or higher in the betting market have provided 0 winners from 45.
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Breeding: Just 1 win from 21 for British bred runners.
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GENERAL STATS
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Age: 3yos have provided 2 winners from 10 (SR 20%); 4yos have provided 8 winners from 40 (SR 20%); 5yos+ have provided 0 winners from 35 (SR 0%).
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Trends analysis: This has been a market driven race with favourites having an excellent record, and the shorter the price the better. Horses priced 5/2 or shorter have a excellent record of 6 wins from only 9 qualifiers. Irish bred runners have done well as have Irish trainers, while horses that raced at Royal Ascot LTO have a good recent record. A win LTO has also been a positive. 4 year olds have dominated in recent years with not many 3 year olds prepared to take on their elders. 5yos have a very poor recent record.
Sunday, March 11th, 2012 at
6:35 pm
We have researched the last ten years of Cheltenham and have provided a free download highlighting key stats findings.
The free download is cool but it only covers six of the races at this years Cheltenham Festival.
A full member version is more comprehensive with 19 races examined.
But the good news is there is a free trial running over Cheltenham so you can join for a cost of £0 and read the full version of the Cheltenham Stats Report if you want it.
See ==> Cheltenham Festival Stats for both the free stats download and further free trail info.
Saturday, February 25th, 2012 at
11:06 am
4.10 Kempton – Pendil Novices Chase– 2m 4f 110yds (Grade 2)
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 5 winning favourites from 11. |
| Market: The top three in the betting has provided 9 of the last 10 winners. |
| Course LTO: 5 of the 10 winners raced at Sandown LTO from just 10 qualifiers. |
| Price: Horses priced 11/2 or shorter have produced 9 of the last 10 winners. |
| Market LTO: Horses that were in the top two in the betting LTO have provided 8 of the last 10 winners. |
| Position LTO: Horses that finished 1st LTO have provided 7 of the 10 winners. |
| Trainers: Paul Nicholls has won the race 5 times in the last 10 seasons including the 5 of the last 6 renewals. Venetia Williams has had just 2 runners and both have won. |
| Breeding: French and German breds have combined to win 6 races from 17 qualifiers producing a profit of £15.17 (ROI +89.2%). |
| Front runners: 4 wins for horses taking an early lead in the race. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses priced 6/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 26 runners for a loss of £13.00 (ROI -50%). |
| Position LTO: Horses that finished 3rd or worse LTO have provided just 1 winner from 23 for a loss of £19.50 (ROI -84.8%). |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 5 year olds have produced 1 winner from 6 qualifiers (SR 16.7%); 6 year olds
have produced 3 winners from 9 qualifiers (SR 33.3%); 7 year olds have produced
5 winners from 18 qualifiers (SR 27.8%); 8 year olds have produced 1 winner from
13 qualifiers (SR 7.7%); 9 year olds plus have produced 0 winners from 8 qualifiers
(SR 0%). |
Trends analysis: This has been a market dominated race so far with favourites having a decent record, and the top three in the betting providing all bar one of the winners. Horses that ran at Sandown LTO deserve close scrutiny as they have provided 50% of the winners from just 18% of the total runners. LTO winners have shown a profit, while Paul Nicholls has an exceptional record in recent times. In terms of age, horses aged 6 and 7 look the ones to concentrate on.
3.25 Newcastle – Eider Handicap Chase – 4m1f (Class 2)
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: Second and third favourites have provided 5 of the last 10 winners for a profit of £17.00 (ROI +73.9%). |
| Price: Horses priced 5/1 to 11/1 have provided 7 of the last 10 winners. |
| Days since last run: 6 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for 17 days or less. |
| Weight rank: 9 of the last 10 winners have come from the top 5 in the weights. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Favourites (inc. joints): There has been 1 winning favourite from 11 for a loss of £6.00 (ROI -54.6%). |
| Weight: Horses carrying 10st 10lb or less have provided 1 winner from 82 for a loss of £73.00 (ROI -89%). |
| Weight rank: Horses 6th in the weights or lower have provided 1 winner from 98 for a loss of £89.00 (ROI -90.8%). |
| Price: Horses priced 20/1 or bigger have provided 1 winner from 58 qualifiers. |
| Breeding: British bred runners have provided just 2 winners from 50. |
| Position LTO: Horses that failed to finish LTO have provided 1 winner from 26. |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 6 and 7 year olds have produced 0 winners from 12 qualifiers (SR 0%); 8 year
olds have produced 3 winners from 25 qualifiers (SR 12%); 9 year olds have
produced 4 winners from 39 qualifiers (SR 10.3%); 10 year olds have produced 2
winners from 44 qualifiers (SR 4.6%); 11 year olds plus have produced 1 winner
from 34 (SR 2.9%). |
Trends analysis: The strongest bias in this race seems to be in terms of weight carried. The top 5 in the weights have an excellent record, especially when you consider the average field size has been over 14. Favourites have struggled and the value has been with those priced 5/1 to 11/1. Age wise it looks that 8 and 9 year olds have an edge.
Saturday, January 21st, 2012 at
11:01 am
1.45 Haydock – Champion Hurdle Trial (Grade 2) – 2m
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: 7 of the last 10 winners have come from the top two in the betting. |
| Price: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 7/1 or shorter. |
| Market LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners were in the top three in the betting LTO. |
| Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO. |
| Course LTO: All of the last 10 winners raced at a Grade 1 track LTO. |
| Class LTO: 4 of the last 10 winners raced in a Grade 1 event LTO from just 11 qualifiers. Backing them all would have produced a profit of £9.00 (ROI +81.8%). |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses priced 14/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 22 (only 3 have placed). |
| Running style: No runner has managed to make all the running. |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites: There have been 4 winning favourites from 10 qualifiers showing a loss of £1.20 (ROI -12%). |
| Age: 4 year olds have produced 0 winners from 1 qualifier (SR 0%); 5 year olds have produced 2 winners from 5 qualifiers (SR 40%); 6 year olds have produced 3 winners from 15 qualifiers (SR 20%); 7 year olds have produced 1 winner from 12 qualifiers (SR 8.3%); 8 year olds have provided 1 winner from 9 qualifiers (SR 11.1%), 9 & 10 year olds have provided 3 winners from 14 qualifiers (21.4%); 11 year olds plus have provided 0 winners from 7 (SR 0%). |
| Breeding: French breds have provided 4 winners from 16 (SR 25%); British breds have provided 3 winners from 21 (SR 14.3%), Irish breds have provided 3 winners from 25 (SR 12%). |
| Trainers: No trainer has managed to win the race more than once. |
Trends analysis: The market is a decent guide with 90% of the winners priced 7/1 or shorter. A run at a Grade 1 track LTO has been key with all 10 winners sharing that stat. Horses that finished in the first three LTO are worth close scrutiny as are those that were in the top three in the betting on the most recent start. In terms of age there are no clear patterns.
3.30 Haydock – Peter Marsh Chase (Grade 2 Limited handicap) – 3m
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: Third to fifth in the betting market have provided 7 winners from 33 qualifiers for a profit of £45.00 (ROI +136.4%). |
| Price: 7 of the last 10 winners were priced between 4/1 and 8/1. |
| Recent wins: All of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last five starts. |
| Days since last run: 8 of the last 10 winners had raced within the last month. |
| Course winners: 5 of the last 10 winners had previously won at Haydock. |
| LTO course: 8 of the last 10 winners raced LTO at either Haydock or Wetherby. Backing all runners would have produced 8 winners from 28 for a profit of £52.75 (ROI +188.4%). |
| Running style: 5 of the last 10 winners have led early and made most or all of the running. |
| Trainers: Venetia Williams has saddled 2 winners and a third from 5 runners. Sue Smith has saddled two winners and 2 placed from 7. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Favourites: There has been 1 winning favourite from 10 qualifiers showing a loss of £6.75 (ROI -67.5%). |
| Breeding: French breds have a poor record in the race with just 1 success from 24 runners for a loss of £17.00 (ROI -70.8%). |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 6 year olds have produced 0 winners from 1 qualifier (SR 0%); 7 year olds have produced 0 winners from 12 qualifiers (SR 0%); 8 year olds have produced 4 winners from 22 qualifiers (SR 18.2%); 9 year olds have produced 2 winners from 24 qualifiers (SR 8.3%); 10 year olds have produced 3 wins from 17 qualifiers (SR 17.6%); 11 year olds plus have produced 1 win from 13 qualifiers (SR 7.7%). |
Trends analysis: The best starting point is to look for horses that have won at least once in their last five starts as they have provided all of the last 10 winners. In terms of price, the most successful ‘bracket’ has been between 4/1 and 8/1. Two other strong positives are horses that raced at either Haydock or Wetherby last time out, and those that have raced within the month. From a negative perspective, it seems best to avoid horses that are French bred and favourites have also struggled in recent years.
Saturday, January 7th, 2012 at
10:36 am
1.35 Sandown – 32Red Poker Juvenile Hurdle – class 4 (2m ½f)
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites: There has been 5 winning favourites from 10 and backing all selections would have produced a profit of 86 pence (ROI +8.6%). |
| Price: 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 8/1 or shorter. (N.B. the other two winners were at 50/1 and 66/1). |
| Days since last run: Horses that had last raced between 8 and 14 days previously have provided 4 of the last 10 winners from just 11 runners. |
| Position LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO. |
| Market LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners were favourite or second favourite LTO. |
| Running style: 7 of the last 10 winners raced close to or up with the pace (3 made all). |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Sex of horse: 0 wins from 13 for female runners. |
| Price LTO: Horses priced 25/1 or bigger LTO have provided 0 winners from 26. |
| Distance beaten LTO: Horses beaten 20 lengths or more LTO have provided just 1 winner from 39 qualifiers. |
GENERAL STATS
| Trainers: No trainer has saddled the winner more than once. |
Trends analysis: Favourites have a good record and despite two big priced winners the market tends to get it right. Past market data has proved useful also with 7 winners having been favourite or second favourite LTO. Good recent form is a plus with 70% of the winners having finished in the first three LTO. In terms of negatives, horses well beaten LTO have a poor record, as do female runners.
2.05 Sandown – 32Red Handicap Chase – Class 2 (2m)
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: 6 of the last 10 winners were second or third favourites. |
| Price: 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 11/2 or shorter. |
| Weight rank: 7 of the last 10 winners were 3rd to 5yh in the weights. |
| Position LTO: 4 of the last 10 winners have finished 6th or worse LTO. |
| LTO favourites: Horses that were favourite LTO have provided 5 winners from 15 for a profit of £4.25 (ROI +28.3%). |
| Distance beaten LTO: Horses beaten 20 lengths or more LTO have provided 5 winners from 22 runners for a profit of £17.25 (ROI +78.4%). |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Market: Favourites have provided 2 winners from 10 for a loss of £3.50 (ROI -35%). |
| Market: Horses 4th in the betting or bigger have provided just 2 winners from 42. |
| Headgear: 0 wins from 11 for horses wearing headgear. |
| Breeding: French bred runners have provided just 1 winner from 19 qualifiers for a loss of £15.75 (ROI -82.9%). |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 5 & 6 year olds have produced 1 winner from 2 qualifiers (SR 50%); 7 year olds have produced 0 winners from 11 qualifiers (0%); 8 year olds have produced 5 winners from 22 qualifiers (SR 22.7%); 9 year olds have produced 3 winners from 22 (SR 13.6%); 10 year olds have produced 1 winner from 17 (SR 5.9%). |
Trends analysis: this race has favoured second and third favourites, while the actual market leaders have provided poor value. LTO form has not been that important with 5 of the winners having been beaten by 20 lengths or more on their most recent outing. 7 of the last 10 winners were ranked 3rd to 5th in the weights, while in terms of age, 8 year olds have done best, with horses 10 or older having struggled.
Friday, December 30th, 2011 at
10:17 pm
3.05 Newbury – Grade 1 Challow Novices’ Hurdle – 2m5f
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 5 winning favourites from 11 qualifiers showing a profit of £1.58 (ROI +14.4%). |
| Market: 8 of the last 10 winners have been from the top two in the betting. |
| Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 7/1 or shorter. |
| Market LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners were favourite LTO. |
| Position LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners won LTO. |
| Course LTO: 5 of the last 10 winners raced at Cheltenham LTO (from only 17 qualifiers). |
| Trainers: Jonjo O’Neill has saddled 3 winners; 2 wins a piece for Paul Nicholls and Nick Williams. |
| Jockeys: 4 wins from 6 rides for Tony Mc Coy. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Market: Horses 5th or lower in the betting market have provided 0 winners from 36. |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 4 year olds have produced 2 winners from 20 qualifiers (SR 10%); 5 year olds have produced 6 winners from 31 qualifiers (SR 19.4%); 7 year olds plus have won 2 from 26 qualifiers (7.7%). |
Trends analysis: A race where positive trends are by far the strongest. Favourites have a decent record, and the market has been a good guide with all 10 winners being priced 7/1 or shorter. LTO market position has been an excellent indicator with 9 of the last 10 winners being favourite on their most recent start. To put that in perspective LTO favourites have provided 905 of the winners from only 43% of the total runners. Jonjo O’Neill has a good record in the race, as does champion jockey Ttony Mc Coy. In terms of age, 5 year olds seem to hold the edge.
Thursday, December 8th, 2011 at
10:34 am
2.00 Huntingdon – Peterborough Chase – 2 miles 4f (Grade 2)
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 5 winning favourites (including joints) from 11. |
| Market: 9 of the last 10 winners came from the top three in the betting. Indeed, 16 of the last 17 winners matched that stat. |
| Price: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 5/1 or shorter. |
| Position LTO: Horses that won LTO have provided 5 of the last 10 winners. Backing all 13 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £13.76 (ROI +105.8%). |
| Recent wins: 7 of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last four starts (that stretches to 14 out of last 17). |
| Running style: 6 wins from 10 for horses that have taken the early lead – worth noting if you play “in running”. |
| Trainers: Henrietta Knight has a remarkable record with 5 wins from 7 runners. Going back to 1998 this becomes 8 wins from 10. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses priced 11/2 or bigger have produced just 1 winner from 38 runners for a loss of £25.00 (ROI -65.8%). |
| Running style: Hold up horses have been successful just once from 22 so in play punters be wary. |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 5/6 year olds have won 3 races from 9 qualifiers (SR 33.3%); 7 year olds have won 3 races from 11 qualifiers (SR 27.3%); 8 year olds have won 1 race from 21 qualifiers (SR 4.8%); 9 year olds and older have won 3 races from 24 qualifiers (SR 12.5%). |
Trends analysis: favourites have a solid record, and it is best to concentrate on horses priced 5/1 or shorter as they have provided 9 of the last 10 winners (16 of last 17). Next stop is to see if trainer Henrietta Knight has a runner as her 5 wins from 7 is rather eye-catching! Last time out winners demand respect, while in terms of age there has been a mix of winners, with 5 and 6 year olds doing well from a handful of runners.
